- 1 year ago
In this episode of News Today, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan discusses India's economic outlook amidst global uncertainties.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome to the news today, your prime time destination news, newsmakers, talking points.
00:06Our continuing focus on the world in conflict today.
00:10How is the cycle of conflicts affecting the economy?
00:14Can India weather global headwinds?
00:16My special guest tonight, Dr. Raghuram Rajan.
00:19We continue with having the major talking heads from across the world here on the news today.
00:25And also, Kamal Hassan at the heart of a Tamil Kannada Rao.
00:30What does it mean for linguistic battles?
00:33All that and more, but first as always, it's time for the Nine Headlines in Nine.
00:40The Chief of Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan, says losses in war don't matter.
00:46Outcomes do, doubles down on his claims.
00:48says Pakistan was forced to agree to a ceasefire in eight hours after Operation Sindhoor was launched.
00:58Rahul Gandhi now targets Prime Minister Modi over the ceasefire,
01:02claims that truce after Donald Trump said Narendra Modi surrender.
01:07This even has all party MP delegations return after global outreach on Park Terror.
01:12Opposition demands a special parliament session after Operation Sindhoor.
01:16US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik signals a Indo-US trade deal in the not-too-distant future,
01:27flags Russian arms and India's BRICS membership as irritants.
01:35Karnataka High Court tells actor Kamal Hassan don't stick to ego
01:39as he refuses to apologise for Tamil birth.
01:43Kannada remarked, actors' film won't release now in Karnataka.
01:50North East flood, debt toll rises to 36.
01:53Over 5 lakh people hit by deluge.
01:56Sikkim, Assam and Manipur are the worst hit.
02:00Rescue and relief operations are underway.
02:02Politics over the Muzaffarpur rape victim who died waiting for a hospital bed.
02:09Bihar government suspends the medical college superintendent.
02:12RJD's Tejasvi Yadav slams the government for medical negligence.
02:18Indian origin man in coma after Australian cop kneels on his neck.
02:22Australian authorities launch commissioner level inquiry.
02:25Ukraine escalates conflict after drone strikes.
02:31Conducts now an underwater strike on a bridge connecting Russian-occupied Crimea
02:35with the mainland Russia.
02:40And we will have a new IPL champion as RCB takes on Punjab in the mega-finals.
02:47Tensions soar as both sides look to win their first title.
03:00World got in cycle of conflicts.
03:11Trump's tariffs spark recession fears.
03:17The global economy faces uncertain times.
03:33India fastest growing economy at 6.5%.
03:44India set to become fourth largest economy.
03:47How can India weather global headwinds?
04:00That's right.
04:01Our top focus today.
04:02Amidst intensifying global conflicts and tariff wars.
04:06The Indian economy has been holding up.
04:09Last week, the official GDP numbers revealed that the economy had grown at 7.4% in the January
04:15to March quarter.
04:16And the overall GDP for 2024-25 stood at 6.5%, much better than most large economies.
04:25And yet, the global headwinds now suggest multiple challenges and possible opportunities in the months ahead.
04:33What lies ahead amidst the uncertainty to answer that critical question?
04:39Tonight, we have another major newsmaker, former RBI governor and leading global economic guru, Dr. Raghuram Rajan.
04:47And joining me now to look at how India and the world should see the global economy in these uncertain times is a very special guest.
05:03Former RBI governor and professor at the University of Chicago Booth School, Raghuram Rajan, good to have you once again on the show.
05:11Thank you very much.
05:13Thanks for having me.
05:14Professor Rajan, we spoke a couple of months ago, and since then, if anything, the world seems to be in an even more uncertain place.
05:24We've had the Trump tariffs still raging on, uncertainty over their future.
05:29We've had global conflicts, Russia, Ukraine intensifying, and even one here in the subcontinent between India and Pakistan.
05:36Given all that, how do you see the economic outlook in these uncertain times?
05:44Well, for sure, some slowing is on the cards, right?
05:48We came into this year with an extraordinary performance last year, certainly in the United States.
05:57But that's sort of off the cards now with the tariffs creating an enormous amount of uncertainty.
06:05Both in the United States, but across the world.
06:08So if you're a business person today, where do you invest?
06:13Do you invest keeping in mind the current level of tariffs?
06:16Do you keep in mind the tariffs going back to high levels if the reciprocal tariffs go back on July 9th, 10th?
06:24Or do you sort of think of some magical negotiation which is going to bring them all down?
06:30It's hard for any business person to invest at this point.
06:35And that's part of why the uncertainty is going to slow growth.
06:39Investment is in deep trouble at this point.
06:44But even in these uncertain times, India, last quarter figure, 7.4% growth rate, 24, 25, 6.5%.
06:57Yes, slowing down compared to previous years.
06:59But you could argue much better than many other large economies in the world.
07:04How much do you see India being buffeted by these global headwinds at the moment?
07:11Is India's growth rate satisfying in these uncertain times?
07:15Well, I think first, 6.5% is a very predictable growth rate.
07:21We should be careful about looking at the ups and downs of the year so far.
07:27Some of it was postponed government investment as the election cycle played out.
07:34Some of it is that subsidies were, you know, registered up front.
07:39And so you had a few quarters of really low growth and then a few quarters of really high growth.
07:43So these are just statistical artifacts.
07:46The number to focus on is the 6.5%.
07:48And, of course, one of the bright lights in recent weeks is that the monsoon looks like it's going to be a strong one,
07:57which is going to enhance agricultural growth.
08:00One of the big concerns in India is that consumption has been driven by the upper middle class so far.
