00:00Hi, welcome back to Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris. Let's continue our conversation about
00:24the protests that have gripped Indonesia since late August. What lessons should we
00:29be drawing from our neighbour's crisis? Joining me now is Dr. Azmil Muhammad Taib, Associate Professor
00:36at USM's School of Social Sciences. Azmil, thank you so much for being on the show with me today.
00:42We spoke to you a year ago with the election or the win, the landslide win of Prabowo. Now,
00:52a year into his administration, we're seeing Indonesia's protests,
00:55said to be ignited by the housing allowance for the parliamentarians, which in my head was 10 times,
01:03or more than 10 times the country's minimum wage. So I'm just wondering from where you're sitting,
01:09do you think that we are as vulnerable in Malaysia to similar public anger over elite privilege?
01:18Thanks, Melissa, for having me on the show. Always a pleasure. Yes, I think we are vulnerable. Perhaps
01:29not as dire as we're seeing in Indonesia right now. Mainly, I think, because Indonesia has a history of
01:38protests in a more active civil society, more and more radical, should I say, than us here.
01:50But there's always the vulnerability. I think, especially when you see the political and economic
01:56elites getting more and more detached from the lived experience of the public,
02:03you know, with the rising, you know, cost of living, you know, and other poor economic indicators,
02:13perhaps. Yeah. So, but I think economic, when it comes to the economy, perhaps we're not,
02:19it's not as bad as it is Indonesia. Perhaps that helps to cushion, you know, the, some of the worst
02:27effects effect that we've seen. But, but I think it, but it should not make us complacent to what's
02:34going on in Indonesia. Right. You are a close watcher of Indonesian politics. You spend a lot of time
02:42there. Near, I think slightly more than a year into Prabowo's term. What's your headline assessment,
02:49if I may? Where has he met expectations? Where is he falling short? Especially, I'm surprised at how
02:56quickly his popularity has fell, given that he had the landslide victory in the 2024 elections.
03:06Yeah. I think the, when Prabowo won the election last year, he was pretty much riding on the
03:14coattail of the former president, Jokowi. Right. So, Jokowi had a very high approval rating
03:21around the election time. I think it was in the high seventies. So, 70%. So, I think that, that really
03:29helped to, to, to buoy the, you know, Prabowo into victory, the landslide victory. But I think now,
03:39the, the Jokowi effect is slowly, you know, it's, it's, it's no longer there. And, and now, you know,
03:53people seeing that, okay, you know, like he's, he's, his own administration, he has to own up to,
03:58to his own policies. So, I think that the reality is finally sinking in. And I think a lot of the,
04:07the, um, his, his, uh, landmark, um, programs, like the, the free meals, um, for, for school
04:16children, uh, has, has not been that successful. Um, it's been quite erratic. A lot of cases of food
04:23poisoning. And, and also it, it, it doesn't live up to expectation and it takes up so much money.
04:31Right. So, I think in Indonesia at the time, we're seeing, um, Prabowo spending so much money,
04:38um, for his flagship program, this free meal, and also not to forget, uh, Jokowi's, you know,
04:44the, the capital, um, new capital, Musantara in Kalimantan, you know, um, these are all sucking the
04:52coffers dry. Um, so in a time when Indonesia is, is, um, you know, is highly leveraged, you know,
04:59uh, having to pay foreign debts, you know, for all the infrastructure programs, you know, built by,
05:06um, carried out by Jokowi during his two terms, you know, that incurred so much debt. So, so it means
05:13that they have to find revenues from somewhere, um, and, and also imposing austerity measures.
