Are aircraft carriers still the kings of the seas, or are stealthy submarines the real game-changers in modern naval warfare? In this episode of Strategic Vanguard, we explore one of the most critical debates shaping 21st-century naval power.
From the Pacific battles of World War II to the rise of nuclear submarines and today’s hypersonic missile threats, we break down the carrier versus submarine dilemma. With India facing a dual-ocean challenge in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, the question becomes urgent: Should India invest in more carriers for prestige and power projection, or prioritize submarines for stealth and survivability?
Join us as we decode history, technology, and strategy — and assess the future of naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
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#NavalPower #AircraftCarriers #Submarines #IndiaNavy #Geopolitics #StrategicVanguard #IndoPacific #MilitaryStrategy #strategicvanguardpodcast
From the Pacific battles of World War II to the rise of nuclear submarines and today’s hypersonic missile threats, we break down the carrier versus submarine dilemma. With India facing a dual-ocean challenge in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, the question becomes urgent: Should India invest in more carriers for prestige and power projection, or prioritize submarines for stealth and survivability?
Join us as we decode history, technology, and strategy — and assess the future of naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
Subscribe to Strategic Vanguard:
Our website- https://strategicvanguard.com/
Manoj Ambat’s Personal Website- https://www.manojambat.in/
Strategic Vanguard @ Youtube- https://www.youtube.com/@strategicvanguard
Join us to discuss deep in Strategic Vanguard groups : https://www.strategicvanguard.com/groups
Strategic Vanguard @ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/strategicvanguard
Strategic Vanguard @X (Formerly Twitter)- https://x.com/StrategicVangu1
Strategic Vanguard @ Instagram- https://www.instagram.com/strategicvanguard/
Strategic Vanguard @ Quora- https://strategicvanguard.quora.com/
Strategic Vanguard @ Medium: https://medium.com/@strategicvanguard1
Strategic Vanguard @ Reddit- https://www.reddit.com/r/strategicvanguard/
Strategic Vanguard@ Telegram - https://t.me/strategicvanguard
Strategic Vanguard@Tumblr: https://www.tumblr.com/blog/strategicvanguard
Strategic Vanguard@ BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/strategicvanguard.bsky.social
Strategic Vanguard@Substack- https://strategicvanguard.substack.com/
#NavalPower #AircraftCarriers #Submarines #IndiaNavy #Geopolitics #StrategicVanguard #IndoPacific #MilitaryStrategy #strategicvanguardpodcast
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00:00Before we move forward, please like and subscribe to Strategic Vanguard, and please share our
00:10videos to be updated with the latest news, reviews, and expert analysis from the world
00:16of defense and strategic affairs.
00:18Welcome to the Deep Dive.
00:19Today we're setting sail, you could say, straight into a really big debate.
00:24It's probably the most expensive, maybe the most politically charged argument in naval
00:30strategy right now.
00:31Yeah, it's that classic face-off.
00:33The aircraft carrier.
00:35Huge, visible power.
00:37Versus the submarine.
00:38Stealthy, deadly, lurking beneath the waves.
00:41Exactly.
00:42And this isn't just, you know, big ship versus quiet ship.
00:44It's way deeper than that.
00:46We're talking deterrence, cost, national pride, even survival.
00:50The analysis we're looking at today really digs into this.
00:52It covers the history, the arguments for both.
00:55And the new threats, right?
00:56The technology changing the game.
00:57Absolutely.
00:58And maybe most importantly for our discussion, how this plays out for powers like India facing
01:03really tough choices.
01:04So our mission here is to give you a clear path through this complexity.
01:08We want to figure out, are carriers these obsolete multi-billion dollar targets?
01:14Or are they still totally essential, the main tool for projecting power globally?
01:18And yeah, for countries like India, how do they square that circle?
01:21The need for prestige versus, well, hard military facts and budgets.
01:26Mm-hmm.
01:26To really get it, you need to look back a bit.
01:29See how naval power shifted in the first place.
01:32Because battleships used to be king, didn't they?
01:34Oh, absolutely.
