00:00It wasn't Donald Trump's ceasefire declaration that caused the oil price to fall this morning,
00:06but news of Iran's attack on the American base in Qatar, which was not seen to be serious,
00:11and a sign that there wasn't going to be a war.
00:14The ceasefire post from Trump came later, and the price fell a bit more.
00:19So tonight, West Texas crude is down almost 11% from where it was this time last night.
00:23And basically, the oil price has returned to where it was before Israel attacked Iran on June the 12th.
00:30It's as if the whole thing didn't happen.
00:32The other context is that the oil price has been trending lower for three years,
00:36ever since the spike from the Russian invasion of Ukraine washed through.
00:41And the key reason for that is a build-up in OPEC's spare capacity,
00:45as interest rates have increased around the world and economic growth has slowed,
00:49and with it, demand for energy.
00:51And that's not expected to end any time soon.
00:54The International Energy Agency is predicting that growth in supply of oil this year
00:58will be a million barrels a day greater than growth in demand.
01:02And supply growth will outstrip demand growth next year as well.
01:05So aside from geopolitics, the pressure on the oil price is down.
01:10Energy stocks were dumped on the share market today, as you might expect,
01:13but users of energy, like airlines, did well,
01:16especially the refloated Virgin Australia,
01:18which closed its first day well up on the $2.90 that it floated at.
01:24Global share markets all went for a gallop
01:26as optimism about the peace in the Middle East broke out.
01:29And the Aussie dollar is also up, almost a full cent on last night.
01:34And that's finance.
01:35Thank you very much.
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