00:00Balik ka naman po natin si Professor Aris Arugay,
00:04ang Chairperson ng Political Science Department ng University of the Philippines, Diliman.
00:09Kanina napag-usapan natin, Prof, maraming salamat, ano?
00:13Kanina napag-usapan natin yung significance itong 2025 midterm elections.
00:18So, sa current political climate at may mga events din tayong nasaksihan itong nakaraang mga buwan,
00:25talagang mainit itong eleksyon na ito at mayroon talagang matinding labanan, tunggalian,
00:32even within yung tinatawag nating uniteam noong nakaraan.
00:35So, ano po yung nakikita nyo na significance ng eleksyon na ito?
00:39Right. Normally kasi yung midterm elections, referendum yan informally sa administrasyon.
00:48Historically, in fact, nung last midterm elections ng 2019,
00:52walang opposition candidate for the Senate yung nanalo.
00:55So, it seems like an overwhelming approval of the Duterte administration.
01:01Itong context na ito, siguro referendum siya, pero hindi eh.
01:06It's also a proxy battle, parang tunggalian nga nung nabuwag na unity.
01:13And therefore, sa tingin ko yung election na ito,
01:16we'll see kaninong puwersa ba yung mas magiging malakas.
01:20At makikita natin yan sa Senate elections.
01:24Ngunit, may dalawang developments na nabo,
01:28yung looming impeachment trial ni Vice President Sara Duterte,
01:31at yung ICC arrest ni Pangulong Rodrigo Duterte.
01:34Nakita natin yung mga numbers ng mga kandidato nag-iba after yung ICC arrest.
01:39Kaya makikita natin, I think, kung ano man yung magiging resulta sa Senado,
01:43kung kanino ba yung pulso ng bayan nakatoon,
01:48tungkol doon ito sa dalawang pinakamalaking dinastiya sa Pilipinas.
01:52So, lumilitaw na yung decision ng votante,
01:55bumabasyo sa development ng mga events natin,
02:00kesa dun sa pagsuri nila ng kwalifikasyon ng Senador.
02:05Halimbawa, Professor?
02:07Oo, kasi sa teorya, sa political science,
02:10ang voting is supposed to be a rational act.
02:13Meaning, naninimbang ka, tinitignan mo yung mga kwalifikasyon ng mga kandidato,
02:18tinitignan mo yung track record.
02:20Ngunit, nakita natin itong kampanya na ito,
02:22hindi masyadong maigtingi.
02:24Yung wala nga tayong nakitang debate,
02:26when supposedly, yung mga Senador,
02:28trabaho nila na makipag-debate,
02:30hindi natin masyado nakita yun.
02:32Very few candidates engaged,
02:33mas gusto nila yung one-on-one.
02:35So, nakita natin na yung election,
02:38less and less about competent ba,
02:40may track record ba,
02:42magiging maayos ba ng Senador.
02:43Ngunit, parang mga avatars
02:46ng mga naglalakihang dinastiya,
02:48yung mga kandidato.
02:49Ayan, Professor, nakikita na po natin ngayon
02:51si Vice President Sara Duterte,
02:54dumating na rin sa voting precinct.
02:57So, tuloy lang yung pagtalakay natin.
03:00This election, midterm,
03:02mas personal at emotional, Professor.
03:06Tama. Oo.
03:07Tinignan natin yan.
03:08Kasi nga, yung mga Pilipino,
03:10sa tingin ko,
03:11yung election is more and more an expression
03:13ng kanilang, anumang emosyon,
03:16yung nararamdaman nila.
03:17Ngunit, hindi lang nila nararamdaman yung personally,
03:20marahil nakaka-relate sila
03:22o na ipaparating ng mga kandidato.
03:24Yung emosyon ng mga kandidato,
03:27tapos medyo,
03:28pag nakaka-relate sila,
03:29nadadala nila yun
03:31sa kanilang desisyon sa pagboto.
03:34Itong eleksyon na ito,
03:35maraming,
03:35yung emosyon ng loyalty,
03:38at betrayal,
03:39pwede natin sabihin.
03:40Professor,
03:41ito nakikita natin.
03:43Si Vice President Sara Duterte,
03:45nandyan siya ngayon sa Davao City
03:46at doon ang kanyang polling precinct.
03:49Ayan,
03:49chinecheck na niya
03:50ang kanyang precinct number
03:52dito sa listahan.
03:55At anytime now,
03:57buboto na itong
03:58ating pangalawang pangulo
04:00dito sa Davao City,
04:02kung saan siya dating namuno
04:03bilang mayor.
04:05Diba?
04:05So,
04:07ito na nga tulad
04:07ng sinasabi niyo ho,
04:09no,
04:09Professor,
04:10yung
04:10looming impeachment crisis
04:13na nakikita natin,
04:15yung senatorial contest
04:18will be sort of like
04:19a referendum,
04:20right?
04:20Oo.
04:21Tsaka kay Sara Duterte,
04:23napaka-importante
04:23nitong senatorial elections na ito.
04:25I think
04:26her own political survival
04:28is at stake.
04:30Dahil alam natin,
04:31yung kalhati ng iboboto
04:33ng mga kababayan natin,
04:34yun ang uupo
04:35bilang Senate impeachment trial.
