00:00NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta is warning that Beijing's military build-up could drag
00:05Russia and Europe into a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
00:09And we are all very worried, of course, about the situation in Taiwan, and we also know
00:15that there is a risk that if the Chinese would try anything with Taiwan, that no doubt he
00:21will call his junior partner Mr. Putin and make sure that the junior partner in that
00:27relationship with China, Mr. Putin, will keep us busy here.
00:31Ruta made the remarks ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague.
00:34He stressed the alliance's close ties in the Asia-Pacific and the allies Japan, South Korea,
00:39Australia and New Zealand are also concerned about China's military expansion.
00:44At the summit, NATO members will commit to increasing defense spending to 5% of their
00:49country's GDP, a key demand from U.S. President Donald Trump.
00:54But some fear U.S. directs on Iran could overshadow the meeting.
01:00And for more on the NATO summit and what it could mean for the Asia-Pacific region, Alec
01:04McDonald spoke to Bryce Barrows, associate fellow at the NGO Globesec.
01:10What is the importance of this NATO summit to the Asia-Pacific region?
01:14And likewise, what is the importance of Asia-Pacific to NATO?
01:17The NATO summit unto itself is very important and NATO in the last few years, especially
01:24since the 2022 strategic concept has really noted that the Indo-Pacific is a priority for
01:30them because of the linkages between the two regions, right?
01:35And it goes not only from the idea that you have a larger neighbor invading a smaller neighbor,
01:42and what those parallels might mean for the Indo-Pacific, but also just like longstanding
01:46strategic concerns, right?
01:48So if you're in Tokyo, historically your biggest great power rival going back a century and
01:54a half or more has not been China per se, but it's been the Russian empire, the Soviet
01:59Union, and now to a lesser extent, or depending on who you talk to, in Tokyo, the Russian Federation,
02:04right?
02:05So I think trying to drive those linkages are really important.
02:16And it's not just something that, you know, looks good, feels good.
02:19It comes down to making sure that you're maintaining strong intelligence sharing.
02:23So Secretary General Mark Root said that a Taiwan Strait crisis could draw in Europe into
02:29such a conflict if Beijing calls upon Russia.
02:32How realistic is such a situation and what would be the consequences if this happens?
02:36Well, I think from a battlefield perspective, it's very unlikely you're going to see court,
02:43you will not see coordinated NATO organizational involvement.
02:48I think what you will see is potentially contributions from different member states, depending on the
02:55context of what that sort of conflict looks like, right?
02:59Obviously, Secretary General Root's sort of comments were right to raise the alarm, you
03:07know, as in that Europe cannot afford to see the Taiwan Strait sort of situation as a distant
03:12issue.
03:13And there's an evolving, you know, strategic entente between not only Russia and China, but
03:19also North Korea, and it's tightening.
03:22For example, Russia has conducted joint patrols like bomber patrols around Japan that happens
03:29every once in a while.
03:31There's a possibility of future trilateral exercises between North Korea, China and Russia, which
03:38also can serve as a strategic distraction and a pressure point in the event of a Taiwan
03:44crisis.
03:45So with the Asia Pacific region being so important to NATO, then how significant is it that South
03:50Korea, Australia and Japan will be skipping out on this summit?
03:55So I think the optics don't look good, even if Iran is not the only factor.
04:00I would highlight that for at least Japan and South Korea.
04:04That's not an insignificant reason for them to want to bow out.
04:08It's important to remember how much oil Japan and South Korea both receive from the Middle
04:13East.
04:14Any sort of crisis related to oil in the spot market directly impacts those economies a
04:19lot, much more than Australia directly, given that Australia also has like its own really
04:25strong oil production capacity and is involved in doing that in places around the Indo-Pacific,
04:31for example, like Brunei and other sort of parts of the region.
04:35So I do think the absence of U.S. allies, you know, from the IP4, with the exception of
04:39Prime Minister Chris Luxon of New Zealand, could hint a little bit at fractures and like
04:45coordination and trust.
04:48However, that doesn't take away from things that are happening at the working level, right?
04:53So with the war between Iran and Israel, which as we are talking is very much in fluctuation,
04:59what sort of talking points could that raise at the NATO summit?
05:03So NATO puts a big emphasis, or rather I shouldn't say that NATO as a whole does, but parts of
05:09the NATO sort of alliance structure, so member states, put a large emphasis on what they view
05:14as the South, right?
05:16So that includes discussions related to like migration through the Mediterranean for Southern
05:20member NATO states, right?
05:22Like Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, et cetera.
05:28So whatever sort of outflows from this sort of conflict that could happen related to migration,
05:35related to broader instability across the Middle East, that is always a concern for those particular
05:42member states of NATO.
05:44There's also a fear that it could distract a little bit from broader sort of pushes within
05:49NATO and the European Union to support Ukraine, which is something that I think is very much notable.
05:55Some of the other sort of aspects that could come from this too.
05:59There was Bryce Barrow's associate fellow at Globesec.
06:02Good job.
06:03Good job.
06:04Good job.
06:05Good job.
06:06Good job.
06:07Great job.
06:08Well, now to the 100, go to Kat, I'm the other person.
06:12Um, again, in some way, these were on ParkIS or, as I told the mechanics of turtles and
06:15they were their inseen two of spiels pid aula leaders, by sich, in rocket science of the
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