- 9 months ago
India will conduct nationwide civil defence drills tomorrow for the first time since 1971, preparing citizens for a potential confrontation with Pakistan.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching To The Point. I'm Preeti Chaudhary.
00:02We are witnessing civil defence drills, mock drills, sirens are going to blare post-1971.
00:09We're getting war ready. But are we really going to war?
00:12We're going to try and get some answers on that.
00:14First up, allow me to take you through the headlines.
00:21India gets ready for civil defence drills, citizens to get safety training and protocol to follow,
00:27drills on how to navigate during blackouts to be helped.
00:30Back-to-back huddles chaired by Prime Minister Modi meets National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's
00:42second meeting between the last 24 hours.
00:49Pakistan named and chained at the UN-clause door open in South for Pakistan,
00:53nation's corner Pakistan on Pehalga massacre.
01:00Pakistan army attacked in Balochistan.
01:05IED attack on Park army vehicles.
01:07Six soldiers killed in explosion.
01:14Domestic politics continues to brew post-Pahalgaam.
01:17Congress Chief Kharge big claims as Prime Minister dropped Jammu and Kashmir visit three days before attack.
01:23BJP accuses Congress of double-speak on terror.
01:31Amidst raging tariff war, India and UK finalise historic free trade agreement along with a double-contribution convention.
01:38All right, the big news break coming in right on the top of 7 p.m.
01:57India has found support in Qatar.
02:00Prime Minister Modi has spoken to the Emir of Qatar on the phone and Qatar has expressed solidarity with India.
02:06Qatar backs India's fight against terror.
02:09Mind you viewers, Qatar has been a strong ally of Pakistan, so it's a statement of support to India is very, very significant.
02:18The Ministry of External Affairs has said in a telephonic conversation with the Prime Minister today,
02:23the Emir of the state of Qatar, HH Sheikh Tamin bin Hamad Al Thani conveyed condolences
02:29and solidarity with the people of India at the loss of lives in the cross-border terror attack in Pahalgaam.
02:35He expressed full support in India's fight against terrorism and all its actions to bring the perpetrators to justice.
02:42The Prime Minister thanked the Emir of Qatar for the clear message of solidarity and support.
02:49We have put this in perspective.
02:50India is getting tremendous amount of international support and now countries that have largely been seen as allies of Pakistan
02:57also openly coming up and siding where India is concerned.
03:02This news break of significance, especially on where India is standing today, what we are seemingly looking.
03:11All right, okay, all right, let's, more breaking news right now coming in, air sirens in Firozput have been witnessed.
03:24This is, of course, part of the security drill.
03:26Let's listen in.
03:27This is a very important location.
03:57foreign
05:57You know, right now, this is a mock for the mock drill that is going to take place tomorrow.
06:05So preparations for that mock drill that is going to take place tomorrow, the 7th of May.
06:10India clearly getting war ready viewers.
06:13But is India anywhere close to a war?
06:16We don't want to sound alarmist.
06:18This is not an attempt to spread panic.
06:20But what many suggest is that the last time India witnessed any of the standard operating
06:27wartime protocol was in the year 1971.
06:30And this is practically the apt time, if at all we see a retaliatory response from Pakistan
06:36that especially the civilians should be ready for it.
06:40And that's exactly what you see unfold.
06:42There, I'm sure, a sense of apprehension.
06:46We don't want to spread panic.
06:48India is not going to war.
06:49But all of these are measures in place to be war ready.
06:54I want to connect right now to my colleague, Gaurav Savant, managing editor in the studio with
07:00me, is also senior journalist, Sandeep Unithan.
07:03Gaurav, I would reckon the last time silence bled across India was in the year 1971, over
07:1250 years ago.
07:13So, all of this, we are preparing, we are getting war ready.
07:16That doesn't really mean we are going to war.
07:19So, there's a saying in the Indian Air Force, the more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed
07:23in war.
07:24This is learning how to operate in a war-like situation.
07:28Because civilians must know what they need to do.
07:31Soldiers know there are drills that they follow.
07:33There are standard operating procedures for soldiers to follow.
07:36These are standard operating procedures for civilians that they will hear of for the first
07:40time.
07:40The moment you heard the siren, where do you head to?
07:44The nearest, if there's a bunker in that area, if there's a metro station, head to that
07:48underground metro station.
07:50If there's a multi-storied building, head to the basement.
07:53That is how you're safe.
07:54If none of that's available, go to any place where you can keep yourself safe, you know,
07:59from shrapnel.
08:00Often what the Pakistanis do, or what is done in war, is use an air burst that, you know,
08:08a bomb explodes in the air and thousands of red hot pieces of metal come flying down
08:15at amazing velocity, you know, hundreds of kilometers per hour.
08:19And if they pierce your shoulder, your hands bone off, if they pierce your head, unfortunately
08:23you could be killed.
08:24So you should know where to cover yourself, where to hide till the time an all-clear air raid
08:30siren goes.
08:30You know, once again, I want to underline that.
08:33This is not an attempt to spread panic.
08:35This is not, we're not being alarmist at all.
08:37But there are generations in this country, Sandeep, that haven't really seen a war-like
08:41situation where India is concerned.
