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00:00Welcome to our number two live right here on this Monday morning on the early line on SportsGrid.
00:06He is Donnie Wright's side. I am Ben Stevens.
00:09Major League Baseball is at the All-Star break on this Monday night in Hotlanta.
00:15It'll be the Home Run Derby. Tomorrow is the Midsummer Classic,
00:18and it allows us some time to reset where the big stand at the All-Star break.
00:24First half of the season. I say that in air quotes because, of course,
00:28every team in Major League Baseball, all 30 clubs, have played at least 95 games.
00:34We are well past that midway point of 162.
00:38We'll reset where the markets are. Of course, the Chase Free World Series.
00:43Before that, the pennant prices, and of course, some award markets here at the All-Star break as well.
00:48And then later on, DRS, in this hour number two, the coach, J.Y. James Young,
00:53joins us to go around the WNBA, some Summer League action, and an offseason in the association as well.
01:01Plenty in store here in this second hour.
01:04I was watching a little Quinterly and Beckers yesterday go back and forth,
01:08a little Caitlin Clark, Sophia Cunningham.
01:10I mean, look, the WNBA might carry us through this week here as we have it.
01:13And also, like, sports sort of shut down, but still the hot topics keep through.
01:18And sooner than later, we'll be in football season.
01:19We understand that.
01:20But also, I also want to ask this question to the people out here, Ben.
01:23Like, the Home Run Derby is tonight.
01:25Like, again, we all love home runs.
01:27We do.
01:27Like, growing up as a kid, you used to meet your friends at the ballpark and be like,
01:31hey, we're going to play Home Run Derby today.
01:32It was, like, the greatest thing.
01:33Like, everybody likes home runs.
01:34Every baseball game that you rent, what are you looking to do?
01:37Or buy, I should say.
01:38Hit a home run or play the Home Run Derby type of game on it.
01:40Are there people out there?
01:41Because Home Run Derby is long tonight.
01:43If you're not betting on Home Run Derby, are you actually watching it all the way through?
01:47Because, heck, even like I bet it in the past, it's like,
01:49if this is too long to even watch, I'll fall asleep and I'll wake up and check my account
01:53to see if my guy actually won.
01:54Does anybody actually watch it, Ben, all the way through if they don't have a bet?
01:58Like, I'm just a baseball fan and I want to watch?
02:01It's extremely long.
02:03It is a long time.
02:05They have, of course, changed up the format.
02:07Not a number of pitches, but a timer now in direct head-to-head matchups.
02:11Are they still doing the bracket?
02:13I guess we'll discuss with Tom Vecchio a little bit later on.
02:16And, of course, we'll start to break down the Derby.
02:19You know, DRS, I always enjoy the Home Run Derby.
02:22This week, I always think of very fondly.
02:24It feels like summer.
02:26It's nostalgic from when you are a kid.
02:28It's summer break.
02:29You're hanging out.
02:30You turn it on to watch the Derby, the All-Star game, and the ESPYs later this week.
02:35It loses some of its allure.
02:38No bracket anymore.
02:40I just learned from our producer extraordinaire, Joe Frizo.
02:43Speaking of the WMEA, two games tonight, DRS, neither on national television.
02:49And just so you know, we get to the WMEA All-Star break at the conclusion of a quintuple header.
02:55That's five games of action on Wednesday.
02:57So, we have, in total, this week, nine games in the W, two on national television.
03:05Two on national television.
03:08And both feature the Indiana Fever.
03:10Go ahead.
03:11Well, at least they're both with the Fever at that point.
03:13But this is a week that you should be able to shine.
03:14Like, you should plan your other leagues around the All-Star break.
03:17Because if there's not much to watch, this is your chance to do.
03:20Like, to be honest, Ben, you know what camp week should have been?
03:23It should have been this week in the WNBA.
03:24Like, nothing going on at, like, you have the center stage in the afternoon where nobody's watching everything.
03:30That's where you can start.
03:31Because people are handicappers.
03:32People are gamblers.
03:33Even if they don't like the WNBA.
03:36Hey, Mike, I'm giving a Jones.
03:38Let me put 10, 15 bucks down.
03:39I'll take the Fever.
03:40I'll take Caitlin Clark over two and a half, three-point shots made.
03:42Whatever it is, you know, over 13 and a half B-bounds for Angel Reese.
03:46Like, you will tune in.
03:47And all it takes for you to watch one game, like, you know what?
03:50I won 10 bucks.
03:51That was fun.
03:52Oh, tomorrow there's two more games on?
03:53I'll watch that as well.
03:54Like, that's a – I'm not saying you build a fan base long-term that way because people certainly will go back to the sports they have.
03:59But if you have a week where you can really just take center stage and say, hey, some people that might not have liked our product will tune in.
04:05Like, you know what?
04:06If that's on, I'll watch it.
04:07It's a simple business strategy that maybe they're passing over and they shouldn't be.
04:11We do have some camp day action this week, though.
04:14It should be noted in Chicago, Minnesota, and Seattle on Wednesday.
04:18There we go.
04:18Okay.
04:19Those early matinee games on Wednesday, especially when things quiet down, even after our all-star festivities this week in Atlanta.
04:27BRS, all-star break time.
04:30Every team, as we have shared, has played at least 95 games around Major League Baseball.
04:35Well past that midway point of 81 in a long sprint.
04:39That is 162 of MLB.
04:42Let's look at where the World Series odds were back on opening day at the end of March and where they are currently as we enter the all-star break following the final weekend ahead of the all-star break.
04:56The Dodgers have always been the short favorites.
04:59That's exactly where they reside.
05:0120 cents even shorter than their opening day price at plus 240.
05:05Of course, the Dodgers snapping a seven-game slide on Saturday, won the final two games of their final weekend set against the rivals in the Giants and DRS.
05:14Despite the struggles entering this final weekend, Dodgers still have the best record in the National League, even if it's been slightly underwhelming.
05:22Win total for L.A. remains at 100 and a half.
05:25It was 104 and a hook entering the year.
05:28We'll get to the teams that have had their numbers look shorter.
05:31Dodgers shorter.
05:32Yankees shorter.
05:34Phillies shorter.
05:35Mets slightly longer by two bucks.
05:38The Orioles a ton longer than the Astros shorter, nearly slashed in half, 18 to one to 10 to one.
05:44But DRS, there is no doubt when you look at Baltimore and Atlanta, and we'll start with Atlanta because that's where the all-star game is this week inside Truist Park.
05:54They have been the most disappointing team in a large, large way this year.
05:58Second best place to win a World Series before this year got started only behind L.A.
06:03And now that number, 120 to one.
06:07More than likely, the Braves are going to miss out on the postseason.
06:11They are 42 and 53.
06:1311 games below 500 at the all-star break.
06:16It's been a disastrous season in the A.
06:18No, it certainly has, and there's no reason for it here, right?
06:22Oh, they lost A.J. Smith-Shauver.
06:24Stop the madness, man.
06:25People deal with injuries all the time and guys going down specifically, not top, top of the rotation guys.
06:31And there's no excuse for this lineup.
06:32Ronald Acuna came back.
06:33He's healthy.
06:34When you look at player for player for player, it's a very good lineup, but just not performing.
06:38But also, when you look at the future for the Braves, very good front office, as we understand.
06:42There's some pieces that I guess they can move at the deadline to sort of retool for next year.
06:46But what are the expectations then for next year?
06:48I don't understand.
06:49Strider's supposed to be an MVP slash, you know, Cy Young candidate.
06:53Right behind him, Schwellenbach's supposed to be great.
06:54Chris Sale comes back.
06:55He's fantastic.
06:57Acuna's great.
06:58Profar is not getting popped for Royce next year.
07:00Do you see where I'm going then with all these question marks?
07:02Like, where does this actually improve for Atlanta?
07:04Because you are what your record says you are.
07:06Like, they're healthy and intact and still not playing good baseball.
07:10Twelve and a half games back at the end of the regular season.
07:13Like, yeah, they just didn't have it this year.
07:14They're twelve and a half games back at the all-star break.
07:16So, if we're just going by the law of averages, there'll be 25 games back by the time the season ends.
07:22Nobody anticipated that for the Atlanta Braves.
07:23I'm not saying they're going to finish 25 games back, but there's something you can't quite put your finger on.
07:29Like, what actually happened in Atlanta?
07:30A great organization, always competitive, just seems like on a night-to-night basis, they don't have it.
07:35Whether it's their pitching staff falling apart, whether it's their clothes are blowing a save,
07:39or more importantly, that lineup, which is talented, just doesn't come through in the right moments here.
07:43That's never – 42 and 53 at the break, never saw that coming here, Ben.
07:47Uh-uh.
07:48Again, 11 games below .500.
