00:00Mayan, kung naipa rin po ng SONA ng ating Pangulo, makakausap po natin sa linya ng telepono si Michael Ricofort, our CBC Chief Economist. Sir, good morning po.
00:09Ay, magandang magas po. Audrey and Daniel at siya yung mga taga-tabay-bay po.
00:14Okay, sir, katanungan po, umangat po ng 5.4% ang GDP ng bansa nitong first quarter. Ano-ano po yung mga dahilan ng paglago ng ating ekonomiya?
00:25Pagka siya maganda po yung demographics natin, no? Kasi we're still, kahit one of the fastest growing economies, kasi had it not made more inflation, pati yung mga external risk factors, eh, nasa mga 6 to 7% dapat yan, no?
00:41Kasi pagka sa demographic sweet spot po tayo, meaning to say, majority ng populasyon natin, working age na, more than 50 million Filipinos.
00:49Kaya, we're one of the fastest growing economies, no? This has happened, like, for the past 10 years already.
00:55In fact, bago mag-pandemic, yung average growth natin, 6 to, at least 6%, no? From 2012 to 2019.
01:03And, yun, tingnan natin yung coming years, no? Lalo na pong yung inflation, lalo pang mag-slowdown, no?
01:09And that would lead to, siyempre, faster, ano yun, more incomes, more spending power.
01:15Siyempre, employment din po natin is still among the best in, like, almost 20 years.
01:20So, yung unemployment rate natin, 3.9, yung, below 4% na.
01:26At sa, lumanapit na yan, more developed na Asian economies, no?
01:30Kaya, yun, marami pong employed na Filipinos.
01:33And, kasi, bata yung populasyon natin.
01:35Our population is the 12 largest in the world, more than 114 million Filipinos.
01:39And, bata yan, it's below, average age is below 25 years old.
01:43Kaya, imagine nyo, no?
01:45Kung bata yung populasyon, dumadami yung may hanap buhay, yung working age, no?
01:49Yung pwedeng kumita, pwedeng gumastos.
01:51Kaya, ano, mabilis pong yung ekonomiya natin.
01:53Siyempre, they would purchase vehicles, they would purchase mga bahay, mag-shop yan, mag-invest yan, mag-travel yan.
02:00Kaya, ayun, consumer-driven yung economy natin.
02:0375% of our economy is consumer spending.
02:07And, yung ibang metrics pa po natin.
02:10Halimbawa, yung inflation, nag-slowdown na to 1.4%.
02:14Ito pong yung latest nung Junyo.
02:17At, ang average sa inflation, or pag-tas, precious, 1.8%.
02:21Kaya, yun, habang nag-slowdown yung inflation,
02:24eh, lalong, eh, mas mabilis yung paglagunang kita ng ekonomiya.
02:29So, yun po yung tumut na gaambag po sa, ano, natin, no?
02:32Sa economic fundamentals na natin na may descent.
02:35Still, one of the fastest growing pa rin po sa ASEAN at Asia.
02:39Despite, ah, kasi ang challenge po ngayon, yung kaya Trump, eh,
02:42yung higher tariffs, yung mga trade wars,
02:45ah, maaaring magpabagal sa mga exports, sa world trade,
02:48naging, wait and see pa rin po tayo sa tarif ni Trump by August 1, no?
02:52And, ah, ah, yung other factors, ah, like locally, ah,
02:57tuloy pa rin yung growth ng remittances, no?
03:00That's $40 billion per year.
03:03Ang average growth niya, ah, nearly 3%, no?
03:06Mas mabilis pa rin doon sa population growth natin na less than 1%, mga 0.9, no?
03:12Ah, tapos, yung BPO, patuloy pa rin, yung BPO revenues, patuloy pa rin po yung lagu niya,
03:18yung paglago, that's $40 billion per year din.
03:21And yung tourism receipts natin, no?
03:23Yung mga foreign tourism kinikita, eh, nag-record na yun na po na $13 billion last year, no?
03:29Kaya, mataas yung ranking natin sa mga, yun, yung ngayon po yung mga services,
03:32yung kinikita natin, other than yung, ano, yung mga dollar earnings ng Pilipinas,
03:37in tax remittances were number four in the world after, ah, India, Mexico, and China, no?
03:44Pang-apat tayo pinakamalaki, kasi yung pinakamalaking source tayo ng, ah, nurse, eh, no?
03:49At least 25%, biggest source po ang Pilipinas sa buong mundo, ilan-aging population.
03:55Ah, ang seafarers natin, yung mga nagbabarko, ito, ah, maritime workers, ah,
04:00ah, pinakamalaki rin po yung galing sa Pilipinas, supplying the, ano, yung, parang ngailangan ng buong mundo,
04:0620 to 25%, no?
04:07BPO, we're number two in the world after, ah, India.
04:12And, ah, sa call center, that's 70 to 80% ng, ah, BPO natin, we're number one.
04:17Di tayo mauna-unahan doon, no?
04:19Kaya, the biggest banks in the world, yan, nag-outsource dito, no?
04:22At, ah, patuloy pa rin po yung paglagun yan, yung, yung BPO, it's already employing 1.82 million Pilipinos.
04:30Samantalang 2004, mga 21 years ago, nagsimula na po yan sa 100,000 BPO workers.
04:37So, ngayon, from 100,000 at 21 years ago, ngayon, 1.82 million, and it's still growing, no?
04:43Yung kita niyan, yung kita ng BPO, it, mga, noong 2004, it was only $1 billion per year.
04:50Last year, $38 billion.
04:52Mga two years back, mga $35 billion.
04:55Ngayon, this year, $40 billion.
04:57Kaya, ayun po yung mga nagdadala po ng ekonomiya natin, no?
05:00Ah, medyo maganda yung credit ratings natin.
05:03One to three notches above the minimum investment grade.
05:06Yung dalawang Japanese credit rating agency, A-.
05:09Ayun po yung sumutotal ng rating ng Pilipinas, no?
05:11Kasi, yung mga foreign investors, bago silang mag-invest ng billions of pesos or dollars,
05:18ayun ang tinitignan po nila, yung JCR ng Japan, A-, mula pa po yan five years ago, June of 2000, no?
05:25Kata sa ganang pandemic, A- na po, that's three notches above the minimum investment grade.
05:29Darun din po yung R&I a few months ago, A-.
05:32Yung FNP, na credit rating agency, mula ng November 2020, positive na po yung outlaw from 3-4B plus.
05:39In one to two years' time, mga around 2,000 by next year, pwede niya naggawin A-.
05:45Alright, maraming salamat po sa lahat ng impormasyon.
06:01Nakapalingan po natin si Sir Michael Ricoford, mula sa RCBC, RCBC Chief Economist.
