In a major geopolitical twist, Donald Trump backs the Starmer–Macron ultimatum, escalating tensions across Europe and beyond 🇺🇸🇫🇷🇬🇧.
Moscow stands firm, outright rejecting the pressure and continuing to defy Western sanctions 💥🚫.
Meanwhile, in the UK, Labour MPs are turning on Keir Starmer, exposing growing fractures within the party 🗳️⚠️.
Alexander Mercouris breaks it all down — power, pressure, and political backlash on all fronts 🌍🎙️.
#AlexanderMercouris #TrumpNews #Starmer #Macron #MoscowNews #RussiaSanctions #Geopolitics #UKPolitics #LabourParty #StarmerCrisis #EUPolitics #USForeignPolicy #PoliticalTensions #InternationalNews #BreakingPolitics #SanctionsNews #TrumpBacksUltimatum #GlobalPolitics #WesternPressure #PoliticalShowdown
Moscow stands firm, outright rejecting the pressure and continuing to defy Western sanctions 💥🚫.
Meanwhile, in the UK, Labour MPs are turning on Keir Starmer, exposing growing fractures within the party 🗳️⚠️.
Alexander Mercouris breaks it all down — power, pressure, and political backlash on all fronts 🌍🎙️.
#AlexanderMercouris #TrumpNews #Starmer #Macron #MoscowNews #RussiaSanctions #Geopolitics #UKPolitics #LabourParty #StarmerCrisis #EUPolitics #USForeignPolicy #PoliticalTensions #InternationalNews #BreakingPolitics #SanctionsNews #TrumpBacksUltimatum #GlobalPolitics #WesternPressure #PoliticalShowdown
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00good day today is saturday 10th may 2025 and before i turn again to the ukraine situation
00:00:09which is becoming again more interesting i will touch on the situation between india and pakistan
00:00:18well it's now absolutely clear that my hopes of a few days ago that the situation would be brought
00:00:25um under control um has not been have not been realized the situation on the contrary is seriously
00:00:33escalating and it seems that over the last 24 hours there's been a major there's been a major
00:00:41series of strikes by pakistan um against indian targets including indian cities there's been
00:00:49meetings by government officials in both countries the indian defense minister is speaking of a
00:00:57situation where all-out war between india and pakistan looks inevitable which is i have to say
00:01:05an extremely ominous statement and the secretary of state the u.s secretary of state marco rubio
00:01:13has been busy telephoning and speaking to the foreign ministers of both india and pakistan
00:01:20presumably trying to find some means to bring the situation under control there is a huge amount of
00:01:28false information circulating um i'm not going to repeat it not even with the purpose of debunking it
00:01:38i think that doing so at the present time might actually lend credence to some of the more way
00:01:46out claims that i have seen i'll just mention one briefly there was claims um yesterday that um
00:01:56pakistani cyber attacks had inflicted colossal damage on um india's um electric power system
00:02:07uh those reports were not confirmed by any independent sources from within india itself
00:02:15and the indian authorities have said that they are untrue and they clearly were untrue but there's been
00:02:21many other claims um and i'm not going to say waste time or take up time going through them all and saying
00:02:29that these are true and these are not and all of those things i would add that to those who follow the
00:02:39news or at least some of the news um there is a tendency i've noticed in the western media to for some
00:02:51reason that i don't fully understand to work more with pakistani claims than with indian ones all i
00:02:59would say is that reading the media in both countries it seems to me that both countries make
00:03:07essentially the same claims against each other both claim to have shot down large numbers of fighter jets
00:03:14operated by the other side both sides claim to inflicted immense amounts of damage each side is
00:03:25saying negative things about the quality of the weapons that the other side has and i find it impossible
00:03:34myself to try to decipher and understand and say exactly what is going on the only thing i think one
00:03:44can say is that we are definitely now in a pattern of further escalation i don't know how far this will go
00:03:52i don't know where uh this is intended to end um for the moment it doesn't seem as if either side is engaging
00:04:05in a ground offensive against the other but the indian authorities this morning were talking about
00:04:12concentrations of pakistani troops arriving in the border areas and that might change anyway
00:04:23i have been getting some rather interesting information about the various perspectives of the great powers
00:04:32to the war and inevitably most of the information i'm getting is from russian sources because over the
00:04:39last three years i've well basically been working with those sources and the russian view appears to be
00:04:48that um pakistani pakistan at least the pakistani military are profoundly aligned with the united states
00:04:58and that at least some agencies of the united states government are deeply involved assisting pakistan
00:05:07in this conflict in this conflict i've been reading about u.s bases secret bases in pakistan i've been
00:05:15reading about reports about how pakistan has been involved in the past in u.s rendition programs that's
00:05:23situations where the united states quietly takes people captive around the world and they end up in well
00:05:34essentially prisons um where they are no longer heard or seen and become unaccountable um certainly that used
00:05:43to happen at one time about 20 years ago uh there's been various claims that it no longer happens anymore
00:05:52i'm skeptical about those claims um according to these reports which are stress come out of russia a lot of
00:05:59that is going on still in pakistan itself and yes pakistan has had reasonably good relations with russia
00:06:07though not as good as they were when imran khan was prime minister but the russians have not forgotten
00:06:14the fact that pakistan that pakistan supplied artillery shells to ukraine and the russians appeared to feel
00:06:26that the pakistani overtures to them to try to get them to involve themselves in mediation between pakistan and
00:06:37india are mostly designed to make trouble between russia and india that they're not really intended
00:06:46sincerely what i'm also hearing and this is again mostly from russian sources is that china which has been
00:06:56consistently pakistan's major ally is concerned about the situation and which is trying to persuade pakistan
00:07:07to exercise further restraint and is not happy with the way in which the situation is being escalated and
00:07:17that they're telling that they're telling this to pakistan which they say is mostly responsible um for this
00:07:26well again i'm not in touch with anybody from china about this um china um historically has been a very
00:07:35strong ally of pakistan if the chinese are exerting themselves in that kind of way then it is big news
00:07:44and one which i suspect would be received with alarm in pakistan but there is no visible or open sign of
00:07:52this and again to reiterate i don't know but this is a very dangerous situation overall i've seen reports
00:08:01media reports which discount the possibility that this conflict will escalate to an all-out nuclear
00:08:08confrontation and i sincerely hope that those reports are true but i don't think one can afford to be
00:08:16complacent about what is happening and um i have to say i'm surprised that internationally um it is
00:08:25getting less attention than i think it should anyway that's what i'm going to say about the situation
00:08:35in the conflict between india and pakistan at the moment to reiterate again if people have more
00:08:43information both from the indian and the pakistani side they are welcome to provide it on the threads to