07:51And DRS, it's not exactly like the Phils or the Mets are running away with the division,
07:55leading to a 12-and-a-half game advantage.
07:57Atlanta has just been that bad.
07:59Not only 12-and-a-half back in the division, nine-and-a-half back of what would be the final wild-card spot
08:06that the San Diego Padres currently occupy.
08:09And in between the Padres in that final spot and where Atlanta resides, there is five teams in between.
08:15The Braves have the fourth-worst record in the National League.
08:18It's not even disappointing, but they can turn it around.
08:21It's disappointing and awful for the Braves at this moment.
08:27They started off 0-7.
08:28We asked even in this expanded postseason in Major League Baseball,
08:33could Atlanta make a run to get to the playoffs?
08:36DRS, the price now on the Braves to earn a National League postseason spot is 13-1.
08:42Not going to happen.
08:43The Baltimore Orioles DRS, second-best price to win the American League pennant before this year got started.
08:5016-1 to win the World Series.
08:53310-1 at the All-Star break.
08:58Of course, the O's lost both of their final games this weekend against the Marlins.
09:02They were playing slightly better baseball, but still well below .500 and in the cellar of the American League East.
09:08We'll talk a little bit more about Baltimore and then some teams maybe with some optimism here at the All-Star break next on the Early Hour.
09:16Major League Baseball at the All-Star break where the World Series odds were on opening day at the beginning or the late portion of March, I should say, and where they are right now.
09:27DRS on the left side are actually every team involved right here.
09:30The seven best prices to win a World Series before this year got started.
09:34There are some that have seen their prices grow shorter.
09:36We'll discuss in just a moment maybe where that value is in the World Series market at the All-Star break.
09:42But, of course, two teams that you can see have had disappointing seasons in a big, big way.
09:48The Braves, the second-best price to win the World Series.
09:51Second-best price out of the National League.
09:53Now 11 games sub-500 as they get ready to host the All-Star break.
09:58Kind of a bittersweet feeling, I would say, this week in the A.
10:01And the Orioles had the second-best price out of the AL, 310-1 to win a World Series now.
10:09The O's dropped their final two games this weekend at home inside Camden Yards against the Miami Marlins,
10:15including yesterday, a beatdown in Baltimore, 11-1.
10:18They had entered the last two games, Saturday and Sunday, DRS, winning six of their last seven.
10:24The bottom this year for Baltimore, the Valley, of how many games they've been below 500.
10:29On May 28th, 19-36, 17 games sub-500.
10:35Entering Saturday, they had started to turn things around.
10:39From May 28th on, they were 24-14 before dropping their final two games.
10:44Baltimore, nine games below 500.
10:47They have stopped, I guess you could say, the worst of it.
10:50But they're still nine games below 500 and in the cellar of the American League East.
10:55Yeah, and here's why they're in the cellar.
10:57Coming into the season, the expectations on the pitching staff are, okay, well, hopefully it works out.
11:01But we know one thing's for sure.
11:03Our one through nine are going to be really competitive.
11:04We're going to put up a lot of runs.
11:06We'll just take a look at the American League East right now.
11:08Leaders, the Yankees, 501 runs.
11:10Boston Red Sox, second place, 491.
11:13Tampa Bay, of all teams, 449.
11:15The Blue Jays, 440.
11:17The Baltimore Orioles, 393 runs scored.
11:19That can't happen.
11:20Like, if your pitching staff is going to struggle, what do you need to do?
11:24You got to out-hit because let's take a look at runs allowed.
11:27Oh, why is the team in last place?
11:28Because they allowed 483 runs, a minus 90 run differential.
11:33So when you're not hitting or pitching, how the expectations are you to be in the top two or three in your own division, let alone leading it here?
11:41The numbers, again, say exactly what you are.
11:44Baltimore's not a good team, and nobody's coming to the rescue.
11:46Are we expecting a hot streak of, hey, open up winners 10 of 11 in the second half, and now we're looking at a wild card?
11:52It just feels like a team that's been dead in the water that you've been waiting on that is just never going to awaken in the 2025 season.
11:58And again, DRS, for these teams that have been wildly disappointing, especially Baltimore and Atlanta that are this far below .500, you might be thinking, hey, it's the all-star break.
12:08Let's reset.
12:09Let's go on a run.
12:10You only have fewer than 70 games remaining.
12:1370 sounds like a lot.
12:15It's not when you're trailing by nine and a half games for a wild card spot or for the O's right now in the American League, looking at those wild card standings, seven and a half game.
12:25The O's have the third worst record in the AL.
12:27The Braves, the fourth worst record in the National League.
12:31You really have to get red hot, like we're talking eight, ten wins in a row, basically pull off what the Red Sox have done entering the all-star break.
12:40So as we look at those World Series prices, DRS, Dodgers, such a short favorite.
12:45The Tigers, despite losing four straight entering the break, have the best record in Major League Baseball and the second best price at plus 750.
12:52The Yankees have been okay as of late, but of course struggled to end out June.
12:57We have talked about the Phils earlier.
12:59They can't hit right now.
13:01The Astros play much better baseball, but a weird final week where they were swept by the Guardians and then a rivalry this weekend against the Rangers.
13:09Cubbies maintain a one-game lead in the division.
13:12The Brewers, the hottest team in the National League.
13:14They've won seven straight.
13:15The Mariners just swept the Tigers, and they've got Big Dumber and the Blue Jays, a two-game lead for the American League East.
13:21DRS, all those teams, ten best prices to win the World Series.
13:25Is there a club that you point to right here at the all-star break where you're like, yeah, this is my buy-in spot right here right now.
13:31I can't wait any longer.
13:33I mean, no, I don't think there's a buy-in spot right now.
13:36Do I like the Cubs in a 12-1 price and think they're intriguing?
13:38Yes.
13:38Here's the issue.
13:39The Dodgers probably are the best overall talented team.
13:42And I will say this until I'm blue in the face, Ben.
13:45Just wait till the trade deadline.
13:46You'll know where these teams are ramped up.
13:47You know they're amped up and heading into the down stretch or back stretch of the season.
13:51How well they're playing, but more importantly, who they add on their roster.
13:53An extra bat, an extra pitcher, an extra bullpen reliever.
13:56That could change the landscape.
13:57Because let's just say like some of the rumors, like for the Philadelphia Phillies.
14:00Hey, looking to trade some prospects to get Stephen Kwan and Klasse as a closer.
14:04Ooh, that could shift it here.
14:05Or if the Dodgers block everything and just pick up Klasse themselves just because they wanted to do it,
14:10will the prospects and the unlimited funds that they have.
14:12So it's almost a wait-and-see approach where I don't want to jump in at the all-star break.
14:16I want to jump in at the trade deadline.
14:18But having said that as well, you look at the way Major League Baseball is structured.
14:21Let's just take a look at like the top seeds and let's just say it's the Dodgers.
14:25Like series number one, the wild card, what is it, a best of three?
14:27Then the NLDS goes to a best of five.
14:30We just saw the Dodgers lose close to 10 games last week.
14:32Do you see what like?
14:33It just is a matter of how you're playing at that moment.
14:36And right now, without their top line guys, 100% healthy and pitching.
14:40Because things are changing.
14:41Like Yamamoto goes the entire stretch of the season, looks fantastic.
14:44And also you take a look at, let's just say, Glass now snaps back.
14:47And then you have Shohei Otani waiting there in game number three in the NLDS, who's pitching
14:51to, I don't know, a 250 ERA.
14:53Those things will matter.
14:55So to get to your point, I'm not really skirting the issue saying, is there a team that you
14:58have to jump on right now?
14:59No, there's not.
15:00But there are some teams where you're saying, all right, baseball is not a seven-game series
15:04where the cream usually rises to the top.
15:05That wild card round is going to get trapped in the best of three.
15:08And the NLDS and the ALCS is only five games.
15:11It's just a matter of your starting pitching.
15:12Because when I talk about the Phillies, they're going to go in and throw whoever the hell they
15:16want over the first five games.
15:17And they'll all be absolute studs.
15:19But if you score one run a game, it doesn't matter.
15:21Let's see some of these teams make some changes.
15:23But if there is one intriguing team, which you can never kill, Ben, it's the Astros.
15:28It really is the Astros.
15:29It really is the Astros, DRS, I would say, from a World Series perspective.
15:34Again, Houston, an interesting final week before the All-Star break.
15:38But from June 1st, they were the best team in baseball, 24-8, before they hosted a Guardians
15:45team in their midweek set last week.
15:48Hosted in Houston, Cleveland had entered, dropping 10 in a row.
15:53And Cleveland swept the Astros.
15:56And then Houston hosted their in-state and divisional foes in the Rangers, who have awoken
16:00a little bit at the dish here, entering the All-Star break.
16:03And Texas wins the weekend, taking two of three.
