The stock market may be due for reality check

The market may be overestimating the resilience of the economy.

Transcript

00:00Stocks are back really near all-time highs. Would you say the market is overestimating

00:05the resilience of the consumer and the economy then?

00:09Yeah, I think so. I mean, part of that is just the AI, right, and driving a lot of activity

00:17among a very small group of companies that have done very, very well. And that's running on its

00:23own dynamic. It has nothing to do with the business cycle. That is just completely independent. And

00:27that helps to lift the entire market. I think if you exclude that group, then the rest of the market

00:35is more representative of kind of the thinking around what's going on with earnings and companies

00:39and interest rates and that kind of thing. There's more of the increases in stock prices are more

00:43pedestrian. But even that, I suspect, you know, markets are now, investors are now at a place

00:48where they listen to people like me and they say, okay, I hear you. But, you know, I got to see it,

00:53show me. And so they're waiting to see it in the data before, you know, they respond. But I think

00:59they'll see it in the data. I'm confident that they will. And so it wouldn't be surprising to me

01:04if we saw, you know, some sell-off in parts of the market. But again, the folks, the companies that

01:12are in the world of artificial intelligence and everything that drives that and benefits from that,

01:16that's running independently of everything else.