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00:00back to closing trades on et now you're catching us live from the sdi live studio and while we're
00:06talking about the texture of the market it's not looking optimistic at all because we continue to
00:10fall 24 217 in fact okay we have slipped below that 25 200 mark two so that's a sharp cut coming
00:17in from the day's high coming in a half a percent cut over there a cut of incentivized intensified
00:22pardon me on sensex as well india weeks up six percent now canal this spike in india weeks
00:27remember just last week we were in fact talking about how the india weeks has been absolutely
00:32stagnant not moving at all and today this h1b news flow is all it took for india weeks to finally
00:38show us my cup yeah so i think uh today it's on the back of newsland uh you know the vix has to rise
00:43generally when the sentiment suddenly gets spooked and that spooking of sentiment happens when there
00:48is news flow which is attached it doesn't happen on a uh on a very uh you know a market which is
00:53devoid of news flows or any kind of a major events so i think in that aspect you know today's uh rise
00:59in the weeks uh gets justified but then i think the movement of the markets today uh you know this
01:04down 150 odd points for the nifty is not just on the back of uh you know the uh rise in the india
01:10weeks it's also i think uh you know some uh underperformance which has come out from sectors
01:15like financials or banking specifically in private sector banking names uh i think that's a sector which
01:21is underperformed so you know we were discussing this in the morning that if the markets have to
01:24balance out then uh if it sector opens with the gap down opening you might have other sectors trying
01:30to play the lead and trying to at least uh you know cover up the underperformance which could be
01:34there but that uh you know that part was played for right in the first half where you saw the bank
01:3950 remaining uh about that 55,700 600 plus mark but then i think from the second half itself you saw
01:45some selling pressure which come back into the private sector banking names specifically so i think
01:50maybe the markets are just about indicative that we are not uh heading towards any kind of a major
01:54breakdown or breakout or breakdown as such and we could just about trade into this 500 point band
01:59for the nifty 25,000 25,050 as a support and 25,500 broadly as a resistance for the index still
02:06remains all right so if at all we are off the day's highest point that is uh indeed what we are getting
02:12to see but along with that the markets are expected to be quite range bound is what kunal is
02:17highlighting but with this let me also welcome on board ruchid jain on the show right now
02:21hi ruchid good afternoon and what do you make of the markets ruchid because it's a bit of a u-turn
02:26by the markets but along with that heavyweights like reliance and htfc bank they are also down
02:31yes i very good afternoon uh well uh we have seen a good run-up in last three weeks in the market from
02:41the lows if you look at the nifty index itself then then a move from 24,400 to 24 25
02:46it was seen without any pullback or correction so i think the things on the low
02:52with overbought zone and this is leading to this uh pullback move that we are witnessing while this
02:58does not change the immediate trend for the market but uh no definitely indications are that some
03:03sort of short-term pullback is there in the market so we are advising our traders to keep a
03:08buy on dip approach and any decline towards the 25,100 uh 25,050 range you know would be a good
03:14support to watch out for so i think uh no this is just a correction within an uptrend and any
03:19declines towards the support uh whether in nifty as well as in bank nifty should be used as a buying
03:23opportunity okay so buy on dips and those are the levels to watch out for that's the word coming
03:28in from ruchid but on that note we'll slip in hi there welcome back to closing trades you're
03:33catching us live from the spi live studio and let's keep that conversation going around where
03:37the market is um expected to head and the kind of cuts that we've seen on the market today we
03:42have kanal and which is both back with us but kanal let me first come to you and let's talk about
03:46sectors now not much uh in the green right now but at one point of the day you did have the entire
03:52real estate pack that was holding on to the shade of green and doing very well it's on uh for itself
03:57on the back of this gcc opportunity that we're hearing now that a lot of tech jobs could be moving
04:02back home what's your take on real estate and particularly anant raj as a stock because
04:07remember last week when that data center boost came from the government the stock was up and
04:11today yet again yeah so i think anant raj is a different league altogether now because it's not
04:15just about real estate i think uh you know the stock has diversified itself so i think in that sense
04:20it's just charging a lot of premium uh and the power performance over the last couple of days has
04:24been very very stellar for anant raj and i think this was also due uh in some in some aspect for the
04:30stock price uh because i think the correction which happened for anant raj if i'm not wrong 800 or 900
04:35was the high for the stock in 2024 and from there the stock had fallen down to almost 40 50 percent
04:41so you know some somehow you know the stock which was a very high beta stock and had a tendency of
04:46participating very well with respect to the overall market trends over the last many years that was a
04:51missing feature for the stock price so it's just trying to get back into uh the alignment and i if i can
04:56just put maybe one more example the adani group of stocks even these stocks were out of sync for the
05:02last many months with respect to the overall market so i think now the flavor is coming back for the