16:07So Houston enters the break, dropping five of six.
16:11But I would still say the Astros look like that team.
16:14And they are still awaiting Jordan Alvarez to return as their big bopper in that offensive
16:20lineup.
16:20We'll look at the pennant prices, DRS, and make some arguments.
16:24And we'll also lay off the early peak at a playoff picture.
16:27Because again, that starts to crystallize even more following the All-Star break this week
16:33in Atlanta.
16:33So the question had to be asked here at the All-Star break in Major League Baseball, does
16:39Donnie find any value?
16:41A buy-in spot right here, right now, for a team to win a World Series?
16:45And of course, to win a World Series, you need to win a pennant.
16:48We start in the National League DRS.
16:50The Dodgers on opening day, plus 135.
16:53The Dodgers at the All-Star break, plus 120.
16:56LA, despite dropping seven consecutive games, their longest losing skid since September of
17:022017, before they won the final two games of their weekend set against the Giants, still
17:07have a five-and-a-half game lead in their division, and still have the best record in the National
17:12League by a half game in front of the Cubbies.
17:15So when you look at those prices around the NL, is there a buy-in spot where you had missed
17:21a ton of value from where the season began and where it is right now?
17:25Well, I'm not so sure, unless you really think the Milwaukee Brewers are that squad, 25-1 before
17:31the year, now 13-1.
17:33Milwaukee has won seven straight, hottest team in the National League at the All-Star break,
17:38and DRS, the top wildcard team, only trailing the Cubs by a full game in the National League
17:44Central.
17:44But when you look at these prices now, of course, you need to be in that playoff position to
17:49win a pennant, but it's a very different story come October than it is right now, even
17:54midway through July.
17:55Yeah, to win the National League pennant, you take a look at the Dodgers, who we think are
17:58the most talented team, but at a plus-120 price, that's madness at this point.
18:01Like, you know, let's just say the Dodgers don't even win the division and end up in the
18:05wildcard.
18:05That's a best of three.
18:06Then the NLDS is a best of five.
18:08Let's just say they don't end up in the wildcard and just in the NLDS because of the top
18:12seed.
18:12It's still a best of five.
18:13Like, you've seen red-hot teams consistently knock out top-level teams.
18:17So just for that, and the same thing with the Philadelphia Phillies, at least they're
18:19plus 490.
18:20If the Phillies were, let's just say the Dodgers plus 120, the Phillies are plus 200.
18:24It's like, no, I wouldn't be taking the Phillies either.
18:26So as much as I like to say the Dodgers, and they'll probably add on if we're just looking
18:30optimistically now, I'm not doing that.
18:32Like, I'm taking a better price.
18:33It's the same way we'll approach like home run derby tonight.
18:36Hey, there's eight guys in the lineup.
18:37It looks like any one of them can win it.
18:39Well, why would I take the favorite at this point?
18:40Why don't we just look down for a little bit more value, which would the Mets be valued six to
18:44one?
18:44Maybe the Cubs, I do like it six to one.
18:46But the teams like the Brewers, I don't like, like the Padres are very intriguing at 16 to
18:50one.
18:51If they make a trade for another back, they have front end pitching.
18:53They have a very good bullpen.
18:55And again, it's just about five games, seven games.
18:58It's not an entire season laid out.
19:00You just get hot at the right moment.
19:01It makes some sense.
19:02So for me right now, thinking about it, I don't want the top shelf teams with the best odds
19:07here.
19:07I'm trying to look a little bit further down that list because I know how tough it is to
19:11win in the playoffs.
19:12And if you just have a bad one or two games that could knock you out.
19:15And that's why you don't want to take a heavy favorite at that point.
19:18So right now, I love the Dodgers, but I don't love the price.
19:21And there's no way I would take them now.
19:23Now, if you ask me the same question, Ben, in three weeks at the trade deadline and the
19:27Dodgers really added on, you can get them at a plus 100 price.
19:30You go, that probably makes a little bit more sense.
19:32But there's other teams out there.
19:33The Phillies, the Mets, the Cubs, the Brewers, and the Padres, along with the Giants.
19:36They're still going to be looking to add on.
19:39And I'm looking at a team that's going to add on and still get a better price of 5, 6,
19:43or 7 to 1 or better than maybe somebody less than 5 to 1 like the Phillies or the Dodgers.
19:49The Brewers' price is basically slashed in half.
19:52The Cubbies' number 12 to 1 opening day, now 6 to 1, has actually been slashed in half.
19:59I love the Cubs offensively.
20:00We'll see what their pitching holds as we get ready for October baseball because, as DRS mentioned,
20:06right now the teams, when we do the playoff picture and the early peak at it,
20:10the two teams that would earn an opening round by are the top two teams in the National League,
20:15the top two teams in each league.
20:17We've got three wildcard teams at the expanded spots and our three divisional winners.
20:21The Dodgers and the Cubs would be those two teams that earn the opening round by advancing automatically to the NLDS.
20:28Best of five for a Dodgers staff that could be healthy, dangerous.
20:33Tyler Glass now, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Yoshi Yamamoto, Shohei Otani.
20:37Pick of the litter for Dave Roberts in the Dodgers' 1A World Series last year,
20:41despite not being fully healthy in their starting staff.
20:44You would give the edge to the Phillies as well.
20:46Do the Cubs and the Brewers have that?
20:48That's what we shall see.
20:50American League DRS, we are here now at the All-Star brand,
20:54where the Tigers have the best record in baseball,
20:56despite dropping their final four games, entering the All-Star break.
21:00And for the first time, really, two weeks ago,
21:02we saw a change in who that pennant favorite was.
21:05No longer the New York Yankees struggling into the All-Star break.
21:09The Tigers do have that shortest price.
21:11Yeah, they do.
21:12A plus-2-6, and again, just lining them up.
21:14If they do take down, let's just say, the top seed in the AL,
21:16they go to that five-game series, and it's Tarek School, but that's going to start.
21:19That's always a lightning rod right off the bat,
21:21which you figure you'll be 1-0 in any series that you have.
21:24It's just up to maybe a Flaherty or somebody to come on as a true number two
21:27that can really hold down the four.
21:29But I still look at the Houston Astros at that four-to-one price.
21:32If the Toronto Blue Jays can make a move,
21:34maybe get one more pitcher in that starting lineup.
21:37Mariners are interesting.
21:38The Boston Red Sox coming on strong.
21:39The Rays sort of fall off here.
21:41But if I'm looking again, it's probably the Astros at that four-to-one price.
21:44It just has the most intriguing team right now to bet on.
21:47Which of our four major men's professional sports leagues
21:51has the best all-star festivities?
21:53If you ask one Mr. Rightside, he would say none of them.
21:57They all stink.
21:58If you ask the public, more than 57% say Major League Baseball.
22:03It is the way that I voted as well.
22:05DRS, I think MLB has the best all-star festivities.
22:08One, because I still like the Home Run Derby.
22:11I think it rocks.
22:12It's the best for me out of a three-point contest or the dunk contest
22:16that we get in the NBA All-Star Weekend.
22:19I'm not a hockey guy, so I don't really know
22:21what All-Star Weekend looks like in the National Hockey League.
22:25And it is certainly never the Pro Bowl games with how things are in the NFL.
22:30I still think the Home Run Derby is cool.
22:32And the nostalgia of it, I always enjoy.
22:35And in terms of a game looking the closest to what we see,
22:39I think you can do that with the All-Star Game in Major League Baseball
22:43because you still have pitchers out there for an inning giving you everything they got.
22:47You've got a couple of batters trying to, best on best, put a ball in play or maybe over the yard.
22:53And then you have some additional features like the guys mic'd up and talking to them.
22:57And it's not necessarily like they're running the entire time.
23:00So you still kind of have that behind-the-scenes look.
23:03Where the game still resembles, in large part, I would say,
23:07what we would see during a normal game of 162 in MLB.
23:11Exactly. And that's the only way you have to break it down.
23:14And kudos to the people that voted for Major League Baseball.
23:16It says which has the best All-Star festivities,
23:18which means from All-Star Weekend start or All-Star Week to finish,
23:21whatever you have the weekend of the week, it doesn't matter.
23:24Because Major League Baseball, the one thing that you do get,
23:26the pitchers are out there.
23:27If they tend to throw an average fastball of 95,
23:29they're probably throwing 97 because they're actually amped up.
23:32It's the All-Star Game.
23:33They're not throwing 45 like the NBA, right?
23:35Like, hey, let's have the All-Star Game.
23:36Let's play this game at 50%.
23:38They don't do that in baseball.
23:39That's not the way it is.
23:40Like, guys want to hit.
23:41Guys want to pitch.
23:42Guys want to get their innings in.
23:43Guys want to see if they can be MVP, hit a home run or two,
23:46so it makes some sense.