08:08And the lower middle class, the agriculturists, the rural areas, they're starting to show up in the consumption numbers,
08:17even while the upper middle class is flagging.
08:20So there may be a handoff in consumption.
08:21That's a positive because, of course, you know, it also reduces inequality if the people who are worse off consume more.
08:30So broadly speaking, good.
08:33But we need more.
08:34I've been saying this, shouting from the rooftops forever so long.
08:39If we want to become a Vixit Desh by 2047, we need more like 8, 8.5, 9% growth because we are a relatively poor nation.
08:50And so that growth is what we should be aspiring for.
08:55This, I've said, could be India's moment, but we have to seize it.
08:59You know, you're saying India's moment because the headlines here just a couple of days ago was the IMF projecting India's nominal GDP to cross that of Japan,
09:09become the third largest economy, fourth largest economy in the world on its way to crossing, overtaking Japan.
09:19And yet, per capita income, well below that of Japan and many other countries in the world.
09:27Do you believe that, therefore, in your view, rather than look at that number, are we crossing Japan?
09:32When are we becoming the third largest economy next?
09:35The focus should be, what are we doing to reduce income inequality?
09:38What are we going to do to lift per capita income?
09:42And as you're saying now, 8, 8.5% needs to be the target.
09:46Am I correct?
09:46That's right.
09:48I mean, let's not minimize the fact that we are crossing these countries.
09:53We will cross Germany at some point over the next few years, maybe to one or two.
10:00Exchange rate fluctuations also have an effect.
10:02The Japanese yen has strengthened.
10:04So we should take this as evidence that we are on a good path, but not necessarily get overly enthusiastic about it.
10:14For the reasons you mentioned, we are much poorer than these countries.
10:18And what matters to the average citizen is how wealthy they are, not aggregate GDP, because we are the most populous country in the world.
10:27So aggregate GDP, overall GDP, is going to be quite high, even if every citizen is quite poor.
10:32But that said, I think going forward, there is an opportunity for us with some of the rethinking of manufacturing supply chains.
10:43There is also some possibility that with some of these actions against students across the world, not just in the United States, but many countries are now getting a little more worried about having students come in from outside.
11:01There is an opportunity for us to expand our education sector.
11:05Can we keep the students who we would otherwise send abroad and give them a first-rate education?
11:11But can we also improve the quality of our universities so that they produce more research, which is absolutely necessary for India to become an innovative nation?
11:19So I would say this is a moment of introspection.
11:22We need to think about how we look over the next 5, 10, 15 years.
11:29You know, certainly the manufacturing-led growth path is coming under some kind of cloud with all this protectionism.
11:36That's something we have talked about in our recent book, Breaking the Mold.
11:40But we also need every job we can get, which means we need to work very hard on skilling our population.
11:47We need to work very hard on creating new jobs in services.
11:51We need to work hard on creating new sources of exports.
11:55And that's why I think, you know, areas like the education sector, the healthcare sector could be also new areas of focus.
12:02I'll come to the economic challenges once again in a moment, but you just mentioned about education.
12:07The entire Trump policy taking on Harvard University, trying to put a stop to all foreign student visas has troubled many in this country.
12:17You just seem to suggest that that is actually an opportunity, perhaps, for Indian education to raise its standards and keep students within.
12:24That's not going to be very easy.
12:26What's your overall take on what Trump is doing to the higher education system in the United States?
12:32And do you see really an opportunity here for India or Indian students now finding it increasingly difficult to get into top-end American universities?
12:41Well, yes, it is an unfortunate action by the administration to target not just the universities, but the students within those universities, the international students.
12:55You must remember that international students coming into the United States is a big export for the United States.
13:00Forty-five billion is what they earned, some of which we are paying from India.
13:05When our students go there and we pay tuition fees, we're essentially paying for U.S. education.
13:13That's been good.
13:14I don't want to fault that.
13:16U.S. universities have benefited.
13:18Indian students have benefited and been able to get jobs across the world, but also bring back a high quality of learning to India.
13:25So this has been win-win, and it's unfortunate that we, that in the United States, you're seeing actions against this very source of well-being between the, you know, the U.S. and the rest of the world.
13:41It'll hurt the U.S. for sure.
13:43I think students are already asking, do I want to be there or do I want to go to Australia or the U.K., which may be a little more welcoming.
13:50But also, it is, you know, in the longer run, getting the best and the brightest into the United States has been a big source of growth.
13:59What I am saying is, let's try and find a silver lining in this cloud.
14:03It is a cloud.
14:04But the silver lining could be that if we focus on investing more in our education, including in our best universities, and bring them to a higher plane.
14:16China did this in the last 20 years.
14:18We can do it, and we absolutely need to do it if we want to have a place in the, you know, in research and development, if we want new products that, you know, we can sell to the rest of the world.
14:32These are areas where India is relatively weak.
14:35Which Indian product is sold across the world?
14:38Which Indian car has a global market?
14:41These are areas we need to focus on, and I think we can.
14:44But do you see a pushback to what Donald Trump has done with universities?
14:49Do you see American universities?
14:51You are, of course, a leading professor in one of them.
14:53Do you see a pushback in general in the next few months?
14:57I think there is a pushback, of course.
15:02I think Harvard is fighting back quite vigorously.
15:07But I think this is damaging no matter what happens, a fight between the universities and the government.
15:16Essentially, students become collateral damage.
15:20Research becomes collateral damage.
15:22A lot of medical research has been halted while the government thinks about funding.
15:28This creates enormous uncertainty amongst researchers.
15:33And, you know, I was in Singapore last week.
15:36The president of one of the universities there told me,
15:39we used to have a hit rate of 40% when we made offers to U.S. academics.
