IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon rainfall at 106% of the long-period average for June–September 2025, raising hopes for agriculture, reports Surabhi Gupta.
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00:00hello viewers IMD has predicted the monsoon season that is from June to
00:07September there is above rainfall than normal we have dr. M Ravi Chandran
00:12secretary from Ministry of Earth Sciences I want to ask like from last
00:16year if we compare this monsoon season we are we can see a lot of states have
00:22this pre monsoon activity and above rainfall activity what is your take so
00:26the pre monsoon activities in the northern side is mainly because of the
00:30western disturbance the western disturbance is bringing more moisture
00:33and there is a thunderstorm always comes whenever you have more moisture and more
00:38heat if it comes that thunderstorm comes so that is a favorable condition this
00:42year both moisture and heat that is why it is a thing in the south in other in
00:48other way it is a because of various other factors cross equatorial flow low
00:53pressure area and then there is a monsoon sorry there is a maiden Julian
00:59oscillation we call that all these factors monsoon factors are favorable that's
01:03why in southern ocean it has come faster the monsoon so what causes the expected
01:10like above near above rainfall in south and central and like below rainfall this
01:16activity in north no it is in south and central India it will be above normal roughly more
01:24than one aspect person whereas in north west it will be more or less normal and in
01:30north east it will be less not me so it is basically the it we cannot say what is
01:34the reason for it but that is what the model it can numerical model provides the data
01:39what is the predictability sir what impact will this pre rainfall in of this monsoon will have
01:47on rain fed agriculture areas like on farm of course it is very good for some of the places
01:53especially south India they can sow early and they can have a better agriculture productivity and of
02:01course other places it depends on the how with the monsoon progress we can tell but as of now it is
02:06always good to know when south it has come early any advisory you want to give through our channel
02:12to people like for the health risk and basically even though we are telling above normal rainfall
02:19and other thing but we are going to expect more and more extreme rainfall in many places so we have
02:25to be careful about that flooding and other things we need to be careful mitigate how to mitigate and how
02:31to escape from that we have to take care in Odia Maharashtra we have seen like pre-monsoon has came
02:37and these activity what about Delhi like in Maharashtra it is a pre-monsoon activity only that is what
02:43thunderstorm hail storm all these things that's what more and more moisture more heat means it will go up
02:48to 15 kilometer height cloud that is why hails for forms and other things so these are all pre-monsoon
02:54activity the north in south it is a monsoon activity now we are joined by Dr. M. Mohapatra sir
03:01my first question to you would be like IMD has predicted we'll having normal from above the
03:07rainfall from the normal monsoon behavior why is what is the reason of having below normal rainfall in
03:16northeast region in south and central we have like above thank you we are expecting a more normal
03:23rainfall for the country as a whole during the monsoon season 2025 that means it is a good
03:29monsoon year we will have good rainfall activity if you look at the climatology of rainfall in any
03:36above normal rainfall year central India south India usually gets good rainfall activity northeast
03:45India gets less rainfall as typically it is being predicted that this year it will be above normal
03:52year so northeast India will expect less than normal rainfall year in an above normal year many low
04:01pressure systems develop over the northwest and west central India and they move west northwest towards
04:07giving good rainfall activity over central India and south peninsula India and because of this low
04:13pressure systems the rainfall decreases over northeast India if we talk about the financial capital of India
04:20Mumbai we see the monsoon regularly in earlier years we see the in the first or second week of like June we
04:28see the monsoon but now only the Mumbai is bathing with the floods like right now what is your take on
04:33that you are right because the monsoon has arrived over Mumbai 16 days before its normal date
04:39and as and when monsoon advances along the west coast you will find that it leads to heavy to very
04:44heavy rainfall activity and this are also it has happened but in addition to that there was a depression
04:51at first it became a low pressure area on 23rd it moved across Maharashtra coast near Ratnagiri it hit the
04:57coast and whenever a low pressure area develops during the onset phase of monsoon over arabian sea it strengthens
05:04the monsoon current that means the monsoonal winds because of the western guard this westerly
05:10monsoon wind collides with the western guards and hence there will be orographic afflicting of this
05:17moist air which leads to copious amount of rainfall activity and that has happened this year after
05:24Maharashtra Odisha and other Kerala states we have also seen these free monsoon activities what is
05:30your prediction for this Delhi Chandigarh Haryana area yeah so this year in the month of May there has been
05:38uh very frequent western disturbances passing over northwest India and when a western distance passes
05:45in the month of May it leads to thunderstorm activity associated with lightning rainfall sometimes hell
05:52storms squally winds or gusty winds sometimes the wind speed can exceed 100 kilometers per hour and that
05:57has happened and this year for the next few weeks or next few days also this type of activity will continue
06:05we're expecting another western disturbance to move across northwest india after three days
06:10so therefore we can again expect thunderstorm activity in different parts of northwest india
06:15so we have talked about western disturbances and wind speed also will this neutral uh
06:21enso effect and this negative iod also will change the monsoon behavior this year as for prediction of imd
06:31the leno southern oscillation condition is neutral at present and it will continue to be neutral
06:39till end of monsoon season so therefore there is no adverse impact on the monsoon rainfall negative iod
06:46or indian ocean dipole condition being predicted is not so much severe it is marginally negative so
06:51therefore it may not have much adverse impact further if you compare the leno southern oscillation and indian
06:58ocean dipole leno southern oscillation has a higher role than the indian ocean and dipole in the seasonal
07:04rainfall activity the third point is that the himalayan snow cover has been less this year compared to the
07:12normal which is a good um factor for higher rainfall activity over the country so my last question to you
07:21would be like how what impact will be this above rainfall have on rain fed agriculture areas like
07:28for the farmers you were telling it will be it is a good news yeah central india especially extending
07:34from gujarat rajasthan and maharashtar to whom odisha and adjanic areas of west bengal and andhra pradesh
07:41this area uh is less irrigated comparatively and uh here agriculture depends upon the rainfall
07:48the rainfall area is more in the central part we call it as monsoon core zone and we also gave a
07:54special forecast today for the monsoon core zone as per the forecast issued today rainfall is expected
07:59to be above normal over the monsoon core zone so therefore it is a good news for the farmers in this
08:04region but at the same time we should remember that we have got many river and systems in this
08:09there are many cities and towns so due to the expected higher rainfall activity there could be the
08:15severe weather events like the localized flooding or river and flooding urban flooding etc that we should
08:23take care of thank you so much for talking to us this is surbi reporting with cameraman sandeep singh e tv bharat