- 5 months ago
The Real Reason Trump is Threatening to Seize Greenland
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00:00In early January, only weeks before Donald Trump assumed the American presidency,
00:04he held a press conference at his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida,
00:06during which he explicitly laid out his goals towards American territorial expansion during his second term in office.
00:12Trump claimed during this press conference without evidence that the Panama Canal was being operated by China,
00:17that it was a mistake to have ever given the canal to Panama in the first place,
00:20and that America needed the canal for economic security.
00:23Then he also said that the United States also needed the island of Greenland for national security purposes.
00:27Question Denmark's legal right to the territory,
00:30urge Denmark to give it up,
00:32and threaten to oppose crushing high-level tariffs on Denmark if they refuse to cooperate.
00:36And then, when responding to a question asked by a reporter at the conference,
00:39Trump very pointedly refused to rule out using the U.S. military to acquire either the Panama Canal from Panama
00:45or Greenland from Denmark through force if they refused to negotiate.
00:50And since then, these comments have sent shockwaves around the world,
00:53as everyone has attempted to answer just how serious Trump's comments were or weren't.
00:58The president of Panama has since insisted that every last square meter of the Panama Canal is Panamanian,
01:04and that control over it by anyone else is completely non-negotiable.
01:07While similarly, the prime ministers of both Denmark and Greenland have insisted that Greenland is not for sale to America.
01:14And in a more subtle refute of Trump's comments at Mar-a-Lago,
01:16the recently crowned Danish king Frederick X ordered a new update to the country's royal coat of arms
01:22that more heavily emphasizes the position of the polar bear in the lower left,
01:26which represents Greenland's status within the Danish kingdom.
01:29So far, the battle being fought over who should control Greenland between Denmark, America, or Greenland itself
01:35has been fully contained to chat rooms across the internet.
01:38But in order to understand the context behind Trump's comments toward Greenland,
01:42and what could actually end up happening regarding the territory,
01:44it helps to start with some history, and what makes Greenland so inherently valuable
01:49to the interests of the United States, regardless of who's actually in power.
01:54By this point, Trump himself has a long history of suggesting that America should acquire
01:58the world's largest island from Denmark,
02:00a territory that's roughly the same size as the whole of Western Europe.
02:04He first suggested that America should make an offer to purchase Greenland during his first term in office in 2019,
02:09which was politely but firmly rejected by the Danish government at the time,
02:13and only caused a light amount of tension between the two heavily allied governments.
02:17But America's interest in acquiring Greenland from Denmark goes back way further into the past
02:22than most Americans probably realize.
02:25Long before Donald Trump, while Denmark's roots in Greenland go even further back
02:29before the United States even existed as a country.
02:31The ancestors of today's Danes, the Vikings, discovered Greenland as an uninhabited island
02:36a very long time ago, sometime around the year 1000, and began settling it.
02:41But they eventually died out and abandoned Greenland around 450 years later, sometime around 1450.
02:46The ancestors of today's Inuit people in Greenland began arriving to the island
02:50around the same time as the Vikings were abandoning it.
02:53And then, three centuries later in 1721,
02:55Denmark began resettling Greenland again and incorporated the island as a colony of theirs.
02:59Greenland then continually remained as a colonial possession of Denmark for centuries,
03:05except for a brief period during World War II between 1941 and 1945,
03:09when Denmark itself in Europe was occupied by Nazi Germany,
03:12and the United States took it upon itself to militarily occupy Greenland
03:16to keep it out of Germany's hands.
03:18After the war ended, the United States turned Greenland's control back over to Denmark again,
03:23and Denmark further incorporated Greenland into their country
03:25by making the entire island a county of Denmark itself.
03:29By this point, the vast majority of Greenland's population were ethnically Inuit,
03:33and at the tail end of the decolonization era in 1979,
03:37Denmark finally granted Greenland its home rule and broad autonomy.
03:41Greenland gained its own separate parliament and full control over its own domestic affairs,
03:45including setting policy concerning any mining on the island,
03:49while Denmark still retained full control over Greenland's foreign and security policies
03:52without the need to consult the Greenlanders much themselves.
03:55Much later on in 2009, after voters approved a referendum in Greenland,
03:59the island and Denmark agreed on a new self-government act
04:02that provided a legal pathway for Greenland to eventually declare its independence from Denmark
04:06if they ever desire to do so.
04:08From then on through to the present day,
04:10Greenland has been permitted to host a referendum on ultimate independence from Denmark,
04:13that if passed by a majority of its voters,
04:15would then need to be approved by the Danish parliament.
04:18Now, throughout the past 300-plus years of Denmark's evolving level of control over Greenland since 1721,
04:24the United States has also frequently expressed its own interest in acquiring the territory for themselves.
04:30The US, of course, has established a very long history of expanding its territory in the Americas and beyond
04:35through purchasing new lands from other countries at often highly opportunistic times.
04:40The country purchased the enormous Louisiana territory from France in 1803
04:44at a time when Napoleon feared losing the territory to the British
04:47and needed money to fund his wars in Europe.
04:49The US purchased Florida from Spain in 1819
04:52after the territory had become a financial burden on the Spanish.
04:55It forced Mexico into ceding over more than half of their country's territory in 1848
04:59for a bargain bin price after subjugating them during the Mexican-American War.
05:03And then the US further purchased what's today's southern New Mexico and Arizona from Mexico in 1854
05:09as the country faced another potential American invasion
05:12and decided to sell the territory rather than fight again.
