00:00We're going to talk to Dr. Ranjit Rai, and of course Dr. Mahara Mangahas.
00:07Andi tulip po silang dalawa.
00:09At pagpapatuloy natin ang talakayan, napangganda kanina, napakinggan namin eh.
00:14Yung talakayan ninyo, kaninang tatlo, napakaganda, napakarami naming natutunan yan.
00:19Ano to, pang-awakening, pang-gising, yung mga inyong tinalakay kanina.
00:25Pero siguro maganda nga, ano, Professor Rai.
00:28Ngayon naman, yung pagpapakita ng mga voters naman ang ating pag-usapan, what does it tell us?
00:35Itong nangyaring, gulat ba? Hindi naman gulat, pero parang nagising tayong lahat sa choices.
00:45May nababanggit si Professor Rai na dark horse eh, pero medyo maraming dark horse na pumasok sa top 12.
00:50In our last report, we did mention sa Okta, it's too dynamic for us to make a final call.
00:57And surveys do change.
00:59And that we were saying as early as April that there will be a significant number of possibilities that could happen.
01:07And that's exactly what happened.
01:09And, you know, personally, I was surprised by the results.
01:14I knew Bam was going to win.
01:16But I didn't know that he was going to win this big.
01:18Oh, yun din.
01:19Pero kasi ho, nasa number 12 naman siya sa amin.
01:21At 12 to 15 in your survey.
01:23Ang mga surveys kasi parang within striking distance lang siya eh, pwede pa sa malaglag.
01:27Amin sa straight 12 siya.
01:28Straight 12.
01:29Straight 12.
01:29So he wasn't in the range.
01:31Not just in the range, but, you know, he was...
01:33So in the range, he was actually much lower.
01:35And then, of course, we were kind of surprised by the result of Senator Pangilinan.
01:42We did say in the media that Congressman Marcoleta, at least in our last survey, had a very good chance.
01:49Because he was the only candidate in our survey that went up 9 percentage points.
01:54Everyone else went down.
01:55But, you know, so...
01:58Pero kung baga, what could have happened?
02:01A change of heart with the voters?
02:03Ano, ano, meron ba silang pinakita in the last two minutes before the election?
02:08Yeah, but the last two minutes, actually, almost a month.
02:10That's a long time, actually, for surveys.
02:13And for OCTA, of course, I'll let Professor Marr discuss because they have a more recent survey.
02:18We ended our survey in April.
02:21So that was it.
02:22So we had three weeks of nothing, really.
02:25But we were looking at the other surveys, and we were seeing the changes.
02:28We're telling candidates who were asking for information, specifically, you know, these people who are now in the top.
02:35But, yeah, the numbers are changing.
02:37And some of the survey leaders during our... were really going down.
02:41So the trend was...
02:43Yeah.
02:43And so, at some level, surveys remain relevant and correct as far as the candidates are concerned.
02:49Now, as far as people's expectations, you know, we're not a crystal ball at the moment yet.
02:54But, you know, as we go forward and as we improve, lana sa OCTA, we will get things, you know, more accurately.
03:03But this was a dynamic election.
03:06Some people were saying wild.
03:08Wild yung election results, no?
03:11And maybe that's kind of... maybe there's some truth to that.
03:15You know, I cannot talaga.
03:16Pero hindi pa ho tapos ang butuhan.
03:17Yes.
03:18At tayo ho ay may partial, unofficial pa.
03:20So, hintay natin matapos.
03:22But sabi ka nga...
03:23We can ask Guru, Mr. Mangahas, no?
03:25Because pag nakikita natin yung survey, tapos i...
03:29Kakahambing natin dito sa naging actual results, no?
03:33Parang ang laki ng gain, no?
03:36Ni na Bam, tsaka si Kiko.
03:38On the contrary, pinakamalaking heartbreak naman yung kay Ben Tulfo.
03:42He dropped by what?
03:43How many points?
03:44From fourth to fifth place, he became 13th place.
03:48What a heartbreak.
03:49So, we learn as we go along.
03:52Kung anong magyayaris dun sa katapusan.
03:56And if we get the majority, okay.
04:01That's already success.
04:03But it's not as successful as we were before.
04:07So, hintayin natin and then let's see.
04:11And then let's survey, let's ask the right questions in our next round.
04:17Because we're in the field, no?
04:20Politics or no politics, we're in the field four times a year.
04:23And we can ask anything we like.
04:25So, we will ask again, you know, what, you know, when did you make your decision?
04:30And we'll see if we can ask why.
04:33Why is the hardest question to ask?
04:35Na-factor in ba yung mga endorsements like the INC and then, you know, other endorsements?
04:41The INC is not a big group.
04:45The INC is, you know, I think it's smaller than the Muslim group.
04:49And we never figured out the Muslim group.
04:52Kapit yung mga endorsements ng Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia kay BAP.
04:56Was that factored in as well?
04:58I mean, you got a lot of endorsements.
05:00The question about the vote is already been met after everything happens.
05:08We won't know about factor X unless we have a question about factor X.
05:14And we can't think of all of those.
05:16We can think of them later.
05:18But before the fact, we don't prepare that.
05:22Especially, we don't because we're not, you know, we don't have a political agenda.
05:28Even the agenda of our sponsor, we have a sponsor.
05:32Our sponsor is Strat-Based Consulting.
05:35Even they, you know, their items are not maybe the items that I would ask.
05:39But they're the ones, you know, who commissioned that.
05:43So, we have to make do with that.
05:45Okay.
05:45Go ahead.
05:48Yes.
05:48Siguro po, ano, Dr. Mangahas, no?
05:51Yes, ma'am.
05:51Sabi ko ni Nakita ko, tama ba ito?
05:5398.64% na tayo?
05:58Saan?
05:58Sa Comelec, yes.
05:59Huh?
06:00Sa Comelec?
06:00Yung report ni Joseph kalina.
06:02Yes, parang I saw the same number.
06:03Gano'n na kalaki?
06:04Tapos na ba?
06:05Gano'n na kalaki?
06:06At 98.62%?
06:07I think the returns that have been submitted, no?
06:09But I don't know.
06:10Submitted returns.
06:11It have been counted.
06:12Yeah.
06:12Pero hindi pa-canvas.
06:13Hindi pa-canvas.
06:14Oh, yes.
06:15Okay.
06:15The actual canvassing is only going to start really today.
06:19Remember, what we're seeing are just the reports coming to media.
06:22But the actual canvassing is done by Comelec with the election returns.
06:26And what they're saying is that the actual physical election returns are only coming in.
06:31But usually, Prof, kailan mo pwede nang sabihin it's in the bag?
06:35When the Comelec declares that it's in the bag, you know, at least based on our laws, no?
06:42But definitely, you know, what you have come out from the transparency servers should mirror what comes out in the election.
06:51At the rate we are going, at the rate, you know, they are canvassing, alam nyo, yan ang iniintay ng lahat, ah?
06:58Yung office yan.
07:00Kusiyo nanalo talaga.
07:02We wait for the official announcement from Comelec.
Comments