00:00Talking Saquon Barkley, I think we can all agree the Eagles probably have the most potent offense on the Super Bowl. Right. So here we go. Regular season rushing yards. The over-under is 1,400 and a half, obviously eclipsed this last season. The number at minus 114. This is more about, Joe, your thoughts on Barkley having a deep regression this year, correct?
00:19It is. And it's not because I want it to happen. I just want to make everybody understand. It's not because I'm willing it to happen. It's just sometimes the data is so strong that you have to just pay attention to it. And I don't think it's just a fade in fantasy. If I have a first round pick, I'm just not spending it on Saquon Barkley in the first 10 picks. If he's there at the turn or somewhere on there, I consider it. Same with Christian McCaffrey. He's had injuries before. He's coming off a season of 436 combined carries over the postseason.
00:49Excuse me, and the regular season. Then on top of that, we also caught the football a ton, right? So we're in a well over 500 in terms of touches. And if you go back and you look at the context over the last 25 years, DeMarco Murray, Eddie George, Sean Alexander, Sean Alexander, by the way, who was 2005 MVP, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Edron James, Curtis Martin, Arian Foster, Amon Green, Jamal Lewis a second time. None of those guys after 400 carries finishes RB1s the next year.
01:19That's a lot. So it's really hard to find in this modern day of the NFL. This is not Walter Payton. This is not Earl Campbell, right? The game has changed quite a bit. So the fact that you're getting 1400 on this one, even if he misses, let's say, three, four games, potentially, you could see this number cut down underneath.
01:38I think, I think this is an under, to be honest with you. I would fade this to the under based on how they use him. And also based upon the track record of all those names I just listed that went well over 400 carries in the next year, just could not get it done.
01:52And nobody thought that Sean Alexander wasn't be good in 2006, right? Everybody thought, oh, it's the league MVP. Let's take him first overall. Same thing with Saquon Barkley. We have to get out of our heads, look at the data and say, it's more likely than not that he finishes under this number.
02:06All right. I love it. Let's continue here. This is going to be a good one because we're looking at a team that has a great offensive line and a strong defense talking about Denver, their primary receiver. Their wide receiver one is Cortland Sutton, the regular season receiving yards over under 900 and a half. I do believe he beat that last year, minus 114.
02:25I mean, if teams double Sutton, I mean, you have Mims, you have Ingram. Talk to me about this.
02:30You have RJ Harvey. You have a lot of guys and Cortland Sutton to me is a copy and paste season. Look, he's clearly the favorite target of Bo Nix. 135 of them last year caught 81 balls for 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns. I think this season is easily repeatable. I think 900 is too little. I think they're factoring too much and giving too much credit to Mims, too much credit to Evan Ingram who couldn't get on the field last year.
02:53To me, this is an opportunity not only to draft Cortland Sutton as your third or maybe even fourth wide receiver in some leagues, but also to look at a value where he is clearly the number one guy. There's no competition there for that job.
03:05And I think this is a season where he could not only basically do what he did last year, but maybe even go better because September was rough for Bo Nix. I think people forget that. So he finishes wide receiver 13 last year overall in half PPR. He's being drafted as wide receiver 22.
03:20It's a huge value. It's a huge value. I'm over on Cortland Sutton's 900 and a half.
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