00:00Well, Israel has been systematically targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure over the last week.
00:06It's prompted fears of a strike on Iran's only operating nuclear power plant at Bushir.
00:11Russia is warning that it could trigger a catastrophic effect like Chernobyl.
00:17Paul Dorfman is the founder of the Nuclear Consulting Group.
00:20Paul, welcome. Good to see you.
00:22When you hear these words, Israel systematically targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure,
00:27just how worried should we be?
00:30I think we should be very concerned in terms of Bushir.
00:35Bushir is beside the coast. It's on the Gulf.
00:39The Gulf is a more is a landlocked sea, essentially, with a very small outlet at Tormuz.
00:46It turns over very slowly. It's about 35 meters deep.
00:51So if Bushir was hit and there was significant radiation pollution,
00:55then you're talking about significant radionuclide pollution to all of the Gulf.
00:59Now, what that means is that Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Saudi, UAE desalination plants,
01:08in other words, a significant amount of the drinking water of the Gulf states, would be severely impacted.
01:14Now, that's just the sea. In terms of the land, we know that the IR6 Iranian centrifuges have created about 440 kilograms of 60 percent highly enriched uranium,
01:28which is, you know, quite a nasty piece of kit.
01:32We know that it's in Natanz and in Fordow.
01:35Now, Natanz is about 8 meters below Hard Rock.
01:38Fordow is about 80 to 90 meters deep.
01:40And as you know, it can only be hit by U.S. bunker busting bombs, the GBU-57B bomb, 14 tons, 6 meters long,
01:50can only be launched by U.S. B-2 bombers.
01:52Now, that, those bombs have about a penetration of about 61 meters, so they couldn't actually, actually get into Natanz.
02:03Now, if that means, if that happens, then what next?
02:10It's actually a nuclear weapon?
02:13It's a pretty stark story that you lay out, so the obvious question, then,
02:19what might the possible intervention of the United States in this conflict mean for those possible nuclear dangers that you very clearly set out?
02:31Well, pre-2019, the JPOA, which was the multi-state agreement that the U.S., Obama, and Iran signed to limit Iran's nuclear military capacity,
02:48Iran had about 150 kilograms of uranium in reach to about 3.7 percent,
02:53which is the number that you need to power a civil nuclear reactor, in other words, non-military.
02:58Now, when Trump pulled out, then we know what happened since then.
03:06So the question is, can you bomb your way out of nuclear proliferation?
03:12One of the answers is that both the centrifuges and the 440 kilogram in reach to 60 percent can be moved.
03:20So, are we sure that even if Natanz and Ford were bombed, whether the U.S. gets the significant potentially nuclear inventory that Iran has?
03:35What does this mean in layman's terms for the individual living in that region?
03:43It means they are under risk.
03:49This business about turning plowsheeds into swords, it means that with increased nuclear proliferation in terms of civil nuclear reactors,
03:59you will get increased nuclear proliferation in an increasingly unstable world, so that in this case, it's Iran, in this case, it's the Gulf States.
04:12And both a hit on any and or all of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, and certainly on Iran's nuclear power plant in Bushia,
04:27which includes, of course, all of the high radiation spent fuel and spent fuel ponds,
04:32you would get a significant radiation release, both to air and to water.
04:39So it's very concerning. It's not a pretty picture.
04:43Paul, thank you for coming on the programme.
04:45Paul Dorfman, the founder of the Nuclear Consulting Group.
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