01:34But World War II just completely rewrote the rules.
01:38Dramatically.
01:39Think about Pearl Harbor in 41.
01:41Right.
01:42And then Midway.
01:43Those weren't decided by ship cannons.
01:44No, not at all.
01:45It was aircraft.
01:46Launched from carriers.
01:47Hundreds, thousands of miles away.
01:48So the carrier essentially dethroned the battleship.
01:51Its reach was just revolutionary.
01:54But what's really interesting is that submarines were becoming just as deadly at the same time,
02:00but in a totally different way.
02:01While carriers were hitting targets over the horizon.
02:04German U-boats were causing chaos in the Atlantic.
02:07That convoy war.
02:08Britain nearly starved.
02:09It was incredibly effective.
02:11Yeah.
02:11And in the Pacific, you had U.S. submarines doing something similar, maybe less talked about.
02:15Definitely less publicized, yeah, but they were vital.
02:18Choking off Japan's supply lines, strangling their war effort.
02:22So you have these two new power players emerge simultaneously.
02:25The carrier for reach.
02:26The sub for denial.
02:29For destruction.
02:30And the Cold War kind of locked those roles in place, didn't it?
02:33It really did.
02:34The U.S. went all in on the carrier for global power projection.
02:38Need an air base anywhere fast?
02:40Send a carrier group.
02:42Right.
02:42A floating piece of sovereign territory, essentially.
02:44Well, the nuclear submarine, it took on this almost existential role.
02:49You mean the missile boats, the SSBNs.
02:51Exactly.
02:52Carrying ballistic missiles.
02:54They became the ultimate safety net.
02:56Hidden, always moving, basically untouchable.
02:58The core of the nuclear deterrent for many nations.
03:01That second strike guarantee.
03:03That's the key.
03:04Silent, deep, ensuring that even if everything else is gone, you can still hit back.
03:10Devastatingly.
03:10Okay, so if subs were that lethal back in the 40s, and they're the ultimate deterrent now,
03:15why are we still building these massive, expensive floating air bases?
03:19What's the case for the carrier today?
03:21It really boils down to two main things.
03:24Projecting power in a way nothing else can.
03:27And diplomacy.
03:28A carrier battle group offers sustained defensive power.
03:31It's a mobile air wing.
03:32You can launch complex missions far away, often without needing anyone's permission to use
03:36their bases.
03:37That independence is huge.
03:39It is.
03:39And then there's the diplomatic side.
03:42Carriers are just enormous symbols.
03:45Hard to miss.
03:45Very hard to miss.
03:47Sailing one into a contested area, say the South China Sea or near the Arabian Sea,
03:52it sends an immediate powerful message.
03:55Commitment, capability, all in one package.
03:58And we see nations really chasing that capability, right?
04:01Especially in the Indo-Pacific.
04:02Definitely.
04:03Look at India's journey.
04:04They've wanted that blue water capability for decades.
04:06Started with the first INS Vikrant back in 61.
04:09Then the Vikramaditya, and now the new homegrown INS Vikrant Commission in 2022.
04:15That's a huge statement of intent.
04:16A massive national project.
04:18And China, of course, is right there, arguably pushing even harder now.
04:22The Liaoning, Shandong, and now the Fujian.
04:24That's a serious carrier fleet they're building.
04:26They're directly aiming to challenge U.S. naval dominance.
04:30Far from their own coast.
04:31It's unambiguous.
04:32But hang on, the cost.
04:33You mentioned it earlier.
04:34The U.S. Navy figures are, what, over $13 billion just to build a new carrier?
04:39Never mind the planes, the escorts, the running costs.
04:41It's astronomical.
04:42So is that kind of money really worth it just for prestige or diplomatic signaling?
04:48Doesn't that massive cost just make the submarine look even more attractive?
04:51It absolutely strengthens the submarine argument, which is all about pragmatism.
04:56Stealth, lethality, and yes, bang for your buck, cost effectiveness.
05:00Right.