00:08:53the to this video on the thread to this video and also if they wish in emails to me i'll be very
00:09:01interested in what people have to say well let's now turn to the situation in ukraine and the conflict
00:09:09in ukraine and of course yesterday we had the big celebrations in moscow 29 leaders turned up for
00:09:19these celebrations they came from many places the president of egypt the president of ethiopia both visited
00:09:28um russia um and had meetings with president putin uh president lula of brazil to the anger and dismay
00:09:39of some governments in the west also came and participated in the um festivities in moscow
00:09:47he came at the head of a very strong delegation from brazil and there are photos of him meeting in
00:09:53the kremlin with putin and again the room is full with officials on each side of the table russian on
00:10:02the uh on putin's side of the table brazilian on um lula's side of the table so clearly an awful lot of
00:10:11serious issues were discussed and there was a lot of there must have been a lot of talk and i'm going to
00:10:18make a guess that perhaps the main topic of discussion was work on the next bricks summit meeting which
00:10:32is going to take place in brazil and brazil's work in setting up the new finance and payment systems
00:10:42that are part of the bricks project a central part of the bricks project which is by the way
00:10:50um an issue very close to president lula's own heart he's actually very keen on moving forward
00:11:00with this project as well so anyway those sorts of meetings took place putin also had very friendly
00:11:10meetings with the two european leaders who came with president uh feats of prime minister feats of
00:11:17of slovakia they had a very friendly meeting with each other feats are apparently keen to
00:11:25emphasize to putin the friendly feelings that people in slovakia have towards um russia
00:11:33he spoke very negatively negatively about kayakalas he said that he'd received a message from kayakalas
00:11:42that by going to moscow he was placing himself on the wrong side of history and feats of said that
00:11:47he generally did not understand what that message meant he also spoke about the irrational nature of the
00:11:57new sanctions that the european union is now talking about and its plan to stop imports of russian oil
00:12:05and gas energy products completely from 2027 and he said that this made no sense and was completely
00:12:13incompatible with the structure of slovakia's economy budin had a similar meeting with president
00:12:22vucic of serbia perhaps they discussed economic ties rather less but anyway there was again a lot of
00:12:33discussion about the history about the relationship between serbia and yugoslavia and the soviet union
00:12:42during the second world war the fact that they fought together as allies the fact that it was in
00:12:50fact the red army that liberated belgrade first yugoslavia and now serbia's capital and things of that kind so
00:13:00anyway those were the meetings that took place in moscow yesterday there'd been many other events of
00:13:08celebration there was a big popular holiday in russia large numbers of people came out and participated in
00:13:18the festivities there was also um events in the kremlin putin appeared with all sorts of um dignitaries
00:13:28from various countries he hosted them he had of course as i discussed yesterday he's very very long
00:13:36and earnest discussions with the chinese leader president xi xinping who i believe is still in russia
00:13:42though i understand that he's leaving today anyway um that was the um what took place in moscow yesterday
00:13:54and i forgot to mention incidentally that putin also had meetings with various military officials from north
00:14:03korea generals he shook hands with them there was he hugged one of them um thanking them for their
00:14:12contribution to the kursk operation and of course a chinese military contingent paraded through red square
00:14:20alongside the russian army so all of that happening yesterday in moscow
00:14:28today it is the other side that makes its move so today in kiev we're having a meeting between zelensky
00:14:42and the leaders of the key european states france germany britain and by the way also poland they're all
00:14:51in kiev and they're going to be meeting zelensky and as we will see they have now prepared their own plan
00:15:01to move to move forward and importantly they seem to have won over the trump administration to this plan
00:15:10now i will deal with all of that in a moment but before i do i should say that there is now growing
00:15:19criticism back home of one of the participants in this meeting who is the prime minister of great
00:15:30britain sir keir starmer now i have spoken in several programs about the fact that keir starmer seems to
00:15:39be increasingly out of touch with the realities of politics in britain that one gets the impression that
00:15:45he's not actually very interested in what is taking place in britain that he is devoting a disproportionate
00:15:53amount of time to uh foreign policy and a disproportionate amount of the time that he is devoting to foreign
00:16:02policy to ukraine to the conflict in ukraine there there are times when he appears to give the impression
00:16:13that he is more interested in what is happening in ukraine than he is in the country which he is supposed to
00:16:22be leading which is britain well we have now received media reports who now obtained media reports are
00:16:32appearing in britain admittedly in unfriendly newspapers that there is no doubt that these reports
00:16:40are in substance true that this identical criticism is now starting to be made of starmer by the
00:16:50parliamentary faction of his own party the labour party in fact we have a long report in the daily telegraph
00:17:01of a meeting in the british parliament of the labour parliamentary party supposedly carrying out an inquest
00:17:14on the disastrous local election results that took place just over a week ago and the defeat in the
00:17:22the by-election in fact this meeting took place apparently um on friday directly uh a week exactly a week after
00:17:33these this um massive defeat that the labour party suffered in these elections and it seems that criticism
00:17:43of starmer which up to now has been very muted within the parliamentary labour party finally boiled
00:17:52over and burst out into the open now before i proceed i should say that in the run-up to last year's
00:18:02general election which it seems extraordinary to say took place just 10 months ago starmer's uh team
00:18:12uh made a very careful had a very careful had a very careful policy of picking candidates for parliamentary
00:18:22constituencies who would stand for the labour party who would were expected to be um unswervingly loyal to his
00:18:33leadership so when that we learn of public criticism of starmer by the labour parliamentary party it is important
00:18:48to understand that this is perhaps the most loyal section of british society the one that was basically
00:19:00structured to provide him with the greatest degree of support for his leadership anyway i will now turn to
00:19:08this report which is interesting and it appears in the daily telegraph and it appeared yesterday and the
00:19:14title was starmer is missing in action say his mps prime minister accused of dodging angry black benches
00:19:24with one saying we have no leader and this all took place at a meeting in the parliamentary labour party
00:19:37and we were told we're told by the daily telegraph that dozens of mps have joined a rebellion against his
00:19:45controversial winter fuel cuts while around 40 of his mps have warned the prime minister that his welfare reforms