05:15In 1867, just after the US Civil War,
05:17the US purchased the Alaska territory from Russia at a time
05:20when the Russians feared losing the territory to the British coming from Canada during a potential war.
05:24And it was around this same time that Greenland also first registered
05:28as an official acquisition interest in Washington.
05:31The US Secretary of State at the time of the Alaska purchase
05:33William H. Seward also commissioned a report on the benefits
05:36that could be had by an American purchase of Greenland from Denmark.
05:40The report concluded that an American acquisition of both Alaska from Russia
05:43and Greenland from Denmark would be advantageous
05:46because it would apply pressure on the Canadians wedged in between them
05:49to eventually join the United States as well.
05:52So the following year in 1868,
05:54Seward entered into negotiations with Denmark to purchase both Greenland and even Iceland as well.
05:59But in the end, Seward never ended up making an official offer to the Danes at the time
06:03because the US Congress had just rejected another treaty he had sponsored
06:07to purchase the Danish West Indies in the Caribbean.
06:09And after that, he figured they would reject an acquisition of Greenland and Iceland as well
06:13and the idea was dropped.
06:15After that, the US forced Spain into selling the Philippines to them in 1898
06:19after defeating them in a war.
06:20And they, of course, pressured Panama into selling them the Panama Canal Zone concession a few years later in 1903.
06:26After that acquisition, the US interest in further acquiring the Danish West Indies and the Caribbean
06:32increased significantly because they feared that the islands could potentially come under the control
06:36of Imperial Germany instead of Denmark,
06:39who could use them as a naval base to threaten America's access to the Panama Canal during a wartime scenario.
06:44And so, in 1910, the then-US ambassador to Denmark suggested a bizarre and complicated scheme to Danish officials
06:51in which the US would trade the major Philippine islands of Mindanao and Palawan to Denmark
06:57in exchange for both the Danish West Indies and Greenland.
07:01Then, Denmark would be able to trade the Philippine islands to Germany
07:04in exchange for northern Schleswig in Europe,
07:06which at the time was a Danish-majority territory that was controlled by Germany.
07:10The offer appears to have never been seriously considered by the Danish side, though.
07:14And it became a moot point following World War I anyway
07:16after Germany was forced into just ceding northern Schleswig to Denmark.
07:20Nonetheless, the United States continued to remain interested
07:23in acquiring the Danish West Indies and Greenland.
07:25And in 1916, Denmark expressed that it would be willing to sell the Danish West Indies to America
07:30in exchange for the US recognizing Denmark's claim to the entirety of Greenland.
07:35The US ultimately agreed with this position
07:37and purchased the Danish West Indies the following year in 1917,
07:41which then became the US Virgin Islands,
07:43and the US also extended their formal recognition of Greenland as a territory of Denmark.
07:48During the Second World War,
07:49the US military stepped in to temporarily occupy Greenland between 1941 and 1945
07:53to prevent it from falling into the hands of the Nazis.
07:57But as the world began moving into the new era of the Cold War,
08:00America's interest in Greenland became much, much more intense than it had ever been before.
08:04Greenland, you see, sits about precisely in the geographical dead center
08:08between Washington, D.C. and Moscow.
08:11And so it sits directly along the shortest possible flight path
08:13between the United States and the former Soviet Union.
08:16America now wanted control over Greenland for its security and military applications
08:20because it could enable US bombers and missiles stationed there
08:24to most rapidly attack the Soviet Union.
08:27While it could also serve as America's front line of defense
08:29for detecting a Soviet aerial attack launched against the US mainland.
08:32Because of these applications,
08:34the US considered Greenland to be of enormous geopolitical importance
08:38at the beginning of the Cold War.
08:40And so in 1946,
08:41the US government secretly offered Denmark $100 million in gold bullion,
08:46or about $1 billion in today's money for the purchase of Greenland.
08:50The US argued to Danish authorities at the time,
08:53as they similarly do today,
08:55that a sale of the territory to the United States
08:57would actually benefit Denmark as well,
08:59because it would prevent any criticism of US military bases being present on Danish soil,
09:04while it would also save Denmark from the costs of having to subsidize Greenland themselves.
09:09But the Danish foreign minister at the time rejected the offer,
09:12saying that while his country owed the Americans a great deal
09:14for their assistance during the Second World War,
09:17he felt that they didn't owe them the entire island of Greenland.
09:20But while Denmark didn't agree to sell Greenland to the Americans,
09:23they still recognized how important the territory was to them
09:26and essentially allowed the Americans to use Greenland for everything they actually wanted.
09:30Denmark and the US both became founding members of the NATO alliance in 1949.
09:35And in 1951,
09:36the two countries agreed on a treaty that allowed the US
09:38to build a massive new air force base in the far northwest of the island
09:42that became known as Thule Air Base.
09:44Thule then became one of America's most important overseas military bases during the Cold War.
09:49It enabled US reconnaissance aircraft a base
09:51to spy on the Northern Soviet Union from.
09:53It also became a base from which American nuclear-armed strategic bombers
09:56could use to threaten the Soviet Union from.
09:59And early warning radar systems set up there
10:01enabled America to detect any potential nuclear-armed ICBMs
10:04that the Soviets fired over the Arctic Circle towards the US mainland.
10:08Greenland also became a major strategic component
10:10in America's Cold War naval strategy as well.