23:46And also understand this.
23:48Like, Major League Baseball doesn't muck everything up,
23:50which means that they do home run derby.
23:53They don't do a, which I think would be fascinating,
23:55and nobody would participate, like the hardest pitch.
23:57Like, you know, like the hardest slap shot.
23:58You know what I mean they do in the NHL?
23:59Can you imagine five of the top pitchers in baseball
24:02trying to throw 106 to, like, break the radar?
24:04I mean, obviously their teams wouldn't appreciate that,
24:06but that might be something that you would watch.
24:09But they don't like, hey, well, have a pop time for a catcher.
24:11Throw it down to second base.
24:13Like, they don't.
24:13They say, you know what?
24:14People like home runs.
24:15We give them a home run derby.
24:16Then we give them the All-Star Game.
24:17Then we go home.
24:18That's why it's at 57% as the voting and by a wide margin.
24:22You look at the other leagues, the NBA,
24:23you can hear a pin drop the entire All-Star weekend for the NBA.
24:29Nobody cares.
24:29It's boring as all get out.
24:31Nobody's in the dunk competition.
24:32How exciting is it for Steph to shoot a three-point shot unattended there
24:37and go around?
24:37Like, who cares about that anymore?
24:39The NFL, they did away with everything.
24:411.6 matches it perfectly.
24:43But they were smart enough as a league to be like,
24:44this is absolutely horrendous to watch.
24:47Let's just throw something on ESPN to give them a bone, let's just say,
24:50because they have the football package and you can play it out.
24:52The NHL, it is decent, but the All-Star Game is terrible
24:56because it's not anything like what you watch in hockey
24:59and the physicality that people tune into.
25:01So you're right, baseball gets it right.
25:03The NFL actually got it right at 1.6%
25:06because they did away with that farce of the game.
25:08I would love if every league just did away with the All-Star Game.
25:11And as I say, Ben, at the end of the season,
25:13just have a nice steak dinner for the people that made the All-Star Game
25:17and have at it.
25:18Yeah, that's how DRS would like to do it.
25:21Again, if you do not think that All-Star Games
25:23or All-Star festivities in the middle of a season,
25:26even near the end of a season, like in the National Football League, are worthy,
25:31yeah, pay for the guys to take a nice trip.
25:33I still offer up the idea that the Pro Bowl game should be back in Hawaii.
25:38Then you would get more players at least excited by the actual trip
25:41than heading to Orlando.
25:43But again, that's neither here nor there.
25:45We get ready for a home run derby tonight, DRS, in Atlanta, inside Truist Park.
25:51Here is how this works.
25:53We have a field of eight.
25:55We'll tell you the contestants tonight in just a matter of moments.
25:59A change dating back to 2016, but a change even within the change.
26:04When we changed the format in 2016,
26:07from the amount of pitches to a timed round,
26:10we made a bracket, one versus eight, two versus seven, three versus six,
26:15four versus five, based on the number of home runs
26:18hit up until the All-Star break.
26:20Not the case any longer.
26:22In the first round, DRS, three minutes for each participant
26:26or 40 pitches, whatever comes first.
26:28The top four home run hitters,
26:30just in the number of long balls in the opening round,
26:34advance to the semifinals.
26:35That's when it becomes a knockout round.
26:37One versus four, two versus three in the head-to-head matchups.
26:42And then, of course, whoever wins those head-to-head matchups
26:44face off in a final.
26:47When you get to the knockout style in round number two in the semifinals,
26:51it becomes two minutes or 27 pitches,
26:54both for the semis and the finals.
26:56Again, those are the logistics behind tonight.
26:58We'll remind you what it is.
27:00Here are the participants.
27:02Big Dumber, our MLB home run leader, is in the field.
27:06So, 38 homers for Cal Raleigh.
27:08He had two in the opening game against Detroit
27:11to add to his lead in the final weekend set for Seattle.
27:15He's got 38, 14 more than James Wood,
27:18who is having a great year for the Nationals.
27:21Junior Caminero continues to provide some pop.
27:24And Byron Buxton, a native in Atlanta,
27:26back home trying to put on a show in front of the hometown crowd.
27:31Brent Rooker of the Athletics, he has 20.
27:34Jazz Chisholm, his torpedo bat tonight, perhaps 17 home runs.
27:39We knew we were going to get at least one Atlanta Brave.
27:42It was initially Ronald Acuna Jr., who is now out.
27:45He's not missed any time for the Braves,
27:47but dealing with back tightness,
27:48does not want to aggravate anything
27:50in taking some big hacks tonight.
27:52So, Matt Olsen is there to represent the Braves.
27:55And finally, DRS O'Neal Cruz,
27:57who has the fewest amount of home runs hit
27:59in this field of eight this year
28:02and only 16 for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
28:04But as the exit philo leader,
28:06that is exit velocity,
28:08basically how hard he hits a baseball
28:09every time he connects,
28:11he is in the field as well.
28:13That is our field of eight participants
28:15for the 2025 Home Run Derby.
28:17But by the way, also on this,
28:19some of the, you know, the rulings on these,
28:22like why do we have a clock
28:23and also a max pitch count?
28:25Like wouldn't it be true in the van?
28:26Like let him go three minutes
28:27and throw as many pitches as he can.
28:29And also, how about the dumb rules?
28:31Oh, I hit a pop-up.
28:32I have to wait till it lands.
28:33Why can't you just go rapid fire?
28:35Because number one, it could work
28:37because you can hit a lot of home runs.
28:38But number two, boy,
28:38you could just get tired out really quickly
28:40and be like, hey,
28:41you could call the timeout,
28:43but my goodness,
28:43I don't understand why we have both.
28:45Max 40 pitches.
28:46Well, just make it 40 pitches.
28:48Max three minutes.
28:48Well, then just make it three minutes.
28:50What are we doing here?
28:52Yeah, it is a little bit silly.
28:53I would agree.
28:54I believe if you hit a home run
28:55425 feet or longer,
28:58you get an additional bonus time as well.
29:02We'll continue to talk the rules,
29:04the field, the dimensions
29:05at Truist Park next.
29:07Getting you ready with everything
29:09you need to know
29:09for the 2025 Home Run Derby
29:11tonight in Atlanta
29:12and Truist Park.
29:14It is the home of the Braves
29:16who, of course,
29:16had a disappointing season.
29:18But tonight we would expect
29:19a ton of home runs.
29:21DRS, here are the dimensions tonight
29:23in the A.
29:24And then we'll come to forecaster,
29:25Donnie, in just a moment
29:26to get the temperature, humidity,
29:28all that for tonight.
29:29Left field, 335.
29:30Straight away center,
29:32400 feet down the right field line,
29:34325.
29:36Cal Raleigh, switch hitter, by the way,
29:38despite being MLB's home run leader,
29:40he has 38 homers this year.
29:43What is the forecast?
29:44The weather looking like tonight,
29:46DRS, down in the A?
29:48Always a hot lanter today,
29:4992 degrees on the forecast.
29:51I don't have exactly where the wind
29:52is blowing just yet at this point,
29:54but we do have that heat
29:55and humidity that you love.
29:56And also, more importantly,
29:57tonight, no rain in the forecast.
29:58We don't have to worry about
29:59raindrops and we have to take a break.
30:01It looks like it's going to be
30:02clean all night,
30:03but those hot temperatures,
30:04which you absolutely love
30:05to see down there.
30:06So, an A-plus night in the Big A,
30:09weather-wise,
30:10looks like we're going to get.
30:12Yeah, that should be the case, DRS,
30:14and that means the ball is flying.
30:16That is what we love.
30:18By the way, I'm trying to see Cal Raleigh,
30:20how many home runs he has hit
30:21from the right side and the left side.
30:24I don't know if I can find it at this moment,
30:25but we'll try to get you some of those numbers.
30:28I don't know if he is determined yet
30:29in big dumper which way he is bad.
30:32He is a switch hitter, right?
30:33I'm not going crazy?
30:34Yes, correct.
30:35He is, yes.
30:36Okay, very good player.
30:37Thank you for checking on that.
30:39Very good player indeed.
30:4238 home runs for Cal Raleigh and DRS.
30:45It is the reason why he is the favorite
30:46entering tonight's home run derby
30:48at a three-to-one number.
30:51What is really interesting, though,
30:52when you look at the odds,
30:54you see Cal Raleigh now plus 290,
30:57some of the updated prices on a sportsbook
30:59we no longer name by itself.
31:02Cal Raleigh is the favorite,
31:03but the second-best price is O'Neal Cruz.
31:05We showed you the field of eight.
31:07The Pirates player only has 16 home runs.
31:10It's the fewest amount in this field
31:12tonight at the home run derby.
31:14So why would O'Neal Cruz have that second-best number?
31:17He is the exit velocity leader in Major League Baseball.
