Exploring College Football's Playoff Expansion & Scheduling

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00:00At the end of May, spring meetings for a bunch of the power conferences around the sport.

00:05Last week, we saw the ACC spring meetings, Big Ten spring meetings, although not a ton

00:10of headlines out of the Big Ten conference.

00:13We saw this week in Orlando, Big 12 spring meetings, and of course, a ton of focus on

00:18the SEC spring meetings down in Florida.

00:22And there's been a ton of conversation about the sport and where college football is heading

00:27based on scheduling and based on expansion of the college football playoff.

00:33Of course, a straight seating model for the second and potentially final year of the 12

00:37team era starting this season in 2025, and then more than likely expansion to 14 or what

00:44is most likely 16 teams beginning in 2026.

00:48So how will that look?

00:50Will it be the five automatic bids for the five highest ranked conference champions and 11

00:55at-large spots, or will it be something that has also been highly discussed, automatic

00:59qualifiers for our Power Four conferences, four for each the Big Ten and the SEC, two for

01:06the ACC and Big 12, highest ranking group of five conference champ, and only three at-large

01:12spots.

01:12Well, there's a lot of conversation of what that could mean for each conference, for each

01:18league.

01:18What would the updated scheduling principles be for all of these conferences?

01:23And the SEC has been on this media narrative trying to express how difficult their conference

01:29is, how much of a gauntlet the SEC is, and of course, it always just means more.

01:37Yesterday, Greg Sankey and his conference releasing a packet to all the media members there in attendance

01:42at the annual spring meetings about how difficult the SEC's strength of schedule is in comparison

01:49to the other power leagues.

01:51Of course, that was a big talking point for those that were upset that Alabama was left

01:55out of the initial 12-team college football playoff a season ago.

01:59Well, how can you compare the SEC's strength of schedule with how difficult the slate is

02:04to what Indiana had, or SMU, the final couple of at-large teams that made it into the college

02:10football playoff?

02:12What should be more important, wins and losses on the actual gridiron, or who you are playing

02:18and what that win or loss might be based on the strength of opponent?

02:23For me, this gets very, very frustrating, because let's look at the reality of college football.

02:29Not every power conference or any of the nine FBS leagues have the same scheduling philosophy,

02:36format, or model in place.

02:38For instance, the Big Ten plays nine conference games, the SEC only plays eight.

02:45And when you look at strength of schedule, because we have these regional disparities,

02:50this is not the National Football League with 32 organizations that has a balanced schedule

02:56each and every year for the most part, based on the same annual scheduling principles.

03:01Every year is different.

03:02For each of these college programs and member institutions of these conferences,

03:06there is never going to be scheduling balance around our power conferences or around the

03:14nation.

03:14It is not going to happen.

03:16That is the reality of the situation.

03:18So to compare like to like is a force.

03:21You cannot realistically do so.

03:24And when you have predictive metrics, which is what a strength of schedule number is,

03:29it takes into account what is expected out of that team.

03:33For instance, when we look at the SB plus ratings on ESPN from Bill Connolly right now,

03:39following spring practice of the top 25 teams based on those predictive metrics, 12 hail from

03:45the SEC.

03:46Of course, the strength of this conference is going to be highlighted.

03:50But when you have 12 teams ranking in the top 25 before a single snap is underway of the

03:562025 season, unless they really falter based on that preseason expectation, those numbers

04:03don't necessarily move.

04:04So the strength of schedule for the SEC is baked into preseason expectation and thus can

04:11be continued throughout the entirety of the season.

04:14It is why results matter.

04:16It is why there is always going to be a difference in terms of scheduling balance.

04:21And that's why the wins and losses must be under consideration.

04:25We'll continue to have those conversations throughout 2025 in college football and, of course,

04:31beyond.

04:31But let's make sure the results on the football field matter in these conversations as well.

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