00:00Dr. Mahan Mangahas, Chair Emeritus at Social Weather Stations o SWS
00:04at Prof. Ranjit Rai.
00:07Gusto ko lang itanong sa inyo yung performance po ni Bam Aquino.
00:12Doon sa mga survey, hindi siya nasa top 5, no?
00:17Tapos ito na yung election ng number 2 pa.
00:21So talaga hubang unpredictable talaga itong ating mga botante
00:25sa tingin nyo sa SWS,
00:27Dr. Mangahas?
00:31Ako, ang attitude ko, we just learn as we go along.
00:34So now we know how much things can change in the last minute.
00:40Ganun lang.
00:41I'm an economist. I'm not a political scientist.
00:45But the importance of politics is that it validates surveys
00:49and therefore you can use surveys for other topics like economics
00:54because it's with the politics that you can have a good way of seeing
00:59that the sample approximates the population.
01:03Actually, you mentioned that you do the surveys not just to see which candidates are leading.
01:07Isa sa mga sinurvee nyo, di ba Dr. Mangahas,
01:10kung ano yung mga isyong malapit sa mga Pilipino leading up to the elections.
01:14So, and yung mga top answer, food security, tama po ba? Agriculture?
01:19Well, those are other things.
01:21But ako, we are, we are, okay, what are we for?
01:24We are for quality of life and well-being of the Pilipinos.
01:28We have done poverty and hunger more than a hundred times.
01:34And we don't stop and it's going to continue.
01:38You see?
01:39And we don't need sponsors for that anymore.
01:41I mean, we are able already to survive.
01:44So, the value of the politics is the continuing validation
01:48that what we're doing is valid for the other things.
01:52For the economics in particular, for the well-being of the people.
01:57Pero yung naging mga resulta na yung sinabi nga ng mga Pilipino,
02:01na yung mga, gaya ng sinabi ni Igan,
02:03yung mga problemong malapit sa Sigmura,
02:04yun yung top concern sila.
02:06Do you see na parang tugma yun doon sa naging resulta
02:09ng ating partial unofficial tally?
02:12Well, ang inflation ay napaka-importante.
02:15Always, always been, okay?
02:17So, yung mga gut issues.
02:19So, talagang kung sino makakapangako, you know,
02:23na hindi tataas ang mga presyong masyado,
02:27malamang yun.
02:29But of course, they all do that.
02:30Okay.
02:31Anyway.
02:32Professor, yun lang, dugtong ko lang,
02:34dun sa BAM Aquino result.
02:37Kasi pag tinignan mo yung mga kandidato,
02:40parang mix eh.
02:40Akala natin it's an emotional election
02:42between Duterte and the Marcos, di ba?
02:45Kasi parang iba tong BAM eh.
02:46Parang siya yun sa pink na mga sector eh.
02:51So, anong nakita niyong factor?
02:53Ba't biglang, parang taas siya?
02:56Sa aming pag-aaral,
02:58BAM got the votes
02:59where he was registering votes
03:02in our survey.
03:04So, that would be
03:05Balans Luzon
03:06and the National Capital Region.
03:08Okay.
03:08When you look at the...
03:10Well, I saw this from another TV station.
03:12Kasi ang problem namin ngayon,
03:13hindi pa natin nakuha yung data eh.
03:15Apo, apo.
03:15Once we get the data,
03:16social scientists, we can analyze.
03:17But what the little data we have
03:19ay ang laki ho
03:21ng pinanalo niya sa Balans Luzon
03:22at saka sa National Capital Region.
03:24Sa Lucena Lingayen,
03:26just think about this ah.
03:27Nasa number 13 siya sa survey namin.
03:30Pero sa Balans Luzon,
03:31in the final count,
03:32at least 80%,
03:32not final,
03:33but in the latest count,
03:36he's number one in Balans Luzon.
03:37Number one.
03:38Okay?
03:39He was never that in the survey.
03:41But he was, you know,
03:41number 12 sa amin,
03:43so he was there.
03:44In National Capital Region,
03:45number one.
03:46Bongo is number two.
03:47Okay.
03:48So where he was getting,
03:50we was getting survey numbers
03:52in our survey,
03:53he optimized, maximized.
03:55And this is probably,
03:56ano to eh,
03:57produkto to ng kilusan.
03:59Si Pamakino,
04:00hindi lang kandidato,
04:00mukhang may kilusan.
04:01At buhay pa yung kilusan na yun.
04:04And last minute,
04:06nag-organize siya.
04:07So kailangan natin ng konti pang datos
04:09para masabi.
04:10Kasi yun ay interpretation ko lang.
04:12Pero ako,
04:13I'm sure when we look at the data,
04:15even the age groupings,
04:17I mean,
04:18he was trending among millennials,
04:20Gen Zs.
04:21That was what we were seeing in our survey.
04:23But he was number 12 in our survey.
04:25Three weeks before the elections,
04:28he peaked,
04:28alam yun,
04:29and that movement came,
04:31gave the votes,
04:32and not just for him,
04:33for Kiko.
04:34So you have to look at this survey
04:35from a political science perspective.
04:38There are different images.
04:39One is the opposition really won here.
04:41Opposition Duterte,
04:42Opposition Pink.
04:45And that movement,
04:46the Pink movement,
04:47is alive.
04:47Obviously,
04:48they're silent,
04:49but they've organized very well.
04:51In Central Visayas,
04:54which is a stronghold of the Dutertes,
04:56Pamakino was in the top five.
04:58He still got votes in Mindanao.
05:00Of course,
05:00he was in the lower rung.
05:01But by and large,
05:03he ran a very good campaign,
05:05and that campaign resonated
05:06with a broad base of supporters.