08:43The last time, and we can't reiterate enough, that sirens blared, blackouts happened, people
08:49looked for shelter, was in the year 1971.
08:52So all of this is just standard operating procedure if we ever enter a situation like this.
08:58Absolutely, Preeti, and you know, let's not forget that military people are trained,
09:02they drill, they know the drill, they know the SOPs, they know what to do if there's
09:06an air burst, as Gaurav mentioned, or if there's an air raid, they know how to take cover.
09:10But civilians don't know to do that.
09:12And as you said, it's been 50 years since Indian civilians have done these drills, at least
09:17in these large numbers.
09:19So what I call this is preparing themselves for any kind of eventuality.
09:25I would call it panic inoculation, Preeti.
09:27I mean, you're inoculating the general public, especially in those 240-odd districts.
09:32You're inoculating them against panic.
09:34So if, in case, God forbid, if there is an attack of this kind, let's not forget that
09:39we're facing a very unpredictable enemy.
09:42If there is an attack, if there's an air bust, if there's a missile attack, an air raid,
09:46any of that, the civilians, at least in all of these designated districts, know exactly
09:50what to do.
09:51They know the drill.
09:53They know how to take cover.
09:54They know which air raid shelter to go into, which bunker to go into, how to keep themselves
09:58safe.
09:59And most importantly, prevent panic.
10:02And that's exactly, you know, why these exercises are being followed across the country.
10:07Tomorrow is going to be a mock drill in various districts of the country across all states.
10:13This is just in preparation that we are war ready.
10:17We are definitely not in a war situation just yet or anywhere close to it.
10:22But once again, to give you perspective on why we are going through these security drills,
10:27why we are actually educating our citizens to, you know, take care of themselves, if we
10:33ever at all enter a war-like situation, these are the reasons.
10:37The last time the country was witness to this was 1971, the Indo-Park war 54 years ago.
11:04Not an attempt to spread panic, not to sound alarmist, but to be prepared.
11:14From air raid warning signs to blackouts and shelters, the mock drills will test operational
11:21efficacy in vulnerable districts and train the civilian population.
11:27Most of the present generation has never seen a war.
11:33And the exercise is meant to educate the masses of the utmost importance of wartime standard
11:42operating procedure.
11:45While India is clearly getting war ready, does it mean India could be headed to war?
11:53No, India is not officially going to war yet.
11:59But it is preparing for a possible military response.
12:04Here are the key indications that suggest in the aftermath of the Pehelgam terror attack,
12:10India may be preparing for military action, though not a full-scale war.
12:14India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty, a serious diplomatic signal.
12:22Pakistan has responded with military posturing and threats.
12:26Cross-border exchanges at the LOC have intensified.
12:30India has mobilized forces, but so far these remain defensive deployments.
12:35What government sources say, India pushing for never seen grave military action, but not a full-scale war.
12:45Any military action is likely to be targeted and limited.
12:49What has been the global response so far?
12:52Countries like US, France, Russia and even the United Nations have called for restraint.
12:59Where war is concerned, India has received immense diplomatic support.
13:04So if India is not looking at a full-scale war, then why are civil defence drills taking place across the country?
13:15Does India suspect a counter-retaliation by Pakistan after its own military action?
13:24Pakistan has already deemed the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty as an act of war.
13:30While India might be getting ready for a war-like scenario, it is still far from war.
13:38However, what is imminent is a confrontation with Pakistan.
13:43And it's coming soon.
13:45The next few days will be critical in shaping what happens next.
13:50Top story on To The Point this evening.
13:57So viewers, definitely not war, but what is imminent is a confrontation with Pakistan.
14:01The next few days will be critical is the information and responsible information that we want to give out.
14:07But having said that, tomorrow there will be civil defence drills, security drills across the country.
14:13I just want to take you through on what to expect, because you will be hearing sirens blare, where it comes down to various top cities.
14:21And the national capital would be right on top.
14:24So if you're in Delhi, even if you're in Mumbai, Amritsar, Chandigarh and Chennai, Jaipur.
14:30So all of these cities, tomorrow you will hear sirens.
14:34So do not panic.
14:36We don't want to be sounding alarmist at all.
14:38These are just preparations that we need to put in place just to be ready, just in case.
14:44Because like I pointed out, viewers, that generations in this country haven't witnessed a war-like situation.
14:50So it's always better to be equipped and safe to know exactly what you need to do.
14:55So keep an eye if you are in any of these cities.
14:58In all probability, you will hear sirens, you will have civil defence drills taking place across these cities.
15:06Be glued in on what you need to do as well.
15:09All right.
15:10I want to now take you through the nationwide civic defence drills, key ports and nuclear sites, where all it's going to take place.
15:18We're going to put it right behind me.
15:20And I want to introduce once again, I have with me Gaurav Savant, our managing editor, senior journalist.
15:26Sandeep Unithan is with me.
15:28We are also joined by Professor Brahma Chalani, who's a strategic affairs expert.
15:34I want to cut across to Gaurav first.
15:36Gaurav, once again, would you want to take us through all these areas, districts, cities that tomorrow will witness a mock security drill?