05:00The core idea being, for the price of one carrier group, mostly for showing the flag in peacetime,
05:07you could maybe get several subs designed specifically for winning a war.
05:11That's the trade-off naval planners grapple with.
05:13Nuclear attack subs, the SSNs, they patrol undetected.
05:17They don't just survive in dangerous waters.
05:19They make those waters dangerous for the enemy.
05:22Their invisibility is their strength.
05:24And they have very specific strategic uses.
05:26For India, getting the Aryant-class SSBNs online was, well, it was a game changer.
05:30A credible, survivable nuclear deterrent.
05:33A massive strategic leap, yes.
05:34But even their conventional subs, like the Scorpenes, are critical.
05:38Think about controlling choke points.
05:39Like the Malacca Strait.
05:41Exactly.
05:41Something like 40% of world trade goes through there.
05:44If you can threaten shipping in that narrow strait with a few quiet submarines,
05:49that gives you enormous leverage, doesn't it?
05:51Huge economic leverage.
05:53And that highlights the asymmetric advantage, you know?
05:55The way subs level the playing field.
05:58That's why China's investing so heavily in them alongside carriers.
06:01It's a direct counter to expensive U.S. carrier groups.
06:04And for smaller navies, Vietnam, Pakistan, Iran subs offer a credible punch without needing a superpowers budget.
06:12They can achieve sea control, maybe, but they can achieve sea denial.
06:15Make it too risky for a bigger power to operate freely.
06:18Precisely.
06:19It's a potent capability for the cost.
06:20Okay, this is where things get really dicey for the carrier advocates.
06:24The modern threats.
06:26Has technology finally made these floating cities too vulnerable?
06:29Well, the vulnerability isn't just theory anymore.
06:31It's a very real concern.
06:33Modern weapons are targeting the carrier's biggest weakness, its size and visibility.
06:37We're seeing specific weapons developed just for this.
06:41Hypersonic anti-ship missiles.
06:43Like the Chinese DF-21D, the DF-26, the carrier killers.
06:46Those are the ones causing the most sleepless nights, yes.
06:49What makes them so scary?
06:50Is it just the speed?
06:51The speed is part of it.
06:52Mach 5 or more.
06:53That cuts down reaction time dramatically.
06:55But it's also their flight path, often high, and their ability to maneuver in the final
07:00stage makes them incredibly difficult to intercept.
07:04So the nightmare scenario is a multi-billion dollar carrier packed with thousands of personnel
07:11taken out by a missile costing a fraction of that.
07:14That's the fear, that extreme asymmetry.
07:16It potentially changes the entire strategic calculation of deploying carriers close to a
07:22peer competitor.
07:23But carriers aren't undefended, surely.
07:25They have layers of protection, destroyers, cruisers, close-in weapons.
07:29They absolutely do.
07:30Very sophisticated defenses.
07:32But those defenses are designed for older threats, against coordinated volleys of hypersonic
07:37weapons.
07:37The odds of one getting through increase significantly.
07:40Plus, carriers are just hard to hide.
07:41Their electronic emissions, the air traffic, their heat signature.
07:44They stand out.
07:44They really do.
07:45And now you add other emerging threats, like drone swarms.
07:48It gets complicated fast.
07:50Whereas submarines.
07:51Submarines remain fundamentally hard to find.
07:54Anti-submarine warfare, ASW, is incredibly complex and expensive.
07:59Even the best navies struggle with it.
08:01The ocean is big and deep.
08:03So the key takeaway is that for the first time, really, since maybe World War II, a major power
08:09has developed credible, long-range conventional weapons specifically designed to neutralize
08:15the aircraft carrier.
08:16That seems to be the assessment, yes.
08:18And it forces navies to think about operating carriers much farther out, potentially reducing
08:23their immediate impact.
08:25Which brings us right back to India.
08:26Because they face this exact dilemma, but with serious budget limitations.
08:30This must be the central debate inside the Indian Navy.
08:34Oh, absolutely.
08:34It's not just a technical discussion.
08:36It's about fundamental national strategy.