04:39At kahit two-thirds pa yung kailangan,
04:43more than two-thirds to convict,
04:46at alam natin na
04:47siya mismo nagsabi
04:48na political process
04:49yung impeachment,
04:50kailangan ma-assure na,
04:52for her,
04:53kung interest niya yung pag-uusapan,
04:55na ma-acquit siya
04:56sa impeachment na ito
04:58because
04:58yung likely na
04:59outcome,
05:02hindi lamang yung,
05:03hindi na siya magiging
05:04vice-presidente,
05:05but
05:05yung possible na
05:07perpetual disqualification,
05:09I think yun yung
05:10mas maikting na
05:11kailangan bantayan
05:12kasi
05:13as vice-president,
05:15wala naman talaga siyang
05:15trabaho kundi maging
05:16constitutional successor.
05:18At
05:18ngunit yung perpetual disqualification
05:21kasi alam naman natin
05:23na isa siya sa,
05:24in fact,
05:26sa ngayon,
05:26pinakamalakas na contender
05:28sa
05:282028 presidential elections
05:30ayon sa surveys.
05:31Pero nag-bature da ba
05:32ang votante,
05:33gayong sa paliwanag mo nga,
05:35parang more on
05:35family feud,
05:37yung nakikita nating
05:38batayan
05:40ng kanilang
05:40desisyon?
05:42Igan,
05:43sa buong Asia
05:44tayo,
05:44may pinakamatagal
05:45na karanasan
05:46sa eleksyon.
05:48At
05:48supposedly,
05:49dapat habang
05:50tumatagal tayo
05:51sa ganitong
05:52proseso,
05:53may voting
05:54maturity.
05:55Ngunit
05:56sa
05:56kasawiang palad,
05:58sa mga pag-aaral
05:59natin,
06:00wala pa tayo
06:01doon.
06:01At kung titignan
06:02natin yung
06:03mga binoboto
06:04ng mga tao,
06:05kumpara na lang
06:06natin yung
06:06Senado
06:07noong
06:07dekada 70,
06:09dekada 80,
06:10ibang-iba
06:11yung
06:11kalidad.
06:13At
06:13sa tingin ko
06:14dahil
06:15mismo yung
06:16mga
06:16politiko
06:17natin,
06:19hindi
06:19inaangat
06:20yung standards.
06:21Sa tingin ko
06:22important,
06:23hindi sila
06:24nag-organize
06:24bilang mga
06:25legitimong
06:26at
06:26organisadong
06:27political
06:28parties,
06:29hindi
06:29usapan
06:30yung
06:30plataporma,
06:31hindi
06:31usapan
06:32yung
06:32mga
06:32issues,
06:33kundi
06:33celebrity,
06:35dinastiya,
06:36at
06:36popularidad.
06:39Pero,
06:39Prof,
06:40sorry,
06:41Vicky,
06:42nabanggit
06:43natin na
06:44parang
06:44hindi
06:44nagmamature
06:45yung
06:46ating
06:47electorate,
06:48pero
06:48sa isang
06:50banda,
06:51meron din
06:51naman mga
06:51sumusubok
06:52na
06:52pag-usapan
06:53yung
06:53mga
06:54platforma,
06:55bakit
06:55di sila
06:56nananalo?
06:56Kung
06:57sinasabi
06:58natin
06:58dapat yun
06:59ay isang
07:00superior
07:00way
07:01of running
07:02at sila
07:02ay mas
07:03mainam
07:03na
07:04kandidato
07:04kung
07:04pinag-usapan
07:05nila yung
07:05mga
07:05issues.
07:06Totoo yun,
07:07Atom,
07:07hindi
07:08naman
07:08sa dahil
07:09walang
07:09ibang
07:09mapagpilian.
07:11Merong
07:11mga
07:12nangangahas
07:13na baguhin
07:14yung
07:14kultura
07:15ng
07:15political
07:17competition
07:17sa
07:18Pilipinas.
07:18Ngunit
07:19masyadong
07:20dihado yung
07:21nadedehado
07:22sila
07:22ng sistema.
07:24Alam
07:24natin na
07:25isang
07:26malaking
07:26development,
07:27nagiging
07:28mahal
07:28yung
07:29pagtakbo.
07:30Nakita
07:31natin yung
07:31ibang
07:31spending
07:32in the
07:32billions
07:33of pesos.
07:34Kung
07:34ikaw
07:34ang
07:34dalang
07:35mo lang
07:35kompetensya
07:36at
07:36track record,
07:37how can
07:38you
07:38match
07:38billions
07:39of
07:39pesos
07:40na
07:40binubuhos
07:41ng
07:41isang
07:42politiko
07:42na
07:42ang
07:43isang
07:43senador,
07:43ang
07:43sweldo
07:44lamang
07:44250,000
07:45a month.
07:46Di ba
07:46bawiin?
07:47Kung paano
07:48yun,
07:49donation na
07:49lang yun?
07:50Professor,
07:51marami pa tayong
07:51pag-uusapan.
07:52Gusto ko
07:52pag-uusapan
07:53yung
07:53party list,
07:54kung
07:54naabuso
07:54bang
07:54sistema
07:55nito,
07:55tsaka
07:55yung
07:56survey,
07:57anong
07:58benefit
07:58sa atin
07:59ng mga
07:59survey?
08:00Gusto ko
08:00pag-uusapan
08:01yan,
08:01but in
08:01the
08:01meantime,
08:02tawagin
08:02po
08:02natin
08:02si
08:03Marisol
08:03Abduramaan.
Comments