31:21Basically, when he makes contact,
31:22that ball comes screaming off his bat.
31:25And if in a home run derby,
31:27you are not looking for situational baseball
31:29and just trying to hit the crap out of that baseball,
31:32then you are going to be swinging hard,
31:34even if you mishit it,
31:36but you hit the ball hard,
31:37it has a better chance of flying out.
31:40It is why O'Neal Cruz has that second-best price
31:42now at plus 310.
31:44Yeah, it's interesting.
31:45And again, you look at, like,
31:46obviously Cal Raleigh's a leader there.
31:48Home run guy should be the favorite,
31:49but this is one of the tougher things to handicap,
31:51even from an odds-maker perspective,
31:53of who's going to hit home runs.
31:55And also, we're talking about a lot of guys
31:56with not a lot of center-stage experience
31:58being in front of 50,000 or 35,000 fans,
32:01whatever it's going to be in the Big 8 tonight,
32:03where they're used to just being up there
32:04and swinging and trying to hit home runs
32:06when you know you should post it.
32:07Yes, they do it every single day in batting practice.
32:09It's very easy for them,
32:10but once you get in that spotlight,
32:12how are you going to react to that situation,
32:14which is why I look a little bit further
32:15down the board at this point.
32:16Also, if we did make any tweaks
32:18to, like, home run derby,
32:20would you rather see, like,
32:21is it more exciting to see a guy hit 30 home runs
32:24in a round or one 535-foot blast off a scoreboard?
32:29I like to just hit the absolute rocket bomb.
32:32Like, O'Neal Cruz, like, if you said,
32:34hey, you can win this thing if you hit one at 525,
32:37and that's all the guys were trying to do,
32:38I would love home run derby at that point.
32:41Absolutely so, DRS.
32:43And by the way, the longest home run hit tonight
32:45has an over under at 479 and a half feet.
32:49Can we see a 480-yard bomb?
32:52We hope so.
32:53Some great investigative work by our producer extraordinaire,
32:57Joe Frizzo.
32:5822 home runs for Cal Raleigh from the left side of the dish,
33:0116 home runs this year from the right side of the dish.
33:05Cal Raleigh's father, large dumper,
33:07or, well, maybe even larger dumper for big dumper,
33:11is pitching to him tonight.
33:13But we expect Cal Raleigh to hit from the left side.
33:17We're not sure which way, if dad is a righty thrower
33:19or a lefty thrower for Mr. Raleigh.
33:22But either way, we expect Cal Raleigh
33:24to hit from the left side of the dish
33:26as we share down the right field line,
33:28a little bit shorter at Truist Park
33:30than down that left field line.
33:33Again, DRS, when you look at these derby odds
33:35that we'll discuss and all the betting markets
33:37that you have on the other side of the break.
33:40A reminder of the structure.
33:42Three minutes or 40 pitches
33:43for all eight guys in the opening round.
33:46The top four home run hitters
33:47then make it on to the semifinal round
33:50that becomes a knockout stage.
33:52One versus four.
33:53The most home runs versus the fourth most homers
33:55in the opening round.
33:56Two versus three.
33:57And then into the finals.
33:59Two minutes or 27 pitches,
34:01whatever comes first in the semifinal and final round.
34:04Again, just to determine.
34:06And DRS, throughout those rounds,
34:08a player can call for a 45-second timeout
34:12to get some hydration, to slow down the heart rate,
34:14and of course to gear up for the remainder of that round
34:18as they are taking those large swings.
34:20We'll talk about maybe some picks, some angles.
34:24Got some numbers to break down for you.
34:26What in a derby, Pat?
34:27So many different markets and angles of attack DRS
34:32for the 2025 Home Run Derby tonight in Atlanta.
34:35You can bet on people to make the semifinals,
34:37to basically divide the field by eight.
34:40The top four home run hitters in our opening round.
34:44We have Cal Raleigh as the favorite
34:45to win the entire thing.
34:47And Big Dumper, of course, has the best price
34:49to at least reach the semis at minus 265.
34:53You see Cal Raleigh there from the right side of the dish.
34:56More than likely, he will be batting
34:58for the left side of the plate tonight,
35:00but maybe he gives us a thrill
35:01and hits a couple of home runs from each side.
35:04O'Neal Cruz has the second best price
35:06to both win and to make the semifinals.
35:09James Wood having a great year
35:11for the Nationals, third best number as well.
35:14Might Matt Olsen be able to give
35:16the hometown crowd a thrill?
35:18He has a slightly better priced DRS
35:20to reach the semifinals than that
35:22of the Georgia native in Byron Buxton.
35:24But Byron Buxton has a slightly better price
35:27than Matt Olsen to win the entire thing.
35:29Now, if you were just like,
35:31you can handicap these, I guess.
35:34Hey, Wood's going to hit a lot of home runs.
35:36All right, well, maybe he does.
35:37Maybe Jazz Chisholm in the torpedo back
35:39because that's all he does well
35:40is swing for the fences.
35:41But if I just said to myself,
35:42let me just come up with a strategy.
35:44And he said, let me just keep it simple.
35:46Every round, I'm just going to take the plus money.
35:48Ben, I actually think you'd wind up
35:50with plus money at the end of the night.
35:51I do because it's not,
35:53hey, Max Freed's on the mound
35:54going up against, you know, Ranger Suarez.
35:56Like, okay, I think this is how it's going to work out
35:58and how these pitchers pitch
35:59and how these players like to hit
36:00against certain pitchers.
36:01It's just batting practice.
36:02Like some guy's going to get hot,
36:04some guy's not.
36:04Who's to say like Cal Rowley can't get bounced
36:06like in the first round?
36:08Like we don't know how great Cal's going to be
36:10in this where O'Neal Cruz hits laser beams.
36:12Maybe it's two home runs at 450
36:13and doesn't hit any more
36:14because he's just so wound up
36:16and tried to absolutely uncork lasers
36:17into the seats.
36:18So for my strategy tonight
36:20and just looking like
36:20who's going to make it to the semifinals,
36:23I see the minus money guys.
36:24I don't want anything to do with those guys.
36:26Give me the plus money on this
36:27because you just have to go,
36:28hey, win one, lose one,
36:29win one, lose one,
36:30win one, lose one,
36:31plus money on the night.
36:32That's how I would do it.
36:34No doubt, DRS.
36:35And it is still a random thing.
36:36Cal Rowley is the home run leader.
36:38He's got 38.
36:39That doesn't mean necessarily
36:40he has been grooved
36:41for a home run derby
36:42and how things play out.
36:44You're talking about metrics, right?
36:46And I'll give a big shout out
36:47to a guy that has been
36:48on the Sports Grid Network
36:49here on the early line
36:50and various other programs a ton
36:52in Peter Apple,
36:53who does great work with our guys
36:55over at Just Baseball Media.
36:57I watched a video from him
36:58early this morning, DRS,
37:00breaking down the home run derby field
37:01and breaking down some reliable trends
37:04in metrics that he uses
37:05to handicap this event.
37:07Again, they changed the format
37:08from number of pitches and outs
37:11to the amount of time
37:12back in 2016.
37:15Every single winner
37:16outside of Teoscar Hernandez
37:18last year in 2024
37:20had these two similar metrics.
37:23They were top 10 in exit VLO
37:25in terms of how hard they hit
37:27the frickin' baseball all year long.
37:30And they were 26 years old or younger.
37:34Teoscar Hernandez is the only guy
37:36to defy that
37:37as Teoscar is 32 now,
37:39maybe even 33 years old.
37:42But there are a couple of players
37:43in this year's field of eight
37:45that are top 10 in exit VLO
37:47and the additional 26 years old
37:50or younger.
37:51Those three guys,
37:53O'Neal Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates,
37:55James Wood of the Washington Nationals,
37:58and Junior Caminero
37:59of the Tampa Bay Rays.
38:01Again, DRS, O'Neal Cruz,
38:02only 16 long balls this year.
38:04The fewest of any of our eight participants
38:07tonight in Atlanta inside Truist Park.
38:09And yet the oddsmakers kind of know
38:11what Peter Apple was saying as well
38:13in those key,
38:14at least baseline handicapping metrics
38:17that O'Neal Cruz has the second best price
38:19only behind Cal Raleigh
38:20to win tonight's home run derby.
38:22Yeah, and also,
38:23and how about this?
38:23You take a look at the longest home run
38:25in feet over 471.5
38:27is listed for O'Neal Cruz tonight.
38:28So we're expecting
38:29some of those big blasts.
38:30But they are intriguing guys.
38:32Like, you're right about this.
38:33Sometimes you take a look
38:33at the best home run hitters
38:35or the guys that can hit the ball the farthest.
38:37That's why we always say,
38:37man, Ja'Carla Stanton's great at this.