15:45So while there's an agreement between India and Pakistan that the nuclear installations will not be targeted,
15:49and both countries exchange lists every 1st of January of their nuclear power stations.
15:56But whether it's Ravar Bhata in Rajasthan or Kakerpur in Gujarat or Uran Port in Maharaj or Kalpakam in Tamil Nadu.
16:01What's the importance of all of these?
16:03There either are nuclear power stations or very important ports.
16:07You know, the nuclear power plants you see.
16:10So, Kakerpur, Gujarat, Ravar Bhata, Rajasthan, nuclear.
16:13You generate nuclear energy there.
16:16Across the country, these are Kalpakam, for example, or Tarapur and Maharashtra.
16:20Pakistan should not target that because, and similarly, we will not target them where their nuclear power plants are.
16:26That's an agreement.
16:27Should Pakistan violate it, it's a grave escalation.
16:30So there's going to be, tomorrow we're also going to see civil defense drills in all these areas.
16:34That's right.
16:35Border districts especially.
16:36Border districts especially.
16:38But beyond borders, even in depth areas, in built-up areas, these exercises happen.
16:42Sandeep, I want to bring you in.
16:43You know, the fact is, we're going through all of this.
16:45Now, this is, okay, standard operating procedure.
16:47We need to go through this, especially where our civilians are concerned.
16:51But why are we doing it?
16:52Because we are not in a war-like situation.
16:54It didn't happen during Kargil.
16:55It happened some 23 years ago in 1971.
16:58Why are we getting war ready when we're not near war right now?
17:01We're getting war ready.
17:03In fact, Priti, there's a very important point that you raised.
17:06This is something that we should have been doing as a matter of course for the last 50 years.
17:10We haven't been doing that now, despite all of those, you know, wars that we fought, border wars.
17:16Kargil, we fought, we saw deployment in Parakram.
17:20You know, despite all of that, we did not prepare our citizenry for this kind of an eventuality,
17:25that there could be a possibility of our unpredictable border adversary lobbying a missile or, you know, staging an airstrike or something of that sort.
17:35This is to prepare our population for that eventuality, that if it so happens, if Pakistan takes that extremely stupid step of attacking an Indian population area,
17:46this is to protect our civilians so that they know what to do, what the drill is.
17:50And this is something that most countries in the world do as a matter of course, especially countries that face imminent threats from nuclear-armed neighbors.
17:58We've seen that all through the Cold War. I've had friends who've lived through the Cold War in Europe and in the United States doing all of these drills on a regular basis.
18:06They didn't think much of it. But here we are today.
18:09It's up to 50 years.
18:10It's up to 50 years.
18:11There's a sense of panic.
18:12If I may, we actually had an ostrich-like attitude. We bury our head in sand and we think there is no threat.
18:18That's why there are no bunkers.
18:19And there is clear and present danger of Pakistanis who've bled us year after year.
18:24Take for example, as Sandeep and I were just discussing, 1993 blast, 257 people died.
18:29206 train attacks, 200 people died. 2611, 166 people died.
18:35So Pakistan continues to bleed you, but you think, oh, civilians are safe, nothing will happen.
18:39Civilians are being killed more than service personnel.
18:43Pakistan knows that, but it also knows that we don't wake up to the threat.
18:46Now finally, we are waking up to the threat.
18:48You know, but this is also slightly different because we are preparing for a war-like situation.
18:51I want to bring in Professor Brahmachalani into this conversation.
18:54Professor, could this also be a reason that, no, we are not getting into a war-like situation,
19:00but we are allowing and making our citizens get ready for a war-like situation because India is going to escalate.
19:06There will be, you know, some military action.
19:08Now, is this because India suspects that there could be a counter-retaliatory action from Pakistan,
19:15therefore keep your population and your citizenry ready?
19:18You're right.
19:19Conducting security drills is part and parcel of enhanced defenses because India doesn't face a normal state.
19:29Pakistan is not a normal state.
19:31It's a state that actually can be called a rogue state.
19:34It's a state where the military and the ISA agency are not accountable to the government in power.
19:41They've never been accountable to any civilian government.
19:44So, it's an abnormal state, a state whose very foundational basis is based on hatred toward India.
19:57And that state can do anything.
20:00And that's the reason why enhanced preparedness, including in the form of civil defense drills,
20:06is essential for strengthening India's defenses.
20:11All right.
20:14And, you know, so, Gaurav, you know, is that the main reason?
20:17Because the government response still now has been that it's going to be never seen like before action.
20:23But with what we are picking up from the government sources very clearly seems to suggest,
20:27it's going to be limited action.
20:29We are not getting into a war-like situation.
20:31There will be never seen before action, but it will be limited.
20:35Yet, we are preparing our citizens for what could be a retaliate reaction.
20:39So, when you look at Pakistan, you know, like Professor Brahmachalani and Sandeep were pointing out,
20:46abnormal state continues to bleed India.
20:48How do we react?
20:50Either we can do, we can open up the LC and keep firing artillery like was done in 2001-2002 and all along.
20:58And symbolically, your people are satisfied.
21:00Fine, some action has been taken, but you're not safe.
21:02You can do an Uri surgical strike.