05:20Um, and also, um, you know, imposing new taxes, you know, value added taxes, and some other taxes that
05:33put more burden on the public. I think this really fueled the anger and frustration of the people
05:39that culminated in the, in the, in the, in this protest that we are seeing. Um, and then of course,
05:45you know, the, um, the increase in housing allowance, that was the icing on the cake,
05:51and then dancing inside the parliament right after the, they, they passed the, if you've seen the,
05:58the video that went viral, you know, the, the MPs were dancing, celebrating, you know, um,
06:05really fueled the anger. And then of course, the, the tragic death of the, um, of Afan Kumiangwan
06:11as well. Uh, I think that that was the catalyst that pretty much, you know, that, that, that few
06:16are we seeing right now. So, yeah. Azmil, do you see any, um, similarities or echoes of 1998?
06:25It toppled Suharta's regime. Is, um, Prabowo's regime at risk? Yeah, I think it's, it's, I mean,
06:32there are of course similarities. Um, I mean, but there are also differences. Um, maybe we can start with
06:39similarities, uh, in 1998, it was in the midst of, in the thick of the Asian financial crisis,
06:46right? So, so we have that, that similarity as well, because Indonesia, the economy is not doing
06:53so well, uh, especially you can see, uh, youth unemployment rate is actually quite high in Indonesia.
06:59Uh, I think more than quadruple of the national unemployment rate. So, and you can see, you know,
07:06the, most of the protesters are actually young people, right? So people who are just frustrated,
07:12angry, and feeling hopeless in this, um, state of economy right now. So that's, you know, why they're
07:19out there protesting, right? So, so you see the similarities as well. Um, but at the same time,
07:27there are also differences because in 1998, um, there was a clear target. That's a clear objective,
07:33which is to force Soharto to step down, right? So you have a clear common enemy, so to speak,
07:39right? So for all, everyone protesting, everyone out in the street. So the main objective is to force
07:44Soharto to step down, right? To, to force the, the collapse of the regime. But I think right now
07:52it's much more difficult because there's no one, um, tangible villain. I mean, yes, that's Prabowo.
07:59Um, but then Prabowo at the same time was democratically elected. So he wasn't, uh, uh, uh,
08:06an authoritarian figure. I mean, I mean, I guess we can, I mean, there are authoritarian tactics that
08:12he's been using, but he was democratically. I mean, he's, yeah, he's a strong man leader.
08:17So, right. So it's, so there's, you know, less tangible, um, you know, enemy, so to speak,
08:26you know, target, you know, so people protesting, but, but to what end really? So, so, but, um,
08:34but I think you, you have civil society groups that are actually, um, proposing, um, demands,
08:39right? There's 17 plus eight demands, um, that, uh, Indonesian government, the parliament can take up
08:47on, you know, um, some, some more immediate demands, some more short, you know, medium term and long term,
08:53right? So we'll see, um, you know, how, how far that this government, uh, take up this demand or how
09:02seriously they, they take up the demands from the, from the civil society. Yeah. Do you, do you not think
09:08that, um, this, there is a risk of, um, the probable administration being toppled? I'm just wondering what the,
09:17what is at stake for him now in terms of responding to these demands, in terms of, uh, whether Indonesia
09:24might, um, deepen its instability at this point in time? Um, will we keep, I, I wonder whether he will
09:34do what it takes to end the, the protests currently? Yeah, I think the, um, the way that the protests and
09:44then as a response of the, the government has been so far, it doesn't look like the, the protests will
09:51end anytime soon. I mean, because the, the response actually has been quite heavy handed. Um, you know,
09:59you see the, they already, I don't know what's the, the latest count of that, like 10 people,
10:05I think so far, right? So, um, and then what hundreds injured and thousands arrested, uh,
10:12there even people who disappeared, right? So, um, and then there's military getting involved as well,
10:19you know, so not just the police. Um, so, so, so it's, it's like the, you know, the, instead of
10:30perhaps, um, you know, adopting more softer approach, you know, uh, in appeasing the, the, the protesters,
10:40uh, I think the, the, the Prabowo's administration has been quite, um, heavy handed,
10:47more repressive. And then even when, when he apologized for the death of Afan Kunyawan also,
