- 4 months ago
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00:00this this video is kind of like on psychology and thought process during a period of time like this
00:08so it's really I'm just gonna kind of say it how it is right it's like a fucking wake-up call
00:16because I don't know who else is gonna tell you this so I will be I will be the one
00:21we are we are in a choppy period of price action but it's not as bad as everybody's making it okay
00:30everybody is hyper emotional the chat is um is is super super back and forth on every candle close
00:39on every like five minute impulse and the price action tonight is is really just kind of like the
00:45compounding uh kind of you know uh effect for me where I feel as though it's probably more valuable
00:51for me to speak about it to kind of set the record straight on on some of the price action and
00:57the moves that we're seeing and the expectations we can have and why the kind of the emotion of
01:03chat is like way out of line with that and it's it's not just the emotion of chat because the
01:08emotion of chat is representative of the traders in there so it's it's the representation of
01:13the haven mentality at the moment and the kind of haven uh kind of discussion path um is very
01:22emotional and I also think that's a really good contributing factor in kind of where we are in
01:28terms of um in terms of this part of the cycle as well you know I think expectation has grown to
01:33uh it's quite a high level but we'll go on to that a little bit later on so I want to start off with
01:37like kind of Ethan this is really the the kind of the big thought process market and the big the
01:43big reason for doing this right so tonight from uh from the open we started off really strongly on
01:49ETH we had a fantastic follow-up candle on ETH so we had two hours of really great price action from
01:54the open and then the one o'clock candle here and we moved straight into this this higher time frame
01:58uh resistance here this is a four hour resistance level on 1620 and really nice move you know really
02:05productive strong move from ETH to to get up to that level um what we then saw was the start of a
02:15pullback right so we started to see uh ETH failing and this was kind of you know approaching the hourly
02:21and then uh we got to kind of two o'clock and the hourly didn't you know wasn't fantastic we had a
02:26relatively large wick up here but there lies the issue with the thought process for the majority at
02:36this point in time so what we did on ETH is we put in a very aggressive move you know if you take a
02:43look at kind of what we covered off in this period of time if you take it from the low here uh into the
02:47high we were we were up like three and a half percent right and this was in the space of uh about 40
02:54minutes so an incredibly strong lower time frame push from ETH um rallied up off the bottom of this
03:02support level down here hit the top of the range of the 1620s and then started to reject now when it
03:09comes to the overall movement right like this movement is fine a correction and a pullback and
03:17a potential rejection are to be expected right so it's not like there's there has to be a
03:24continuation from this perspective you know 1620 is a very solid level it's a very important level
03:30for ETH to reclaim but it's not really the thought process about hitting the resistance or pulling back
03:36it's the fact that as soon as the market begins to pull back the mentality completely swings the other
03:42way so what's happening is is chat and traders are creating a an emotional uh kind of playground
03:54based on the action now what I'm saying is when ETH goes up three and a half percent in 40 minutes
04:02you have to expect some sort of fucking pullback right it's not just going to go vertical and keep
04:09on pumping and then that's going to be it right it's just going to be vertical and you're going to
04:12be fine you're going to be happy in your lungs and that's everything's going to be nice and easy for
04:16you and you know you just chill out that's typically not the way it works so what happens is it starts
04:22to kind of implant really bad emotional trading behaviors in you so what happens is you then
04:28start to react based on the fact the five minute is rejected so you might have an ETH position open
04:36and you might decide you know what I'm going to close that ETH position because the five minute is
04:40looking like it's going to reject the level now that's a problem if your target's higher if your
04:46if your objective is to hit the resistance and then take profit fine right great trade if your
04:51intent is to take it past that level and you start reacting emotionally to the price action that's a
04:57huge negative for your position because the reality of what we had is a very strong move and a snap back
05:05on the lower time frames towards you know kind of more more um kind of cool off areas support areas
05:13that mid-range that we've got over here around you know the 1590s and actually when you look at the
05:19hourly things aren't too bad right you know we're back down in this this 1590 zone um and that's fine
05:28you know we moved up to the top resistance we're now back down to the 1590s there's a retest the RSI is
05:33in a really nice position here the awesome oscillators just crossing over you know the the usual momentum
05:38uh spiel at this point in time but it's a it's a decent looking market right it hasn't changed just
05:45because your five minute candle is rejected now that is the problem is that everybody is currently
05:51reacting to the five minute candles they're reacting to the lower time frames and if things
05:55aren't moving 20 percent higher immediately then there's a problem with the market then something's
05:59wrong then it's a big rejection then it's choppy pa like the reality of this situation is you know if
06:05you caught a move from down at the low this is a really productive move for you so far and nothing
06:10has changed that scenario nothing nothing has compromised the thought process about an eth potential
06:15breakout here just because we've come back down to this midpoint of the range after rejecting off the
06:20high nothing has changed about the scenario um so at the moment the the kind of you know the chat
06:28and everything that's going on there is just kind of hyper emotional about every every move
06:32um and it's really not a productive place uh when when the emotions are that high because what it
06:41also causes you to do is it also causes the chain effect of kind of like mass closing of positions
06:46and so what happens is you start to like just broad sweep where you just be like that close everything
06:52down right close close close close close but some of your positions will still be fine you know like apt is
06:58a good example so i i've tried to scalp apt tonight um taking a move off the uh the lower time frames
07:05nice little five minute breakout sitting at hourly support right decent enough trade opportunity um so
07:11try and take a trade off this now apt has gone on to make a fresh high since the rejection on eth
07:16and so when you get into this emotional state you tend to just like quickly go across all your
07:22positions close them down if you are in a very emotional state about things you'll often just take
07:27counter trade positions so you'll immediately short because you'll look at the rejection you'll think
07:32shit it was bearish all along i was right right short it i knew i should have been shorting this