38:39Aaron Judge would be great at this.
38:40But sometimes we don't know
38:41how it factors in
38:42where some guys just need
38:43to get into a groove.
38:45And if it's an O'Neal Cruz
38:46where you say to yourself,
38:48is he in a groove
38:49when he hits the baseball that hard?
38:50Or is he like,
38:51you know what?
38:51I'm just going to maximize my contact.
38:53One out of every four swings,
38:55I'll hit the baseball.
38:56And it goes the far away
38:57where let's just say
38:58a Matt Olsen's like,
38:59I'm just going to have
39:00that nice, easy swing.
39:01This is my home ballpark.
39:02I'm used to it.
39:02Boom, loft those balls.
39:04375 feet, 375 feet, 375 feet,
39:07as opposed to out, out, out, 520,
39:11out, out, out, 520,
39:12like O'Neal Cruz
39:13might be able to give you
39:14with that huge,
39:15you know, basically,
39:16you know, launch angle,
39:18you know, efficiency at the plate.
39:20Well, who knows
39:20what's going to happen?
39:21So for me, again,
39:22I'm just looking at the guy
39:23that maybe not the best
39:24home run hitter distance wise,
39:25but just can get into a groove
39:26tonight would be the handicap.
39:27And when you look at O'Neal Cruz,
39:30he is the favorite right now.
39:32Yes, you can bet
39:33on who has the highest
39:34exit velocity on a ball hit tonight.
39:36O'Neal Cruz is a minus 130 favorite
39:39to have that highest exit velo.
39:41DRS, we would think
39:42there is an advantage slightly
39:44of being a left-handed hitter
39:45tonight inside Truist Park
39:47than that of a lefty.
39:48Again, down the right field line,
39:5010 feet shorter
39:51than down the left field line.
39:52To left center, it's 385.
39:54To right center,
39:55a 10-foot advantage,
39:56375 as well.
39:58Center, 400 feet away.
40:00You don't need to be hitting
40:01450-plus foot moonshots
40:04each and every time.
40:05You hit a 330
40:06down that right field line,
40:07it counts all the same
40:09as you try to groove that swing
40:10to do just that.
40:13Other prop bets
40:13that you can have,
40:14DRS, 240 and a half
40:16for the total amount
40:18of home runs to hit tonight.
40:19You can bet the over-under
40:20for each participant
40:22in the opening round.
40:23For instance,
40:24O'Neal Cruz is over-under
40:25for that opening round.
40:2721 and a half.
40:28Brett Rooker of the Athletics,
40:3018 and a half as well.
40:32It's all about making sure
40:34your stamina is there as well.
40:36Three minutes in the opening round,
40:38two minutes if you advance
40:39to the semifinals,
40:40two more minutes
40:40in that finals round as well.
40:43A little bit different, DRS,
40:44of course, in the structure,
40:45in the thought process,
40:47in the semifinals,
40:48in the finals,
40:49you're going direct head-to-head.
40:50You will know
40:51what number you need to post,
40:52or if you are batting second,
40:54which number that you need to beat.
40:56In the opening round,
40:58it's post as many home runs
40:59as possible to finish
41:00in the top four
41:01and advance to that second round,
41:03the semifinals.
41:04And also, as you move on, right,
41:06you're in Atlanta.
41:06We talked about it,
41:0792-degree temperatures.
41:08It's going to be hot
41:09and muggy tonight.
41:10The attrition is going to be on.
41:11Hey, maybe your first
41:1210 or 15 swings look great.
41:14You're all loosened up.
41:14You're lathered up.
41:15It's great hitting weather.
41:16But then as you start
41:17to sweat it out and say,
41:18how many more home runs
41:19that I can hit?
41:20I take a look at it too, Ben,
41:21and say, well,
41:22which other way can you approach
41:23this just trying to say,
41:24I think it makes money,
41:26but I don't think I can get hurt.
41:27If you just went up
41:28and down the list
41:28of each one of these players
41:30to take the under
41:31on their longest home runs,
41:33I do think you comment on top
41:34because we're not talking
41:35about under 420.
41:36Like, Ben,
41:37some of these guys
41:37are 480, 490,
41:38you know,
41:39ridiculous numbers
41:40where you could say,
41:41all right,
41:41those guys get at home runs.
41:42And also,
41:43what is your strategy?
41:44Most of the strategies
41:45aren't really to hit
41:46the farthest home run.
41:47It's just to hit home runs
41:49and stay in a groove
41:50and not overpower yourself.
41:51As I said,
41:52hey,
41:52380,
41:53380,
41:53380 counts more than 420,
41:56450,
41:56and that's it.
41:57That's three,
41:57you know what I mean?
41:58Just stay in your lane
41:59at this point
41:59where it's not fun baseball,
42:01but they're not giving you
42:02extra per se
42:03to hit the longest home run.
42:05Hey,
42:05longest home run
42:06in this competition
42:07gets an extra 25 total
42:08home runs here
42:09that can boost you
42:10into the next round
42:11or give you the championship.
42:12That's not the case.
42:14Yeah,
42:14in DRS,
42:15there are some very fun bets,
42:16but again,
42:16fun bets are not necessarily
42:18the most bets
42:19that have the best chance
42:20of winning.
42:21For instance,
42:21for all eight participants,
42:23for their first swing
42:24of the night
42:25to be a home run,
42:26everybody hefty juice
42:28on the no,
42:28right,
42:29to get your feel
42:30at least for the first
42:31few swings
42:32that you have.
42:33The least amount
42:34of juice
42:34is Cal Raleigh
42:35at minus 220
42:36to the no
42:37that his first swing
42:38will not be
42:39a home run.
42:41But if you wanted
42:42to maybe pick a guy
42:43that you're like,
42:44hey,
42:44I think this guy
42:45gets off to a good start,
42:46you can hit
42:47some plus money prices
42:48on basically
42:48a yes,
42:49no bet
42:50from the very start.
42:51Again,
42:52can you handicap that?
42:53Do we know guys
42:54that are going
42:54to be tuned in
42:55from the very start
42:56of their best friend
42:57or their dad
42:58or their,
42:58you know,
42:59bench coach
43:01throwing to them tonight?
43:02Not necessarily.
43:04They're nervous, too.
43:04But you would hope
43:05they start in a groove.
43:06Yeah,
43:07probably so.
43:07It's also very different.
43:09Like,
43:09they can be the best
43:10home run hitter
43:10in the world,
43:11and it's still
43:11a very different thing
43:12to be in a home run derby
43:13basically taking BP
43:15than it is
43:16on every other stage.
43:18No,
43:19you're right about that.
43:19Like,
43:20nerves matter
43:20on all occasions
43:21and it's not like,
43:22hey,
43:22Pete Alonzo's
43:23in this competition
43:24like,
43:24hey,
43:24I've been there,
43:25done that,
43:25man.
43:26Watch me get out there
43:26and rake.
43:27I'm not worried about,
43:27oh,
43:28took me a while
43:28to get in my groove.
43:29Oh,
43:29whoa,
43:30you didn't even make
43:30the second round
43:31at that point.
43:33You know what?
43:35We'll ask Tom Vecchio,
43:36who is our home run
43:37prop king up next.
43:38Is everybody
43:39a first time participant?
43:41Or have people
43:42done this
43:42multiple years?
43:45Find out next.
43:46All right,
43:49enough of me
43:49and DRS
43:50trying to break down
43:51the home run derby
43:52tonight in Atlanta.
43:53Let's go to the guy
43:53known as the home run
43:54prop king,
43:55the jack of all trades,
43:57providing that prop
43:58perspective for the derby.
43:59That's TV Tom Vecchio
44:02of Sports Grid
44:03joining us here
44:04on this Monday
44:05on the early line.
44:06Tom,
44:07we are really looking
44:07to you
44:08because we have
44:09some questions
44:09about the event.
44:11about the structure.
44:12We need your guidance,
44:13so we appreciate
44:14your time as always.
44:16Yeah,
44:16thanks for having me.
44:17This event is,
44:19it's always interesting
44:19and the overlying
44:21message or like
44:22the high level message
44:23that I would have
44:24is like,
44:24you are going
44:25to get out of it
44:26what you want
44:27to put into it
44:27and what you're expecting.
44:28So I would say
44:29first and foremost,
44:30decrease the unit size,
44:32but just be ready
44:33to have some fun.
44:34And you guys
44:35were talking about
44:35in the previous segment
44:36like the first
44:37first swing
44:38to be home run
44:39longest distance.
44:40Yeah,
44:40first pitch.
44:41So you could take
44:42all these different props.
44:43You could take
44:43one player
44:44and bet on the same player
44:45to do all these
44:46different things.
44:46But again,
44:47you could handicap it
44:48at a high level.
44:48You could just
44:49have some fun with it.
