00:00Let's talk now to Afzal Ashraf, a Visiting Fellow in International Relations at Loughborough University in the UK.
00:05Welcome to the programme, good to see you.
00:08So how seriously should we be taking this threat of a possible military escalation in the region?
00:14Well, I think it's very credible, it's serious.
00:17Certainly the two countries involved have talked it up.
00:23The Pakistanis are convinced that an attack is due in 24 to 36 hours, and that statement was made yesterday.
00:31So we're looking at probably 12 hours, if that has any validity whatsoever.
00:36But yes, the rhetoric suggests that there will be some form of attack, almost certainly originating from India,
00:47as retaliation for what they perceive to be Pakistani-sponsored terrorism on their soil.
00:56And of course the Pakistanis have promised to respond in like,
01:00and so what we probably will get is a very quick escalation.
01:05Now this is on top of what is happening already, and that is cross-border firing and shooting across the line of control,
01:13which has happened in the past, and has just speeded up, if you like, over the last few days.
01:20So yes, I think it's a very serious, potentially very serious event.
01:26Certainly the United States has tried to say, verbally at least, that it should be dialed down,
01:33and the Vice President has asked both countries to dial down the rhetoric and avoid an escalation.
01:40And a dispute between India and Pakistan in this region is something that's flared up in different forms in the past, isn't it?
01:47How does what we're seeing now fit into that? How does it compare?
01:51Well, there's been two types of flare-ups.
01:53There have been the, if you like, all-out war flare-ups, which have occurred in 1965 and in 1971.
02:00One, there's been a sort of, a second type, which has been continuous battles in the glaciers that joined the two countries,
02:11which lasted many years, but which have abated.
02:17And then there's a third type, which is the odd response to terrorist attacks,
02:22and there have been two or three in the last couple of decades.
02:28And these have, so far, only involved an alleged Pakistani-sponsored attack with an Indian response,
02:36which has been described variously as strategic strikes and other ways.
02:42And Pakistan has attempted to neutralize those within certain limits.
02:49For example, in one instance, they shot down an Indian aircraft that was attempting to attack Pakistan,
02:57and this was resolved diplomatically with a pilot who, thankfully, was not killed, was returned in good order.
03:05So the indications are that this particular incident is going to lead to something far greater.
03:14And certainly many Pakistanis are suggesting, without providing any significant evidence,
03:21that this is a false flag operation intended to incite a war,
03:27intended to give India the opportunity to sever Pakistan, to deal it a mortal blow.
03:35Afzal, great to talk to you. Thank you very much indeed for coming on the programme.
03:38That's Afzal Ashraf, a Visiting Fellow at Loughborough University in the UK.
03:41Thank you very much.
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