15:45Today the hit rate is 100%.
15:47So you are seeing a weakening of U.S. academia.
15:52Of course, it's very strong.
15:54And if these issues are resolved quickly, I don't see a longer-term significant weakening.
16:01But people remember.
16:02And people, when offered choice between two places, will pick the place they feel more comfortable in.
16:08Okay, let's turn then to another pushback, which is tariffs.
16:12The reason, we started off with tariffs and the uncertainty over it.
16:16We've just heard the U.S. Commerce Secretary saying that the India-U.S. trade deal is on track.
16:21He hopes to have some good news in the next few weeks.
16:24What's your sense?
16:25Because there are two types of responses to what Trump is doing.
16:29Either countries are looking him in the eye or they are falling in line.
16:34And stronger nations seem to be willing to look him in the eye.
16:36Should India be looking Trump in the eye and seeing how can we get a win-win out of this trade deal?
16:42Do you believe this trade deal, as and when it happens, is good for India?
16:46Or is this uncertainty over it one of the major headwinds we will face?
16:50Well, so long as we are careful about the areas which still need some support.
16:57I mean, certain parts of the agricultural sector will still need some support.
17:03So long as we are careful about that, broadly speaking, reducing our tariffs could be beneficial for us,
17:11even as we make a play for becoming host to many of the supply chains that crisscross the world.
17:18So in that, I don't see it as a win-lose if India accepts lower tariffs and does a deal with the United States.
17:25I don't see it as us kowtowing to them, but we have to do it with our interests in mind.
17:31Where are the areas that we can easily afford to bring down tariffs?
17:35Our industry, in many situations, actually becomes more competitive when they're forced to compete with imports and compete on a global stage.
17:46Remember, in the early 2000s, we were world beaters.
17:49Our industry felt it could take on the world.
17:52We need that kind of sort of enthusiasm again.
17:57That said, you know, even as the tariffs get sort of settled,
18:03there is the huge issue of if the tariffs on China remain high from the United States,
18:09Chinese goods will look for a home elsewhere.
18:11And, you know, one of the homes will be India.
18:15So we will have to figure out how we manage that without, on the one hand, reducing tariffs to the U.S.,
18:22but elevating tariffs to the rest of the world.
18:24Again, we need to be very clever about it, that where we benefit from Chinese imports,
18:30we should focus on keeping tariffs low.
18:33But, of course, where there is dumping, we have to be careful about having an open door.
18:38You know, you just mentioned the China factor.
18:40There is also talk that you could have a U.S.-China trade deal.
18:46There are those who are now using the word, Professor Rajan, taco.
18:51Trump always chickens out.
18:54Do you believe that he is bargaining hard with the Chinese?
18:57And is that also something we should be looking at very carefully from our perspective?
19:03As you said, the fear that if tariffs remain high with China,
19:06there could be dumping of goods in this country.
19:09Is China the X factor when I look at global headwinds over the next few months?
19:13Well, I would say anybody who says they can predict what this administration will do,
19:20you know, is being overly optimistic.
19:23I think we have seen backward, forward, left, right, all kinds of moves by the administration,
19:33suggesting that, you know, there isn't a clear overall plan.
19:37It depends to some extent.
19:39There are factions in the administration.
19:41It depends which faction has the year of the president at a particular point in time.
19:45For example, if you remember, in the election campaign, it was all about, you know, China
19:52being the sort of rival, geopolitical rival, and therefore tariffs had to be really high
19:57on it.
19:59But, of course, we've seen that in recent weeks there's more of a dialogue initiated with China,
20:07China, even while, you know, Europe seems to be a little more of the enemy.
20:12So, I think it's hard to predict what will happen.
20:16But almost surely, I think we'll see the contours.
20:20We have to see the contours of some kind of agreement.
20:22It won't be full, because trade agreements take a long time, but, you know, some kind
20:29of framework soon, otherwise the uncertainty will kill.
20:34Professor Rajan, there's one other potential headwind looking at the future.
20:39The recently released minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting held in early May warned
20:45of high inflation in the United States because of Trump's policies.
20:49Now, if high inflation happens and the U.S. goes into recession, how worrying is that for
20:55India?
20:56How should India be looking at that possibility?
21:01Well, if it's a serious downturn and that will be accompanied by job losses, I think the
21:09Fed will have, at that point, enough information to cut and it will start cutting.
21:14What the Fed will not do is preemptive cuts, anticipating that slowdown, because the
21:19economy has been quite resilient so far.
21:21The hard data are still, maybe it changes with this Friday's labor market numbers, but
21:27the hard data in the U.S. are still with a reasonably, you know, strong economy.
21:33So, I think every estimate of growth over the coming year is down.
21:42Last year was 2.8 percent.
21:44This year, you know, 1 percent seems like where a number of investment banks have coordinated.
21:51And 1 percent means you're not that far from a recession.
21:56So, I think the Fed will certainly wait and see.
22:02If the recession is bad, it can cut interest rates.
22:05It has a fair amount of ammunition.
22:08But, you know, there's no offsetting the kinds of headwinds that we talked about earlier, which
22:14is issues like the uncertainty about tariffs, the uncertainty about government policy and investments.
22:23So, you know, the Fed can do a little bit, but it could be that, you know, the downturn
22:29is hard to sort of offset, at least for a while.
22:33So, but what's your sense?
22:35Is America, is the fear of recession real?
22:39It is.
22:40It is.
22:41Because your sort of baseline estimate of growth is much lower than it was at the beginning
22:48of the year as a result of what has happened so far.
22:51So, you're flirting more with recession.
22:54You know, is it a certainty?