08:38Do you invest in a third carrier, with all the prestige and cost that entails?
08:42Plus the escort ships, the aircraft wing.
08:44It's a huge commitment.
08:46A massive commitment.
08:47Or do you funnel those resources into more nuclear submarines?
08:50Both attack subs, the SSNs, and potentially more ballistic missile subs, the SSPNs.
08:55And the cost difference is stark, isn't it?
08:58We talked about the build cost, but the lifetime operational cost of one carrier group.
09:02Could potentially fund several next-gen nuclear attack submarines.
09:06It's a brutal trade-off.
09:08But carriers are visible.
09:09Politicians like them.
09:10They show up for disaster relief.
09:12They fly the flag.
09:13Exactly.
09:13They fulfill that political need to be seen as a major power.
09:17They deliver prestige.
09:18I see.
09:19So subs deliver, well, deterrence, survivability, especially in wartime.
09:25And for India, look at their geography.
09:27They've got Pakistan to worry about in the Arabian Sea, China's growing influence in the
09:31Bay of Bengal, plus that critical Malacca Strait access.
09:35So they need presence in multiple areas.
09:37Right.
09:37And subs are arguably better suited for controlling those strategic choke points and ensuring the
09:43nuclear deterrent remains secure, especially against a more powerful adversary like China.
09:48So the military logic might lean towards subs, but the political logic, the prestige,
09:52leans towards carriers.
09:54It's a classic guns versus butter type argument, but on a massive naval scale, signaling strength
09:59versus ensuring survival.
10:01It's tough.
10:02So looking globally, what are the trends?
10:05Is everyone facing the same dilemma?
10:08We see different approaches.
10:09The U.S. still has the biggest carrier fleet by far, but they're also investing heavily
10:14in unmanned underwater vehicles, next-gen subs.
10:18They're trying to dominate underwater, too.
10:20Doubling down, almost.
10:21In a way, yes.
10:23China, as we said, is going full steam ahead on both carriers and a huge submarine fleet.
10:28They seem determined to have it all, reflecting their ambitions.
10:32What about smaller powers or U.S. allies?
10:35Many are leaning towards submarines and anti-accessory denial systems.
10:39Think Australia, Japan.
10:40They aren't trying to build global carrier fleets.
10:43They're focusing on making their own maritime approaches very dangerous for any potential
10:47aggressor.
10:48Subs and advanced missiles fit that strategy better.
10:51So it sounds like the ideal future, if you had unlimited money, wouldn't be choosing
10:55one or the other.
10:56Probably not.
10:56The ideal, perhaps unaffordable for most, is likely a hybrid approach, integrating carriers
11:02and submarines.
11:03Carriers provide the visible power projection, the air power.
11:06And the subs provide the stealth, the sea denial, the guaranteed deterrence.
11:10Exactly.
11:10They complement each other, covering different aspects of naval power.
11:14So, summing this all up, carriers grab the headlines.
11:17They're politically potent, visually impressive, useful in peacetime.
11:21No doubt about it.
11:22They dominate the narrative.
11:23But submarines, they shape the actual outcomes in a conflict, often silently, invisibly.
11:30They're about deterrence and denial when push comes to shove.
11:34They're the hidden hand, you could say.
11:36So the real challenge for you listening to this, especially thinking about the Indo-Pacific,
11:39it's that Indian dilemma.
11:41How do you balance the visible prestige of something like the INSP grant?
11:47A magnificent ship, a symbol of national achievement.
11:50With the absolutely vital but hidden practicality and survival insurance provided by something
11:56like the Arihant-class submarines.
11:58That's the tightrope they have to walk.
11:59And maybe the ultimate test isn't about picking one.
12:02It's about finding that smart blend within your means.
12:05Because the nation that truly masters both the skies above the waves and the shadows beneath
12:10them.
12:11Well, they're the ones who likely hold the decisive edge in the very contested seas of
12:15the 21st century.
12:16Thank you for joining us on this Strategic Vanguard podcast.
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12:47and strategy.
12:48Until next time, stay informed, stay strategic.
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