Total fertility rate falls to lowest since records began in 1929

ABC NEWS (Australia)

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released the 2024 births and fertility data, showing an increase in number of births but a record low fertility rate. The data also shows people are waiting longer to have children. Demographer Liz Allen says high cost of living is driving the decline.

Transcript

00:00The total fertility rate is a more of a synthetic average that takes into account the underlying

00:11age structure of the female population. So basically the total fertility rate is an average

00:17of the number of births per woman on average if the current rates of age-specific births

00:25were to continue into the future. Right, so there's been a 1.9% increase in the number of births in the

00:33past 12 months. Is that a significant increase by comparison to previous years? Look, it's an

00:40increase. It's a slight increase. I think what is more telling at the moment is that there has been

00:47a decline in the total fertility rate. That decline, even though it is a slight decline,

00:54shows a worrying trajectory toward what is considered low fertility, ultra-low fertility.

01:02And if we get below 1.4 births per woman, and on average it's just a little over that at the

01:09moment, we get to the point of no return. So last year I said, look, it feels like we've hit rock

01:17bottom. This year it feels like we've fallen and slipped even further. Now that means some terrible

01:25things for the future. It means firstly that Aussies are unlikely to achieve their desired family size,

01:33and that's because the barriers to having a much-wanted child are just simply insurmountable. Housing affordability,

01:41economic security, gender equality and climate change are these big clustering crises that really

01:50undermine the certainty and the future of tomorrow. And they mean that together, hope really is not

01:57something that features among young people. I think a lot of that goes to my next question,

02:03because these figures are also showing an increase in the median age of parents. So people are clearly

02:10waiting a lot longer to start their families. Just take us through some of the reasons behind that.

02:17Yeah, so what happens is the older we are at which we start a family, that means that the potential

02:25window for us to have children or try to have a child is very much truncated, it's constrained. So that

02:35means that the increase in our age at birth means that we're likely to have fewer children over our

02:42life course. And of course, what's driving that? Well, we have to stay in school, that's a good thing.

02:49We then need to get a post-school qualification of some sort to then be able to establish ourselves

02:57in employment. We need to establish our career, we need to get that ever growing house deposit,

03:05to then be able to have security. And of course, that trajectory then pushes out the age at which

03:14we start a family. And so now we're looking at the prospects of later early 30s, and soon it'll be

03:22mid-30s and so on. And the later we start, the fewer our potential is. But that also takes away

03:31the choice. So on a biological level, that means that being able to fall pregnant becomes trickier

03:40and so on with time.

03:41Hmm. And where do you think medical and scientific advancements fit into some of these changes?

03:48You know, are we seeing more women freezing their eggs and or more people turning to services like IVF?

03:57Certainly, the anecdotal evidence suggests that the use of IVF and so on is increasing. But so are the

04:07coercive and kind of targeted targeting of women in particular, drawing on that fear of that

04:17biological clock running out. So we're seeing increases in egg freezing that may not actually,

04:23in the long run, aid in preparing and allowing families to have children. So we're getting to this

04:33point where science is also being used to co-opt our fear in a way. And at the heart of this,

04:40we've got to be super careful and kind of go back to the basics. Let's think about this idea that

04:48who do we want to be as a nation? We want to be a place that is supportive of families. If people choose,

04:55that choice is super important. And at the moment, that choice is being denied. We must restore hope

05:02and restore that choice. All right, ANU demographer Dr Liz Allen, thank you so much for your time this

05:09afternoon. Thank you.

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