22:55No, absolutely not.
22:57If everything is reversed, the tariffs are reversed, could growth pick up quite strongly?
23:03Yes.
23:04But if we continue with the uncertainty, we, you know, have days of 50% tariffs, days of
23:10100% tariffs, and then back and forth, I think the likelihood of a recession increases considerably.
23:17At this point, it's still, in my view, below 50%, but it is something that depends intimately
23:24on how policy evolves.
23:26At the same time, Professor Rajan, global supply chains being re-evaluated, restructured
23:32in this post-pandemic world, given also the uncertainty over U.S.-China's trade war, could
23:38India emerge as a key beneficiary?
23:40There's a sense that this could be, as you said earlier, our moment.
23:43Is one of that moment to sort of replace, if not replace, at least be seen as an alternate
23:49to global supply chains?
23:51Do you believe that that's an opportunity?
23:54Or with Donald Trump speaking about making America great again, even telling Apple that,
24:00you know, you don't produce in India for America, how do you see it?
24:05Is this an opportunity?
24:06Or is Donald Trump going to play a spoiled sport?
24:09It is definitely an opportunity, but we have to be very diplomatic about it.
24:15I wouldn't trump from the rooftops that doesn't such player as bringing that supply chain in.
24:21I would keep relatively quiet about it, but do my best to attract every kind of manufacturer
24:26I can to come to the country, as well as service providers.
24:30There's no reason why it only needs to be manufacturing.
24:32You know, that means doing our homework, what we've always insisted we're doing,
24:38but we need to do more of.
24:40Make the playing field a little more welcoming.
24:43Stop having tax demands on business people which come out of the blue,
24:48which vitiate all their operations for many years.
24:51I mean, have some control.
24:52I mean, this is something that even within the government,
24:54you hear sort of worries about this kind of tax demand coming.
24:59But the government needs to control its tax authorities.
25:03Similarly, I think the level playing field on rules and regulations.
25:08You can't suddenly invent a regulation to benefit Indian national champions,
25:12even while, you know, hurting foreign investors who've come in.
25:17Nobody wants privileges, but they want some certainty about policies.
25:23And if we can give them that at this point,
25:25and rein in some of the undue demands we have,
25:29I think we could certainly, you know, attract more.
25:33Of course, we also need to do homework for domestic firms,
25:37you know, easier rules and regulations, more transparent,
25:42as well as focus on things like land acquisition and so on,
25:45which have been often a bugbear.
25:47But that said, we've made enormous improvements in infrastructure,
25:51which I think will be helpful for whatever sets up in India.
25:55So what you're saying, net-net, is ease of doing business
25:57based on ensuring stable policies and critical reforms.
26:03Am I correct?
26:04The worry is, of course, that the ease of doing business is spoken about,
26:09but on the ground,
26:10businessmen still find India a tough place to do business in.
26:13Absolutely.
26:15So I would have,
26:17so we had a committee which was set up in the last budget.
26:21I would accelerate the working of that committee.
26:24The CEA has said basically that we should look inwardly
26:29to see what we need to remedy.
26:31I agree entirely with that view.
26:33And we should hear people on the ground.
26:36There's no point sort of ticking off
26:37thus and such doing business measures that the World Bank puts out.
26:41We need to ask business people on the ground,
26:44have things improved,
26:46and utilize information technology to the maximum extent possible,
26:50both to facilitate the compliance with rules,
26:55but also to pick out rogue bureaucrats
26:58who are holding up business.
27:01We need to do that effectively if we are going to make a difference.
27:05We spoke a little earlier about the trade deal.
27:08Now, one of the concerns is potential U.S. demands
27:13for access to India's agriculture and dairy sectors.
27:16An opinion seems divided.
27:18A recent Niti Aayog working paper has argued
27:21India should offer concessions on agriculture products from U.S.,
27:24such as edible oils and nuts,
27:26where domestic supply gaps exist.
27:28Do you believe that,
27:30because that has often been the big hurdle
27:33to ensuring trade deals with different parts of the world.
27:36We've just done one with the United Kingdom.
27:38Do you believe it's time to open up agriculture as well?
27:41Should there be a full-blown trade deal with the United States,
27:46or do we go step by step?
27:48We should introspect and open up judiciously.
27:54I don't think agriculture should be completely off-bounds.
27:58There are places where our farmers,
28:00agriculturalists, or horticulturalists,
28:04are competitive with the rest of the world,
28:06or with a little bit of extra investment
28:08could be competitive.
28:10I think that should be seen as an opportunity,
28:12and to the extent that we can, you know,
28:15do deals where they open up also,
28:18even as we open up,
28:19it may benefit both countries.
28:21But that requires looking at each and every sector
28:24with a close eye and not going in with,
28:28you know, even the word that you use, concession.
28:31It may be, it may not necessarily be a concession.
28:35It could be win-win.
28:36If we get access to some of their markets
28:39for our agriculturists.
28:41I mean, we need to take them into confidence.
28:44We need to persuade.
28:45But it doesn't need to be that
28:47every time we reduce an agricultural tariff,
28:49that's a loss for India.
28:50We started this chat, Professor Rajan,
28:55by saying that India, at the moment,
28:57among large economies,
28:58doing relatively better.
29:00But as you said,
29:02for the future, that's just not good enough.
29:05We need to grow at 8.5%.
29:07Do you believe the key, therefore,
29:10lies in stimulating private consumption
29:12and indeed some element of manufacturing
29:15which really hasn't kept up
29:17with other sectors of the economy?
29:19And where would you start?