00:19:53are impossible to support the prime minister has been urged to change course uh on immigration with a
00:20:01leading mp in the socially conservative blue labour caucus warning it is now or never to win back the
00:20:10working class but rather than face disgruntled mps at a meeting of the parliamentary labour party on
00:20:19wednesday i said sorry i said friday it was actually on wednesday last week sir keir starmer sent peter
00:20:26pat mcfadden the chancellor of the duchy of lancaster now this is one of the cabinet positions which
00:20:34is normally filled by someone very loyal to the prime minister it does not involve leading a government
00:20:42department and the person who fills this position is rarely considered a significant figure within
00:20:49the government anyway we're then told that the fact that starmer himself did not come to this
00:20:57meeting but that he sent this other cabinet minister provoked great anger one mp who was at the wash up
00:21:09in other words this frightful meeting uh criticized the message and um said to the telegraph where was keir
00:21:19where the and then there's a swear word was he he's missing in action um mps compared the prime minister to
00:21:29david brent the hapless boss from the tv show the office well i'm sure many of you know the series i believe
00:21:40there's been an american adaptation as well but anyway this is an incompetent and bungling
00:21:45person who's supposed to run um a department in a paper company and it was a well-known british cabin uh
00:21:55comedy anyway uh compared the prime minister to david brent saying we have no leader there is no one that can
00:22:05lead the party no one that can come out and say this is the direction this is what we're going to do
00:22:14and then um another mp said that the minister who was sent pat mcfadden got absolutely rinsed
00:22:23by angry colleagues as he urged them to take the fight to reform and this mp said it was not even
00:22:31tone deaf just deaf and then we come to the key the key point another labor mp accused the prime minister
00:22:41of spending too much time of spending too much time on foreign policy whilst the party faces a crisis
00:22:49at the ballot box and um we told that we're then informed that um he was away again on friday he was
00:22:59out of the country again on friday um and um mps got the sense that he was missing in action
00:23:08he's too busy on foreign stuff everybody is saying the same so there you go i've been saying it
00:23:20for some weeks now that as i said kia starmer's obsession is ukraine when people talk about foreign policy
00:23:28i suspect it is code for ukraine that he's spending far too much time on this one topic even as
00:23:38everything else collapses around him and this is conveyed as strongly as possible by members of the
00:23:47parliamentary party to one of their uh one of kia starmer's lieutenants but i doubt it is going to get
00:23:56through i get the sense that kia starmer himself simply isn't interested in what is happening in
00:24:04britain or what his own mps think he works and thinks inside a cocoon for him foreign policy is far more
00:24:15important focusing on ukraine is far more important and i don't myself imagine that he's going to change
00:24:23course or has any interest in or desire to do so anyway most of the media is avoiding talking about
00:24:34the um excessive focus i'm being careful in my use of words on kia starmer's part in ukraine
00:24:45but one can see that it has been noticed even amongst the loyalists within his own parliamentary
00:24:53party and that they're starting to complain about it well having discussed kia starmer let's now get to
00:25:00that meeting that has just a that is taking place in kiev today because the meeting and the reporting about
00:25:09it the advanced reporting about it that we are getting from the british media from reuters and from the
00:25:18financial times finally explains that very mysterious and strange uh post that donald trump published on
00:25:27truth social yesterday and i will come to it again i will just briefly repeat the few the first few words
00:25:36talks this is by donald trump talks with russia ukraine continue the u.s calls for ideally a 30-day
00:25:44unconditional ceasefire hopefully an acceptable ceasefire will be observed and both countries will be held
00:25:53accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations if the ceasefire is not respected the
00:26:01u.s and its partners will inform impose further sanctions none of that made very much sense to me
00:26:09yesterday but following the report that appeared in reuters and an article that has appeared in financial
00:26:17the financial times it all now begins to make sense because apparently what all of these people
00:26:24people and we're talking about macro um melts starmer and tusk are talking about with zelensky in kiev
00:26:37is their new wonderful latest plan and their latest plan briefly is this either russia is presented
00:26:51with an ultimatum to agree to a 30-day ceasefire or in the alternative ukraine announces unilaterally
00:27:02a 30-day ceasefire if russia either rejects the ultimatum or ukraine's unilaterally declared ceasefire
00:27:15then the west the united states the europeans will proceed with further sanctions now we're not told
00:27:25what those sanctions are they may be the bone crunching sanctions that lindsey graham has been
00:27:31talking about but anyway there will certainly be more sanctions i saw one report that appeared a couple of
00:27:40days ago which said that trump is considering sanctions against gas pro russia's gas export monopoly
00:27:49and also sanctions against parts of the russian financial system and i'm going to make a guess
00:27:58that the target here is going to be the russian central bank there will be attempts to sanction
00:28:05russia's russia's central bank um prohibiting western countries from having contacts with it and perhaps
00:28:16prohibiting third countries from having contacts with it as well for the record this would not be the
00:28:23first time that the united states has sanctioned the central bank of another country
00:28:28i believe it has already done so with the central bank of iran and in the case of iran we can see that it has
00:28:40had well hardly any actual effect either geostrategic or diplomatic or as far as i can see economic
00:28:54either but anyway that appears to be well that is the plan we've been reading about it from reuters uh
00:29:03reuters says that they've been briefed about it by a french diplomat and the financial times also tells
00:29:13us that um diplomats who are involved in these discussions in kiev are thinking about doing the same
00:29:22thing and that as i said explains this very strange truth social post that donald trump published on
00:29:34on truth social yesterday the u.s calls for ideally a 30-day ceasefire hopefully an acceptable ceasefire
00:29:45will be observed and both countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these
00:29:52direct negotiations if the ceasefire is not respected the us and its partners will impose further
00:29:59sanctions so the idea is either
00:30:05give the russians an ultimatum to agree to a ceasefire within a set period of time and then follow
00:30:12up with sanctions or and perhaps more likely try to persuade zelensky and the ukrainians to declare a
00:30:2030-day unilateral ceasefire and hammer the russians with sanctions if they don't agree and don't observe
00:30:30the ceasefire which has been declared unilaterally in that kind of way now there is an obvious problem
00:30:40with this which is that we are looking at or talking about a ceasefire proposal
00:30:47which the russians have already rejected now putin and trump had a discussion on this very topic of a
