Bitcoin Price Elliott Wave Price Update: Understanding the Bullish and Bearish BTC Scenarios

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Transcript

00:00Oh and welcome to another update video on Bitcoin. We are looking at the larger time frame here,

00:07the daily time frame. Just briefly, Bitcoin continues to be in this triangle pattern.

00:11To be fair, the triangle has changed a little bit since yesterday because the price is messing

00:17around here with the trend lines a bit. But these trend lines are not so important. Also not so

00:23important from an Elliott Wave point of view because these trend lines, as long as the

00:31market is holding here and forming higher lows, lower highs, this could be technically a triangle.

00:36But as I explained in the last video, I'm not even sure if this is actually an Elliott Wave triangle

00:41itself or just something that looks visually like a triangle. The difference is huge because from an

00:47Elliott Wave point of view then, we should only be doing corrective structures up and down and form

00:54higher lows and lower highs. But triangles are unreliable and I think it actually counts better

00:59as another one-two setup to the upside that we see on the smaller time frame. I'm going to show you that

01:03in a minute. So we have some interesting developments since yesterday. But overall, yeah, Bitcoin remains

01:09in bullish mode. That's reflected by the sentiment in the community I asked you guys yesterday and

01:18honestly, feel free to join us here as well on X. I asked you guys what is going to be price action

01:24this week. Yeah, describe in one GIF. People overall seem to be happy. So if you want to give your opinion

01:35and share with the community followers on X here. But yeah, overall, still some bullish

01:45opinions there. So that's always good to measure sentiment that way as well, you know. But that's

01:52what we see right now. I mean, we're still holding in that range. And the idea is still that we could

01:57go higher towards the 130k level. That hasn't changed.

01:59And we want to take a look at the Bitcoin dominance chart as well. So on this chart here,

02:08on the daily chart, really nothing has changed. Just a little bit of up and down in this sideways

02:12triangle. Please note, it doesn't need to be an Elliott wave triangle. And what would really

02:18break it for me? I mean, really break the overall idea of a rally to around about 130k.

02:25What would that break for me? Well, it's a break below 107k. You know, this 107k area down

02:34here, these previous swing lows, specifically here, the July lows, a decisive break below

02:39that. Because if we break above that level, I can also, or I would have to start to rule

02:45out a diagonal pattern. At the moment, I'm tracking the move up as an impulse. But we are kind

02:52of in the last wave of the last wave of this cycle, at least that's my assumption. So if

02:57we start to break something, it could be a big, big warning that the long term top has

03:02formed. Okay, just want to say that very clearly. That doesn't mean, however, that I'm expecting

03:07a pullback here necessarily. No, I'm still, as you can see, based on the wave structure,

03:11I'm still looking for higher prices. But it's just important to understand that we're at

03:15a point where there isn't a lot of buffer left. Because if Bitcoin breaks key levels here,

03:21it could really mean that a long term top has formed. Yeah, just because of the long

03:25term chart. So let us take a look at the shorter time frame, or rather, Bitcoin dominance first.

03:33Bitcoin dominance yesterday at the same time, I looked at Bitcoin dominance with you. And

03:38we said that Bitcoin is likely, or Bitcoin dominance should move towards 60.2%. We still

03:45see an ongoing decline there. I mean, we're nearly there. Why did we say that? Well, because

03:50it looks impulsive to the downside, and we're still below resistance. And 60.2% is the next

03:58support level, just structural support, where the market found, or rather the Bitcoin value,

04:07Bitcoin dominance value, found support in February and March. So we're just approaching those levels

04:14again. But it appears that the wave count to the downside also is incomplete. So I mean,

04:20I'm just sketching how a five wave move down would look like. I mean, this just is giving you tendencies.

04:27And overall, it would be nice to get a five wave move down filled in, maybe a quick bounce before we

04:32go down lower. So something like five waves down, three waves up, and then continuation to the downside,

04:39right. So that's how I'm tracking it. Resistance has been slightly adjusted. Again, not saying that

04:46we have to test resistance, but so long as we stay below 63.3%, the pressure seems downward. Let us

04:54now also take a look at the shorter timeframe for BTC. Some interesting developments here. Since the

05:00last video update, the prices formed a potential five wave move up on the nano level. So it's another

05:07upside reversal attempt. Now, this could be a five wave move up. I thought it would be. And then

05:13I looked at it in detail. I mean, you can easily call it three waves as well, right? That's the

05:18problem. So but this could be one, two, three, four, five. I just want to share it with you when I see it.

05:25But I could also say, hmm, is this an A, B, and then one, two, three, four, five in C. But then the C

05:33wave would be very extended. But yeah, so I mean, I'm not I don't find this very reliable.

05:40As I said yesterday, the probabilities are quite high, we're going to spend some time in this range.

05:45But Bitcoin is just making the next attempt. $117,213 is the key level that should hold to keep this

05:53upside attempt alive. I'm not fully convinced. You know, I'm I was also not convinced by the move up

06:00from the Friday low. But when we see in this area, a reversal signal, like we just need some upside

06:07momentum from here, then this would be something to take very seriously. For now. Yeah, this is just

06:16something that could be a five wave move up that I'm not fully convinced about. Looks a little bit

06:22more like three waves. But again, it rallied above previous highs, but not above our signal line. So remember,

06:29there's our signal line here at around 121k that I said to you yesterday, we want to see broken

06:36in order to really get that breakout signal. Now, obviously, a break above that intraday high

06:42at around $119,650 here, yeah, would be a first real signal that a low has formed in this wave two.

06:54So that's how we are currently tracking here the Bitcoin chart. I hope you liked the update. If you did,

06:59please hit the like button, leave a comment and subscribe. And if you really like the content,

07:04then please check out the channel membership. Also, in case you want to join us on X, feel free to do so.

07:10I'll post the link in the description and in the comment section. Thanks so much. Bye bye.

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