Turkey's CHP trying to find model of 'sustainable resistance' against Erdogan, analyst says

FRANCE 24 English

FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, about the mass protests in Turkey. She says that Turkish authorities understand that there won't be much of a pushback from the West against the crackdown on the opposition, due to the current geopolitical environment. She adds that the CHP is trying to find a model of "sustainable resistance" to oppose Erdogan while protecting protesters.  Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00This is Apropos.

00:04Where Turkish opposition leaders are denouncing what they say is the ill-treatment of students

00:08who have been arrested as part of the mass protest movement that has gripped the country

00:13since the arrest of President Erdogan's main rival, the mayor of Istanbul, nearly two weeks

00:18ago.

00:19The crackdown is also stoking distrust among Kurds who are anxious to see what a fragile

00:24peace process may bring.

00:27As Kurds in Turkey celebrate the arrival of spring, the future of their status in the

00:34country still hangs in the balance.

00:37It was less than a month ago that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed a call from

00:41the PKK's jailed leader to lay down arms, a move that many had hoped would pave the

00:45way towards the resolution of a decades-long conflict.

00:49They saw it as an opportunity for peace and for Turkey to become more democratic.

00:55Of course our people have expectations, they took the first step, but they also want a

00:59step to be taken by the government.

01:03The pro-Kurdish DEM party says it's being kept in the dark about any potential reform

01:07roadmap.

01:08A meaningful peace process would have far-reaching implications including the formal recognition

01:13of minority rights.

01:17We want education in our mother tongue, we want to live freely in our country, we want

01:22our children to live in a free environment and in peace.

01:27We're old now, we want a future for the children.

01:31The recent imprisonment of Erdogan's main political opponent has cast a shadow over

01:35any prospect of open political dialogue.

01:38Ekrem İmamoğlu's arrest earlier this month has sparked the largest protest movement Turkey

01:43has seen in over a decade.

01:45Opposition parties, students and labour unions joining forces to flood the streets.

01:51In response, Turkish authorities have intensified their crackdown, arresting thousands of individuals.

01:58Our friends are being arrested and sent to prison because we are protesting.

02:02I want to condemn this, we are students, we are not terrorists.

02:08Despite the government's efforts to suppress dissent, the CHP party has called for weekly

02:12rallies as well as a boycott of companies perceived as close to the president.

02:18For more, let's bring in Asli Aydin Tashbash, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institute.

02:24Asli, thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening.

02:28Let's start with the crackdown on protesters.

02:30Why exactly is this happening now?

02:33Is Erdogan simply taking advantage of the wider geopolitical situation, do you believe,

02:38or are domestic issues playing more of a role here?

02:41Look, there's been very little reaction from the world outside.

02:47There's been very performative mumbling from Brussels, and here in Washington DC, Marco

02:53Rubio was meeting Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan a couple of days ago, and he talked

02:59about expressing concern about the protests in Turkey, but it's not clear that that's

03:05exactly how he raised it.

03:07And when he was asked again, he said he was concerned about stability in Turkey.

03:12So that's a very, very different emphasis, of course.

03:15So I think the Turkish authorities can really read the room, so to speak, and understand

03:23that the world is going through such a crushing geopolitical environment that there may not

03:29be much of a pushback from the West.

03:32And this is something that may lead to, I think, further crackdowns.

03:38On the other hand, we're also seeing the main opposition party, CHP, wanting to wrap

03:45up the protests.

03:46They don't want to continue at this intensity.

03:49They want to settle on a pace that makes sense, that is sustainable, and not have one or two

03:56protests or street demonstrations that can be manipulated, maybe.

04:00Instead, they want to do this in a more organized manner, and in a manner that prevents sort

04:07of crackdowns, so to speak.

04:09So I think there's a lot of soul searching inside CHP to see what form is more sustainable

04:17and shields, protects the protesters from arrests, detention and so on.

04:23It's not an easy situation for anybody.

04:25And Asli, you've pointed out as well that the arrest of the Istanbul mayor came after

04:29the first phone call had taken place between Erdogan and Donald Trump, and you've compared

04:34the international reaction, you referred to the reaction there, to what we saw back

04:38in 2013 to that protest movement.

04:42So what does the difference in approach tell us about Turkey's current standing in the

04:46world?

04:48Back in 2013, there was a massive urban protest, started in Istanbul but spread across the

04:54country.

04:55It was smaller in size than what we're currently seeing, I have to point that out.

05:01But what you had was maybe a dozen times a day statements from Washington and Brussels

05:09and warnings and phone calls, and sort of a very clear stance from European leaders

05:15and EU institutions that, you know, they wanted, they felt that peaceful protests should be

05:22allowed and that the Turkish government should actually hear the opposition, what the opposition

05:29or what the streets were saying.

05:31So it's a very, very different climate.

05:34That was around the time when Tahrir Square happened in Egypt, when Maidan uprising took

05:41place in Ukraine against Russia's attempts, and in Gezi, that's when Turkey was still,

05:48at least so, its future in the European Union.

05:51This is a different climate, of course, both internationally, but in terms of where Turkey

05:56sees its future.

05:59Ana, do recent events suggest then that there's been some kind of a critical shift underway

06:04in terms of democracy then in Turkey?

06:06And where does all of this leave the opposition?

06:10I think the opposition has a very tricky role to play.