10:13The Soviet strategic nuclear submarine fleet
10:15based itself in the far northern port of Mermansk,
10:18meaning that if they sorted out from port towards the US east coast,
10:22they would have to pass through the bodies of water
10:24between the UK, Iceland, and Greenland in order to do so,
10:27which became known as the GI-UK gap.
10:29Ensuring that the GI-UK gap remained closed
10:31during a potential hot war with the Soviet Union
10:34became a top military priority for the US in the Cold War,
10:37and it ensured America's continued interest
10:39in having at least some kind of military presence in Greenland.
10:43After the Cold War ended in the early 1990s, though,
10:45America's interest in Greenland dramatically plummeted
10:48for around 20 years as relations with Russia
10:50entered into a new, initially warmer phase.
10:53America's military presence and activity in Thule significantly decreased.
10:57But then, several compounding factors in the 2010s and the 2020s
11:01reignited America's long interest in Greenland once again.
11:04A renewed confrontational relationship began emerging
11:07between America and Russia again
11:08after Russia seized control over Crimea in 2014,
11:11and especially after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine
11:15in early 2022 that continues to this day.
11:18Russia began heavily remilitarizing their dormant Soviet-era naval bases in the Arctic,
11:22to the point where they now significantly outnumber
11:24the number of NATO bases in the Arctic,
11:26while the Russian North Sea fleet homeported in Mermansk
11:29remained the crown jewel and the nerve center
11:31of Russia's strategic nuclear submarine deterrent force.
11:35America's long interest in Greenland from a defense perspective
11:38became reinforced,
11:40but new interests and concerns developed as well.
11:42America's interest in defending the GI-UK gap
11:45is increased in the modern world of the internet,
11:47and the valuable underwater high-speed cables
11:49that connect the world together in the digital realm.
11:52Two of these critically important underwater cables
11:54pass right by Greenland today.
11:56The Far North Fiber Cable that provides
11:57the quickest direct internet connection between Japan and Europe,
12:01and the Leif Erikson Cable that provides
12:02the quickest direct internet connection between Canada and Scandinavia.
12:06Moreover, if Russian submarines were able to pass through
12:08the GI-UK gap undetected today,
12:10and advanced further into the North Atlantic,
12:13they could threaten to sabotage the numerous high-speed internet cables
12:16that connect the United States to Europe,
12:18a risk that could compromise the delivery of information
12:20from America to Europe long enough
12:22to briefly paralyze U.S. military forces in Europe
12:25during a Russian attack on, say, the Baltic states.
12:28As recently as 2020,
12:30Reuters described Greenland as a security black hole
12:33for the United States and its allies,
12:35reporting that its nearly 27,000 miles
12:38of largely uninhabited coastline
12:40was exceedingly difficult to properly monitor,
12:43especially for a small country like Denmark,
12:45who spent decades under spending on their own defense.
12:48Since the end of the Cold War,
12:50Denmark continually spent less than 2%
12:52of their GDP on defense for decades,
12:55until the Russian invasion of Ukraine
12:57sparked them to finally raise it back to more than 2% by 2023.
13:01After granting Greenland their home rule in 1979,
13:04Denmark has still remained ultimately responsible
13:06for Greenland's defense,
13:08but has been a very, very small force.
13:11As recently as 2020,
13:12Denmark only had four patrol ships,
13:14four helicopters,
13:15one single maritime patrol aircraft,
13:18and six dog sled teams assigned to the whole of Greenland
13:21to patrol and defend an area
13:23that's roughly the size of Western Europe.
13:25Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
13:27the U.S. government has repeatedly demanded
13:29that Denmark improve their aerial surveillance capabilities
13:31over Greenland,
13:32and a study in 2022 by the U.S.-based RAND Corporation
13:36suggested then that integrating Greenland
13:38into the coverage of the North American Aerospace Defense Command,
13:41or NORAD,
13:42would help to mitigate this.
13:44The old American airbase at Thule
13:45has since been transformed into a U.S. Space Force base
13:47that's now known as Patufik Space Base,
13:50and it's also only grown in importance
13:51to the U.S. military's strategic planning.
13:53The U.S. military now operates
13:55several polar orbiting communications,
13:57whether in imaging satellites
13:58that cover the Northern Hemisphere.
13:59And these satellites require a station
14:01that's down on the ground
14:02within the Arctic Circle
14:03for their consistent tracking, telemetry, and control.
14:06And today,
14:06the only two polar satellite operations facilities
14:09that the United States controls
14:10are Patufik in Greenland
14:11and clear in central Alaska.
14:13Thus,
14:14if the U.S. lost control over Patufik
14:15for whatever reason today,
14:17like, say,
14:18in the event of Greenland
14:18becoming independent from Denmark
14:20and then just telling the U.S. to leave,
14:22America would be forced
14:23to rely exclusively on their base in Alaska
14:25for their continued polar satellite operations,
14:28which would leave the military
14:29with zero redundancy
14:30and fallback options to rely upon.
14:32But again,
14:33Denmark was still giving the U.S. military
14:35everything that it asked of it
14:36concerning Greenland
14:37and remained a steadfast American ally
14:39with its own understandable interests
14:41in Greenland as well.
14:42Denmark honored America's call to war
14:44in both Afghanistan and Iraq
14:46following the 9-11 attacks,
14:48and they lost 43 of their soldiers in Afghanistan,
14:51a higher loss per capita
14:52than any other member of the coalition suffered there,
14:54while seven more Danish soldiers
14:56were also killed in Iraq.