21:04Yes, some message gone across, but you're not exactly safe.
21:07Or when, you know, after the parliament attack, you did the Operation Parakram.
21:11Ten months you were at borders, but no war.
21:13Sends across a message, but you're not safe.
21:16You do a balakot, rest of the country is safe, but not Jammu and Kashmir.
21:20That continues to bleed.
21:21So, now it has to be something more than balakot.
21:24Do keep in mind, Preeti, in this entire war matrix, there are 44 rungs of escalation.
21:30For these 44 rungs, we are on rung 3 right now.
21:34So, we are nowhere close to war right now?
21:36Now, we are nowhere close to a nuclear war.
21:38Pakistan just gives you…
21:39Okay, 44 is nuclear.
21:41And beyond, you know, and complete annihilation of people.
21:44But right now, we are on stage 3, where they've used non-state actors to bleed you.
21:48Your skirmishes have started…
21:49What stage is a full-fledged war?
21:50Stage 5 is full-fledged conventional war.
21:52So, we are two steps behind Sandeep from a full-fledged conventional war?
21:56It seems like, Preeti, and this is something that we'll have to judge by, A, how the government
22:03of India responds now to Pakistan's cross-border terror attack and whether there is going to
22:08be some kind of escalation dominance mechanism that's built into that kind of an attack.
22:13An escalation dominance mechanism would imply a strike that is so overwhelming that the
22:18adversary does not have a chance to retaliate to that.
22:20And that is something that we've done in 2016, we've done in 2019 as well.
22:24So, this is something that we'll have to watch out for.
22:27It all depends on what path the government of India chooses to strike at Pakistan.
22:32And that will determine the next rungs in the ladder that Gaurav just outlined.
22:37You know, I want to bring in Professor Brahmachalani back into this conversation.
22:40We're going to, you know, lose him in the next five minutes.
22:42He needs to go somewhere.
22:42But, Professor, to weigh in on this, India right now not looking at what is a full-fledged
22:48traditional war, far from it.
22:50But what India anticipates could be the counter-reaction to whatever India is planning.
22:58Well, a full-fledged war is not in the offing because there is no broad military mobilization
23:05in India, no movement of troops and heavy weaponry to the border.
23:09So, what we're looking at is a surgical option.
23:13A surgical option that is somewhat overwhelming and helps to impose deterrent costs on Pakistan.
23:23But I think one point that we need to bear in mind that under successive governments, as
23:29Gaurav was pointing out, India has faced major Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attacks.
23:35Yet, government after government has hesitated to impose tangible costs on Pakistan.
23:42So, the more powerful country, the more powerful country has behaved and acted, behaved and acted
23:50as if it's the weaker state vis-a-vis Pakistan.
23:54Imagine if Pakistan's power situation was equal to that of India.
24:01India.
24:02It would have inflicted far greater harm on India.
24:04But this weaker state, much smaller state, has been bleeding in there for decades now.
24:10And today, we are, you know, we should be asking a fundamental question.
24:15Whatever India does under Prime Minister Modi, will it represent a paradigm shift from the approach
24:21thus far?
24:23If it represents a paradigm shift, then, of course, this will mean a major challenge for Pakistan.
24:31But looking ahead, effectively countering Pakistan's decades-long cross-border terrorism requires
24:38a sustained, a sustained, coordinated, and multi-pronged strategy.
24:44What happens is that after every major attack, we have a debate.
24:48We debate what options India has, and then the government and the country go back to business
24:56as usual.
24:57This time, it has to change.
24:59This time, we have to recognize that the only way to fight Pakistan's terrorism is through
25:05a sustained, coordinated, and multi-pronged strategy.
25:08Instead of Pakistan bleeding India, we should start bleeding Pakistan now on a continuing basis.
25:14One quick question, Professor, before we let you go.
25:16So, this deterrence that you were speaking of, that India clearly needs to build with never
25:21seen before action, could possibly result in what we are actually preparing for now back
25:26home?
25:27Yes.
25:28You know, we are preparing to impose deterrent costs on Pakistan, costs that are so strong,
25:36so powerful, that we'll be able to buy peace for some time at least, if not forever.
25:43And to prepare, prepare for this scenario, we are building up international and diplomatic
25:54pressure on Pakistan.
25:55We are strengthening border security at the moment.
25:59We are engaging, as you have pointed out, civil defence drills as part of strengthened defences.
26:07And while maintaining strong military deterrence, we are planning targeted operations, operations
26:16that will rely on, that will rely on execution, that is done in such a way as to prevent major
26:30escalation.
26:31At the same time, we are also looking at COVID operations with plausible deniability, even
26:36as targeted strikes are being considered.
26:39All right, Professor, appreciate you joining us.
26:43Thank you there.
26:44Sandeep and Gaurav, I'll bring you back into this conversation.
26:46Sandeep, so one thing is very clear, because, you know, there is a sense of hyperbully and,
26:51you know, panic that we're looking to go into war.
26:54And maybe that's why all of this is happening, where the citizens are concerned.
26:57That needs to be laid to rest immediately, because we would have seen a very different, you know,
27:02scenario, indications would be different, like Professor said, the movement of troops
27:06and armoured tanks would be very, very different than what we are seeing now.