06:14To his credit, the CHP leader, the leader of the main opposition party, Özgür Özel,

06:20has really grown in size in terms of his leadership over this past 10 days.

06:25People have come to appreciate the role he has played, both in terms of speaking out

06:32perhaps the sentiments on the street, but also making sure that the street does not

06:38become the sole avenue of protests and criticism.

06:43And I think that the opposition will now hold a party congress, party convention.

06:49The reason they want to hold it is because the prosecutors are saying the previous convention,

06:56which saw the end of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu period, a very ineffective period, is invalid.

07:05They're saying that Ekrem İmamoğlu played a role in buying that convention.

07:11These charges are yet to be fully announced by prosecutors.

07:17We don't really know what the full charges are, but CHP has gone ahead and is saying,

07:22you know what, we're going to hold our convention again.

07:25So we're going to see an internal struggle inside CHP for leadership, but we're also

07:30going to see an effort to create a situation over the next two, three years, whenever the

07:36elections are, to create a model of sustainable resistance to what is going on.

07:42And Asli, the Kurdish community would normally vote with the opposition.

07:46What is the situation currently for them?

07:49The crackdown appears to be making people anxious, really, about the fragile peace process

07:54and where that's going to go amid all of this.

07:57Exactly.

07:58Kurds are really between a rock and a hard place.

08:01They have a very, very difficult dilemma.

08:03For the first time in a decade, the government is now talking about a peace process which

08:11started with secret talks with Abdullah Öcalan, imprisoned PKK leader.

08:17And this is huge.

08:18This is huge for Kurds.

08:20Of course, they've been paying a political price.

08:23Many Kurdish politicians continue to be in jail, and they are interested in exploring

08:28this option.

08:29On the other hand, they look at what is happening in Turkey right now and very much doubt, I

08:35think, that there could be a democratic opening.

08:40I think they've stayed away from protests, from the streets, but they've expressed their

08:46opposition to what is happening.

08:48The question is, will Kurds continue to side with the opposition parties, with the opposition,

08:55with Ekrem İmamoğlu, as they have over the past decade?

08:59Over the past decade, they voted for a policy which was to defeat Erdogan.

09:04Now they have to choose between that policy and potentially a peace process with Erdogan.

09:11And it's a very difficult choice for every individual, and particularly the Kurdish political

09:16party.

09:17They don't want to lose once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity if there is one, but

09:23they are not entirely certain that there is one.

09:26So I think the next couple of months will also be critical in terms of them, the Kurdish

09:32political party, deciding what to do.

09:35How polarized then is Turkish society overall, and how popular is Erdogan currently?

09:42President Erdogan, no doubt, is one of the most popular, historically speaking, one of

09:46the most popular Turkish politicians, and he continues to be popular.

09:50But there is also no doubt that his popularity has been waning, has been in decline, especially

09:56because he's been in power for so long, and also because Turkey is undergoing a very severe

10:02economic downturn.

10:03So in the recent protest, we have a very clear indication from polling that almost 73 percent

10:12of Turks are opposed to what is happening.

10:15That doesn't mean 73 percent are on the streets.

10:19Some of them are just opposed to what's happening.

10:22That doesn't mean they change their party affiliation.

10:25It doesn't mean they will necessarily vote against Erdogan.

10:29But they don't think this is democratic or fair.

10:32Now, we are seeing a wide range of people, a wide cross-section of Turkish society on

10:40the streets.

10:41Certainly students, yes, a lot of young people, including from urban, historically poor neighborhoods

10:49in urban cities, but also pensioners, old people that are very disgruntled, and maybe

10:55they have less to lose, they feel.

10:57So there's an interesting mix on the streets in what is opposing, in addition, of course,

11:04to the CHP, CHP's traditional base of urban secularists.

11:12You've also suggested that Erdogan, in terms of the wider geopolitical situation, Asli,

11:17that he perhaps sees an opportunity here for a reset in relations with the West.

11:23Look, Turkey is in between two hot wars, one in Gaza, one in Ukraine, and it has the ability

11:29to have an impact on both of these wars.

11:35President Erdogan has leveraged his relations between Russia and the West and Europe.

11:40He's been playing this incredibly interesting balancing act and has done it skillfully enough

11:45that now he has United States, Europe, and Russia wanting to continue relations with

11:52him.

11:53There is also a new situation with Trump administration being in power and Europeans wanting, understanding

12:02that they cannot count on United States for Europe's security in the long run, even after

12:08a ceasefire in Ukraine.

12:10So I think Turkey is now appearing as an interesting partner, potential partner, for Europe, for

12:17European countries, for NATO and the EU, both in terms of post-war European security architecture

12:26and as perhaps a defense industry supplier, a weapons supplier for Europe at a time when

12:33European countries are finding it more difficult to transition to a war economy, to produce

12:41defense industrial output at the level that they need.

12:46Turkey continues to have a very, very robust defense industry at home.

12:53It's never actually left the war footing.

12:56So I think that Europeans are now thinking of Turkey perhaps potentially playing a role

13:02to fill that gap, that gap until they can produce their own weapons.

13:09So this is historically a very interesting time for Turkey and President Erdogan is able

13:15to use that external momentum to an extent to sort of buy silence from the West for events

13:25that are happening domestically.

13:26Asli Aydin Tashbash, we'll have to leave it there for now.

13:29Thanks so much for being with us.

13:31Well, that is it from us for now.

13:33Stay with us, though, for more world news.

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