10:54he, he sound quite, you know, like unrepentant, you know, the, um, it doesn't, there's no contrition,
11:03you know, in his speech because like, yes, it's tragic, but at the same time, you know, he also, um,
11:09um, praise the police for doing what's needed to, to quell the, you know, the, the protests and things
11:16like that. So, even though the police are actually, the police brutality is one of the,
11:21the grievances of the protesters. Right. So, just a question, because we, we have seen,
11:28or history has shown us that movements can cross borders. So, are there regional risks,
11:34particularly that we should be aware of, if these grievances of the protesters continue to go
11:40unaddressed? Uh, we saw, uh, if I just may use the 1998 crisis, it was part of a wider wave of
11:47change in Asia after the AFC. Reformasi was an example of that. Do you think that Indonesia's
11:53protests could resonate in Malaysia? Could there be effects of maybe, I think about like labor
11:59migration or, um, security cooperation, uh, regional cooperation within ASEAN? Could that have
12:06any impact on the region? Yes, of course. I think the, we, um, we're not, you know, I mean, we're all
12:14interconnected in the region, right? We're all interdependent. So, I think the, definitely, I think the,
12:21you know, the, perhaps more out migration of Indonesia, perhaps, right? We're already seeing the,
12:28the hashtag tabur ajar dulu, you know, the, you know, they remember the, like a few months ago,
12:34there was trending on social media, right? Because like those are young people who, who are feeling
12:40hopeless. Um, there's nothing they, they can do in, in their own country. So, so there's, you know,
12:47the trending that, um, is that they, you have to live to, to make a better life for yourself. You have
12:53to migrate, right? So, um, perhaps there's more going to be more of that. Um, and also it impacts tourism
13:02as well, right? Because, you know, there are a lot of worry. Um, I mean, even for me personally,
13:08that I have friends who've been asking me, they are, they, they make them, they have made plans,
13:12you know, to, to go to Indonesia this month. Um, and then say, should we go, is it safe,
13:18right? Maybe we should just cancel our trip or postpone our trip indefinitely, you know? So, there's this
13:25concern, you know, uh, about their safety if they go. So, I think that affects Indonesian tourism as well.
13:32And also, I think at the same time, it also maybe emboldens the civil society in Malaysia,
13:37you know, maybe to, to put on more pressure on the, on the Malaysian government to, to implement
13:44all these reforms that they, they, they promised, especially for the PH, you know, Pakataharapan,
13:49promised during the election campaign, right? So, but I think that, like I said, you know,
13:55our situation is not as dire as, as in Indonesia, uh, mainly because, I think because of the election
14:02system, electoral system that we, uh, they're different, you know, because Indonesia electoral
14:06system favors the elites, you know? So, you have to be rich, um, to become a candidate in Indonesia.
14:14Um, so that's why you see, um, most of the, pretty much everyone, I would say, uh, in the parliament,
14:24you know, um, comes from, uh, uh, the rich business people or celebrities, right? We see so many
14:31celebrities, right? Becoming members of parliament in Indonesia, right? So, simply because they, they're
14:37rich for one, and also they have name recognition. Yeah. Because unlike Malaysia, because Malaysia is
14:42very party-centered, so, so they choose their own candidates. So, we can have, like, school teachers,
14:48we can, like, Ustad, or we can have, like, retired, you know, pensioners, uh, to become candidates,
14:55you know? So, we have more mixed, um, MPs. So, I think that helps a bit, you know? So, it doesn't look
15:01too elite, like, or too disconnected, like in Indonesia, because when you look at the, the members of
15:07parliament in Indonesia, they're all, it's as if, like, they live, they live in your own, like, different
15:12world, you know, than the rest of the public. Right. Interesting, Azmil. Thank you so much for
15:17being on the show with me today. Dr. Azmil Muhammad Taib, um, political analyst at USM School of
15:22Social Sciences, wrapping up this episode of Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris, signing off for the evening.
15:27Thank you so much for watching, and good night.
15:37Thank you so much for watching, and thank you so much for watching, and thank you so much for
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