27:10So if we are going to be seeing a surgical strike, limited intervention, at what scale
27:16would it be larger than what we've seen before?
27:19It would possibly be multiple coordinated strikes, you know, Preeti.
27:24That's all I can decipher from, you know, the rhetoric of the leaders or our leaders
27:30over the last couple of days, where they've, you know, suggested that this would be very
27:34different from the last time, because this, the scale of this outrage was that civilians
27:39were targeted for the first time.
27:40After many, many years, you had civilians, they were segregated and they were brutally murdered.
27:45Their religion was asked and then they were targeted based on that.
27:48And this is a first time and the government of India is determined to make sure that this
27:53is going to be that one trigger point for us to basically target that terrorist infrastructure
28:00of Pakistan, that infrastructure of terrorism in Pakistan that exists under the shelter of
28:05the nuclear weapons that Pakistan has brandished against us for almost four decades now.
28:10So the government believes that this is possibly that one opportunity now to completely dismantle
28:16that and give us that lease of life for the next couple of years, at least as Professor
28:21Chalani was mentioning, that this could be now or never, literally.
28:24Okay, I need to go into a break, but we, you know, but viewers, with what Sandeep said,
28:28what Professor Ramachalani said and what Gaurav said, because you're dealing with a rogue
28:32nation, you don't know how they're going to respond.
28:34So even though you're not getting into a full-fledged war, where you're attacking their
28:37civilians, at least right now, that's what it seems to suggest, you don't know how Pakistan
28:41and the dispensation there is going to respond.
28:43So that is why, yes, quickly, quickly, the enemy cannot react just with words.
28:49He needs weapons, right?
28:50Does he have weapons?
28:51He sold off a lot of his weapons to Ukraine to make money.
28:55Can he buy new weapons?
28:56Can he sustain a war beyond four, five days?
28:59That's the big question.
29:00And you can sustain it for months.
29:01Remember 1971, India had nine months to prepare.
29:05We could take nine months right now.
29:06You know, Gaurav, with what we just spoke of,
29:09India might not want to go into a full-fledged war,
29:12but is India war ready is the big question.
29:16Look, India is preparing for
29:19a message that needs to be delivered to a radical Islamist state sponsor of terror.
29:22Pakistan, whatever way it needs to be done,
29:24whether it's done through an airstrike like in Balakot,
29:27through a surgical strike like in Uri,
29:29or ap ki baar nausena ka waar.
29:32Look at the amount of ships that we already have in the Arabian Sea.
29:36Look at our P-8Is, which are a long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft.
29:40It's like a flying frigate.
29:41It's like a flying warship.
29:43It can deliver anti-submarine warfare.
29:46It can target ships in the Arabian Sea.
29:48So nothing in Pakistan, nothing.
29:51Pakistan has about a 1,000 kilometer long coastline, very narrow.
29:54Sandeep can correct me if I'm wrong.
29:55It's about 1,045 kilometer long coastline,
29:58and it has just five major ports.
30:00You know, Gwadar and Karachi being the bigger one,
30:02Ormara and Pasni being the other ones,
30:05and a couple of others, right?
30:07India can, all of it is in India's crosshairs.
30:10All of it simultaneously, 0.1, 0.2.
30:13When the ships sail out into the Arabian Sea,
30:16the P-8Is, the sea guardians are drones,
30:19the U-cavs, the ships, the submarines.
30:22They can take Pakistan down worse,
30:23and Sandeep can tell you how Pakistan navy was destroyed in harbor,
30:28and barely at sea in 71.
30:31Pakistan needs to, you know, perhaps see 71.
30:34Sandeep, is India war ready vis-a-vis Pakistan?
30:36Because Pakistan is also preparing to go into war.
30:40Right.
30:41Preeti, well, India is war ready,
30:43but it is not planning a conventional military offensive.
30:46Which we said, yeah.
30:47Yes, not even like a cold start kind of general mobilization of the armed forces.
30:52What seems to be the case is that there possibly could be one or more surgical strikes.
30:57It could be delivered from the air.
30:59It could be delivered from the ground.
31:00It could be delivered from the sea or even under the sea.
31:03Or it could be a combination of all of these.
31:06So you're looking at creating an atmosphere of unpredictability.
31:10All of these movements by the military, by our military, the air force, the navy, the army,
31:16all of that, all of this is meant to create a fog of uncertainty.
31:22There is no war but the fog of war.
31:23There is a fog.
31:24There is a fog.
31:25It is some kind of a curtain that has been erected all around Pakistan.
31:31And through that curtain, the curtain of unpredictability,
31:36the actual strikes will come through.
31:38That is where we expect these multiple one or more or many strikes could converge onto Pakistan.
31:44You know, I'm going to go across to General Sharma.
31:46But General Sharma, just stay with me because India has fought five wars till now.
31:50Four of them have been with Pakistan.
31:52And viewers, in all four of them, Pakistan has walked off with a bloody nose.
31:57Take a look.
32:02While tensions escalate between India and Pakistan,
32:05one at the back of the Pahalgam terror attack and now an anticipated military retaliation by India.
32:12It is worth noting, India has fought five major wars since independence in 1947.