00:30:5630-day ceasefire um on the 18th of march this was directly after the meeting between the ukrainians and the
00:31:06americans in jeddah up to that point and this again needs to be reiterated zelensky had been rejecting
00:31:15ceasefires he adamantly refused to receive a ceasefire in 2023 after the defeat of ukraine's summer offensive
00:31:28of that year i can remember lots of statements by ukrainian officials and by zelensky himself in the
00:31:36autumn of 2023 adamantly rejecting a freeze adamantly rejecting a ceasefire then of course over the
00:31:46course of 2024 the russians of 2024 the russians launched their great at launched an offensive
00:31:52first avdeevka fell then ocheretino fell then all sorts of other places in donbass also began to fall
00:32:03one after another in the summer of 2024 ukraine launched its operation in kursk but that ended
00:32:16in disastrous failure as we all know um in the autumn of 2024 missile strikes were authorized against
00:32:28russian territory itself and attack him's missiles and storm shadow missiles were launched against
00:32:34russia and some people seem to think that that would make a difference except that it didn't and
00:32:40well one way or the other um after continuing to oppose a ceasefire throughout the summer and autumn of
00:32:512024 2024 zelensky finally and with great deal of reluctance came around and accepted this idea now it is
00:33:05important to say at this point that i've seen some people claim that zelensky did in fact back a ceasefire
00:33:14um in the summer and autumn of 2024 on the contrary he was still talking about his victory plan um
00:33:25unrestrained military support by the united states for ukraine he set it all out in a speech i remember
00:33:34to the ukrainian parliament he was absolutely at that time still committed to supporting the wool
00:33:41and as recently as february when he went to the oval office meeting he was still saying that a
00:33:48ceasefire ukraine could not accept a ceasefire unless the united states gave ukraine a security guarantee
00:33:57in other words unless the united states agreed to take military action to enforce the ceasefire
00:34:04if the russians violated it in the event the united states refused to give such a security guarantee
00:34:14and the americans then staged the meeting with the ukrainian delegation in jeddah as i discussed at the
00:34:22time zelensky himself was kept away at a distance the americans worked on the ukrainians and the ukrainians
00:34:33finally came around and accepted at this meeting a 30-day ceasefire without getting that american
00:34:41guarantee and without conditions however though the ukrainians have not succeeded in getting an american
00:34:52security guarantee the european states britain and france have been eager to provide those security
00:35:01guarantees and macron and starma have been talking about sending troops to ukraine to back that security
00:35:11guarantee from the europeans with armed force on ukrainian territory so that's the story of zelensky's
00:35:22of zelensky's attitudes to a ceasefire until the meeting in jeddah he opposed it he was completely
00:35:30against the idea in 2023 2024 he gradually shifted ground especially after donald trump's election but he still
00:35:43demanded security guarantees for ukraine from the united states the ukrainians were forced after the united
00:35:52states cut off intelligence assistance and military aid to agree to a unconditional 30-day ceasefire
00:36:02at the talks in jeddah zelensky came around but the europeans provided a obviously inadequate security
00:36:13guarantee and nonetheless said that they would back it with troops all of which the russians rejected and
00:36:22then there was a telephone conversation on the 18th of march after the jeddah meeting between trump and
00:36:30putin and i've discussed this telephone conversation on many occasions i pointed out that the russian
00:36:39readout makes it clear that the meeting was contentious even acrimonious it referred to a full and frank
00:36:49exchange of views which suggests something that just fell short of an outright row but the point
00:37:00is that putin held his ground and rejected the american demand for an unconditional ceasefire
00:37:09putin said that before such a ceasefire could be agreed various nuances had to be taken into account
00:37:21such as how would the ceasefire be monitored who would be responsible for doing that
00:37:29and given the history given the fact that ukraine used the ceasefire the effective ceasefire that was
00:37:40put in place after the 2015 minsk agreement to re-equip and re-arm and build up its armed forces the russians
00:37:51could not afford to go through all of that all over again they would not give the ukrainians that sort
00:37:58of respite the united states and the western powers would have to agree instead to cease all supplies of
00:38:08military equipment to ukraine and all intelligence sharing with ukraine and unless that happened there was
00:38:17no possibility that a ceasefire would make any sense from a russian point of view now that was what putin said
00:38:26on the 18th of march so putin in effect as i said at the time politely rejected the proposal for an
00:38:40unconditional ceasefire now the europeans and it seems the americans because trump's true social post
00:38:51shows that the americans are on board with this are going to present the whole ceasefire plan again to
00:38:59the russians backed this time with an ultimatum to impose further sanctions in other words the europeans
00:39:10are planning to propose to the russians that which the russians have already rejected
00:39:18now in case there is any misunderstanding here what we doubt the russians have again made clear over the
00:39:26course of the last few hours that the position that putin outlined in his telephone call to trump
00:39:35on the 18th of march and by the way in the press conference that took place shortly before
00:39:43um a press conference which was attended by the yellow russian leader um alexander lukashenko
00:39:52that putin's rejection of the ceasefire plan the american 30-day unconditional ceasefire plan
00:40:01the russians have made clear that it remains fully in effect firstly we've had comments about this
00:40:09from peskov peskov spoke yesterday and we had a report yesterday about some of the things that he said
00:40:21that were uh provide that was provided by the official russian news agency tasks and i'll read the task
00:40:30report its date its title is discussion of 30-day ceasefire impossible without nuances taken
00:40:39into account and the report goes on to say a detailed discussion of a 30-day ceasefire with ukraine is
00:40:47impossible without nuances taken into account kremlin spokesman dmitry peskov told reporters
00:40:54when the issue of ceasefire was announced by u.s president donald trump's administration it was
00:41:01supported supported by president putin with a proviso that there were many nuances around
00:41:08the idea of a ceasefire without finding answers to which it is very difficult to speak about it in detail
00:41:19so that was what peskov said um to reporters but then subsequently he spoke to um abc news
00:41:32and he was much more explicit he said if we speak about a ceasefire what are you going to do with shipments
00:41:42of weapons coming every day from the united states and european countries we want arms supplies to be
00:41:50stopped otherwise it will be advantageous for ukraine ukraine will continue their total mobilization
00:42:00bringing new troops to the front line ukraine will use this period to train new military personnel
00:42:06and to give a rest to their existing ones so why would we want to grant such an advantage to ukraine
00:42:17so the russians have already rejected this proposal they've already said that they're not prepared to
