00:00Hi, welcome back to Consider This, I'm Melissa Idris.
00:13Let's continue our discussion about the new measures that were announced by the Prime Minister this morning.
00:18Part of efforts to, if I may quote him, alleviate the cost of living, the cost of living burden
00:23and as a gesture of appreciation and celebration for the people.
00:28End quote. Joining me on the show now to discuss this further is Ibrahim Sufyan,
00:32who is more affectionately known as Ben.
00:35He is the co-founder and programs director of Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research.
00:41Ben, thank you so much for joining me on the show today.
00:44What did you make of the series of interventions that were announced this morning
00:49that were aimed at easing the cost of living crisis?
00:52Was it what you were expecting?
00:54Because I know many people who had thought it was going to be a four-day work week.
00:59They really thought it was going to be that announcement.
01:01What did you think? Did this live up to your expectations?
01:05Well, I think it's a bit of a surprise.
01:08In fact, because number one, it is officially near the midterm of the government right now.
01:14And it is a surprise for the way the government has presented itself
01:19that they've created this little bit of drama about what they were going to say
01:24in appreciation to the public.
01:27And I think pleasantly surprised.
01:30And in the sense that somehow they managed to muster some resources
01:34to reduce the prices of petrol and also the cash transfers among the other measures.
01:41But I think two measures are the ones that I think people are talking about right now
01:46as the news unfolds.
01:48Right.
01:49I know a lot of people talking about the public holiday as well, Ben.
01:53Can I?
01:54But a lot of people I learned had already, you know, applied for leave
01:59because it's, yeah, but then, you know, that's, I think, a pleasant surprise as well.
02:05But I think the petrol price, I think, you know, speaks of how I think the government
02:09is trying to respond to critics about, you know, what they've been talking about in the past
02:16and not making good on that.
02:18I think they're trying to at least assuage members of the sceptical public
02:22that they are trying to reduce the burden on the rakyat.
02:27Can you talk to me about that?
02:28The saya ulang catchphrase that was used as a teaser to this announcement.
02:34We know that Anwar had used this quite a fair bit and it was a sore, a sticking point,
02:39a sore spot for him in terms of his promise to reduce the price of petrol.
02:44Talk to us a little bit about the significance of the fact that he could now say
02:48it is going to be lower petrol prices. Is this considered a win for Anwar?
02:53Can he claim victory over this?
02:56Well, I think jury's still out there. You know, at the end of the day,
02:59Malaysians are, many people have high expectations on government.
03:04I think of late, you know, coming to your question, of late,
03:08there's been a lot of supporters of Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Harapan
03:12who say that they were disappointed over many, many things
03:16about unmet reform expectations and so on and so forth.
03:20But I think the one sticking point that greats, I think, people in politics,
03:27particularly those surrounding the Prime Minister,
03:29is the fact that at every single opportune moment,
03:32the opposition has always needled him on the fact that he once promised
03:37that if he became Prime Minister, he would reduce the prices of fuel.
03:41And that keeps people reminded all the time.
03:46And I think it's particularly interesting that he's chosen this moment
03:49because when we look at the surveys that we've done in the past,
03:53actually, you know, Malaysian public is divided into two segments.
03:58The people who were aware of Anwar in the pre-reformasi days
04:02and those that came after.
04:04Those people that came after only remember Anwar in terms of what's being displayed
04:08and kept on the internet and unfortunately, it's about his promise
04:12to turunkan harga minyak.
04:14And so, I think by doing this, this gesture, at least for the time being,
04:19he would have been able to say he's kept his promise,
04:22that he's done something about it.
04:24Remains to be seen how many percentage of the crowd out there
04:29are made happy, neutralized by this action.
04:32I think it will still end up being positive for him
04:36and at least he's making the attempt.
04:40But for others, people will say that he's just responsive,
04:43he's not far-reaching, he's not a transformative way of spending public funds.
04:51Okay, that's interesting.
04:52I was going to say,
04:54janji ditepati, but I realise that's the wrong slogan
04:57for the wrong government in power.
04:59But can I ask you, Ben, what you make of the timing of all of this?
05:03So, we had spoken earlier to Dr Razman of Putra Business School
05:07about the announcements coming ahead of Budget 2026,
05:11just months before what we would have expected
05:15would traditionally be announced in Budget.
05:17But this is also quite crucial because it's coming ahead of the planned protests
05:22on Saturday calling for Anwar to step down,
05:26the Turun Anwar Rally.
05:28What do you make of the timing of this announcement?
05:31Yeah, it's unfortunate that the timing of this,
05:33which marks the middle of the current political term,
05:38also coincides with the rally.
05:40Based on what we're looking at right now,
05:43there is an overwhelming support for the rally.
05:47The Prime Minister's rating is still relatively stable.
05:51You know, it's doing generally okay.
05:54It's lower than the 55% we announced a month and a half ago,
05:59but it's not that far off.
06:02So, it's still generally okay.
06:04So, there isn't like a great deal of people walking around unhappy
06:08and, you know, raring to go to the protest.
06:10I think the protest will have to really organize
06:14and persuade supporters of the opposition to show up.
06:19In fact, I think large majority of Malaysians actually
06:23appreciate the stability that we have right now
06:28and also appreciate that the government is trying very hard
06:32to get investors in, trying to get things to move.