14:57Denmark's geography itself
14:58is also extremely important
15:00for the confrontation with Russia
15:02because Denmark controls the gates
15:04between the North Sea and the Baltic
15:05and is better positioned than anyone else
15:07to bottle up the Russian Baltic sea fleet
15:09within the Baltic,
15:10especially with their competent
15:11and capable Navy and Air Force
15:13that's acquired dozens of modern F-35 fighter jets
15:16from the United States.
15:17Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
15:19Denmark has also donated
15:20more than 7.1 billion euros
15:22of direct military aid to the Ukrainians,
15:25including the transfer
15:26of their entire arsenal of artillery shells
15:28and 19 of their F-16 fighter jets,
15:31making them among the highest per capita contributors
15:33to the Ukrainian war effort as well.
15:36Denmark's continued control over Greenland
15:37is important to them
15:38not only because they have
15:39more than 300 years
15:40of continuous history there by now,
15:42but also because Greenland
15:43makes otherwise small Denmark
15:45about 50 times larger
15:46than it otherwise would be.
15:48While it also grants Denmark
15:49and by extension the European Union
15:51their only coastline in the Arctic as well,
15:53which gives Denmark and the EU
15:55both a great deal of say
15:56on what actually goes on in the Arctic.
15:59Greenland is also the basis
16:00of Denmark's current sovereignty claim
16:02to the geographic North Pole,
16:04which is only rivaled
16:05by the much larger Arctic nations
16:07of Canada and Russia.
16:08And all of these nations
16:09overlapping claims to the North Pole
16:10matters a whole hell of a lot more
16:12than simply boosting national pride and ego.
16:15As climate change continues to accelerate
16:17throughout the century,
16:18the permanent layer of sea ice
16:20that's covered the Arctic
16:20for all of human history
16:22will progressively shrink in size enough
16:24to the point where cargo ships
16:25will eventually be able
16:26to regularly traverse through it,
16:28especially with the help
16:30of nuclear-powered icebreakers.
16:32Greenland is geographically well-placed
16:34between the Northwest Passage
16:35through Canada
16:36and the Northern Sea Route
16:37to Long Russia,
16:38both of which should be largely opened up
16:40to large-scale maritime traffic
16:41through most of the year
16:42just by next decade.
16:44Even better for who ends up
16:45controlling Greenland in the future,
16:47the island's eastern shore
16:48sit directly along the proposed
16:50trans-polar sea route,
16:51which runs directly
16:52through the center of the North Pole.
16:54So far,
16:55the trans-polar sea route
16:56has been impossible to use
16:58for large-scale maritime shipping
16:59because the center of the Arctic
17:00has been permanently covered
17:02by thick sea ice,
17:03including during the summer.
17:05But some analysts believe
17:06that by around the year 2050,
17:08the Arctic sea ice
17:09will have retreated enough
17:10to make even the trans-polar sea route
17:12actually viable to use
17:13by the maritime shipping industry,
17:15which will change the way
17:16that the world trades forever
17:18because it will become
17:18the new shortest maritime trade route
17:20between both Asia and Europe
17:22and between Asia
17:23and the eastern side
17:24of the Americas,
17:25saving thousands of kilometers
17:26of distance
17:27and huge amounts of money
17:28over the current trade routes
17:29through the Suez
17:30and Panama canals.
17:31And whoever ends up
17:32controlling Greenland
17:33will have the best
17:34geographic positioning possible
17:36to extend their own control
17:37and influence
17:38over this new trade route
17:39that will probably become
17:40even more valuable
17:41than the Suez Canal
17:42in the not-too-distant future.
17:44And beyond the future
17:45valuable trade routes
17:46running by Greenland
17:47that everyone's interested in,
17:48there's also the well-known
17:49treasure trove
17:50of Greenland's
17:51incredibly valuable
17:52mineral resources
17:53that everyone wants
17:54some kind of access to as well.
17:56The U.S. Geological Survey
17:57maintains a list
17:58of 50 mineral commodities
17:59that are critical
18:00to the U.S. economy
18:01and national security.
18:03At the present,
18:03roughly half of these
18:04critical minerals
18:05have their production
18:06dominated by China,
18:07including very key minerals
18:09that are important
18:09for modern technologies
18:10like gallium and germanium
18:12used in semiconductors,
18:14and graphite
18:14that's used in electric vehicles,
18:16batteries,
18:16and nuclear reactors.
18:18In total,
18:18according to a 2023 report
18:20by the Brookings Institution,
18:21roughly 60%
18:22of all the world's
18:23so-called rare earth elements
18:25that are critical
18:25for military technology
18:26and the green energy transition
18:28are currently being produced
18:29by China,
18:30while 85%
18:31of the world's
18:32rare earth processing
18:33is also done in China too,
18:35giving China
18:35a virtual monopoly
18:37on the supply chain
18:38of the raw materials
18:39that are critical
18:39for building the future
18:41and maintaining
18:41a technological military edge.
18:43But it's well known
18:44by this point
18:45that the largest supply
18:46of rare earth elements
18:47and critical minerals
18:48anywhere outside of China
18:50are just sitting there
18:51almost completely untapped
18:52by anybody in Greenland.
18:54When combining
18:54the already known
18:55and discovered deposits
18:56in the south
18:57and the east of Greenland,
18:58the island is known
18:59to be home to reserves
19:00of 43 out of 50
19:01of the US government's
19:02critical minerals list.