07:37get into a short position it's big rejection it's going to fail this time yeah yeah and then you get
07:41yourself into uh into a short position and then what happens like on apt is like apt pumps again
07:47and you're like oh fuck like it's gone higher right close down the shorts go back into long positions
07:51right and it begins this flip-flopping process where you're just back and forth on your positioning
07:58and it's very often the same markets as well it's very often the same markets because you tend to fix
08:03eight and you'll just tend to like flip between them um so it starts a really dangerous spiral for
08:10most people where they begin opening and closing positions too rapidly with little thought about
08:15what they're doing it just becomes like oh five minute rejection oh nasty hourly wick close
08:20the reality is far far different from that and you really need to keep perspective on you know kind
08:27of like the wider picture here and the way that the markets are moving the way that they're setting
08:33up the way that they are you know kind of you know chopping back and forth but within boundaries that
08:39are acceptable the other point is and i really really want to stress this is like you have to be aware
08:45that the markets are not always going to go vertical that's going to save you so much heartbreak right
08:52when you appreciate that actually levels are still respected we're still going to move back we're still
08:58going to retest we're still going to cool off the lower time frames we're still going to consolidate
09:02for a little bit and that that isn't a bad thing i mean so if your market does consolidate if it does hit
09:10the resistance and it does pull back on the lower time frames then it's not all doom and gloom it's not
09:14everything's over fuck flip into short positions shit get out of all lungs um you know like it really
09:20has to be like a far more disciplined and kind of self-aware approach that that we're taking to the
09:26market uh this period in time you know it's like it's a really it's a really kind of you know tricky
09:33place at the moment but it's a tricky place because there's a lot of emotions circulating i think the
09:37price action has actually been relatively decent um i think the problem that you get is that
09:43like the bearish voices will pick up right like mine so kind of you know my bearish voice about
09:52you know taking building swing short positions and you know looking to to build higher into other
09:57positions and you know like that so that will kind of like play into things but you have to appreciate
10:03the level of emotion that's currently at play and you have to be able to take steps to get away from
10:08that right like there's way too much circulating it right and there's way too much that's going to be
10:13impacting behaviors so you really have to like chill with it relax appreciate that you are probably being
10:22emotional when it comes to the charts and to the trades and that it's not productive at all you know
10:28it's not a productive thing to be the most important thing is you're managing your risk you have a stop
10:34loss for your positions and you're able to withstand those swings in the market that's what's important
10:40and like e3 this level here you know some people have puked very good positions based on their their
10:47rejection tomorrow morning i might wake up and he might be trading at 1650 right because like it's still
10:56doing what you would want it to do from the bullish side but everybody is very reactive on the emotions
11:01of the lower time frame and so really like really fucking important that you don't get into that
11:09situation it's not just taking failed like planned trades that will fuck you over right like that's
11:17going to happen i've been taking planned failed trades you know this this weekend you know last couple
11:22holidays i've got trades that fail right and they've got trades that i've got to close early
11:26um but like that doesn't kill the account the thing that kills the account is when you're like
11:35you're trade trade trade trade trade right there's back back to back to back to back trades
11:41we just you just flip in between long and short and long and short and it's just the emotional side
11:46taking over and then what you're also doing is you're not able to capitalize on the moves as they
11:51do develop because you've ended up you know compromising or closing your long position
11:56flipping short twice in between being long again finally catching another leg up panic closing it when
12:03we got a little bit of a sell-off right you you enter that like it just takes over that
12:07you're entering far more trades than you need to over a period of time because of the way you're kind
12:14of emotionally charged about the market in its current state and like obviously i've got no
12:18idea what happens about you know east future pricing and you know where we are tomorrow and
12:23it would be nice if we were at 1650 right but i i got no fucking clue what's going to happen with this
12:28but the emotion of it and the way that chat is currently in the way that traders are operating
12:34currently is very kind of telling on the emotional side like you can fail trades here that's fine but
12:41don't get yourself into bad habits through the emotion of the charts through the emotion of the
12:45lower time frames and what that does to you you know that's the most important thing if you've got
12:50a planned trade and you fail it fine right like that's a shame don't get into the habit where you're
12:57mashing around and just flip-flopping between trades like immediately just because you're reacting
13:03to a lower time frame you know pump or rejection it's not the place to be in and so when it comes
13:12to chat be aware that that is currently happening in the haven be aware that that sort of emotion is
13:20being conveyed by the messages that are being sent in in market discussion and make sure that doesn't
13:27impact you in your trading make sure it doesn't mean that you're jumping in and out of position
13:31manage your risk try to manage your position better don't be so desperate to lock in a trade
13:38really stop and think you know look has this now compromised my overall trade idea yes or no
13:46and if it hasn't you stay in the position as long as your risk is managed you should be comfortable
13:51in doing that it's a really really think about the way that this period of time is kind of impacting
13:57you because if this market does leg up again you know if this market does end up taking a move and
14:03it gets into the 1700s and we make a big push through here i think a lot of people will be very
14:09disappointed with their performance in this region when actually the levels are clean the only thing that
14:15will be wrong is timing and the timing probably could have been correct for many people should they
14:21have just held on to positions or just waited that little bit longer right instead of being so reactive
14:27so just a point on emotions and like chill out zoom out from it all stop being so engrossed in the lower
14:36time frame everybody starts to zoom in and in and in when we get into periods of price action like we're
14:43currently in so make sure that you are still very much aware of the picture and the time frames in which
14:50you're trading and also make sure that you are aware of the emotional state of not only yourself
14:55but other traders who may have an impact on you
15:20you
15:21you