Colder-than-average winter for north-central US

AccuWeather

Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok shares what to expect across the county when transitioning into the winter season.

Transcript

00:00Joining us now with what to expect across the country is AccuWeather's lead long-range expert, Paul Pastelak.

00:06Paul, we want to know, what is this transition going to be like?

00:10How are we all looking at this?

00:12And I know you've been dissecting a few things out there to start off with.

00:15Yeah, we have.

00:17And the transition for some folks, especially the eastern half of the nation,

00:21will be a little bit slower this year as we get into the winter season.

00:25Just a lack of cold, persistent cold in these areas.

00:28But it does look like the northern U.S. and also the northwest part of the nation should see an early transition.

00:36We're looking at a couple of factors that will be involved.

00:38And I want to show you here today about sea surface temperature anomalies and also La Nina,

00:44two of the many factors that we're looking at for this coming winter season.

00:47But the graphic you see right now on the screen is the sea surface temperature anomalies,

00:52what the waters are like compared to the historical average.

00:55And we see a lot of red, a lot of orange, a lot of yellow, a lot of above average sea surface temperature anomalies.

01:01And this could have a big impact on the driving upper level patterns that set up for the late fall and winter season,

01:08which reflects the storm track, as you see right here, the jet stream levels.

01:13La Nina is developing.

01:14Okay, but we don't feel it's going to be officially a La Nina, but we'll see La Nina conditions.

01:19Those cooler waters are developing in the equatorial Pacific, but it affects the storm track.

01:24You have two, a northern storm track and a southern storm track.

01:27Those waters combined with the La Nina could have an impact.

01:31It may not be your typical La Nina setup.

01:34Those jet streams may be separated out farther away from each other,

01:37or the southern jet that brings in a lot of moisture may be weaker due to those water temperatures being so far above average right now.

01:44So that is something, Melissa, we're going to be watching very carefully going forward.

01:48All right, and we still have to get out of fall, right?

01:50So that transition time period is so pivotal because you have to start breaking on the jackets and all the winter gear.

01:56Tell us about that transition.

01:58Yeah, again, in the west, the northwest, it's mostly a little more action going on as far as the weather pattern.

02:04We're going to see some snow here in October in the above 9,000 feet in parts of the Cascades and central Rockies.

02:09Those places are going to see a little bit of snow.

02:11So it's starting a little bit early in these places.

02:13But the northern plains, they could also see a little bit of snow here before October is over with,

02:18but more so as you get into November.

02:20It's a little slower as you get to the south and east as far as the transition goes.

02:24All right, and until you get snow, you need temperatures that are going to be cool.

02:28Who's going to have some of the luck with that?

02:31Well, I think you're going to see a lot of this either on the front side here in December,

02:35a little bit of cold shots coming down out of the northwest.

02:38But I'm worried, my team is worried about late January into February this year.

02:43There could be a shot or at least multiple shots of frigid weather coming down out of Canada,

02:48right smack into the middle of the country and setting up even into the southern plains.

02:52Remember last year, mid-January, we had that cold snap, went all the way to the Gulf Coast.

02:56We may see this a little bit later, but again this coming season.

03:00All right, so where you have the cold, you can get the snow.

03:02We all want to know about snow.

03:04Who's going to be shoveling the most?

03:06Break that down for us.

03:07Yeah, we need the cold, right?

03:08We need the cold to get in here, but we don't want it too cold.

03:11It gets too dry.

03:12So we do have some areas that we're concerned about.

03:14This could expand as we get closer.

03:16Snow forecasting is very difficult this far out,

03:19but above average snowfall expected early,

03:22especially the first part of the winter season in the northwest.

03:25But it could be any time in the upper Midwest Great Lakes area.

03:28Look for lake effect machine to really kick in hard in December,

03:31late November, December time period in the western Great Lakes

03:34and eastern Great Lakes later on.

03:36And then there could be this swath of snow.

03:38Now the normals are lower than average from Oklahoma to Kentucky compared to the north.

03:42But remember last year we had snow all the way down to the Gulf Coast,

03:46and we could see that a little bit farther north this time.

03:49But a couple of storms late season could kick out from the south central plains

03:53all the way to the Appalachians.

03:55All right.

03:55I think that was a question on a lot of folks here at AccuWeather.

03:57We're like, can we see another gulf snow set up?

04:01And probably less likely it looks like.

04:03We keep looking at 2013-14 winter season.

04:06A lot of similarities to what's going on right now.

04:08If that's the case, that season was very, very active and very cold.

04:12That's true.

04:13Big, I think, ice in Atlanta that year, if I recall correctly.

04:17Yes.

04:18All right.

04:18Well, that is AccuWeather's long-range expert, Paul Pastelok.

04:21Thanks again for joining us.

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