Analysis: NATO Summit Can't Afford To Overlook Indo-Pacific

TaiwanPlus News

Although Taiwan might seem far from NATO's principal concerns, its chief Mark Rutte says the Taiwan Strait could have immediate impacts on member nations and even possibly pull Europe into a potential conflict. Bryce Barros, associate fellow at GLOBSEC, discusses Rutte's comments and what strategic concerns are shared between NATO and its Indo-Pacific allies.

Transcript

00:00NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta is warning that Beijing's military build-up could drag

00:05Russia and Europe into a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

00:09And we are all very worried, of course, about the situation in Taiwan, and we also know

00:15that there is a risk that if the Chinese would try anything with Taiwan, that no doubt he

00:21will call his junior partner Mr. Putin and make sure that the junior partner in that

00:27relationship with China, Mr. Putin, will keep us busy here.

00:31Ruta made the remarks ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague.

00:34He stressed the alliance's close ties in the Asia-Pacific and the allies Japan, South Korea,

00:39Australia and New Zealand are also concerned about China's military expansion.

00:44At the summit, NATO members will commit to increasing defense spending to 5% of their

00:49country's GDP, a key demand from U.S. President Donald Trump.

00:54But some fear U.S. directs on Iran could overshadow the meeting.

01:00And for more on the NATO summit and what it could mean for the Asia-Pacific region, Alec

01:04McDonald spoke to Bryce Barrows, associate fellow at the NGO Globesec.

01:10What is the importance of this NATO summit to the Asia-Pacific region?

01:14And likewise, what is the importance of Asia-Pacific to NATO?

01:17The NATO summit unto itself is very important and NATO in the last few years, especially

01:24since the 2022 strategic concept has really noted that the Indo-Pacific is a priority for

01:30them because of the linkages between the two regions, right?

01:35And it goes not only from the idea that you have a larger neighbor invading a smaller neighbor,

01:42and what those parallels might mean for the Indo-Pacific, but also just like longstanding

01:46strategic concerns, right?

01:48So if you're in Tokyo, historically your biggest great power rival going back a century and

01:54a half or more has not been China per se, but it's been the Russian empire, the Soviet

01:59Union, and now to a lesser extent, or depending on who you talk to, in Tokyo, the Russian Federation,

02:04right?

02:05So I think trying to drive those linkages are really important.

02:16And it's not just something that, you know, looks good, feels good.

02:19It comes down to making sure that you're maintaining strong intelligence sharing.

02:23So Secretary General Mark Root said that a Taiwan Strait crisis could draw in Europe into

02:29such a conflict if Beijing calls upon Russia.

02:32How realistic is such a situation and what would be the consequences if this happens?

02:36Well, I think from a battlefield perspective, it's very unlikely you're going to see court,

02:43you will not see coordinated NATO organizational involvement.

02:48I think what you will see is potentially contributions from different member states, depending on the

02:55context of what that sort of conflict looks like, right?

02:59Obviously, Secretary General Root's sort of comments were right to raise the alarm, you

03:07know, as in that Europe cannot afford to see the Taiwan Strait sort of situation as a distant

03:12issue.

03:13And there's an evolving, you know, strategic entente between not only Russia and China, but

03:19also North Korea, and it's tightening.

03:22For example, Russia has conducted joint patrols like bomber patrols around Japan that happens

03:29every once in a while.

03:31There's a possibility of future trilateral exercises between North Korea, China and Russia, which

03:38also can serve as a strategic distraction and a pressure point in the event of a Taiwan

03:44crisis.

03:45So with the Asia Pacific region being so important to NATO, then how significant is it that South

03:50Korea, Australia and Japan will be skipping out on this summit?

03:55So I think the optics don't look good, even if Iran is not the only factor.

04:00I would highlight that for at least Japan and South Korea.

04:04That's not an insignificant reason for them to want to bow out.

04:08It's important to remember how much oil Japan and South Korea both receive from the Middle

04:13East.

04:14Any sort of crisis related to oil in the spot market directly impacts those economies a

04:19lot, much more than Australia directly, given that Australia also has like its own really

04:25strong oil production capacity and is involved in doing that in places around the Indo-Pacific,

04:31for example, like Brunei and other sort of parts of the region.

04:35So I do think the absence of U.S. allies, you know, from the IP4, with the exception of

04:39Prime Minister Chris Luxon of New Zealand, could hint a little bit at fractures and like

04:45coordination and trust.

04:48However, that doesn't take away from things that are happening at the working level, right?

04:53So with the war between Iran and Israel, which as we are talking is very much in fluctuation,

04:59what sort of talking points could that raise at the NATO summit?

05:03So NATO puts a big emphasis, or rather I shouldn't say that NATO as a whole does, but parts of

05:09the NATO sort of alliance structure, so member states, put a large emphasis on what they view

05:14as the South, right?

05:16So that includes discussions related to like migration through the Mediterranean for Southern

05:20member NATO states, right?

05:22Like Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, et cetera.

05:28So whatever sort of outflows from this sort of conflict that could happen related to migration,

05:35related to broader instability across the Middle East, that is always a concern for those particular

05:42member states of NATO.

05:44There's also a fear that it could distract a little bit from broader sort of pushes within

05:49NATO and the European Union to support Ukraine, which is something that I think is very much notable.

05:55Some of the other sort of aspects that could come from this too.

05:59There was Bryce Barrow's associate fellow at Globesec.

06:02Good job.

06:03Good job.

06:04Good job.

06:05Good job.

06:06Good job.

06:07Great job.

06:08Well, now to the 100, go to Kat, I'm the other person.

06:12Um, again, in some way, these were on ParkIS or, as I told the mechanics of turtles and

06:15they were their inseen two of spiels pid aula leaders, by sich, in rocket science of the

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