00:42:26agree to the kind of 30-day unconditional ceasefire that the americans were talking about they still want
00:42:36monitoring and all those mechanisms to be agreed and sorted out and by the way they're absolutely right
00:42:41about that a ceasefire that does not have monitoring systems in place is worthless it is almost certain
00:42:51to break down very quickly as we shall see alternatively and beyond that even if a ceasefire is
00:43:03successfully put in place it will just be a repeat of minsk all over again the ukrainians will re-arm re-equip
00:43:15retrain reinforce and in 5 10 15 20 years the war will resume all over again given that the ukrainians are
00:43:25not prepared to accept the territorial changes and given that the europeans support them in this and given
00:43:35that the europeans intend to deploy troops to western ukraine as they have been openly talking about
00:43:42so the russians have already rejected this proposal but now it is apparently going to be presented to
00:43:52them all over again with a threat of sanctions if they don't agree now it's unclear to me who has come
00:44:03up with this particular plan there are some suggestions that it comes from friedrich mertz
00:44:10a couple of days ago he said that he was happy about the three-day uh ceasefire over the period of the
00:44:17victory day celebrations and that there would be intense discussions over the this weekend and that he was
00:44:25expecting that the ceasefire would be extended and it looks as if what he's now going to try to pressure
00:44:32zelensky to agree to is to declare unilaterally this 30-day ceasefire with threats of further sanctions
00:44:42against the russians if they don't agree so it could be that this originates with mats or it could be
00:44:49that it originates from kellogg and the constellation of neocons that circulate in washington ultimately
00:45:00it doesn't matter the point is the one way or another donald trump has come around to support this
00:45:10stance it's clear that there is no unity about this within his administration uh jd vance
00:45:19has already expressed deep skepticism about this he's said that the united states should focus on
00:45:28getting direct negotiations between ukraine and russia started rather than seek to obtain the ceasefire
00:45:39but it seems that for the moment the whole plan the project nonetheless continues to be
00:45:46to get the ceasefire to freeze the conflict in the way the general kellogg was talking about
00:45:54in accordance with general kellogg's plan and to try to strong arm the russians to reverse their positions
00:46:02and to agree to something that they have previously rejected now why
00:46:08why is there any assumption that this is going to succeed i i i ask this question why is it assumed
00:46:20that the russians will agree today to what they rejected outright in march
00:46:29um there's no sign as of this time that the russians have reconsidered their position
00:46:42um peskov by the way has made it crystal clear over the course of his various discussions yesterday
00:46:49and today that nobody has floated this proposal up to now to them they're only getting this information
00:47:00from the media reports in the right in reuters and in the financial times and places like that
00:47:06so it's not as if they've agreed to a ceasefire so why do people assume that the russians are going to
00:47:18crumble in the face of this ultimatum now here perhaps it's worth saying a few things
00:47:32about the nature of the ultimatum that is coming because it is an ultimatum to impose further sanctions
00:47:40against russia and perhaps they will include secondary sanctions against um the russian energy trade as
00:47:50well maybe we will be getting lindsey graham's bone crunching sanctions and all that now there have been
00:48:00endless sanctions packages imposed on russia going all the way back to 2014 there's been one package of
00:48:09sanctions after another there was a massive sanctions package as we all remember in february 2022
00:48:18the assets of the russian central bank were seized there was um confident predictions that the ruble
00:48:26would collapse um there were predictions that russia's gdp would collapse between a third and a half
00:48:39the french finance minister was confidently talking about the total collapse of the russian economy
00:48:49none of that happened the russian economy stabilized over the course of 2022 there was
00:48:55um some inflation quite a lot of inflation but it was brought very quickly under control
00:49:05there were predictions as i remember that there would be an industrial decline in russia a major
00:49:11industrial decline in june 2022 when supposedly the subcomponent parts from the west were the stockpile of
00:49:23them um was no longer available so that russian equipment and machines would not be able to work
00:49:31instead what happened was that starting from june 2022 the russian economy began
00:49:38it's process of expansion in 2023 despite further sanctions packages the russian economy
00:49:50grew well according to russian figures gdp grew by 4.1 percent the russians have now revised their figures
00:50:00upwards for 2024 they now say that in 2024 the russian economy grew even faster by 4.3 percent gdp growth
00:50:14in 2024 was 4.3 percent the russian central bank as we know increased interest rates in the summer because
00:50:27they became alarmed correctly and properly that's what central banks are supposed to do about the increase
00:50:35in inflation so they increased interest rates ultimately to the level of 21 percent there were
00:50:44lots of predictions that this would lead to a major economic decline in russia we've now had the first
00:50:52figures for gdp growth in russia in the first quarter and it appears to have come out with a positive reading
00:51:02of 2.3 percent which was surprised many people including me by the way on the upside and the latest pmi
00:51:14services in russia have been pointing to increases strengthening in um industrial growth and stable
00:51:29services a stable services sector so the point i'm making is that sanctions up to this time
00:51:37don't seem to have been at all successful on the contrary instead of a collapse we have seen economic
00:51:48growth there's been all kinds of claims or attempted claims that this economic growth isn't somehow real
00:51:57that the civilian economy is suffering that this is all part of military keynesianism and all of that
00:52:05but as i've discussed in many places at many times the actual figures the actual proportion of the economy
00:52:13that is being committed to military production roughly six percent of gdp really do not does not justify
00:52:24these claims so why assume that a further round of sanctions is going to make
00:52:32a difference well of course this time we're going to have more open secondary sanctions the trouble
00:52:39with secondary sanctions however is that they're only effective if others observe them are intimidated
00:52:46by them we have just had 29 leaders of countries come to moscow this is despite talk and threats
00:52:56of secondary sanctions that have already been circulating we've had the chinese president have lengthy and
00:53:04detailed discussions with the russian president talking about further economic cooperation specifically
00:53:13by the way on energy related matters but of course on many other things it doesn't look as if the chinese
00:53:20are in any mood to scale down their economic relationship with russia and they've gone out of their way to say
00:53:28that as far as they they are concerned they will not um bow to any attempts by the united states
00:53:37to interfere in their relationship with russia and china is now once again the biggest buyer of russian energy
00:53:47products and it is also the major supplier of many technological goods to russia though the russians