05:07markets with respect to these two you know interesting pockets yes i think in terms of sectors real estate
05:13you know space definitely looks very attractive even at current levels the only catch over here is
05:18that uh there are many of the stocks which are still trading below their long-term averages i was
05:22actually looking at the charts for dlf orbita realty etc i think many of these stocks are still
05:28trading below their long-term averages so when you have such a kind of a setup where there is a base
05:32building which is happening but these you know stocks are still really below their longer term
05:35averages you have to take it step by step you know initially we look at say 50 dmas or 200 dmas
05:40uh as the first set of targets for the stock prices and then based on the volume patterns the urgency
05:46of the stock prices moving above those key averages that's where we determine that whether we are looking at a
05:51major trend building or not so as of now i would look at a maybe a phase one of the market of the
05:56rally for the real estate stocks uh dlf prestige orbita realty are the three names which fit in that
06:01category all right that's the take coming in on the real estate counters let's watch out for that but
06:06with this let's also get you some of the tradable ideas from both of our experts and richard you go
06:12first tell us uh which is the bt st or stbt idea you have for our viewers a couple of names i know
06:19that we like in such market where our performance could be seen uh no first is a adhani group stock
06:25adhani ports that we have seen in last couple of trading sessions you know the entire group has
06:28witnessed good price volume action adhani port is one stock which is quite close to 50 to 8 high
06:33indicating that uh you know in the recent past is that when the entire group has shown a really
06:38underperformance the stock has shown a good relative strength so i think adhani ports is one
06:42stock where the risk reward ratio is still favorable at current levels i would recommend to go long
06:47with stop loss below 1420 and if we see an upside in the near term that it could rally even towards
06:521550 in the short term i think adhani ports is one stock uh which we would recommend and bank of
06:57baroda is my second recommendation over here so primarily the entire psu banking space if we see
07:03after a consolidation of about three months i've seen a good breakout uh in last three or four
07:07trading sessions a bank of baroda also whenever it was uh it was coming around to 48 to 50 it was
07:12witnessing selling pressure but you know the range has been broken out on the upside so
07:17we are quite constructive on the psu banking space from a trading perspective within which
07:22bank of baroda is uh good on charts so one can go long there too keeping stop loss below 242 for
07:27potential targets around 267.
07:30so adhani ports and bank of baroda two stocks looking good to rachit right now kunal what about
07:35you what's looking appealing in a market that's largely falling see i think in this uh kind of a
07:39market it is very important as a strategy to lower the beta of the stocks which one is looking at
07:44in terms of buying so in that aspect i would suggest to buy calls and large cap names which are
07:49which are low beta the first one is ongc that's a chart which is looking attractive the stock is
07:54heading towards a breakout uh i think of a 50-day moving average if i'm not wrong this is a breakout
08:00this could be a breakout potentially if the stock closes above the 50 dma after almost two or three
08:05months of the stock trading below this key uh medium term moving average so that i believe
08:09could be interesting feature for a stock like ongc would look out for targets in the range of
08:13at least 243 stop loss could be kept at 235 and the second would be abhan grassim in a very similar
08:19uh in a way i think grassim is also showing signs of a potential breakout on the short-term consolidation
08:25charts uh you know the breakout point is closer to that 2885 890 so if the stock happens to cross
08:31back about 2885 and closes above this level that's where uh i would uh suggest the buy could
08:36be triggered for grassim look out for targets in the range of 3000 and stop loss could be kept at 2830
08:42all right so market conversation ahead get a check of where the markets are headed what is looking good
08:47and mainly what should your um navigation strategy be amid a volatile market like this we have mayoresh
08:54joshi head of equity at marketsmith india also joining us on the show and mayoresh hi good afternoon and
08:58thanks for your time today and give us a sense of just that right the kind of volatility that we
09:03have once again seeing seeping in in the market right now given the kind of sector churn we've
09:07seen of course our viewers or anybody rather would be tempted to buy given the fall we've seen
09:13but which sectors are looking good right now and how do you gauge where the sector churn could be headed
09:17next very good afternoon again i think the entire emphasis will be on consumption and growth so i think
09:25both the engines in terms of the gst rationalization moves that have largely taken place would reflect
09:31in better volumes happening across both consumer durability as well as consumer distributionary
09:36and at the same time the government capex along with private capex which has seen green shoes of
09:41coming back would largely mean that growth capital might be required for a whole host of domestic
09:47projects as far as manufacturing or infrastructure growth is concerned therefore we remain extremely
09:52optimistic in terms of quite a few segments within all these spaces that can continue doing well
09:58within consumption as a basket our own sense is hotels as a space should continue doing well
10:04fmcg selectively where volume stroke value growth should emerge very very strongly
