00:00Speaking at a news conference on Wednesday, former Finance Minister Vishnu Danpol warned the country may be heading to the International Monetary Fund.
00:11He says he is projecting revenues of $54 billion for 2026 and adds that without the government showing clear additional revenue streams, there may be no other alternative.
00:24However, economist Dr. Valmiki Arjun sees things differently.
00:29I don't think we need to go to the IMF just yet. In fact, I recall just yesterday, one of the opposition senators indicated that, or hinted rather, that we're likely to be on the way to the IMF.
00:41But I don't agree with this whatsoever. First of all, we still have over five months of import cover.
00:49We have a healthy heritage and stabilization fund. The Economic Data Park shows it to be in the vicinity of about $6.3 billion.
00:57Dr. Arjun admits that the country's oil and gas production levels are currently lower than before, and foreign reserves have also fallen.
01:07Still, he tells the Morning Edition that while the budget is being presented against this backdrop, the focus must remain on building revenue.
01:16He says he hopes the budget would focus more on high-multiply investments, giving more priority to the areas that would provide greater optimal returns for the government and, by extension, the country.
01:30Giving more priority, for example, to capital expenditure.
01:33Over the last decade, the last administration, in my view, respectfully, would have under-budgeted the capital expenditure.
01:40It averaged about $3.75 billion per year.
01:44It ideally should have been higher because capital expenditure is that type of expenditure, for example,
01:50is where you're focusing more on boosting urban and transport infrastructure, focusing more on boosting the infrastructure and equipment at the port.
01:59He notes that there are several avenues for boosting revenue, highlighting the manufacturing sector, which he says has shown consistent growth over the past few years.
02:11He says non-energy manufacturing has performed remarkably over the last decade, growing by about 35.2 percent.
02:19Last year alone, growth was 12.2 percent, and he says in the first quarter of this year, it jumped to 19.4 percent.
02:30Dr. Arjun adds much of the success comes from food processors, who saw a staggering 74 percent growth over the decade.
02:39He is suggesting the country begins to deeper explore pharmaceuticals.
02:44We don't necessarily have the expertise to manufacture pharmaceuticals here in TNT just yet.
02:48So they bring in the finalized drug, but we do the packaging here in TNT and then export to the United States.
02:58And after a few years, we move up to the active pharmaceutical ingredient coming into Trader and Tobago,
03:04and we complete the drug here, package it, export it.
03:07And then after a few years, we will then have the expertise to manufacture the complete pharmaceutical item here in TNT,
03:14package it, and then export it to the United States and even other markets.
03:18He adds that this strategy could attract more foreign direct investment and boost the local economy.
03:25Nicole M. Romany, TV6 News.
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