00:53:59themselves have been increasing the output of their own industries a fact which the west continues to
00:54:06underestimate so the same could be said about other countries a few days ago as discussed prime minister
00:54:12modi of india spoke with president putin prime minister modi and president putin agreed that external
00:54:20interference would not be allowed to affect this strategic partnership between india and russia and
00:54:29if it is indeed the case that the united states is involved in helping pakistan perhaps as part of some
00:54:38attempt to put pressure on india who knows well all i could say is it is more likely to antagonize and
00:54:45alienate india and make them feel that they need to work with their russian allies even further
00:54:53than to bend to the americans on this question of sanctions secondary sanctions and well prime minister
00:55:02starmer of britain has just signed a trade agreement with india is he prepared to reverse that because india buys
00:55:14russian oil is the united states prepared to put secondary sanctions on india conceivably jeopardizing the united
00:55:28united states its own relationship with india which the united states sees as a strategic partner
00:55:35against china because india continues to import
00:55:41russian oil why would india comply why would the united states want to do those things there's been lots of talk
00:55:53about sanctioning or interfering with russia's shadow fleet attempts to sanction individual ships and that
00:56:06kind of thing again people who think in this way as i said many times have little idea of the international
00:56:16maritime industry what an incredibly complex and fungible thing that is how ships change flags
00:56:27and registrations and uh do all sorts of things how they're able to transfer products on the high seas
00:56:34from one ship to another ship all kinds of things of that kind um this will be a nightmare
00:56:43to enforce if it is backed by force then as i said it could result in all kinds of problems the russians
00:56:53have already warned against any attempt to impose a blockade on their baltic ports
00:57:02if anybody is thinking along those lines it seems to me that not only will it fail it will also
00:57:09potentially lead to an extremely dangerous escalation so there we go and as i said sanctions on the russian
00:57:20banking industry which is already massively sanctioned what what difference is that actually going to make
00:57:30especially as the brick states move forward with setting up their own alternative payment systems which
00:57:38they seem to be keen increasingly keen to do now the big player here is of course china
00:57:50the united states is already involved in an economic war against china it's increased its sanctions
00:57:59to prodigious levels uh to this tariffs to prodigious levels 145 on some chinese goods 245 apparently on
00:58:10other chinese goods though it's had to relax sanctions on certain consumer goods that are imported from china
00:58:21there's been multiple claims that this is that china is coming around people are looking at the coming talks
00:58:30in geneva between china and the united states on the tariff question as signaling that china has bent
00:58:39to the american position and there's been an article to that effect
00:58:43in reuters which is based on the usual army of um anonymous sources and which has been seized on
00:58:57by all sorts of people mostly in the united states as some kind of confirmation that the chinese have
00:59:05in effect been forced to come around and to accept the american position
00:59:10in fact if you read the reuters article carefully you discover that the truth is otherwise it was in fact
00:59:18and the reuters article confirms this the united states that made the first move and asked china
00:59:27to begin negotiations about lowering the tariffs um moreover the chinese initially were uncertain whether to
00:59:39agree and when they did propose an official to conduct the talks who was china's commerce minister
00:59:49the americans were deeply disappointed and said that this person was too junior to conduct those talks
00:59:57and that they wanted the talks to be conducted with someone more senior instead well after some discussion
01:00:05the chinese agreed the chinese agreed to send one of their vice premiers to meet with the americans this person
01:00:11is being referred to in the media as china's economic supremo he is not by the way just to say that is
01:00:22a grotesque oversimplification of the political structures in china just to say but anyway um
01:00:30the meeting in geneva is apparently going to take place but the reuters article acknowledged
01:00:41that the chinese are so far deeply unimpressed by what the americans appear to be proposing
01:00:49and they have downgraded it so it is no longer negotiation it has been downgraded to the status of a meeting
01:01:00uh it's merely intended to explore what each side's red lines are it doesn't look as if the chinese
01:01:09have broken or capitulated to the americans at all on the contrary the chinese seem to be having more
01:01:18success in winning people round to their perspective um several asian countries have agreed with china they've
01:01:28published a series of joint statements with china which are openly critical of american tariff policy
01:01:39and japan and south korea agreed to one and there was another one of these statements which also appears to
01:01:49extend to japan as well so given that this is so what is the united states going to do if the chinese
01:02:01continue to import russian oil and energy project products and as i said they're the key players here
01:02:08is the united states going to call off the meeting in geneva is it going to impose still more tariffs
01:02:16against china what exactly is it going to do a couple of days ago donald trump published a post on true
01:02:25social in which he said that any country that continues to import iranian oil will no longer
01:02:32be able to do business with the united states to my knowledge china continues to import oil from iran but
01:02:40we see that instead of following up on that threat the united states now wants to meet with china to try
01:02:49to find some means to reduce the tariffs and to get trade started restarted and perhaps to get the chinese
01:02:58to relent on the export ban of certain rare earths to the united states so this whole idea of further
01:03:09sanctions of more pressure economic pressure on the russians to agree to a to this 30-day ceasefire which
01:03:17they have already rejected as of now i just don't see what actual sense it makes if we start talking
01:03:28about blockades in the blacks in the baltic sea that is a massive escalation involving the use of nato
01:03:36warships to seize ships which might not be russian they might be from third countries trading with russia
01:03:44on the high seas at a time when to repeat a further point the western powers and russia are not
01:03:53not technically in a state of war with each other not only is the legality of this dubious but it is also
01:04:03incredibly dangerous
01:04:07economically it's going to cause the russians some further problems but the evidence is with all the
01:04:19sanctions going all the way back to 2014 that the russians will find a work round and as i have already
01:04:28discussed in many programs now given that we are talking about a self-sufficient economy which is able
01:04:36to feed itself provide all the raw materials and other products that it needs which has a strong industrial
01:04:45and technological base sanctions on russia are not a particularly good idea now there is another
01:04:54interesting aspect about this particular ultimatum which is of course it is the threat does seem to be