10:10should emerge as a very strong earnings contender where earnings should come back very very strongly
10:15as we start hitting q3 within the sub segments of consumption footwear and domestic
10:23capital makers might actually continue doing well since infrastructure manufacturing because of private
10:29and public apex might be also something on the agenda i think select and bfcs can continue doing well
10:35in our opinion for infrastructure and manufacturing i think the sub segments like cement where the expectations
10:43of the reasonable volume growth coming through consolidation that we've probably seen for the industry
10:48itself will mean better dynamics as far as pricing is concerned because of a lot of cost efficiency is built in
10:55because of internal power captive power users as waste use recovery plants as well along with more
11:02more uh sanguine logistic uh requirements that have got built in along with cheaper input costs uh
11:09reported every time a bit upper time as we headed to q3 now will be relatively better so in our own sense i think
11:16selective sectors as i mentioned can continue to lead well and again i think the entire focus in terms of both
11:22consumption and investments coming back might actually propel earnings to probably hold up as we begin q3
11:28therefore from a market standpoint as as we see it in markets with india as well the distribution day
11:33count is at one and therefore i think as numbers start improving in q3 q2 will always be a little bit
11:39soft because of the monsoons and the seasonal week quarter that is always expected but commentaries might
11:45hint to better numbers coming through q3 onwards which will give the much needed impetus for the markets
11:52and in all probabilities if we remain in a confirmed uptrend we might actually hit all-time highs before we
11:57are in this capital all right uh that's we've been talking to a lot of white code um managements and
12:04consumer durable companies and they're optimistic that this gst cut could make up for the kind of
12:10losses they've seen um due to the early monsoons do you think that is something that could be possible or
12:15how long do you think gst benefits would take to start showing up as positives in the company financials
12:20of course i think most managements are alluding to the fact that an evident volume picture will be
12:27only visible in q3 and thereafter i think it all really depends on how the demand dynamics
12:33stick out but having said that i think in terms of consumer durables and structurally i think if you
12:39probably look at white codes as a segment they're talking about acs refrigerators washing machines
12:45microwaves as an example i think that entire ecosystem might see some element of growth coming
12:50through and that might be prima facie in terms of urban and semi-urban areas where a large part of this
12:56growth will come through the income tax rationalization which has happened which will
13:00again start paying out very very effectively uh with gst rationalization coming through i think there
13:06might be an added incentive to probably go out there and spend and therefore i think a lot of management
13:10seem very very optimistic uh and therefore i think visible results will only be seen probably in q3
13:15having said that i think the expectation largely in terms of how much of an impact can it create in
13:21terms of volumes and therefore all our numbers when it comes to top line including margin expansion and
13:26bottom line growth i think q3 will be a base for that having said that again i think blue star is
13:32something from the ac segment which is done well a proxy to this might also become something like an
13:38enables which can probably have some element of say both in terms of the audibles as well as
13:44creating the necessary impetus that it probably carries through in terms of which called business
13:49all right so that's the day coming in on select uh white coat companies but along with that um
13:54you just wanted to have your take on select tire counters because today morning we were speaking
13:59with the management of seatt wherever where they were quite optimistic about the demand going ahead not
14:05just the replacement but also from the oem side that's expected to do well and all in all in this
14:11auto rally the tire counters haven't participated much but ruchit amongst apollo tires seatt balakrishna
14:18industries if i ask you to pick one what will that be yes i think the segment as a whole if
14:25uh anyone is looking for some positional picks then one can look for tire sector where
14:30overall structure seems to be positive in some of these names but if i were to pick one amongst
14:34these then apollo tire would be preferred one the stock has recently seen and seen in price
14:39upon a breakout above its immediate hurdles which was around 460 470 and if you look at the price
14:44structure that then is the formation higher top higher bottom formation along with the rising volumes
14:49the stock is even not breaking its 50-day exponential moving over at support if you look at recent
14:53short-term charts so overall i think this phase should do well and within this
14:57apollo tires in terms of risk reward ratio is much available over here so one can look to create
15:02fresh logs and apollo tires at current levels so apollo tires looking good and create fresh logs is the
15:08word coming in from ruchit but kanal uh you know we also spoke with the management of jk cement early
15:14in the morning today um what's your take on some of the cement counters because jst is also significantly
15:19reduced on that pack but you're pecking order amid that space so it's a space which has done uh just
15:25okish i would say you know on the price recovery front even for jk cement for example in the last
15:29four five days we've seen a pickup of 300 400 points which is largely three percent four percent