29:20So if today you were told,
29:23Dr. Rajan,
29:24how do we move from 6.5 to 8.5
29:27given the uncertain global climate
29:29in the next couple of years,
29:30what would you say?
29:31Or should we just wait and see
29:33what happens over the next 12 months
29:34given the uncertainties across the world?
29:37No, you know, my worry is
29:39we're both complacent at the business level
29:42and complacent at the governance level.
29:45That somehow we've eased into this,
29:48oh, we're growing so well,
29:49we've just overtaken Japan, etc.
29:51We're doing fine.
29:52We're not.
29:53This is the time of our maximum population dividend.
29:57And if we're not creating jobs,
29:58we're not employing people,
29:59we're not growing at 2%
30:00decades,
30:06we're underperforming.
30:07And so we need to shed this complacency,
30:11which means that, you know,
30:12look, be pragmatic.
30:14Don't go with ideological blinkers.
30:16Manufacturing is the only way
30:17or services is the only way.
30:19Do everything that works
30:20and energize the states.
30:23A lot of states now want to do more.
30:26Draw them in along with the center
30:28and learn from the best practices
30:30that states have.
30:31For example,
30:32Tamil Nadu has this
30:33semi-private organization
30:34called Guidance,
30:36which helps businesses
30:38from outside set up in India.
30:40They also help businesses
30:41within India set up in Tamil Nadu.
30:44Why can't we sort of
30:45roll that out more widely,
30:48learn from what seems to be working
30:50amongst our states,
30:53and join with the center?
30:55It can't be that the center says
30:56you invest only in this state
30:57or that state.
30:58It has to be,
30:59you invest in India.
31:00India is open.
31:01And whatever the state comes up,
31:03I'm going to support it.
31:05We need to think
31:06across every dimension
31:08at this point.
31:09There is a sense of urgency
31:10which I feel sometimes is lacking.
31:13We need to develop that
31:14because if this time
31:16is to be our time,
31:17we need to work on every front.
31:19A final question.
31:20You've been traveling
31:20across the world.
31:21I saw you in Singapore
31:22a few days ago.
31:24How is the world
31:25looking at India?
31:26We've just gone through,
31:28as I said,
31:28this conflict with Pakistan,
31:29the uncertainty,
31:31the element of destabilization
31:33that followed that.
31:35Is the world looking at India
31:37with renewed eyes
31:38as a potential marketplace,
31:42as a global supply chain,
31:44an alternate to China?
31:46Or do we need to do,
31:47as you've been saying,
31:48much more to get the world
31:50to take real notice of India
31:52and the India story?
31:53Well, I think that one worry,
31:56I don't want to talk about
31:58the broader issues.
32:00That is not my area of expertise.
32:01But one worry about the conflict
32:04with Pakistan is it raised questions
32:06about geopolitical stability
32:09in this area of the world
32:10and also, in a sense,
32:13put us back in a bucket
32:15with Pakistan.
32:17We need to avoid that
32:19because we need to see ourselves
32:21as a much bigger global player
32:23and that, you know,
32:25we have a much more stable
32:27political regime.
32:29And therefore,
32:30our focus is beyond sort of nitty,
32:33you know, jit pit with neighbors.
32:36Again, I don't want to say it's that.
32:38I just want to say
32:39that we need to rise above
32:40the sense that we are held
32:43it on equal terms
32:46with our small neighbors.
32:48To some extent,
32:49our bigger concern
32:51is that we, you know,
32:53become competitive with China.
32:56And, you know,
32:58rather than put Pakistan
32:59as the sort of,
33:05as being clubbed with Pakistan,
33:07better to be India-China,
33:08and then we have
33:10an elevated sort of position
33:14in people's minds.
33:16But net-net,
33:16the world looking at India
33:18with optimism,
33:19even in these troubled,
33:20difficult, uncertain times?
33:23I think people are looking
33:24for places to invest.
33:28And I think that
33:30there are many things
33:33which are going right for India,
33:34including a large domestic market.
33:37I do think that, you know,
33:40there are areas
33:42we need to work on.
33:44For example,
33:45if we want to improve
33:47the quality of our universities,
33:48we also need to focus
33:49on freedom of speech
33:50within the universities.
33:52That's something
33:53that is putting people off
33:54in the U.S.
33:56We shouldn't, you know,
33:57ensure that it puts people off India.
33:59So I think there's work to do.
34:03But I do think
34:05that we have a chance
34:07and it is for us
34:09to lose it.
34:10So, you know,
34:12let's put all the effort we can.
34:16Okay.
34:17Professor Rajan,
34:18as always,
34:19it's a pleasure talking to you.
34:20You've given us
34:21a really broad overview
34:22of the opportunities
34:23and challenges
34:24that lie ahead
34:26for India
34:26and indeed economies
34:28across the world.
34:29As always,
34:29a pleasure talking to you.
34:30Thank you so much
34:31for giving us the time.
34:33Most welcome.
34:34Okay, from that interview,
34:48very illuminating
34:49on the state
34:50of global economies
34:51and India's challenges
34:52and opportunities,
34:52let's turn back home
34:54to a big political story
34:55where actor-politician
34:57Kamal Hassan Rao,
34:59with his recent statement
35:00that Kannada was born
35:02out of Tamil,
35:03refuses to die down.
35:04The remark, remember,
35:05hadn't gone down well
35:06in Karnataka
35:07where language activists
35:08are calling for a ban
35:09on his recent movie,
35:11Thug Life.
35:12Today,
35:12the Karnataka High Court
35:13gave the actor
35:14a chance to apologize,
35:15but he refused.
35:17Instead,
35:17Kamal Hassan
35:18has decided
35:18not to release his movie
35:20in Karnataka for now.