19:04Among those minerals
19:05include probable
19:06world-leading
19:07massive deposits
19:08of both graphite
19:09and lithium,
19:10which are both critical
19:10to the production
19:11of electric vehicles.
19:12The production
19:13of both graphite
19:14and lithium
19:14are currently dominated
19:16by countries
19:16that are distinctly
19:17not the United States
19:18or Europe,
19:20with China producing
19:2077% of the world's graphite
19:22and Australia and Chile
19:23producing nearly 80%
19:25of the world's lithium.
19:26Whoever ends up controlling
19:27and exploiting
19:28Greenland's graphite
19:29and lithium reserves
19:30will suddenly make themselves
19:31a world leader
19:32in both resources
19:33and they'll secure
19:34a critical component
19:36of the global electric vehicle
19:37production supply chain,
19:38which probably on its own
19:39explains a great deal
19:41of Elon Musk's
19:42and Donald Trump's
19:42interest in Greenland.
19:44But beyond the graphite
19:44and lithium,
19:45Greenland is believed
19:46to also contain
19:47enormous deposits
19:48of other critical minerals too,
19:50like neodymium
19:50that's used for magnets
19:51and electric motors,
19:53terbium that's used
19:54for magnets and tanks,
19:55molybdenum that strengthens
19:56steel necessary
19:57for offshore wind farms,
19:59along with critical base metals
20:00like cobalt,
20:01copper,
20:01iron,
20:02zinc,
20:02and nickel
20:02that are used
20:03for all sorts of things.
20:05One single known deposit
20:06of uranium
20:07in Kavanaugh Field
20:08in the far south of Greenland
20:09is believed to be
20:10the sixth largest uranium deposit
20:12ever discovered
20:13in the entire world,
20:14and it alone contains
20:15more uranium
20:16than has been discovered
20:17in the entire United States.
20:19And beyond minerals,
20:21Greenland is also believed
20:22to contain large amounts
20:23of oil and gas as well.
20:25An estimate
20:25from the U.S.
20:26Geological Survey in 2008
20:27suggested that
20:28untapped wells
20:29off the coast of Greenland
20:30could produce
20:31about 52 billion barrels
20:33of oil,
20:33which if accurate,
20:34would be equivalent
20:35to about 3%
20:36of all the world's
20:37proven reserves
20:38of oil currently.
20:39And it would place
20:40Greenland within
20:40the top 10 countries
20:41worldwide by oil reserves,
20:44roughly equivalent
20:44to the status of Libya.
20:46If they were hypothetically
20:47acquired by the U.S.,
20:48they would dramatically
20:49increase the country's
20:50total oil reserves
20:51into sixth place globally,
20:53with nearly half
20:54the total reserves
20:55of the oil giant
20:56Saudi Arabia.
20:58Now, historically,
20:59despite Greenland
21:00having a veritable
21:01motherload of resources,
21:03they've been extremely
21:03difficult to access
21:04and exploit.
21:06Greenland's terrain
21:06and environment
21:07is extremely harsh.
21:09About four-fifths
21:10of the entire island
21:11is covered by
21:12a permanent thick ice sheet
21:13that reaches up to
21:14three kilometers thick
21:15in the interior
21:16of the island.
21:17The population base
21:17of Greenland today
21:18is also very,
21:19very small
21:20despite its size.
21:22There's only about
21:2256,000 people
21:24who actually live
21:24in Greenland,
21:25and they're scattered
21:26all around the island
21:27in several small towns,
21:28none of which are
21:29actually connected
21:30to each other by roads.
21:31The only way to travel
21:32between Greenland's
21:33towns is by flying
21:34between them,
21:35sailing between them,
21:36or sometimes taking
21:36a snowmobile or
21:37dog sled team
21:38between them.
21:39Across an area
21:39that's the size
21:40of Western Europe.
21:41Building out the
21:42required infrastructure
21:43across Greenland
21:44to actually access
21:44and mine the island's
21:46resources at scale
21:47would be incredibly
21:48expensive,
21:49while none of the
21:50ports on the island
21:51remain ice-free
21:52for longer than a couple
21:53months out of the year
21:53either,
21:54meaning that the island's
21:55maritime exports
21:56would require icebreakers
21:58that would increase
21:59the cost of development
21:59even further.
22:01But as the world
22:01has grown increasingly
22:02interested in the
22:03sheer scale of the
22:04wealth of Greenland's
22:05resources,
22:06the pace of mining
22:07there has steadily
22:08increased.
22:09Only a decade ago
22:10in the mid-2010s,
22:12there were just 12
22:12exploratory sites
22:14across the island
22:14where firms were
22:15drilling for resources
22:16at.
22:17Today, there's around
22:17170 exploration sites
22:19where drilling is
22:20currently taking place.
22:22But there's also
22:22only one single
22:23active mine on the
22:25entire island
22:25for the moment.
22:27And that's where
22:27Greenland's current
22:28problems begin.
22:29Because Greenland
22:30has such a small
22:31population and
22:32virtually no
22:32industries to speak
22:33of, the availability
22:34of capital in the
22:35island is naturally
22:36going to be extremely
22:37small until they can
22:38actually get large-scale
22:39mining going off the
22:40ground.
22:41But in order to do
22:42that, they need a huge
22:43amount of capital to
22:44get the required
22:44infrastructure into place
22:46that they don't have
22:47and will never have on
22:48their own.