06:36And this is no mean feat.
06:38And I think the sticky things with inflation and wages,
06:44I think that's something that's systemic
06:46and needs a long-haul approach.
06:49So, the timing, you know, it's unfortunate that it's ahead
06:55of the protest.
06:55So, a lot of people are going to connect the two dots
06:58that perhaps this is in response to the protest.
07:00Although, I think it's not necessarily going to be
07:03a very large protest.
07:05You don't think the timing was intentional
07:07to maybe deter some people from joining the protest?
07:12I wouldn't put past it, you know,
07:14because it is, I would say, a moment of reckoning
07:18for political leaders, you know,
07:21when you have their competition,
07:23trying to organize the protest.
07:25And the last time when large protests were organized
07:27by Barisan National UMNO and PAS
07:31during the PH 1.0 government,
07:34it actually precipitated the deal
07:35and subsequently the collapse of that government.
07:39So, we're not downplaying the importance of protest.
07:43However, I think where we are now,
07:45it's at the point when the economy
07:47is generally recovering
07:48and things are fairly stable.
07:51And also, the coalition partners in government,
07:53they seem to be working generally okay.
07:55You know, it's, they don't have any major issues
07:58working with one another
08:00and also seems to be pretty well coordinated.
08:05Beyond that, I think we also are looking
08:07at potential elections in Sabah
08:09that may happen perhaps sometime
08:12at the end of quarter three of this year.
08:14And so, having this statement
08:16which occurs before the budget,
08:21I think that puts something ahead
08:23of the Sabah state elections.
08:25Ben, you mentioned just now,
08:26you cited the Merdeka Centre midterm survey
08:29for the Madani administration
08:32in which Anwar Ibrahim's approval rating
08:36was at 55%.
08:36That was back in May.
08:38Can you talk to me a little bit
08:39about where you see that trajectory heading?
08:41He has had, the Prime Minister has had
08:43a really rough month of June or July
08:46with the SST implementation,
08:50the electricity tariffs,
08:52with the judicial crisis,
08:53with Rafizi and Nick Nazmi leaving cabinet.
08:57It's been a rocky month
08:58for the Madani administration.
09:00Do you think that you will see that trending
09:03in the approval ratings going forward?
09:06Right.
09:06I think with respect to public approval
09:08of the government and leaders,
09:09what we noticed is that the public responses
09:12more strongly towards economic measures.
09:15So, when we did the survey that was published,
09:17it was a survey carried out
09:18at the end of May last year.
09:20And that took place during the time
09:21of the PKR party elections.
09:24Subsequent to that,
09:24we have announcement of the expansion of the SST.
09:27And at the end of June,
09:29all of these numbers eventually will be carried out.
09:31At the end of June,
09:32we noticed that the figure for the Prime Minister
09:34had dipped to about 50%.
09:35And it's not really because of,
09:41I think a little bit is due to what happened
09:43inside the party with the departure of Rafizi,
09:46Nick Nazmi,
09:47and the whole kerfuffle, you know, about PKR.
09:50But a lot of it is with relationship to three things.
09:54So, economic measures,
09:56expansion of the SST,
09:57electricity tariffs,
09:58and also the introduction of e-invoicing
10:00for small businesses.
10:03And what we're noticing in a survey
10:05that we're carrying out right now,
10:07it's not yet completed.
10:09I think it should be completed by Sunday.
10:11We noticed that the numbers are coming back.
10:13It's improving a little bit.
10:15And maybe it's still too early to tell
10:17because some people are telling us that
10:19cost of living impact from SST
10:22in terms of increased inflation,
10:24that may not transpire immediately.
10:27There might be a lag effect
10:28of one month or two months.
10:30So, we'll still see that.
10:32And electricity tariffs as well.
10:34People are only going to see
10:36any changes in their bills
10:37at the end of July.
10:39So, maybe next week.
10:40But for e-invoicing,
10:42that's very clear.
10:43When we talk to people in business,
10:45a lot of people are,
10:46I want to say angry,
10:49but, you know,
10:51stressed out
10:52because of it's being implemented.
10:54being implemented.
10:56But my sense is,
10:58once these things are underway
11:00and if the effect on inflation
11:02is somewhat moderate to low,
11:06then eventually the numbers will
11:08turn up again,
11:10will improve again
11:11in about three months' time.
11:12Last year,
11:13when the government
11:14reduced the diesel subsidies
11:16for West Malaysia,
11:17we noticed that
11:19the ratings,
11:20approvals dipped as well
11:21in June, July.
11:22But by September,
11:23it crept up again.
11:25So, it came back
11:25because suddenly it realized
11:27that the effect on inflation
11:28wasn't as bad
11:28as people had thought it would be.
11:31Okay.
11:31Well, Ben,
11:32thank you so much
11:32for speaking with me.
11:33Always a pleasure
11:34to have you on the show.
11:35Ibrahim Sufyan
11:36from Merdeka Centre there
11:37wrapping up this episode
11:39of Consider This.
11:40I'm Melissa Idris
11:41signing off for the evening.
11:42Thank you so much for watching.
11:43Good night.
11:47Thank you so much for watching.
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