35:22Split wide open,
35:23Tamil Nadu
35:24and Karnataka.
35:25Take a look.
35:39After Kamal Hassan
35:40moved the Karnataka
35:41High Court
35:42seeking protection
35:43for release of his film
35:44Thug Life in the State,
35:46the judges
35:47pulled up the superstar
35:48for not apologizing
35:49for his statement
35:50that Kannada
35:51was born out of Tamil.
35:52Kamal, however,
35:56is defiant.
35:59After the High Court
36:00questioned Kamal
36:01why he cannot apologize
36:02for the statement
36:03that has caused
36:04outrage in Karnataka,
36:06Kamal has decided
36:07to suspend
36:08the release of his movie
36:09Thug Life
36:10in Karnataka for now.
36:12Kamal informed the court
36:13that he had said
36:14what he had to say
36:15in a letter
36:15to the Karnataka film body.
36:18The actor said
36:19he had no intention
36:20to insult Kannada,
36:21that he had made
36:22the statement
36:23with sincerity
36:24and that he won't back out.
36:28Following Kamal's submission,
36:30the court told the actor
36:31that an apology
36:32should have been
36:33out of grace
36:33and that Kamal
36:34was sticking to his ego.
36:37The court also told Kamal
36:39that there were many ways
36:40to clarify things,
36:42but only one way
36:43of apologizing.
36:47Adjourning the hearing,
36:48the High Court
36:48asked Kamal
36:49to hold talks
36:50with the Karnataka film chamber
36:51and decide
36:52on the release
36:53of the movie.
36:58Pro-Karnada groups
37:00continue to demand
37:01an apology
37:01from Kamal has.
37:04The whole controversy
37:06was triggered
37:06by a remark
37:07made by Kamal
37:08at a promotion
37:09event of his film
37:10Tug Life.
37:11of the Karnataka film.
37:13Politicians are not qualified to talk about language.
37:40They don't have the education enough to talk about it, that includes me.
37:45So let's leave all these very in-depth discussions to historians, archaeologists and language experts.
37:58With Sagai Raj in Bengaluru, Bureau Report, India Today.
38:05So how should we interpret this linguistic battle between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka?
38:11Joining me now, Dr. Chandan Gowda, Professor in Dean School of Liberal Arts at Vidya Shilp University, Bengaluru.
38:18And Professor K. Hari Aran, author Kamal Hassan, A Cinematic Journey.
38:22Appreciate both of you joining us. Professor Hari Aran, to you first.
38:26How do you see Kamal Hassan speaking out in the manner that he has?
38:31Is it a misunderstanding or did he show somewhere a linguistic insensitivity?
38:35Or is it as some are suggesting only an attempt to promote his movie?
38:41Well, if you ask me opinion, if you are going to a function to promote your film, I think that as a producer, director, actor, you should focus on your film.
38:54I am completely dismayed. I am surprised why he even started talking about language.
39:00In Kerala also he said the same thing. In Karnataka also he is saying the same thing.
39:04Instead of focusing on the points to be watched in his film and he moved into language.
39:11And this is for me, I am dismayed.
39:13No, but why do you think as his biographer, why do you think you've tracked him for years.
39:17Why do you think Kamal Hassan, is his politics somewhere getting mixed with his cinema increasingly?
39:23I think so. Definitely. There is no doubt about it.
39:27Because he is now becoming an active member, a supporter of the DMP party.
39:31And he is becoming a Rajya Sabha member now.
39:34So, somewhere I think he has to talk about certain things, which I think is not necessary at all.
39:40You know, when you are talking about a film release, you know.
39:43Probably that is definitely influencing. I have no doubt about it.
39:46But as a person, I will only say that.
39:49Yes, go ahead.
39:50As a person, I will say that, you see, I am a person who believes that we should have a respect for the diversity of our languages.
39:57Rather than focus on this language is a mother tongue or that language is a father.
40:01Why do we even talk about it, you know.
40:03India is such a complex linguistic nation, you know.
40:06With so many languages and dialects.
40:08And to focus on one language being the mother or something like that, I really don't understand why you should speak this at all.
40:15Given what you've just heard, Dr. Chandan Gowda, on the flip side, is there an overreaction in Karnataka?
40:22Could this have been handled better?
40:24I mean, suddenly, Karnata activists are coming out on the streets demanding a ban on the movie.
40:30Is that also a bit of an overreaction?
40:32Rajdeep, I think this, what you're seeing as an overreaction is actually a response to Kamala's unwillingness to show any sense of regret about what he has said.
40:47I think that has actually added to it.
40:49And now it's become a question of, we can't be pushovas.
40:52We'll have to, you know, make sure that he pays for his defiance.
40:57He's reached that point.
40:59Rajdeep, you know, not to approve of the actions of, you know, banning or boycotting films.
41:05But Kamala's and being a public figure has to have a great sense of responsibility and sensitivity to his actions in public.
41:14And he can't pretend to be a liberal citizen who can take the courts to court to protect him.
41:19Here, it's a different politics, a political culture at work.
41:23A community which is genuinely saying, a community in the sense, a representative saying that, you know, this is wrong when you have said that.
41:31He should have shown some sensitivity.
41:33And it would have only increased his stature, I think.
41:37And his huge stature.
41:39No, but there are, but Dr. Gowda, there are two ways to look at it.
41:43One, of course, is those who are saying this is diminishing the independent heritage of the Kannada language.
41:49Others would say, look, why not have a rational discussion on the fact that the shared Dravidian roots in a way of various languages.
41:57So while respecting diversity, you can also surely have a rational discussion.