44:50It's going to be
44:51a good time.
44:51Let's get into it.
44:53I think it's a great point.
44:54Let's have some fun
44:55tonight in Atlanta
44:56around the home run derby.
44:58It's not necessarily
44:59the most staunch
45:00handicaps or ratings
45:01or all that stuff
45:02that you can go in
45:03to the derby.
45:05We,
45:05with the help of Tom Becchio
45:06during the break,
45:07did make sure
45:08that all eight participants
45:10tonight are making
45:11their debut
45:12at a home run derby
45:13out of the late scratch
45:14of Ronald.
45:14No,
45:15that's Matt Olson.
45:16We were not.
45:18Matt Olson did it
45:19when he was with the A's
45:20a few years ago.
45:22Right.
45:23But yes,
45:23now it's an Atlanta Brave
45:24making his debut
45:25in front of the home crowd.
45:27The other seven guys
45:28making their debut
45:29in a home run derby,
45:31not Matt Olson.
45:32Let's start with
45:33the ballpark,
45:34Vecchio.
45:34The dimensions tonight
45:35at Truist Park
45:36in the warm weather forecast
45:38as DRS told us earlier
45:39in Atlanta.
45:40About 92 degrees.
45:42We expect some good humidity.
45:43There you see the dimensions.
45:45Slightly better
45:45if you are a lefty
45:46or to go oppo
45:48to right field,
45:48perhaps at least
45:49in terms of
45:51the dimensions
45:52out there
45:52at Truist Park
45:53than to left field.
45:55How do you evaluate
45:56the specs
45:57for the ballpark
45:58tonight in Atlanta?
46:00It's going to be
46:00awesome.
46:01Yeah,
46:01there is a slight
46:02advantage to lefties.
46:03So you,
46:03and I wonder
46:04what Cal Raleigh
46:05is going to do.
46:05Like,
46:05that's a big question.
46:06I would assume
46:07he's probably
46:07going to be hitting
46:07from the left side.
46:08That's my interpretation.
46:10So Cal Raleigh,
46:11O'Neal Cruz,
46:12Wood,
46:13Matt Olson,
46:14and Chisholm
46:14are all lefties.
46:15So you could just say,
46:16maybe I just want
46:17to focus on those guys.
46:17If I want to focus on them,
46:19should I be looking
46:19at some of those extra props
46:20about, you know,
46:21over, under
46:21in the first round
46:22to make the second round
46:23whatever might be
46:23all those sorts of things.
46:25Obviously,
46:25it is super hot there
46:30to that list.
46:31You could also break it down
46:32and go, okay,
46:33what if they were
46:33all righties theoretically?
46:35Could we then dive into
46:36and say,
46:37of the righties,
46:37how many of their home runs
46:39go to the opposite field?
46:40Like,
46:40you can dig into
46:41whatever level you want to
46:43when it comes to
46:43a lot of this stuff.
46:44And there is some historic
46:45data that indicates
46:47certain types of hitters
46:48have more success
46:50in these events
46:50than others.
46:51Certain types of hitters
46:52that are more line drive hitters
46:53compared to,
46:54you know,
46:54big sweeping,
46:55orking,
46:56like Riley Green
46:56has a really steep bat path.
46:58So those hitters
46:59don't always have success
47:00and more line drive hitters.
47:01So you can dig into
47:02whatever you want,
47:03but ultimately it comes down
47:04to what odds are you getting
47:05and what you're planning
47:06to do with that.
47:07Yeah,
47:08trying to map out
47:08a strategy is tough
47:09and also remind yourselves
47:10in Atlanta,
47:11though,
47:11that wall is pretty big
47:13in right field.
47:13I think it's 15 feet
47:15maybe compared to the left field.
47:16So you are going to have
47:17to really get one out there
47:18in right field.
47:19And also,
47:1992 degrees,
47:20Ben,
47:20as we talked about,
47:21did find out the windy conditions.
47:22It's not really windy,
47:23but five to 10 miles an hour
47:24blowing dead out
47:25to center field.
47:26So we do have conditions
47:27that are conducive
47:28to hitting long,
47:29home runs
47:30and we'll see if we find it.
47:31But Tom,
47:31like what sort of angles?
47:32Because we're trying
47:33to figure it out.
47:33It's hard to handicap
47:34these guys in it, right?
47:35It's an exhibition.
47:36They're not used to doing this.
47:37It's not,
47:37we know who the pitcher is,
47:38who the lineup is
47:39at this point.
47:40Is there a way
47:40that you approach this?
47:41Because I was just
47:42joking around saying,
47:43I'm just going to take,
47:44like if I wanted to,
47:45plus money every single round
47:46and hope I go 50%
47:48and just put the profit
47:49in my pocket
47:50because I don't know
47:51who actually is going
47:52to hit the most home runs
47:53and that's the beauty
47:54of this competition.
47:55Yeah,
47:55the way I would go
47:56about it is
47:57you could certainly
47:58take outrights on,
47:59you know,
47:59two,
47:59three different players
48:00and as long as you have,
48:01you know,
48:02as long as one of them
48:02comes through,
48:03you would come out positive
48:04just because we're getting
48:04such, you know,
48:05big plus money
48:06and I think that's
48:06a very easy way
48:07to go about it.
48:08I have a position
48:09on Brent Rooker to win.
48:10I also like Brent Rooker
48:11to advance to,
48:13you know,
48:13the second round,
48:14not a surprise.
48:14So like I'm,
48:15you know,
48:15doubling down essentially
48:16to make the semifinals.
48:17So I like him to win
48:18and you could do that.
48:19The same thing is just
48:20simply to make the semifinals.
48:24We talk about with RBIs
48:25as long as one of them
48:26comes through,
48:27you're coming out net positive.
48:28Now you can obviously
48:29add more to that
48:30and you're spreading yourself
48:30a little bit thin.
48:31You could take Brent Rooker
48:32over 18 and a half,
48:33which is his first round
48:34total home run mark
48:36because if he were
48:37to advance to the second round,
48:38he probably needs
48:39to get to 18 and a half,
48:40whatever it might be.
48:41So like you can
48:41compound those things.
48:42It's the same thing
48:43with the three-point contest
48:44in the NBA.
48:45If a player is going
48:46to advance,
48:46he's going to need
48:47to hit a lot.
48:49It's a really good point,
48:50Becky,
48:50in terms of those over-unders
48:52for the opening rounds
48:53and you can look
48:54at each batter
48:54for how far
48:55their farthest home run
48:57is tonight.
48:57All of that good stuff.
49:00Vecchio,
49:00the odds though,
49:01not nearly as optimistic
49:02about Brent Rooker
49:03as you are.
49:04Tied for the second longest price
49:06alongside Junior Camonero.
49:08Right now,
49:08Jazz Chisholm
49:09is the only guy
49:10with a longer number.
49:11So why do you believe
49:12that Brent Rooker
49:13will deliver
49:14on the largest stage
49:15tonight in the home run derby?
49:16Ah.
49:17It's partly just fading
49:19that I don't like
49:20the numbers
49:21where Cruz
49:22and Wood are specifically.
49:24So I just don't want,
49:26I just don't think
49:26all the chalk's going to hit.
49:27I just don't think
49:28that's going to happen.
49:29So I want to take
49:29a metered approach
49:31with Brent Rooker.
49:32He's a little bit of a veteran.
49:33Hopefully he knows
49:33he's going into this.
49:34Like,
49:34he's not going to have
49:35another shot,
49:36I don't think,
49:36at another home run derby.
49:37And like,
49:37that's part of it.
49:38I could also make
49:39somewhat of a different argument
49:40for Byron Buxton
49:41who is from Georgia.
49:43So he is in his home state.
49:45He's dealt with a lot
49:45in his career
49:46when it comes to injuries.
49:47He's an awesome player.
49:48And I would buy into
49:49a Byron Buxton
49:50if the number
49:51was a little bit longer.
49:52So I'm just buying
49:53into the Brent Rooker number
49:55because I don't want
49:56to get to Cruz or Wood
49:57really when it comes
49:58to those numbers.
49:58I think they're far too short.
50:00Nah, Tom,
50:01watched pro baseball
50:01today, yesterday.
50:02Your boy DRS
50:03liking Brent Rooker.
50:04Maybe we joined
50:05for us tonight
50:06with a Rooker home run.
50:07We had so much fun
50:08on the hour sprint.
50:09Let me ask you
50:09this quick question.
50:10If there's one bet
50:11that actually
50:11does make sense.
50:12Ben brought it up.
50:13How about highest velocity
50:15of a exit velocity
50:16of a home run
50:16O'Neal Cruz at minus 140?
50:18I actually think
50:19there might be
50:19a handicap to that, Tom.
50:21There is.
50:22So what's his total?