01:05:04couched in terms of sanctions apparently for the moment at least not further arms supplies
01:05:14and that's unsurprising because the western powers have already run down their stockpiles to continue to
01:05:24arm ukraine mertz apparently is keen to send more weapons from germany to ukraine um the critical condition
01:05:36of the bundes of the bundes of air makes that very unwise and german officials are deeply negative about
01:05:44this and so is the wider public in germany so mertz is now doing exactly what you would expect him to do
01:05:53he's introduced regulations that reduces the degree of transparency the information that the german
01:06:03government is now required to provide to the german public about arms transfers to ukraine he is in
01:06:12other words going to strip the german military of even more of the limited number of weapons
01:06:20that ukraine the germany still has in order to go on arming ukraine in britain it's now all but
01:06:29admitted that the british military is out of self-propelled howitzers uh its military condition is terrible
01:06:38and this is true of most of the militaries across europe as well i've discussed the difficulties about
01:06:45increased military production in many other places the united states can still provide
01:06:51weapons weapons to ukraine it has far greater stockpiles than any other nato country but it has
01:07:00a potential conflict with china on its mind there is uncertainties about the prospects of deals with iran
01:07:12and there might be a conflict with iran in the autumn there are suggestions that this might be so
01:07:23the united states itself is not in as strong a position to go on arming ukraine as has been suggested
01:07:34by some people there and frankly it's also the case as i've discussed in many programs that
01:07:44continuing to arm ukraine would put donald trump in direct conflict with his electoral base
01:07:55a fact that people like marjorie taylor green and sean davis the ceo of the federalist are pointed out
01:08:03pointing out with the potential of this causing trump serious problems going forward so
01:08:12if the sanctions don't work you can of course provide weapons but if the weapons don't work
01:08:24what then what if the russians reject this ultimatum or this 30-day unilateral ceasefire that ukraine
01:08:38has or may be about to announce what if the europeans and the americans do impose their sanctions
01:08:52and what if it doesn't work what if the russian economy continues to adjust to the new sanctions pressure
01:09:01if the rest of the world as it is indicated refuses to enforce the sanctions and what if the russian offensive
01:09:14continues and continues to gain ground as it has been continuously doing since october 2023
01:09:24now at this point it's perhaps worth saying a few things about the military situation in ukraine
01:09:30over the last 24 hours and i've come to a conclusion that the truce the victory day truce that putin
01:09:41announced some days ago and which was supposedly took effect on the 7th of october oh 7th of may i'm sorry
01:09:49was mostly intended to stop drone attacks mutual drone attacks by each side against the other
01:10:04principally to ensure the safety of the leaders who were coming to moscow for the victory day parade
01:10:12despite claims from the russian side based on the information i am receiving the russian ground forces
01:10:27don't seem to have paid much attention to the ceasefire any more than the ukrainian forces appear to have
01:10:34paid much attention to the ceasefire i say that because in fact over the last couple of days
01:10:43it's the very days when the ceasefire was supposed to be in place the russian military has significantly
01:10:51strengthened its positions right across the front lines now i'm not going to go into huge amount
01:10:59of detail but suffice to say that if we start from the south in the village of bagatir in southwest donetsk
01:11:09there's much more there's many reports now of the russians making now being in control of around
01:11:1625 to 30 percent of this village they seem to be continuing to advance in the village there's no sign
01:11:25of them slowing down in the fighting for this village and it is widely assumed that bagatir will fall
01:11:33under russian control at some point within the next well maybe weak maybe it's unwise for me to make
01:11:41predictions on this the russians continue to advance uh southwest of pakrovsk towards the important
01:11:53village of novel pavlovka which is located in nepro region but which appears to be a major logistics hub
01:12:03or this some kind of a logistics hub for the ukrainian military there's been more reports that the russians
01:12:09have taken more positions um and are advancing further towards that village i discussed the
01:12:17situation in pakrovsk a few days ago that the fact that the russians appear to have made more advances
01:12:25south of pakrovsk and that there is now at least a possibility that the russians control more of southern
01:12:33pakrovsk than has been disclosed up to now the russians have gained significant further ground in the area
01:12:45south of konstantinovka and they have not only advanced and captured several villages there key villages
01:12:56including a village called alexander pill but they seem to be um gradually fragmenting ukrainian defenses
01:13:05um south of konstantinovka and it looks certain that a battle for konstantinovka of some sort
01:13:15is likely to begin very soon and in the area of liman the liman area um the russians uh apparently or
01:13:27according to some reports have now entered the village of kolodyazi which is located northeast of liman it is
01:13:35actually very close to liman um and they are also um on the other side of the um seversky donets river
01:13:49they've apparently re-entered the city the village of toskye and they're also the russians are also
01:13:57supposedly or at least i don't believe supposedly but they're making more advances um in the areas
01:14:05around novje and the important village of ridko dub which some see as the key to the eventual capture
01:14:16of liman itself now again maybe on the map these don't look like big advances but they are significant
01:14:27advances nonetheless i would suggest and they bring the russians closer and closer to the point where
01:14:36an offensive against slaviansk kramatorsk
01:14:41konstantinovka an attack on these towns um is pending and the one area incidentally where i'm hearing
01:14:52far less information than i was is in the area um northwest of the oskal rivers near kopiansk it looks
01:15:00as if the russian advance there is on hold maybe there's some kind of troop rotation underway but in
01:15:08the meantime the ukrainian attempts to break through into korsk region again and to capture the village of
01:15:15tortlinon all appear to have failed so the russians continue their advance and they have not yet committed
01:15:24their two reserve armies now i received a correction from an important source about the topic of the reserve
01:15:33reserve armies um i think two days ago i said that the total force represented by these two res reserve
01:15:45armies numbered around to a hundred and twenty thousand by my understanding all made up of
01:15:55uh contract soldiers um commanded by veteran officers and ncos who have fought in the war already i was
01:16:08immediately corrected about this it is not 120 000 men in total that these two reserve armies consist of
01:16:19it is rather 120 000 men which is the number of each of these armies so we are looking at an aggregate force
01:16:34trained and built up over roughly two years with veteran officers veteran ncos and professional soldiers
01:16:45equipped with modern weapons numbering around a quarter of a million men which has not yet been