22:49This means that
22:49Greenland needs to
22:50acquire a lot of
22:51foreign investment in
22:52order to get their
22:53mining operations
22:54kick-started.
22:55And it also means that
22:56historically, Greenland
22:57has needed to be
22:58supported and subsidized
22:59by someone from the
23:00outside in order to
23:01survive.
23:02Denmark, who still
23:03ultimately controls
23:03Greenland, has always
23:04filled that role for
23:05now.
23:06The Danish state
23:06provides roughly
23:07$500 million to
23:09Greenland per year
23:09worth of subsidies,
23:11which accounts for
23:11roughly 20% of the
23:13island's total GDP
23:14and more than half
23:15of the Greenlandic
23:15government's budget
23:16that finances the
23:17territory's employment,
23:18education, and
23:19healthcare services.
23:21Greenland is therefore
23:21highly dependent on
23:23Denmark right now and
23:24their subsidies to
23:25survive.
23:26Despite most
23:27Greenlanders desiring
23:27their independence from
23:28Denmark today, based
23:30on the most recent
23:30opinion poll from
23:312019, roughly two
23:33thirds of the small
23:34population in Greenland
23:35support their
23:35independence from
23:36Denmark, and tensions
23:37between Denmark and
23:38Greenland had already
23:39been growing in the
23:40years leading up to
23:41Trump's recent comments.
23:43During the colonial
23:43era after World War II
23:45when Greenland was a
23:46direct county of
23:46Denmark's, the Danish
23:48authorities pursued a
23:49policy of what they
23:49called modernization in
23:51the territory that has
23:52been increasingly coming
23:53under higher scrutiny
23:54recently.
23:55In the 1950s, 22
23:57Inuit children in
23:58Greenland were taken
23:59from their families to
24:00Denmark to be raised as
24:01Danes, and then
24:03returned back to
24:03Greenland with the
24:04goal of fostering
24:05closer cultural ties.
24:07A few years ago in
24:082022, the Danish
24:09government formally
24:10apologized to six of
24:11those 22 children who
24:13were still alive, just
24:14before another colonial
24:16era scandal came
24:16roaring back to the
24:17forefront of
24:18Greenlandic politics.
24:20During the 1960s and
24:2170s, the Danish
24:22government carried out a
24:23birth control program in
24:24Greenland where
24:25thousands of Inuit
24:26women and girls had
24:27IUDs inserted, in
24:28many cases against
24:29their consent.
24:31The Danish government
24:31stated that the
24:32program was to
24:33control Greenland's
24:34birth rate and to
24:34prevent unplanned
24:35pregnancies and costs,
24:37and it was ultimately
24:38successful in having the
24:39birth rate in Greenland
24:40within just a few years.
24:42However, several Inuit
24:43Greenlandic politicians
24:44have recently accused the
24:45program as having
24:46amounted to a genocide
24:47of their people,
24:49including the current
24:50serving prime minister of
24:51Greenland, who directly
24:52called it a genocide
24:53during an interview as
24:54recently as December of
24:562024.
24:57In 2023, Denmark decided
24:59to hold a two-year
25:00public investigation into
25:01the birth control
25:02program that's brought
25:03the painful scars of
25:04the colonial past in
25:05Greenland into the
25:06forefront of the
25:07island's politics.
25:0967 Greenlandic women
25:10have sued the Danish
25:11government as a part of
25:12the investigation, who
25:13say that they had IUDs
25:15inserted to control their
25:16pregnancies against their
25:17wills, and the overall
25:19investigation is set to
25:20conclude at some point
25:21this year in 2025.
25:23This whole investigation
25:24within the small
25:25community of just 56,000
25:26people in Greenland has
25:28almost certainly
25:28contributed to a greater
25:30shift to the island's
25:30desire for independence
25:32from Denmark, led by a
25:33prime minister who is
25:34already very pro-
25:35independence.
25:36At a press conference on
25:37the 10th of January,
25:38after Trump's comments,
25:40Greenland's prime minister
25:41plainly stated, quote,
25:43We don't want to be
25:44Danes.
25:45We don't want to be
25:45Americans.
25:46We want to be
25:47Greenlanders.
25:48End quote.
25:49Greenland's next elections
25:50are coming up soon, and
25:52with the ongoing investigation
25:53into the colonial era
25:54birth control scandal, the
25:56topic of independence from
25:57Denmark was already going
25:58to be the front and center
25:59issue, and now Trump's
26:01comments about purchasing
26:02or acquiring Greenland have
26:03effectively thrown gasoline
26:05onto the pro-independence
26:06flames that were already
26:07burning there, whether Trump
26:09intended to do that or not.
26:11There are many people in
26:12Greenland who now see the
26:13value in playing Denmark and
26:14the United States off of one
26:15another, and as Greenland
26:17becomes increasingly important
26:18geopolitically in the 21st
26:20century, many Greenlanders
26:21want their final independence
26:22so that they can pursue their
26:24own foreign policy and
26:25diplomacy separate from
26:26Denmark so that they can
26:27enter into their own deals
26:28with whoever they want.
26:30Greenland has the legal
26:31pathway to independence
26:32through holding a
26:33referendum, while other
26:34international law scholars
26:35have suggested that due to
26:37Greenland's prior status as a
26:38colony of Denmark's, they also
26:40possess the legal right to
26:41self-determination under the
26:42UN Charter, and could
26:44unilaterally declare their
26:45independence as well without
26:46asking the approval of the
26:47Danish parliament at all.
