Braves vs. Red Sox: Schwellenbach vs. Bello Pitching Analysis

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00:00Let's head out. 1.35 p.m. Keep it in Boston. That's Atlanta and Boston. It's Schwellenbach

00:04versus Bayo. This line opened up overnight. Round of minus 1.30 price as a favorite to

00:08the road team. Atlanta Braves got shocked yesterday, blowing that big lead. That's

00:12now down a little bit. 1.25s, 1.30s in the marketplace. In eight and a half, though,

00:16Tom, spiking to nine and a half in most of the marketplaces. Schwellenbach and Bayo

00:21today. What are we looking at? We're looking at about 70-degree temperature, about 16

00:27mile per hour winds blowing out to right, right center. We got some juice here when

00:31it comes to offense. Brian Bayo got a late start to the season. His surface level

00:36metrics look good when we're looking at Bayo. 2-3-3 ERA. You're like, okay, not too

00:41bad. A 4-65 XFIP. That is a massive, massive differential. When we're looking

00:46at a 14.8% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate, the league average strikeout rate

00:52this year is at 22%, and the league average walk rate is at 8.9%, just shy of

00:57nine. So he is significantly lower when it comes to strikeout rate. He's higher

01:01when it comes to walk rate, but he hasn't been burned by that yet. When we're going

01:05up against an offense like the Braves, which is certainly much better now compared to

01:08where it was the beginning of the season with wind blowing out, I think we're looking

01:12at Braves and we're looking at Braves offense. I will specifically talk about the

01:14Braves scoring runs a little bit later. On the other side, Schwellenbach, he's been

01:18great. ERA, XFIP, right in line, 3-3-1, 3-2-8 for those two. He's going to strike out

01:23some hitters at a decent rate. He is not going to walk anyone with a 5% walk rate.

01:27And man, a ground ball, medium contact pitcher. I think he'll do okay today, but the weather

01:32and the hitting in that park at Fenway, I think it's just going to be runs overall.