- 4 months ago
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00:00all right welcome to this video uh this is gonna really just kind of be an educational discussion
00:07really and something that i kind of wanted to talk about more in my approach and something
00:14that i think is is very very important for other people to consider in their approaches as well and
00:18i think this period of time in the markets is a very good time to kind of discuss this in more
00:23detail and what this really revolves around is it's kind of higher time frame or swing traders or
00:31holders so people who just buy spot and tend to sit on things and what i want to discuss is uh the way
00:41that we can lull or trick ourselves into scenarios that we create in our heads
00:47so over the course of the last maybe well i don't know for quite a while but let's let's think
00:56about it maybe in terms of the last three four weeks
00:59there's been a lot of people who have been posting who have been saying i think this is what happens
01:09right so they say i think 50k holds the support
01:14uh we've had some people say i think 38k holds the support i think we don't go any lower than 36k
01:23i think we're going to retest 40k right so we see all these things these and these are
01:29sometimes just off the cuff comments sometimes they're a belief that we have around price action
01:38and the reason that i kind of bring this up and i want to talk about this in more detail
01:44is it's incredibly dangerous to have that line of thinking in trading so the markets are punishing
01:51and they tend to punish any thoughts that we have and any sort of self-guidance that we have in that
02:00regard one of the ways that we tend to trick ourselves is by starting to believe a set of
02:06information that we're telling ourselves so the classic is you start off by saying i think this is
02:12where the price action is going to go because we've got a range of confluence here right whether or not
02:17you're a horizontal level trader and you might have a support region whether or not you're an ma trader
02:22and you've got a moving average in the region whether or not you're a divergence trader and you've got a div
02:26forming and what happens is you create a situation in your head that says i think btc is going to go to
02:3533k right and it's going to hold there now what tends to happen is you tend to plant a seed
02:42so you plant this seed in your thought process
02:46and although your decision and your initial thought may have stemmed from a technical
02:52thought it plants this kind of seed around how you're going to now begin to think about trading
02:58so what very often happens so just adjust myself here what very often tends to happen is
03:07we start putting out these projections of price or what we think is going to happen in the price
03:14action and before too long we're readily believing that is the outcome that we're going to see
03:21right so that's where the danger starts to happen we plant the seed
03:25and before long we start believing that entirely right it becomes our kind of whole thought process
03:33is i think this is what's going to happen i've said that and now i'm kind of living by it right and
03:41all of the all of the afterthoughts i'm having are all related to that initial idea that i i came up
03:47with that's a very dangerous thing for trading because lots of people played the top incorrectly on btc
03:55because they had these strong ideas of what was going to happen right versus letting the price action
04:01dictate and tell us what's happening people instead started to believe their own narrative
04:07they started to believe their own price projections and the market punishes that and we saw the same
04:13on the way down right we saw the same at 38k it's gonna hold it's gonna hold it's gonna hold
04:17huge nuke so one thing that i practice regularly and i'm pretty vocal in terms of when i have a
04:28technical setup for instance on the nasdaq right it's the technical setup i've shared to the greatest
04:34degree right now and the one that kind of dominates my my trading over the next few months
04:39what i do is i question it okay i question it so if i've planted the seed and the seed in my head
04:51is that the nasdaq corrects what i have to do is i have to look at ways to disprove that
04:59kane from snx was recently on up only and it was kind of really cool to see that he has a very similar
05:08approach to me in that regard so what i do is i look at the setup and i look at the situation
05:15so for example the bearish divergence on the nasdaq and i look at that and i look at other ways of
05:22interpreting that so i'll look at it and i'll say well if we go to the weekly time frame there's
05:30definitely room for an up move here we're in a raging up trend there's definitely continuation
05:36possibilities the economic outlook for the dollar isn't great so i begin to balance that thought
05:43process okay it helps to pull me in
05:46and it's a really positive thing to do with any thought process that you're having when it comes
05:53to trading is counter yourself right directly look at countering your own seed that you planted
06:00so when you start having ideas around listen 32k is going to hold on btc question why it won't
06:09ask yourself immediately well what are the signs that it won't hold the fact that we've been selling
06:15off continuously the fact that selling aggression is so great in this region
06:20plenty of things you can use to counter yourself do not be the sort of person that falls into the
06:29trap of believing the first idea that springs to mind without questioning it without stopping to
06:37take the other side of your thought process because you'll really find that it helps you to balance it
06:42out because once you start to directly challenge the original idea that you had then you begin to
06:51basically move into a position where you understand that maybe the first idea you had
06:56maybe wasn't as clear as now it looks right like when you first had it was like yeah it's obvious like
07:04it's going to hold at 32k but now you've chosen to actively question it and actively challenge that belief
07:11it will probably look very very different to you it will not be as clear cut as it was the first time
07:17you had that thought so always work to challenge your assumptions no matter how heavily you believe
07:24an idea actively work to take the other side and challenge that so it's something that i do regularly
07:31like i said with the nasdaq divergence with btc when i shorted you know pretty close to the top
07:36it was something i was working on actively to say look how do i determine is this the right line to
07:44be taking is this the right macro outlook to be having so the same way that you know i said at the
07:52start this links into kind of higher time frame traders swing traders holders um the same goes for
07:58you guys when you're sitting there and you've got a fat profit on your spot bags and you say to
08:06yourself this is going higher man like the market is just raging this is going to go higher
08:10immediately stop and question why it won't right so immediately take the opposite side
08:18it's a question why it won't happen
08:22really really solid way of kind of managing your thought process and being a direct challenge to
08:34yourself and prompting deeper thought and discussion into your rationale so the spot traders higher time
08:41frame traders swing traders right all of you guys need to be doing the active questioning you need
08:46to be taking a look at these things and saying is this something that i should be questioning my
08:54beliefs on immediately and if you start to muddy the waters if you start to remove the clarity that's a
09:00good thing because it means that the decision that you made in the first place was probably rushed
09:06you came to a decision too quickly and now you're taking the time to really dive into it more
09:11and there's a really good there's kind of a really good frame of reference for this in
09:18in the film uh world war z which weirdly i saw the other night
09:24which is where there's a and i i don't remember this perfectly but i'll give you the best
09:32representation that i can remember gets the underlying points across
09:36so there's uh there's a council of 10 people and when talking about events or likely outcomes
09:46if nine people agree that an event or an outcome is likely the 10th person has to disagree
09:55right however improbable that outcome they have to disagree
10:01and i really like that as the blend between trading so when you've got nine people that are
10:08in agreement that something an event is going to happen or not going to happen the 10th person always
10:13has to take the other side and they have to find out everything they can about why the other nine
10:19people might be wrong and it's a fantastic way of thinking about trading
10:24so when we have these assumptions when we have these beliefs when we have these things that we
10:30believe very very quickly right we take them on board very quickly and suddenly we're basing our
10:35whole trading ideology around them very important that we can be the 10th person
10:41that stands up and says why are you wrong why should you challenge that belief
10:48so i hope this video made sense and i hope this video prompts you to think more about some of
10:55the decisions that you make and some of the ways that we can cling on to decisions once we've made them
11:00and i'll leave this video here any questions as always please just tag me i'll be happy to answer