42:01Is it not possible to have a rational discussion on language?
42:05It is possible.
42:06And I think Kabbalasan should have taken the first step towards the direction, instead of insisting that what he said is probably correct.
42:15Rajdeep, the shared Dravidian heritage, everyone agrees.
42:19It's a question of which language came first.
42:21And here linguistic historians think all South Indian languages were around around the same time.
42:26There is no way of establishing which was their first.
42:29Be that as it may, Rajdeep.
42:31Again, I think we are back to the specifics of India's public culture, political culture, where, you know, there are fake instances of a community pretending to be hurt, etc.
42:42This is not one such instance.
42:43I think it's established that Kamal's claim was factually untenable.
42:48And the whole thing would have been gracefully handled if he had only made a gesture of, you know, admission that he may have been wrong, which we didn't see.
42:57And now you see the, you know, flexing of muscles.
43:00You know, this is a familiar politics.
43:01You know, I can imagine Canada activists not wanting to be seen as pushovers in this case.
43:06It's time to make our presence felt, you know, in all these ways that is now not so alien to us.
43:11But, Professor Haryanand, this whole notion of Tamil identity, Tamil pride, heart of the Dravidian movement, as you said, Kamal Hassan now aligning himself with the DMK.
43:23Do you believe that this pits one language against the other?
43:27You know, you can speak of Tamil pride, Tamil identity without necessarily pitting it against another language.
43:33Is that the mistake in a way that Kamal Hassan made?
43:35He could have spoken about his pride in Tamil identity and culture without pitting it against Karnataka and Kannadigas.
43:43I'm completely in agreement with you.
43:45I mean, after all, look at the film that this film is now.
43:48This is a multi-star cast.
43:50It has got actors from all over India.
43:52And many of the actors who are acting in the film don't really speak Tamil, but they are acting.
43:57So, and he is dubbing this film in so many other languages.
44:00So, we are already looking at a diversity of one film coming to reach so many people.
44:06And already the Telugu films have done it so well.
44:08You know, they have really created what we call a pan-Indian audience.
44:11And now, in this time and moment, you know, to say that there is a Tamil language, this film is not going to be seen in Tamil across the country.
44:19It is going to be seen in Hindi and Bengali and Gujarati and Marathi.
44:23So, why are we actually picking up a language issue when promoting this film?
44:27That's my own question.
44:28Right.
44:29So, as you said, I think Kamal Asan, you believe, has got that part horribly wrong.
44:33But Chandran Gowda, you wanted to intervene.
44:35You raised your…
44:36When I said, this is also at one level, could Kamal Asan reflect Tamil pride without undermining Kannadiga pride?
44:45Absolutely.
44:46He could have done that.
44:48There's plenty of scope for that.
44:49And Rajdeep, what is ironic is, as a DMK-backed Rajji Sabha MP, he's actually not being mindful of DMK's politics of resisting Hindi.
45:00And if you remember, Rajdeep, the linguistic rival of Kannada was in Bangalore, was Tamil for the longest time, but no longer.
45:08You know, Hindi had taken its place.
45:10In fact, there was a shared, you know, plank of South Indian languages trying to come together to resist Hindi, etc.
45:15And DMK was in the forefront of that politics.
45:18And Kamal Asan seems to have, you know…
45:20No, but why even resist Hindi?
45:22You see, but Professor Gowda, why even resist Hindi?
45:25I mean, here is Kamal Asan, who's happily dubbing his film in Hindi.
45:28No, no.
45:29When it comes to commercialization of cinema, you want your film in every language.
45:32I mean, has the time come to move away from these linguistic battles, pitting one language against the other?
45:39I agree.
45:40I agree.
45:41It's not Hindi's not to be othered like that.
45:44The politics of Hindi, imposition is to be protested, Rajdeep.
45:47Not the speakers of Hindi themselves, who may not have anything to do with the, you know, these larger politics of pushing languages against each other.
45:54You're absolutely right.
45:55I didn't want to make it seem like the language communities are at war.
45:59I take your point.
46:00I take your point.
46:01Mr. Hariharan, as his biographer, would you advise Kamal Asan then to apologize?
46:04If you were in Kamal Asan's place, he's abroad at the moment.
46:06Film not being shown in Karnataka, this battle.
46:09The court also today asking him to apologize.
46:11Do you believe it's become an ego battle now?
46:14It is.
46:15I think so.
46:16It's very clear.
46:17I think what he should do is just go…
46:18For me, the key person, there is Shiv Kumar, you know, Shiv Raj Kumar.
46:22If he goes and embraces him and he says, just forget this and get into the movie business, you know,
46:27I think a lot of things would be solved.
46:29He has to have it at his equation, you see.
46:32A court intervening in this thing is just making it messier.
46:36Right.
46:37Well, I hope that Kamal Asan is listening to some sane voices.
46:40This is a moment where you actually need to celebrate India's linguistic diversity,
46:45particularly when a film like this is being released in multiple languages.
46:49The last thing we need is a linguistic conflict being caused by an actor's comments, an actor turned politician.
46:55Chandran Gowda, Professor Hariharan, both of you appreciate you joining us here on My Talking Point this evening.
47:01Thank you so much.
47:02Let's turn to our Get Real India story and it comes from the state of Rajasthan,
47:07where about 18,000 scooties meant for meritorious schoolgirls in the state are now lying unused and gathering dust.
47:14The BJP-led Rajasthan government has alleged irregularities in the scheme that were first announced by the previous Congress-led Gaylord government
47:22and has now started distributing new scooties under its own scheme.
47:26But what happens to the old one?
47:28Let's take a look at tonight's Get Real India story.