50:23What's the mile per hour?
50:25Because this is something
50:26you could dig into
50:27when it comes to
50:27the StatCast, Dad.
50:28You could look at
50:29his average exit velocity,
50:30what percentile he sits.
50:33It's just who has
50:34the exit velocity.
50:35It's not a mile per hour.
50:36It's just who has the...
50:37Oh, yeah.
50:38Oh, okay.
50:40So different books
50:40off for different things.
50:41There is something
50:42to dig into that.
50:42I don't mind it
50:43for O'Neal Cruz
50:44because there's a world
50:45where he doesn't advance
50:46to the second round,
50:47but he still wins you
50:48that bet.
50:49Yeah.
50:50I think right now,
50:51Becky, I won't double check
50:52just to make sure,
50:53but I believe that
50:54O'Neal Cruz right now
50:55is the exit VLO leader
50:56in Major League Baseball
50:58on average.
50:58You see, like,
50:59that's something you can
51:00absolutely do
51:01as you go through things.
51:04Exit VLO.
51:05BRS, enjoy Moneyline.
51:07Vecchio and I
51:07continue on that.
51:08Now,
51:09before we move on
51:11to Major League Baseball
51:12at the All-Star break
51:13and get some impressions
51:14where the big stand
51:15from Tom Vecchio
51:16in just a matter of moments,
51:18I want to make sure
51:19that if you were not
51:19paying attention
51:20or just joining us
51:21for the final few minutes
51:22here of the early line,
51:24you get Tom Vecchio,
51:25the home run prop Kings picks
51:26for tonight's home run derby
51:28in 2025 in Atlanta.
51:31Vecchio, again,
51:31as you're breaking down
51:32the derby tonight,
51:34it's fun,
51:34it's not necessarily
51:36the strongest handicap,
51:37and you're looking
51:38at some plus money hits.
51:40What's the play tonight
51:41for the home run derby
51:42inside Truist Park?
51:44I like Brent Rooker to win.
51:46I'm taking a position on that.
51:47I also like Brent Rooker
51:48to advance to the semifinal.
51:50So him to win is a 10-1,
51:52advance to the semifinal
51:53is at plus 128.
51:54Again, these are very simple.
51:55I would say if you're
51:56going to be betting
51:57on any player,
51:57you should also be looking
51:58at some other type of bet again
51:59to advance to the semifinal,
52:01to hit over X amount
52:02of home runs in the first round,
52:03whatever it might be.
52:04The other factors
52:05like longest home run,
52:06eggs at VLO,
52:07which we're just talking about,
52:08you can take different shots
52:09on those because obviously
52:09those aren't correlated.
52:11Cal Raleigh could win
52:12the whole thing
52:12and lose every other type of bet,
52:14not hit a home run
52:15on his first pitch,
52:15not have the highest eggs at VLO,
52:17not have the longest home run,
52:18but he still wins
52:18the event overall.
52:19So you can be creative
52:20with it again.
52:21Have fun with it,
52:22decrease the unit size,
52:23and be ready for the second
52:24portion of the season.
52:25It's a really good point,
52:27Vecchio,
52:28and by the way,
52:28for Cal Raleigh,
52:29O'Neal Cruz,
52:30James Wood,
52:31Byron Buxton,
52:32Matt Olsen,
52:33top five,
52:33those guys in there
52:34to get 20 plus home runs
52:36in the first round,
52:37which I think is a pretty
52:38fair barometer
52:39for what we would expect
52:41that you need
52:41to be top four
52:42of the field of eight
52:43to advance to the semis.
52:45Big Dumper is minus 290.
52:47O'Neal Cruz is minus 215.
52:49James Wood is minus 196,
52:51and the Georgia native
52:52and Byron Buxton
52:53is minus 106.
52:54Matt Olsen,
52:55the Atlanta Brave,
52:56representing in this field
52:57of eight,
52:58the only guy
52:59who has been
52:59in a home run derby
53:01previously in his career,
53:03even money,
53:04plus 100.
53:05Brett Rucker
53:05to get to 20 home runs,
53:07plus 112.
53:09One of the reasons
53:09the odds are so short
53:11relatively on James Wood
53:12and O'Neal Cruz,
53:14young guys,
53:1526 for Cruz,
53:1622 for James Wood,
53:18ranking top 10
53:19in exit velo
53:20on average this year
53:21in Major League Baseball.
53:23All right, Vecchio,
53:24it is the All-Star Festivities
53:25beginning today
53:26in Atlanta,
53:27Midsummer Classic tomorrow,
53:28and then the All-Star break
53:29action resumes
53:30on Friday.
53:32We have said it.
53:33It's the first half
53:33of the season
53:34in the books,
53:35but we are well past
53:36the midway point
53:37of this MLB campaign.
53:38All 30 teams
53:39have played
53:40at least 95
53:41of their 162 games.
53:44Let's go to the National League
53:45pennant prices first.
53:46The Dodgers,
53:47all year long,
53:48have remained
53:48an incredibly short favorite,
53:50even shorter now
53:50at plus 120
53:51than their opening day
53:53price at plus 135.
53:55The Dodgers have
53:56the best record
53:57and a five-and-a-half game
53:58lead in the NL West.
53:59They have the best record
54:00by a half game
54:01in front of Chicago
54:02for the best record
54:03in the National League.
54:04But when the price
54:05is so short
54:06on one side,
54:07does it present
54:08some value
54:09than Vecchio
54:09elsewhere in the NL?
54:11It does,
54:12and the argument
54:14that I will always make
54:15when it comes
54:15to this point
54:16is if you like
54:17a team
54:18or two teams,
54:19you should be looking
54:19at alternate markets.
54:21Obviously,
54:21the price on
54:22some of those teams
54:23I'm going to say
54:23is prohibitive.
54:24I don't think
54:24betting on the Dodgers
54:25at this point
54:26is a good idea,
54:27especially at such
54:28a short price.
54:28However,
54:29you could look
54:30to an NLCS outcome
54:32or direct outcomes.
54:33So if you wanted
54:33to say,
54:34oh,
54:34the Dodgers
54:35to face the Mets
54:36in the NLCS,
54:37that's at 6-1.
54:38The Dodgers
54:39to beat the Mets,
54:40the Dodgers
54:40to beat the Cubs,
54:41you would be getting
54:41better prices on them.
54:42We have to understand
54:43that you could lose
54:44this bet
54:45before the playoffs
54:46even start
54:46because if the bracket
54:47just doesn't work out
54:48that way
54:49that they would face
54:49each other
54:50in the second round,
54:51there's literally
54:52a 0% chance
54:52that you win it.
54:53But it does give you
54:54the option
54:55if the bracket
54:55does fall in your favor
54:57and things advance,
54:58you are in a great
54:59spot to hedge.
55:01Expanded postseason
55:02now in Major League
55:03Baseball,
55:04six teams,
55:04three division winners,
55:06three wildcard spots,
55:07the two best records
55:08of being a division winner.
55:09They get that
55:10opening round by
55:12Vecchio,
55:12American League
55:13pennant prices
55:14right now.
55:14Here at the All-Star Break,
55:16is there a team
55:17that we all need
55:18to bet on
55:18before we get back
55:19underway on Friday?
55:21I mean,
55:22it's going to be
55:22the same thing.
55:23It's the Tigers,
55:23but it's probably
55:24going to be the Tigers
55:25in a different route.
55:26I also don't mind
55:27taking a shot on,
55:28I saw it before,
55:29the Red Sox
55:30to make the playoffs.
55:32Okay,
55:32so change after
55:33yesterday's win,
55:33but it's sitting
55:34at minus 140.
55:35I would monitor
55:35that number,
55:36and if you can get
55:36that plus money,
55:37let's say they lose
55:38their next couple games
55:38coming out of the
55:39All-Star Break,
55:40the Blue Jays win,
55:41the other wildcard teams
55:42win.
55:43I would be willing
55:43to take a spot
55:44on the Red Sox
55:45to make the playoffs
55:45only if you get it
55:46at plus money
55:47and then kind of
55:48filter in the other
55:48things of like
55:49the Tigers
55:49to beat the Astros
55:50in the ALCS.
55:51A minus 140 price
55:54right now
55:54on the Red Hot Red Sox
55:56who of course
55:56enter the All-Star Break
55:57winners of 10
55:59consecutive games.
56:00Boston in a wildcard spot
56:02and only three
56:03out of the top spot
56:04in the American League East
56:06currently occupied
56:07by the Blue Jays.
56:08TV Tom,
56:09Vecchio of Sports Grid,
56:11the Home Run Prop King
56:12delivering on
56:13Home Run Derby Day.
56:14Vecchio,
56:14we appreciate it
56:15as always,
56:16my man.
56:16We'll talk later this week.
56:18Thanks for having me.
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