26:49The big issue is what would
26:50happen next.
26:52Without Denmark's annual
26:53subsidies, Greenland would
26:54immediately lose 20% of their
26:56GDP and half of their
26:57government's operating budget.
26:59Denmark and Greenland
27:00currently have an arrangement
27:01where if mining operations
27:02in Greenland start really
27:03kicking off, the royalties
27:05that'll be paid out to
27:06Greenland by the mining
27:07companies will be offset by
27:08reductions in Denmark's
27:10annual subsidies, which has
27:11always reduced the incentive in
27:13Greenland to actually speed up
27:15their mining operations.
27:16Because Denmark will reduce
27:18their subsidies as mining
27:19royalties increase, most
27:21analysts expect that Greenland
27:22wouldn't see any economic
27:23benefits to large-scale mining
27:25operations until around 20
27:27years after they start.
27:29Which kind of de-incentivizes
27:30them from really ever starting
27:32and incentivizes them to just
27:33stick with Denmark's subsidies
27:34and Denmark's political
27:36control instead.
27:37Undoubtedly much to the
27:38preference of Denmark.
27:40Problematically for Greenland,
27:41even if they did get mining
27:43operations going in the country
27:44with the help of foreign
27:45investment, there's no clear
27:46way that it would ever benefit
27:48local Greenlanders beyond the
27:49direct government royalties.
27:51You see, in healthy mining
27:52economies, mining operations will
27:54buy their equipment from local
27:55companies and will process their
27:57ores with local companies, which
27:59will spur on wider local economic
28:01activity as a result.
28:02But in Greenland, this can't really
28:04happen because most of the
28:05locations of the discovered large
28:07mineral deposits are far away from
28:09the current population centers.
28:11While Greenland's own small
28:12population base simply doesn't have
28:14the skills or the numbers that
28:16would be required to operate the
28:17mines and provide for their
28:18equipment and processing.
28:20Greenland's tiny labor market is
28:22also currently extremely tight,
28:24with only 0.2% of the workforce
28:26that's currently unemployed and a
28:28whopping 43% of the workforce
28:30that's currently employed by the
28:31government.
28:32Greenland effectively just has no
28:34spare labor capacity available to
28:35work in any future mines, which
28:37means that like the sparsely populated
28:39Gulf Arab states did after they
28:41discovered oil, Greenland's only
28:43available option to actually exploit
28:45their mineral resources with mines
28:47that they require to actually be
28:48independent from Denmark or anyone
28:50else is by importing enormous numbers
28:54of foreign laborers.
28:56And because Greenland's population is
28:57so tiny, that has the potential to
29:00radically alter Greenland's entire
29:02demographics and society very quickly.
29:05According to Greenlandic officials,
29:07an average mine that'll be operated on
29:09the island will require around 300
29:10experienced foreign miners to run,
29:13meaning that just a single mine with
29:15that many workers will increase the
29:17whole island's population by 0.5%.
29:20Ten mines will increase Greenland's
29:23population by 5%, and some government
29:26projections suggest that Greenland's
29:27population would more than double within
29:29just a few years of large-scale mining
29:32beginning.
29:33In other countries that had small
29:34populations but massive resources that
29:37imported a lot of foreign labor, like
29:39Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, the
29:41foreign laborer population is now orders
29:43of magnitude larger than the local
29:45citizen population is, and a similar
29:48fate would probably ultimately befall an
29:50independent Greenland as well.
29:52In the Gulf states, especially in Saudi
29:54Arabia, the massive importation of foreign
29:56workers that enabled the country to
29:58exploit their resources also resulted in
30:01the government growing rich in royalties
30:03that it lavished upon its own citizens,
30:06which resulted in most of their own
30:07citizens opting to work for the
30:09government or getting by on government
30:11handouts and killed the incentive for
30:12anyone to start their own businesses.
30:15Their domestic productivity collapsed and
30:17their dependency on the oil industry grew
30:19even more chronic with time.
30:21Greenland has effectively been a planned
30:23economy within the Danish realm for more
30:25than 300 years now, and because so much of the
30:28island's government budget and its GDP have
30:30come from Denmark for so long, the wealthier
30:33class on the island are the ones who have
30:35the closest connection to those subsidies.
30:38Patronage networks exist in Greenland as a
30:40result, and so there is a substantial risk of
30:43rampant corruption taking hold in Greenland
30:46after it potentially becomes independent and
30:48welcomes massive foreign investment in
30:50mining operations.
30:5156,000 people governing this island effectively in
30:55the presence of such an enormous looming
30:57financial windfall will be incredibly difficult to do
31:00and avoid corruption.
31:02It's been described by some analysts as being
31:04akin to a small town in America being granted the
31:06keys to the oil fields of Saudi Arabia.
31:09What do you think your town's council would do with
31:11that?
31:12And if deep-seated corruption takes hold in
31:14Greenland post-independence, which is likely,
31:17the immense wealth it stands to gain in the future
31:19will not only be wildly unevenly distributed amongst
31:22its population, but there's also the potential that
31:25Greenland would shift further into authoritarianism
31:28and into the orbits of China and Russia.
31:30And China and Russia acquiring privileged access to
31:33Greenland's critical minerals would effectively lock
31:36China's monopoly on the global supply of critical minerals
31:39for good, while it would also secure China and Russia's
31:42control over the valuable Arctic trade routes of the future,
31:45all of which would, of course, be completely unacceptable to
31:48both the United States and also to Europe.