47:38Scooties gathering dust and rust.
47:41Over 18,000 of them meant to be distributed among meritorious girls from Class 12
47:47are lying in open grounds and warehouses across Rajasthan becoming junk.
47:52This compound is near the collector's office in Dosa.
47:56There are 1,274 scooties here.
48:00These were bought by the Ashok Ghalod government to be handed over in 2022-23.
48:05By the time 222 were given, the election code of conduct was imposed, stopping the distribution.
48:12Komal Kavar passed out in 2023.
48:16She visits the collector's office regularly for an update.
48:20My name is Komal Kavar.
48:22My name is Komal Kavar.
48:23My name is Komal Kavar.
48:24In 2022-23, my first year was 88% in the 2018.
48:26This was the last year.
48:27This was the last year.
48:28The last year was the last year.
48:29The last year was the final.
48:31But now the school has not been given.
48:33The government has given it.
48:35Now, the government has given it.
48:37Komal Meena scored 86% marks in Class 12.
48:41Next year, she will complete graduation.
48:42Next year, she will complete graduation.
48:44If we meet this school, we won't get to.
48:45There is no churchиля to come.
48:46It is a barrier to come.
48:49At the school for two weeks after school.
48:50I stayed for three or four years.
48:53I'm waiting for this school.
48:54I saw this school.
48:55I have seen the school.
48:56It is a barrier to come.
48:57It will go and get us.
48:58It will also get us.
48:59And it will also get us.
49:01Inference will be?
49:02In-surance will also get us.
49:03The source of this issue is also got us.
49:05Because there are higher authorities from the government,
49:07that is why the college name is not getting us.
49:10In Baswara, the scooties are lying in an open yard where shrubs have outgrown the vehicles.
49:29But what explains this rot?
49:31The Ashok Gailodh government purchased 33,000 scooties for distribution in 2022-23 and 2023-24.
49:43Around 15,000 were distributed before the election court set in.
49:47The new BJP government headed by Bhajanlal Sharma ordered an investigation into the purchase of scooties by the previous government alleging corruption.
49:57Meanwhile, the BJP government started distributing scooties to students of 2024-25 session.
50:03Caught in the political crossfire are young students like Komal.
50:27Their aspirations, unfortunately, will have to take the back seat.
50:31Visharat Kumar, Rajesh Soni and Suresh Fajdar, Bureau Report, India Today.
50:39Let's turn from there to our continuing focus on the floods that have hit the states of the northeast of the country.
50:46The debt toll has now crossed 35.
50:49Over 5 lakh people have been affected across the region.
50:52Here is tonight's ground report, once again, from the flood-hit northeast states.
51:01Northeastern states are reeling from severe floods.
51:13At least 36 people have died and over 5.5 lakh people have been affected across the region.
51:28Assam remains the worst-hit state where 11 people have lost their lives and over 5 lakh people have been impacted across 22 districts.
51:38There is a red alert as far as rain is concerned.
51:45I am standing just on the riverbank of Brahmaputra.
51:47You can see that heavy current in Brahmaputra right now and the low-lying areas have already been flooded.
51:54And the current clearly depicts that the flow of the river is very high at the moment.
52:00But the situation still remains to be grim.
52:02There are places which remain to be inundated and efforts are being made to rescue people from those areas.
52:08Aerial footage reveals vast stretches of submerged villages in Assam with only rooftops visible above the floodwaters.
52:18We have formula of disbursing relief.
52:22I have already advised the city to upload the names of the people who are suffering.
52:27In Manipur, about 20,000 people are displaced.
52:37And more than 3,000 houses have been destroyed as rivers, Imphal and Iril breach their banks.
52:45The state government has opened 37 relief camps to shelter those affected.
52:54Behind me, you can see the scales of flooding.
53:00Many localities of Kurai, Haingang and Purumpath, Chekons remain underwater.
53:06And it is not just homes that have been hit.
53:09Even key government offices, including the D.C. complex, the Directorate of Environment and Climate Change,
53:15and the SP office located in Imphal, have all been summers.
53:19In Sikkim, a landslide claimed the lives of three security personnel,
53:25underscoring the perilous conditions faced by both residents and rescuers.
53:31Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured Chief Ministers of Northeastern states of full central support,
53:58and has emphasised the urgency of coordinated relief operations.
54:05As the monsoon batters the northeastern states,
54:09the regional MET Centre in Goahati has forecast moderate to very heavy rainfall across Assam.
54:20Authorities across the north-east remain on high alert amid ongoing rescue, relief and restoration efforts.
54:28With Tapas Sengupta in Assam, and B.B. Shirin in Manipur, Bureau Report, India Today.
54:37And right through this week, we will have stories from across the north-east on the flood situation.
54:44I want to end my news today tonight with a good news today story.
54:48An elephant sanctuary in Jarkhand has also now become a museum that showcases the best of tribal life.
54:55I leave you with that story.
54:57Thanks for watching.
54:58Stay well, stay safe.
54:59Good night.
54:59Shubhraatari.
55:00Jai Hind.
55:01Namaskar.
55:02Dalma's wild wonders now come with a cultural twist.
55:08The elephant sanctuary in Jarkhand has unveiled a tribal heritage museum.
55:13The museum showcases the life and legacy of nine tribal subgroups like the Bhoomij and Birhor.
55:19The museum is planning LED displays to draw in younger visitors.
55:37The forest department says this isn't just heritage on display, it's tourism with a purpose.
55:59Dalma's wild heart now beats with tribal pride, where culture and conservation work side-by-side.
56:19With Anoop Sinha, Bureau Report, India Today.
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