32:19Along with several smaller military operations and conflicts.
32:24And out of the five wars, four have been with Pakistan.
32:28Here is a breakdown.
32:321947-48. First Kashmir war.
32:36The cause. Pakistan-backed tribals infiltrated into Jammu and Kashmir post-partition.
32:41The result. Cease fire brokered by the UN.
32:45Kashmir divided between India, Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan.
32:49P.O.K. Pakistan occupied Kashmir.
32:55On 28th October, the raiders began to stream out of Baramullah towards Srinagar.
33:02At nine in the morning, when the first clashes took place,
33:06Lieutenant Colonel Ranjith Rai and his men were thoroughly outnumbered.
33:10The A and B Company of the 1-Sikh Regiment landed in Srinagar on the 28th afternoon and rushed to the aid of the defenders.
33:24By late evening, the situation had become critical for the Indians.
33:29The raiders had been beaten back time and again.
33:31But they regrouped and launched an all-out attack as the 1-Sikh Regiment made a fighting withdrawal towards Srinagar.
33:40Lieutenant Colonel Rai, who was supervising the withdrawal, fell in battle.
33:45One of the first martyrs to the war in Kashmir.
33:48The war in Kashmir.
33:541965, Second Kashmir War.
33:58Cause, Pakistan's Operation Gibraltar infiltration into Kashmir.
34:04Result, India had a decisive tactical upper hand.
34:07Tashkent Agreement signed under Soviet mediation.
34:101971, Indopark War and Bangladesh liberation.
34:19Cause, Pakistan's Crackdown in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh.
34:24India supported the Mukti Bahini.
34:28Result, decisive Indian victory over 90,000 Pakistan troops surrendered.
34:34Outcome, creation of Bangladesh.
34:38Similar agreement signed post the war.
34:41On 16th December 1971, at around 4.30pm Indian Standard Time,
34:48Lieutenant General Amir Abdullah Khan Niazi,
34:51Martial Law Administrator and Commander of the Eastern Command, Pakistan,
34:56attached his signature to a one-page document.
35:02A minute later, Lieutenant General Jagjit Singh Arora,
35:06General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the India and Bangladesh forces in the Eastern Theater,
35:12countersigned the instrument of surrender.
35:14A.A.K. Niazi signed the instrument of surrender and placed himself and...
35:191,500 kilometres away, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi announced in Parliament,
35:26India's final commitment to the people.
35:27A.K. Niazi is now the free capital of a free country.
35:321999, Kargil War.
35:35Cause, Pakistani soldiers and militants infiltrated into Indian positions in Kargil.
35:42India's response, Operation Vijay to reclaim occupied territory.
35:47Result, India regained lost ground.
35:50Global diplomatic support went to India.
35:53Pakistan faced international criticism.
35:55A.K. Niazi is now the first time of the war.
35:57Lieutenant Kalia and his patrol were captured and killed because they had seen the intruders.
36:02The Northern Light Infantry were taking no chances.
36:08While successive foot patrols and chopper reconnaissance by the Indian Army did find proof of incursions,
36:14it was not till the middle of May 1999 that the larger picture became clear.
36:19A.K. Niazi initially we thought it was just the infiltrators, the Mujahideen.
36:25But then, as you know, we started launching a series of probing attacks,
36:30we found that it was not the Mujahideen, it was the regular Pakistan Army.
36:38This was no ordinary infiltration, but a full-scale occupation.
36:44And the Indian Army needed to retake those positions with force.
36:49The ferocity of the Indian artillery response was unprecedented.
37:01No single piece of artillery proved more valuable in the assault
37:05than the Bofors FH-77B 155mm howitzer.
37:12Other conflicts and standoffs include 1984 Siachen conflict.
37:17India occupied key glacial positions in Operation Meghdoot to pre-empt Pakistan.
37:23Low-intensity conflict still continues.
37:292001 to 2002, parliament attack and the subsequent standoff.
37:34The Indian parliament was attacked by Pakistan-based terrorists Jaish-e-Mohammad.
37:39India mobilized troops in Operation Parakram.
37:44No war, but high alert lasted months.
37:482016, Uri attack and surgical strikes.
37:51Terror attack on Indian army camp in Uri, Jammu and Kashmir.
37:55India launched cross-border surgical strikes on terror camps.
37:592019, Pulwama attack and the Balakot airstrikes.
38:06Suicide bombing killed 40 CRPF personnel.
38:09India conducted airstrikes in Balakot.
38:12Aerial dogfight followed.
38:15Wing commander Abhinandan captured, later released.
38:18So that was Pulwama, viewers.
38:28What after Pehelgaam is the big question?
38:30Because with all that you have seen, the whole chronology of war and battles with Pakistan,
38:35Pakistan every time has walked off with a bloody nose.
38:39Things, many would suggest, are very different than there was a full-fledged conventional war in 1971.
38:45What is India planning? Let's cut across to Lieutenant General Sharma, who's with us,
38:49as well as Gaurav and Sandeep in the studio with me.
38:52General Sharma, you know, the whole chronology of India's conflict with Pakistan,
38:58every time India has walked away, you know, with the upper hand,
39:02even though Pakistan was the one who started it.
