00:00Welcome back to Newswire here on Sports Grid. I'm Craig Mish, joined by Kyle Bond of Sporting News,
00:05break down the latest in the world of soccer. Plenty to get to here, including the latest in the Champions League.
00:12And by the way, Saturday, I think Kyle is probably the biggest soccer week of the season.
00:16I mean, it's incredible to think that right now in this basic, you know, situation here,
00:22you have, you know, arguably the biggest match of the year.
00:25Really, honestly, with PSG never having won a title, I think everything could change based on the outcome here.
00:32So what do you make of sort of this big week?
00:35Yeah, it's going to be a really big lead up to the biggest game of the season.
00:41You know, the Champions League final is the Super Bowl for soccer fans.
00:45It's the big game of every year. And there's a lot riding on this game.
00:50I mean, there's always a lot riding on this game, right?
00:51You've always got storylines in one direction or the other.
00:54But for these two clubs, it really is a huge deal, especially for PSG, like you mentioned.
01:00This is a club that since being purchased by Qatari ownership a number of years ago,
01:08they have sold their souls, really, for a Champions League final.
01:13And it hasn't worked out yet.
01:15They went in big for Lionel Messi, for Neymar, for Kylian Mbappe.
01:19That trio never was able to win a Champions League title.
01:22They made a final, but lost a few years ago.
01:26And then the team, they dismantled it.
01:28They completely changed their approach.
01:30They said, all right, we're not going to go for superstars.
01:33We're going to go for players that actually fit together in a roster.
01:38And they've completely overhauled their roster.
01:40And here they are back in the final and now favorites to win this final against an Inter Milan team that was here two years ago, fell short as well.
01:49So both of these teams have lost Champions League finals in the not-so-distant past.
01:55And they're both looking for redemption in different ways.
01:59For Inter Milan, Simone Inzaghi has been one of the most underrated coaches in all of Europe for the last five years.
02:06And, you know, when he lost to Pep Guardiola, now he has a chance to turn that around.
02:11So there is really a ton riding on this game for both teams.
02:14I agree.
02:15All right.
02:15So let's take a look at the odds here.
02:16By the way, this is Saturday, 3 p.m.
02:18Eastern, PSG at home, plus 120, a tie also in play at plus 220 on the FanDuel Sportsbook, and Inter on the road, plus 240.
02:26So certainly it looks as though PSG is the favorite, but this could change extremely quickly based on how the match plays out in the first.
02:35So what do you think is the narrative here?
02:38How does PSG finally take home a title?
02:42Yeah.
02:42So PSG come into this game as the second-best attacking team in the world behind Barcelona, who lost to Inter Milan.
02:48In the semifinals.
02:49Ousmane Dembele is a Ballon d'Or candidate.
02:52In my mind, it's a two-horse race between Dembele and Rafinha of Barcelona.
02:57To me, Dembele will win the Ballon d'Or if he scores or contributes to a goal or plays really well in this Champions League final.
03:03Otherwise, Rafinha should be the winner.
03:05But Inter Milan were the best defensive team in Europe this season, and then they went on to beat Barcelona at their own game, a 7-6 aggregate win in the semifinals.
03:17So they proved they can win with defense and with offense.
03:22I know PSG will be so hungry for a first European title, but I really like the value on Inter here.
03:29You can get them, as you mentioned, at plus 240, plus 140 to win the title outright.
03:35That plus 240 is the money line win on the 90 minutes.
03:38I think PSG are deserving of being favorites, but I would only say by a hair.
03:42The market is severely undervaluing Inter in this game.
03:46If they can beat Barcelona, who, in a simplistic way, are a slightly better version of PSG, then they can absolutely beat PSG.
03:56So I really like the value on Inter here.
03:59All right, fair enough.
04:00Now, I know there's some other plays within the market that you like.
04:03Very specifically, I don't hear this one very often, Kyle, from you, the yellow card markets.
04:07Tell me more about this one.
04:08Yeah, so in these big games, in these games with a ton riding on it, you think about a World Cup final, a Champions League final, even the domestic cup finals, like an FA Cup final or a Copa del Rey final, things like that.
04:25With so much riding on 90 minutes, there's a lot of emotion, there's a lot of physicality and adrenaline, things like that.
04:34And so you get hard fouling, you get persistent fouling, things like that.
04:39And so, to me, the yellow card numbers here are really, really valuable.
04:44You can get Inter, who, oftentimes the underdog, who will be defending a lot, PSG, you're expected to have a lot of the ball, will commit fouls, will pick up yellow cards, just trying to keep a lid on the game.
04:59You can get Inter over two and a half yellow cards at plus 170.
05:03That's an incredible number for a final like this.
05:06I'm even going to push that further and go over three and a half cards at plus 550.
05:11To me, that's an insane value.
05:15They have the second most yellow cards of any team in the Champions League this season, and they had the fourth lowest yellow cards per foul, meaning they're committing card-worthy fouls at a higher rate compared to other teams.
05:29And then you can look at individual players to be booked, one on either side.
05:32I really like Denzel Dumfries, the wingback for Inter Milan.
05:36You can get him at plus three to pick up a yellow card.
05:39He has a tough matchup against Fecha Karazcalia, who is a foul machine.
05:44And João Neves of PSG, a midfielder.
05:47You can get him at plus 600 to be booked.
05:49He only has two yellow cards in the Champions League this year, but he has the most fouls of any Champions League player.
05:55So, I love that.
05:57And then you can look at saves for both teams.
06:01The Inter goalkeeper, Jan Sommer, was unbelievable.
06:04He made 19 saves in the two semifinal legs against Barcelona.
06:10And then Gianluigi Donnarumma, the PSG goalkeeper, held Arsenal to just one goal while saving 3.86 XGOT worth of shots.
06:23So, he was amazing as well.
06:25You can get both of their overs at really good value.
06:29Final thing, Kyle, before we go.
06:31Your best bet in the final on Saturday.
06:35I'm staying away from the money line.
06:37Too many things can happen.
06:38I'm even staying away from the total because finals have traditionally gone under.
06:43I do expect this to go under, but I don't love the value for two teams that can have chaos.
06:48I love the second half to have the most goals at about even money.
06:52When you go through the last nine Champions League finals, of the 19 goals scored, five of them were in the first half.
07:00I love the second half to be the most goals.
07:02Teams keep a lid on it in the first half and then blow it out in the second half.
07:07Kyle, enjoy the games, including I know a big game today, 3 o'clock Eastern.
07:11We're out of time, though.
07:12We'll check you out over at Sporting News for the latest on that.
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