15:34in the stock price uh movement so i think in that sense from 6400 it's moved towards 6800 6850 mark
15:41uh mild recovery coming back into the likes of acc ambuja cement so maybe i think it's just about a
15:46very tepid rally difficult to uh you know pinpoint the uh outperformers of the outliers over here because
15:51as of now we are still into a phase where the sector is going through a very tepid recovery
15:56maybe i think grassim uh you can also look at architect cement these are the two uh names which
16:01are which have generally been uh leaders or strong performers uh in terms of the cement pack so maybe
16:07i think these stocks could be better placed with respect to the other pairs all right so that's the
16:12take coming in on the cement uh counters let's watch out for that which along with that on the bottom
16:16of your screen you will get to see that it's at sebi that has issued a consultation paper on
16:21technical glitches in the stock broker trading system the framework first issued in november 2022
16:27is now under review after the industry feedback and the circular to take effect from november 1st 2025
16:33that's the uh big news that we are getting to understand uh from the sebi front it's a new
16:40consultation paper that has been issued with respect to the technical glitches but this is applicable on
16:46the brokers who have 10 000 or more clients as of now but along with that my research just wanted
16:52to have your take on select exchange related counters off late they have been very volatile
16:58on the back of um the kind of news flow and the fno adjustments how the volumes are expected to uh
17:05get a hit but what's your sense on the exchange related counters as of now maires
17:11especially i think you'll have to give it time right because i think with all the regulatory changes
17:15that are now transpiring as we speak uh it really depends and it's to be seen what kind of an impact
17:21does that really have in terms of the overall volumes as far as these exchanges are concerned
17:25both vse uh and then the data that we'll get from nse as well and therefore i think equity linked
17:31exchanges uh might actually have some element of uh softness embedded in q2 based on all these factors
17:38put together and what does the consultation paper actually tell us uh in terms of weekly expiry
17:43whether it's going to be fortnight like studies going forward i think nobody's thought about that
17:47so i think wait and watch on that in fact out of the exchanges mcx in terms of ratings and rankings
17:52probably looks a little bit uh better placed the expectation in terms of more contracts coming
17:59through mcx way but actually pay way for more stability in earnings as we speak uh the gold and
18:05the silver futures which have probably got launch options which is still a large part in terms of the
18:09average daily turnover the balance sheet probably looks very very strong they've got very strong
18:14ebitda margins as we speak in excess of 70 71 percent and therefore i think more institutional
18:20participation is one that reads through in terms of the commodity exchange the kind of leadership that
18:26the stock probably carries as far as a large part of the contracts are concerned whether it's gold
18:32silver crude factual gas which becomes a more important than a prominent part in terms of the
18:37average daily volumes might actually mean that if all these initiatives are taken up it might be
18:43better volumes and margins will probably sustain which means better waterline growth so out of all
18:48the exchanges at this juncture mcx probably seems to be a tad bit better place indeed and of late the stock
18:55has been uh seeing decent moves as well but kunal there's been no stopping in the gold and the silver
19:01prices as well mcx is indeed one of the beneficiaries but one of the other pockets is the gold
19:06finances companies no stopping on that front as well take a look at manapuram and muthut even in this
19:12on this day the stocks are doing so very well what's your take on that kunal how much more headroom is
19:18there yeah i think uh till time the gold prices they keep on rising up higher i would believe that there
19:23could be a chance that uh the gold financiers they could stand to outperform and you know even uh on the
19:29dollar terms for example for the gold prices i don't see a major cool of happening at least as of now
19:34my expectation is that i think we should uh you know at least come close to that four thousand
19:39dollar uh you know per ounce mark or we break past about those levels on the gold prices so maybe i
19:45think in that context there should be some side left for the you know gold prices over the short term
19:50so yeah even from a short term angle the likes of manapuram finance etc they would be uh considered
19:55more more as a buy on dips approach all right buy on dips could be the strategy when it comes to gold
20:01finances but ruchit if i can have your closing comments the kind of um closing that we are
20:07getting to see nifty 50 is exactly at that 25 200 mark while for nifty bank as well 152 points of
20:16decline where do you see the markets open for tomorrow what's your analysis there
20:22so i mean considering that you know last half an hour or last one hour we have seen some
20:26selling pressure we could see a soft opening in uh follow-up homes tomorrow but definitely if we get
20:31some kind of negative opening towards that 25 100 if comes then i know that uh such a such a kind of
20:37negative opening could then be used as a buying opportunity so price wise downside seems to be
20:43limited from here on i think you just said time correction could happen in uh tomorrow's trading session
20:48so some consolation could be expected that's all for that but with this mairesh rochit as well as
20:54canal thank you so much for taking the time out and speaking with us just a few minutes left for the
20:59market to shut shop and let me hand
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