EU summit: "Sense of concern about Putin's Russia is very significant"

CGTN Europe interviewed Dr. Mark Shanahan, Associate Professor of Politics at the University of Surrey

Transcript

00:00Dr. Mark Shanahan is Associate Professor of Politics at the University of Surrey.

00:04Mark, welcome back, good to see you.

00:06President Trump got almost everyone in NATO to cough up 5% GDP spend on defence.

00:12Now, of course, European countries have to find the cash.

00:15Will pleasing Mr. Trump on the international stage mean inflicting displeasure on the voters at home?

00:24Potentially, yes, but this is not an immediate hit for any country in Europe.

00:30The increase to 5% is due to happen by 2035, when, of course, Donald Trump will be long gone from the political scene.

00:38And it is notional in that sense.

00:42It's not all going to happen immediately for EU countries.

00:46The EU has flexed its rules so that they can increase spending over a four-year period up to 1.5% each year.

00:56But it will be significant pain.

00:59This is the end of the Cold War dividend for Europe, where America largely picked up the cost for the defence of Western Europe

01:07against, first of all, the Soviet Union and subsequently Russia.

01:12Russia remains a very significant threat.

01:16And I think citizens across Europe are going to have to suck up some pain to ensure a safe collective defence.

01:24We've heard a lot from the politicians over the last 24 hours, but not much from the people paying the bills.

01:30Will voters across Europe tolerate higher defence spending over the coming decade, higher taxes and poorer public services?

01:39If it is not imposed too harshly and too quickly, there is a real sense that Russia presents a significant threat to Western Europe.

01:52Whether you are in Poland or any of the other countries bordering Russia or further away in some of the bigger economies,

02:00France, Germany, the UK, that sense of concern about Putin's Russia at the moment is very, very significant.

02:09Even if there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, that ceasefire gives the Russians time to rebuild their forces.

02:18They're certainly going to spend more than 5% of GDP on their own defence.

02:23So there is a tacit understanding, country by country, it will be felt, there will be some protests.

02:30But overall, the political mood across NATO, the EU countries within that, are for a stronger defence and that's going to cost.

02:40Spain, of course, Spain's Prime Minister Sanchez publicly rejecting this 5% target, clashing with President Trump.

02:48Spain's judgment, presumably, that it needs to pay for health and education and social care, rather than an increase in defence spending.

02:58Was that a political misstep or calculated to retain support at home?

03:05The Prime Minister faces huge domestic issues in Spain.

03:10There are big corruption cases being pointed at his party.

03:14And at the moment, he is trying to avoid having to call snap elections.

03:19Now, in these get-togethers, like we saw in The Hague yesterday,

03:24a lot of what each individual leader says is more for their domestic audience than it is maybe to appease Donald Trump

03:32or to create some kind of argument with him.

03:36Donald Trump has got an awful lot on his plate as well.

03:39Spain doesn't rate very highly on that.

03:42He can't impose sanctions just on Spain in the way that, he says, because Spain is a member of the EU.

03:49I think this one will turn out to be a bit of a storm in a teacup.

03:54It will brew for a little while, but in the end, I think the US and Spain will remain reasonable friends,

04:01and I'm sure Spanish defence spending will rise.

04:05Mark, good to see you. Thanks for that.

04:06Dr Mark Shanahan, Associate Professor of Politics at the University of Surrey.