Carlyle Group released its own U.S. payroll estimate showing just 17,000 jobs added in September amid the shutdown delaying official data. The firm has long provided alternative metrics for GDP and inflation during data gaps. Carlyle’s analysis signals near-recession conditions, though other indicators remain resilient.
00:00It's Benzinga, bringing Wall Street to Main Street.
00:02Carlisle Group has stepped in to fill the U.S. economic data gap caused by the ongoing government shutdown, according to Bloomberg.
00:08It published its own estimates of timber payrolls, showing just 17,000 jobs added, among the weakest results since the 2020 recession.
00:15Labor Department's report, delayed by the shutdown, has been expected to show a 54,000 increase.
00:20From over a decade, Carlisle has produced its own estimates of U.S. GDP, consumer spending, and inflation as stand-ins when government data is delayed or unavailable.
00:29Carlisle's Jason Thomas said payroll data suggests a near recession, but other economic indicators show no such weakness.
00:35Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month in response to softening labor conditions, fresh data on jobs, and inflation could influence future rate decisions.
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