39:05This time around, you know, the last time India fought a conventional war was 1971.
39:10Things are very, very different. How would you gauge India's stand today?
39:15Thank you for inviting me and good seeing Gaurav and Sandeep today.
39:19Now, see, you missed out on Zulfikar Ali Bhutto saying in United Nations in 1965,
39:27that they will fight a 1,000-year war. You also missed out in this documentary about Bhutto saying
39:33that there will be war with 1,000 cuts which Ziaul Haq propelled. And this 1,000-year war and 1,000 cuts
39:40is what is being the war that is ongoing. So, the grammar of war doesn't include these five,
39:47six terrorist actions that you counted. It's a continuous war that is on for last 35 odd years.
39:54And, you know, there is no relenting on it. It is well planned. It is well orchestrated. And it
39:59does include part of some of these major incidents that have happened like,
40:04for example, the dastardly attack on Pahlkam. In last year, there was no attack of this kind,
40:10but the 127 casualties. So, you know, you can imagine that the war is on continuously, except that
40:16war is having two to three casualties at a time. So, they don't get added together to say a major war is
40:23on. But when you count it together over a period of time, in 2001, we had 4,000 casualties in one
40:29year. So, you know, there is this war of 1,000. And, you know, while we have been nice,
40:35and there have been great diplomatic niceties, there have been CBMs, there have been ways to
40:42improve relation, people-to-people contact. Even now, we have been allowing the patients to come
40:48for treatment to India, and people-to-people contact has been on. Despite all that is happening,
40:54this, or despite all niceties, Pakistan has not relented on this 1,000 cuts and 1,000-year war,
41:01because they find all these gestures that we make as a show of softness. So, you know,
41:08let's understand it, that whatever happens now, this war is going to continue for a longer time.
41:15What do we want now? You tell me, do we want retribution or do we want strategic deterrence?
41:23A strategic deterrence which will affect for a longer period of time. The previous two surgical
41:29strikes in Balakot did not provide a strategic deterrence. For a short while, there was a
41:34problem, but then, you know, the number of casualties happening in counter-terrorist operations
41:38continued in a similar manner after 2016 and 2019. We need to create a strategic deterrence,
41:45and that's the aim. And this here, I end by saying that grammar of war needs change. Grammar of war is
41:53not surgical strikes or a Balakot strike or minuscule action. We have to change the grammar of
42:00war, which actually includes IWT, which actually includes many other actions being taken, becomes
42:06a total grammar of war. War is not only Army, Navy and Air Force. And I'll end by saying war is still
42:14war, conventional war, force and force is yet not guaranteed that it's going to happen. It is just a
42:20possibility that it could happen like that. True, General. We're going to come right back to you.
42:24Gaurav, do you concur? Because I think India is already taking that stand to build that deterrence,
42:29and we can see that happening because the kind of international pressure India is trying to build
42:33to try and economically isolate Pakistan, and of course, the military and the diplomatic
42:38strikes that it's already contemplated. So, so far, the biggest action India has taken,
42:43and in the way perhaps some of us would look at it, only Prime Minister Narendra Modi could have done
42:49it, is Indus Waters Treaty, holding it in abeyance. Imagine even when 1971 was happening,
42:53you didn't hold it in abeyance, you didn't do it in 65, you didn't do it in Cargill,
42:58you didn't do it any other time, you've done it now. That's a huge signal. That is actually
43:03pressing Pakistan's jugular vein. You've pressed it, and now Pakistan knows. You know, they may
43:08admit it, they may not admit it. There are consequences for Pakistan in the short term,
43:12there are major consequences for Pakistan in the medium term, and it is a disaster if they continue
43:17in the long term. They are anyway a water-starved country, and now you're starving it, you know,
43:22even further, and not using water as a weapon. You're simply saying, we'll give you water,
43:27just stop shedding up blood. If he still wants to shed your blood, he can't expect your water.
43:32Sandeep, you know, would you reckon with the, you know, what Gaurav said, because Pakistan did
43:37admit it, because Pakistan called the abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty as an act of war,
43:43and how will a rogue state now react, especially after India answers back militarily?
43:50Yeah, well, Preeti, I want to first go back to what General Rakesh Sharma mentioned, the fact that
43:55the thousand-year war rhetoric that Pakistan has been talking about, I don't know about a thousand
43:59years, that's in the realm of fantasy, but we definitely have been facing a war from Pakistan
44:04for almost 80 years. You're looking at one of the world's longest periods of war, starting from 1947,
44:12where the Pakistan army does not reconcile to this reality of Kashmir, and they've been fighting
44:19wars using covert means. They used tribal raiders in 1947-48, funded and backed by the Pakistan
44:26military. The Pakistan army enters the picture. 65, a similar modus operandi of Gibraltar and Grand
44:33Slam. 71, they instigated war against India, and they lost Bangladesh. 99, they again used the 1965 and
44:411947 stratagem to infiltrate Northern Light Infantry into Cargill. At every point, they've been
44:49instigating conflict since 1947. So this is clearly, you're faced with a rogue army. And today,
44:56with General Asim Munir taking over, who sees himself as some kind of successor to General Zia,
45:01with a kind of obnoxious statements that he's making, we are truly faced with a very, very serious
45:08challenge. Because how Pakistan is now going to react, if whenever India strikes, is going to be
45:12very unpredictable. Absolutely. So, you know, Pakistan may be unpredictable. We have to be even more
45:18unpredictable. You know, can I tell you something about Pakistan army? It is the difference between
45:24Hafiz Saeed and Asim Munir is the fact that Asim Munir wears a uniform. Otherwise, they're exactly the same.
