Here's when to expect the Fed's first interest rate cut

Investors are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in May.

Transcript

00:00With the May Fed meeting, you know, the Fed's come out and said, hey, we're waiting.

00:05We have to wait for a lot more data to come out to really make any type of decision.

00:13They have fully disclosed that they're not doing squatting.

00:18So wait for their rhetoric post their meeting and how they are looking at jobs numbers,

00:27how they're looking at inflation numbers.

00:31If we stay the course for the summer, I don't think the Fed really has anything to do until the fall, September, maybe November.

00:40But if unemployment really ticks up to, let's say, 4.7, 4.8 in the next few prints,

00:48they're going to start to get worried that tariffs are peering through to the employment numbers much quicker than they would have hoped.

00:59So they're not going to do anything in May, but call it September, sometime in the fall,

01:06we could see upwards of a 50, maybe even a 75 basis point cut if employment gets materially worse.