01:16:54committed to the battle so all of these shaping operations and they should not just be discounted by
01:17:03themselves they're steadily eating away at ukraine's remaining defenses in donbass all of these
01:17:12operations with the russians having this enormous force building up in the rear and that of course is not
01:17:23the sum total of the forces that the russians are building up in other places as well anyway
01:17:32so what if the russians do decide to go to reject the ultimatum if the
01:17:46sanctions don't stop them and they never have done at any point in the war
01:17:52if they continue to advance what is the next plan what precise idea is there to turn the situation
01:18:06round then can i also say that over the last couple of days there has been an enormous amount of chatter
01:18:18about orashnik missiles gathering in kaputin yar the russian test site and being prepared for big missile
01:18:29strikes against ukraine you can find these reports in various places unclear to me what these missile
01:18:39strikes with the orashniks would be intended to do at this stage in the conflict but obviously
01:18:48if the russians do start launching orashnik missiles against ukrainian targets particularly
01:18:55multiple strikes using the orashniks against specific targets well it's difficult to see how that will not
01:19:04also have a significant maybe even dramatic effect on the battlefields so what then what does the west do
01:19:15at that time well i'm going to make a guess i don't think starmer macron uh um mouth or of course tusk
01:19:26have any clear answers to this i can say definitely what zelensky will do he will do what he always does he
01:19:36will come and he will demand even more weapons he will demand even more supplies he will inevitably as night
01:19:43follows day demand the deployment of western combat forces to ukraine that has been his objective in my
01:19:51opinion all along he wants to involve the western powers in direct combat with the russians that is
01:20:00what he will demand what he will demand what will the west however do what will donald trump do
01:20:10now donald trump appears to believe that he can let kellogg and rubio and the other hardliners
01:20:21in his administration lead him along this path of imposing further sanctions on the russians
01:20:30and well if that doesn't work maybe he can come back in the future and try something else
01:20:37i said yesterday that one of the interesting things about the truth social post that he's just published
01:20:44is that it carries no conviction the u.s calls for ideally a 30-day unconditional ceasefire hopefully an
01:20:55acceptable ceasefire will be observed it's not as if he really seems to believe that any of this is going
01:21:03to happen why words like ideally and hopefully and he then talks about the
01:21:15his services he's available on a moment's notice his services are needed so that if suddenly things
01:21:24all turn out otherwise well maybe he can step in and sort things out i get the sense here that maybe he
01:21:32imagines that if the sanctions somehow have the kind of effect that he appears to believe they will
01:21:40that kellogg and co have perhaps told him that they will that putin will call him and agree this meeting
01:21:50and will beg him to relent in some way and then he will be available at a moment's notice if his services
01:21:59are needed to help put it out of the crisis in which putin and russia will supposedly find themselves
01:22:07i think that is absolutely deluded by the way but maybe that is what donald trump um genuinely and
01:22:14seriously believes just saying well what if that doesn't happen in fact it seems to me that there is
01:22:25at least an equal possibility i would say actually a very very much stronger possibility that if trump
01:22:32does impose further sanctions on the russians then what he will find is that the russians not only reject
01:22:42the sanctions and continue their military operation as they have said but that he has finally and
01:22:51completely burnt his bridges to them even yesterday peskov was careful not to criticize trump personally
01:23:02he said that the russian leadership continues to be grateful to trump for the efforts that he is making
01:23:10to bring to bring the conflict to bring the conflict to an end but perhaps a stronger guide to the real
01:23:17feelings in moscow are those expressed by putin's aide yuri ushakov who spoke about how the russians are more
01:23:26disappointed with the americans meaning trump than trump is with the russians if trump goes forward
01:23:37and starts imposing further sanctions on the russians especially the bone crunching sanctions that lindsey graham
01:23:47is talking about and perhaps kellogg is talking about then it seems to me that the russians might
01:23:57conclude in fact i would suspect that they would conclude that trump
01:24:07is a lost cause just as happened during his first term when he was elected on a mandate
01:24:17of improving relations with russia but relations between the united states and russia instead deteriorated
01:24:27so in his second term it is the same all over again russia will decide that trump whatever his
01:24:41personal views and feelings about russia might be whether he whether he really does want to improve
01:24:49relations between the united states and russia as he continuously says the russians might say to themselves
01:24:57well look he can't deliver it's pointless wasting further time with him we have a strong and good
01:25:06relationship with china putin and see get on with each other and trust each other the chinese may be tough
01:25:15and difficult negotiators but when a deal with them is done it is done and there's no further
01:25:23doubt or reason to rethink or worry about it the russians might say let's not waste any more time with donald trump
01:25:39he's just another american politician he comes making all sorts of promises but the promises ultimately mean
01:25:48absolutely nothing let's continue instead with a special military operation let's not get distracted
01:25:56by diplomatic overtures which lead nowhere and let's just move forward and continue the war
01:26:05now that i go to suggest for trump personally is perhaps the worst outcome
01:26:12possible it would mean for example that he might actually face a genuine saigon fall of saigon moment
01:26:23if he goes down the road of imposing sanctions then he will indeed have taken ownership of the wall and he
01:26:32will have publicly aligned himself and the united states with ukraine despite the widespread view probably true
01:26:44that he doesn't like zelensky very much and despite the fact that much of his base
01:26:51actively dislikes and even despises zelensky well it is not my purpose here to try to persuade trump
01:27:05to change his mind or to take steps that might rescue his presidency it seems incredible to me
01:27:17that even at this point of the war even as the russians continue to advance
01:27:25there still seems to be this illusion that something could somehow be done
01:27:33which can reverse the situation and preserve ukraine and deliver the kind of diplomatic and political
01:27:44victory that people like mr aaron west mitchell that i discussed in my program yesterday still imagine
01:27:56but there it is the west continues to cling to its own assumptions
01:28:05i suspect that we're going to have to see we're going to have to test those assumptions
01:28:10and see to what extent they're true and whether as i think much more likely they fail and then i wonder
01:28:21what new cunning plan the western powers will come up with and what they will do
01:28:29well this is my program today more from me soon let me remind you again you can find all
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01:28:56see you soon have a very good day
01:29:07you