45:30The difference between Hafiz Saeed and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is that Bilawal Bhutto Zardari comes from a
45:39political family, but they speak exactly the same language. You know, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari in a very
45:44different manner. True. But he's saying exactly the same thing, that if water does not flow, blood will
45:49flow. That's Hafiz Saeed's language, but they speak the same language. The facade of civility was long
45:53shown, you know, because it is a wrong state. Look at the way the commentators are saying that Indian
45:57women, Indian actresses are Malay Ghanimat for them. So that is Pakistani civil society. They want to
46:03take Indian women as sex slaves after that war with India. So that is that radical Islamist mindset that
46:10Indians need to understand. It's a rogue radical Islamist terror state. I want to bring in General
46:15Sharma back into this conversation. General Sharma, till now, what India has approached been,
46:18off late, you know, the diplomatic sanctions that we've imposed, especially where, you know,
46:23Gaurav spoke about the Indus Water Treaty events. Is India on the right path? Are we looking at,
46:29you know, at least the trajectory we followed since Pehel Ghan? Because you did speak of,
46:33do we want retribution or do we want deterrence? Are we looking deliverance in terms of deterrence?
46:41Right. See, rightly so. If we want to do business well, we should seek strategic deterrence.
46:48Retribution will be automatic. Retribution has already been achieved by the waters of
46:53Chenab not reaching Marala headworks. You know, normally time 35 million Q6 of water reaches Marala
47:01headworks from Chenab every day. And now it has dropped down to 3000. So there is already a damage
47:07being done to Marala headworks, to the Kharif crops which require water now. So there is already a war on,
47:15a serious war on, especially along Chenab. Once we start doing work on Wooler Lake, well,
47:22then it will affect Jailam. So, you know, the work is on. The war is on in many ways and it's accepted like that.
47:27Now, I agree with what Gaurav is saying and what Sandeep was saying, but I like to add,
47:33as a military man, nobody likes a war. War is a senseless business and we should not allow an
47:39escalation to a full-fledged war and control the escalation as far as possible. But having said that,
47:45you know, never try and belittle your enemy. While the chief of army staff may be talking about
47:53rotten language, but Pakistan army per se is a trained army. They are well equipped. They
47:59also have collusion with China. China provides them a whole lot of satellite imagery and battlefield
48:05transparency they are providing and maybe a VAX and aircraft, etc, etc. So it's a professional army.
48:11When we go on war with Pakistan, it must be taken in that manner that they have the credible force.
48:19And now we have much larger conventional force. That's why he keeps talking tactical nuclear weapons
48:24because he knows overall he doesn't have the capability to sustain a war. But we must not write
48:30off and the opponent saying we can just sort it out. That's not the right way.
48:36Very credible point, General. Very credible point. And you know, nobody really wants war. And I think
48:40coming from an army veteran who's fought two wars, I can say that my father's done that in 65 and 71.
48:47But Sandeep, I want to bring you in on this with what the general also said. Do not underestimate
48:52Pakistan. And I think that would be very, very important. Absolutely. And that is something that
48:57we've learned to our great peril in 1998, when we went, when Prime Minister Vajpayee went on that Lahore
49:04bus yatra and he was stabbed in the back by the Pakistan state and General Parvez Musharraf, when they
49:09gave us Cargill in return for Lahore. When you have every few years, you have the Indian politician who
49:15comes wanting good relations with Pakistan, because that is who we are. Essentially, we want peace,
49:21we want stability, we want economic progress. But we are faced with an unrelenting, unyielding foe, who
49:28does not want peace, prosperity. He only wants your destruction. So that is what the Pakistan military
49:35embodies today. Right. You know, that's all the time we have for Gaurav. You wanted to come in.
49:38You have like 10 seconds. Yeah, just 10 seconds. You know, there are many ways to defeat Pakistan
49:42without fighting a full-fledged conventional war. And that is to break Pakistan army's back.
49:47They are a multi-billion dollar military, you know, business empire. You break down their
49:52business that army cannot fight. Which India started to do already. And Balochistan,
49:56they've got many fault lines. Just exploit those fault lines, that country will collapse.
50:01All right. Okay. You know, with that, that's the end of this particular broadcast. Thank you
50:04for our viewers for joining us. Once again, I want to make it clear, viewers, India is not going to war.
50:09So the sirens that you will hear tomorrow, the civil defense exercises that you see tomorrow
50:14are not to be, you know, it's not alarmist. It's not to create panic. It's just to educate you.
50:21Because viewers, there have been generations in this country that haven't seen a war-like situation.
50:26We are not in war, but we need to be prepared for one. That's it. We leave it at that. Thank you for joining us.
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