31:51Thus, Greenland doesn't have very many truly palatable options
31:54ahead of it.
31:55It could choose to remain a part of Denmark, despite the majority
31:58of its people wanting independence.
32:00It could become independent and lose their subsidies from
32:02Denmark, and then resort to large-scale mining to support
32:05themselves, which will radically transform Greenlandic society
32:08forever, with massive numbers of foreigners and a significant
32:11potential for corruption issues.
32:14Or it could seek to move away from Denmark and towards the United
32:16States through a variety of different means.
32:19Trump's suggestion of an outright purchase of Greenland, like
32:21America's territorial acquisitions of the past, is one of these options.
32:26The Economist came up with a recent crude valuation of Greenland that took
32:29into account its annual GDP of $3 billion, minus the island's public sector that's
32:35overwhelmingly subsidized by Denmark, and then assume that Greenland's long-run
32:39economic growth trend continues, and America receiving 16% of the island's GDP
32:44in taxes per year, which is the current U.S. national average.
32:48Their result was that Greenland was currently worth approximately $50 billion in a potential
32:53sale, which is only about 1 20th of the annual U.S. military budget.
32:58If the U.S. purchased Greenland directly from the Greenlanders in sidelined Denmark, they
33:03could afford to pay roughly every single resident who lives there $1 million in cash, and make
33:08every Greenlander a millionaire in the process.
33:11If Greenland also sold the island to the Americans, it would bring with it the full weight of the
33:16American administrative, legal, and security systems to the island as well, which, at least
33:21in theory, would eliminate the currently high risk of corruption setting in there, and would
33:26also probably guarantee a much more equalized distribution of Greenland's looming mineral
33:31windfall than if they went at it alone.
33:33The same could be said for remaining a part of Denmark and courting foreign investment through
33:37them as well, of course.
33:38But the American counterargument to that would be the billions of dollars it can immediately
33:43bring to the citizens of Greenland that Denmark simply can't afford.
33:47While the U.S. would likely further argue that American control over Greenland would ensure
33:51a stronger NATO presence in the Arctic that Denmark can't maintain on the road, in a theater
33:55that's increasingly becoming a tense geopolitical showdown with Russia's rapid remilitarization
34:01over their side of the Arctic.
34:02Of course, the Danes and much of the rest of the world suspect that Trump's true motives
34:07for owning American control over Greenland are far more simple and straightforward.
34:12Acquiring Greenland would be the single largest territorial acquisition made in all of American
34:17history, just barely surpassing the Louisiana Purchase in 1803 in scale that was made by Thomas
34:24Jefferson.
34:25Securing Greenland would cement Donald Trump's legacy in American history for all time to come.
34:31But if Trump is also successful at bullying a staunch American ally like Denmark into giving
34:36up its territories, it'll also permanently and catastrophically harm America's reputation
34:42around the world.
34:43And it'll cast grave doubts into the rest of America's allies around the world as well.
34:48While it would also give further legitimacy to Russia's territorial demands in Ukraine and
34:52even China's territorial demand on Taiwan.
34:55One more potential path forward for Greenland America and Denmark is to potentially explore
35:00the path of a Compact or Free Association or COFA.
35:04The United States already has COFA relationships with three otherwise independent states in the
35:09world.
35:09The Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau.
35:13These three island countries are all independent.
35:15But they're given access to America's domestic programs through the COFA agreements like
35:19Medicaid, the U.S. Postal Service, the Department of Education, the Federal Aviation Administration,
35:24FEMA, and many others.
35:26The citizens of the COFA states and American citizens are each fully free to live and work
35:30in each other's countries.
35:31While trade between the U.S. and the COFA states is also duty-free.
35:35In exchange, the COFA states allow the U.S. military effectively open access to all other
35:40countries' territories.
35:41And they agree to prohibit access to other foreign militaries without explicit American
35:46approval.
35:47COFA citizens are permitted to serve within the U.S. Armed Forces, while the U.S. handles
35:52all of their international defense treaties and affairs.
35:55The three COFA states in the Pacific are effectively American protectorates, who still maintain their
36:00nominal independence.
36:02And their populations are also comparable to Greenland, especially the Marshall Islands
36:06at 42,000 people and the Federated States of Micronesia with 115,000 people.
36:11Nearly double Greenland's population.
36:13Rather than buying Greenland or overrunning it through military force, another option on
36:18the table is the U.S. offering Greenland to become another COFA state instead, which
36:23could preserve Greenland's sovereignty and their independence while also protecting them
36:27from the dangers of corruption, while still protecting America from Russian or Chinese
36:31activity on the island as well.
36:33A pro-independence member of the Greenlandic parliament, Kuno Fenker, has even recently suggested
36:38that Greenland should pursue a dual COFA agreement with both the United States and Denmark after
36:43it declares its independence.
36:45But whatever option that Greenland ultimately decides to pursue, between remaining within
36:49Denmark, going completely independent, getting purchased and absorbed into the United States,
36:54or pursuing a compact or free association agreement with the U.S. and or Denmark, the decision
36:58ultimately should rest with the Greenlanders themselves in a fair and open election and referendum.
37:04It's their island, it's their past that they're reconciling with, and it's their future that
37:09they're deciding how best to pursue.
37:11And it's their wishes that should ultimately be respected.
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