05:08Actually,
05:09sa Ilocos Norte,
05:10kanina hindi natin na-emphasize
05:12na si Pamakino ay mataas din.
05:16Ilocos Norte to,
05:17hindi naman number two,
05:18pero mataas.
05:19Nakapasok.
05:19Mataas dun sa listahan
05:22na hindi mo aasahan
05:23bilang baluarte ito ng makamakos.
05:25Pero dun sa Vote Rich,
05:26Calabarzo,
05:27siyang nag-number one.
05:30Talo pa niya sila
05:31Senator Bong Revilla,
05:34who was supposed to do very well
05:36in those areas.
05:37So that's just what we got
05:38from the initial results,
05:4080 percent,
05:41that were 70 percent at the time
05:43was presented to us
05:44last night by Comolec.
05:45Of course,
05:46nag-tumigil na yan.
05:47Once we get the full data,
05:48siguro we can get a better analysis of things.
05:50Actually,
05:50even former Senator Kiko Pangilinan,
05:52nababanggit niya yun,
05:54na dun sa huling araw
05:57ng kampanya,
05:57sinabi niya,
05:58kumpiyansa sila,
05:59may kumpiyansa sila,
06:00very hopeful,
06:01very optimistic,
06:02kasi nakuha niya yung endorsement
06:03on that day of places like Cebu,
06:06nakabilang dun sa mga vote-rich areas.
06:09And we saw how it really did
06:11help his standing
06:13in this particular case.
06:14But,
06:15Professor Rai,
06:16moving forward,
06:18kasi nga,
06:19parang,
06:19dahil nagulat yung mga tao
06:21dun sa naging resulta
06:22ng survey
06:23compared to yung actual
06:24partial unofficial results.
06:26Si Dr. Mangahas,
06:27nabanggit niya,
06:27baka dapat mga idagdag na tanong
06:29sa mga survey.
06:30Kayo po,
06:30ano bang tinitignan yung
06:32possible changes
06:34to the way surveys are conducted?
06:35Not to say na
06:36kailangan baguhin
06:37or kailangan may baguhin.
06:39Tama si Professor Mangahas,
06:40Dr. Mangahas,
06:41na kailangan talagang pag-isipan.
06:43Okay,
06:43there are certain outcomes
06:45of the survey
06:45over the last few cycles
06:47na hindi talaga
06:49kaya explain ang survey
06:50quantitative lang.
06:52Kailangan may qualitative,
06:53we need to do more FGDs.
06:55Sa Okta,
06:55we need to get the resources
06:57to run surveys
06:58close to the election.
06:59We don't have those resources.
07:01The last survey we had
07:02was only 1,200.
07:04Very, very small sample size
07:06but still very quite accurate
07:07and we're very proud of the team
07:09and what came out.
07:11But,
07:11importante,
07:12gusto kong i-emphasize,
07:13hindi na ito bobotante.
07:14Hindi totoo na bobotante
07:15mga Filipino voters.
07:17Just look at the result.
07:19That's not too small.
07:20I know it's okay.
07:24But really are more rounds.
07:26Yeah, more rounds.
07:27That's what usually are.
07:28If we could afford it,
07:29more rounds.
07:30Kasi I think we could have,
07:31all the survey firms
07:32could have gotten it right
07:33if they had more rounds.
07:34Honestly.
07:35But,
07:36the election outcomes,
07:37we're seeing dynamic.
07:39And I just want to emphasize,
07:40yung mga botante natin,
07:41Lana,
07:42I think,
07:42I don't have the data,
07:44but I think a lot of youth vote
07:45came out.
07:46I was talking to my students.
07:47I have a class at 11.30 mamaya.
07:49They were telling me earlier
07:50that they all voted.
07:51For the first time,
07:52they got so
07:53incensed by the
07:54initial survey results
07:56that they wanted to go out and vote.
07:58Kanina pa natin
07:59nababanggit yung mga
07:59vote treats,
08:00pero yung
08:02religious votes.
08:04Kasi isa rin sa surprisingly
08:06na nagresulta rito
08:08ay si
08:09dating congressman
08:10Marcoleta.
08:12Sa mga survey,
08:13nasa tail end siya eh.
08:14Pero makita nyo
08:15standing niya ngayon,
08:16nasa
08:16top 10 kahit pa pano.
08:18So,
08:19malaking factor pa rin
08:20huw ba ngayon
08:20yung religious votes?
08:21Si Professor Makaas.
08:23From experience,
08:24yung Iglesia ni Cristo,
08:25talagang solid yun.
08:26Okay.
08:28By solid,
08:28I mean 80%.
08:30Okay.
08:30Not 100,
08:31not 80%.
08:32My feeling
08:35always has been doon,
08:36but
08:36kukunti lang sila.
08:38Mga 5% lang
08:39ang mga Iglesia ni Cristo voters.
08:42Di ba?
08:42So,
08:43I haven't seen yet
08:45that that could change
08:46the standing so much.
08:47Let's see.
08:48Anyway,
08:49hindi pwedeng Iglesia lang.
08:52Sana,
08:53yung mga Catholics,
08:54but they don't interfere.
08:56Hindi nage-endorse.
08:57Hindi nage-endorse.
08:58I-de-iterate lang natin
09:00na number one si BAM
09:01sa limang probinsya
09:02ng Region 4A,
09:03which is the vote-richest province
09:06or the most vote-rich province.
09:08And number six
09:09in Cebu province,
09:10which is the most vote-rich
09:12naman na probinsya.
09:14How about Mindanao?
09:15Ano siya?
09:15Sa Mindanao,
09:16wala pa po tayong data.
09:17Pero those are the areas
09:19kung saan talagang
09:20maraming mga butante.
09:21Yeah.
09:21All right.
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