00:00This is Apropos.
00:04Where Turkish opposition leaders are denouncing what they say is the ill-treatment of students
00:08who have been arrested as part of the mass protest movement that has gripped the country
00:13since the arrest of President Erdogan's main rival, the mayor of Istanbul, nearly two weeks
00:18ago.
00:19The crackdown is also stoking distrust among Kurds who are anxious to see what a fragile
00:24peace process may bring.
00:27As Kurds in Turkey celebrate the arrival of spring, the future of their status in the
00:34country still hangs in the balance.
00:37It was less than a month ago that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed a call from
00:41the PKK's jailed leader to lay down arms, a move that many had hoped would pave the
00:45way towards the resolution of a decades-long conflict.
00:49They saw it as an opportunity for peace and for Turkey to become more democratic.
00:55Of course our people have expectations, they took the first step, but they also want a
00:59step to be taken by the government.
01:03The pro-Kurdish DEM party says it's being kept in the dark about any potential reform
01:07roadmap.
01:08A meaningful peace process would have far-reaching implications including the formal recognition
01:13of minority rights.
01:17We want education in our mother tongue, we want to live freely in our country, we want
01:22our children to live in a free environment and in peace.
01:27We're old now, we want a future for the children.
01:31The recent imprisonment of Erdogan's main political opponent has cast a shadow over
01:35any prospect of open political dialogue.
01:38Ekrem İmamoğlu's arrest earlier this month has sparked the largest protest movement Turkey
01:43has seen in over a decade.
01:45Opposition parties, students and labour unions joining forces to flood the streets.
01:51In response, Turkish authorities have intensified their crackdown, arresting thousands of individuals.
01:58Our friends are being arrested and sent to prison because we are protesting.
02:02I want to condemn this, we are students, we are not terrorists.
02:08Despite the government's efforts to suppress dissent, the CHP party has called for weekly
02:12rallies as well as a boycott of companies perceived as close to the president.
02:18For more, let's bring in Asli Aydin Tashbash, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institute.
02:24Asli, thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening.
02:28Let's start with the crackdown on protesters.
02:30Why exactly is this happening now?
02:33Is Erdogan simply taking advantage of the wider geopolitical situation, do you believe,
02:38or are domestic issues playing more of a role here?
02:41Look, there's been very little reaction from the world outside.
02:47There's been very performative mumbling from Brussels, and here in Washington DC, Marco
02:53Rubio was meeting Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan a couple of days ago, and he talked
02:59about expressing concern about the protests in Turkey, but it's not clear that that's
03:05exactly how he raised it.
03:07And when he was asked again, he said he was concerned about stability in Turkey.
03:12So that's a very, very different emphasis, of course.
03:15So I think the Turkish authorities can really read the room, so to speak, and understand
03:23that the world is going through such a crushing geopolitical environment that there may not
03:29be much of a pushback from the West.
03:32And this is something that may lead to, I think, further crackdowns.
03:38On the other hand, we're also seeing the main opposition party, CHP, wanting to wrap
03:45up the protests.
03:46They don't want to continue at this intensity.
03:49They want to settle on a pace that makes sense, that is sustainable, and not have one or two
03:56protests or street demonstrations that can be manipulated, maybe.
04:00Instead, they want to do this in a more organized manner, and in a manner that prevents sort
04:07of crackdowns, so to speak.
04:09So I think there's a lot of soul searching inside CHP to see what form is more sustainable
04:17and shields, protects the protesters from arrests, detention and so on.
04:23It's not an easy situation for anybody.
04:25And Asli, you've pointed out as well that the arrest of the Istanbul mayor came after
04:29the first phone call had taken place between Erdogan and Donald Trump, and you've compared
04:34the international reaction, you referred to the reaction there, to what we saw back
04:38in 2013 to that protest movement.
04:42So what does the difference in approach tell us about Turkey's current standing in the
04:46world?
04:48Back in 2013, there was a massive urban protest, started in Istanbul but spread across the
04:54country.
04:55It was smaller in size than what we're currently seeing, I have to point that out.
05:01But what you had was maybe a dozen times a day statements from Washington and Brussels
05:09and warnings and phone calls, and sort of a very clear stance from European leaders
05:15and EU institutions that, you know, they wanted, they felt that peaceful protests should be
05:22allowed and that the Turkish government should actually hear the opposition, what the opposition
05:29or what the streets were saying.
05:31So it's a very, very different climate.
05:34That was around the time when Tahrir Square happened in Egypt, when Maidan uprising took
05:41place in Ukraine against Russia's attempts, and in Gezi, that's when Turkey was still,
05:48at least so, its future in the European Union.
05:51This is a different climate, of course, both internationally, but in terms of where Turkey
05:56sees its future.
05:59Ana, do recent events suggest then that there's been some kind of a critical shift underway
06:04in terms of democracy then in Turkey?
06:06And where does all of this leave the opposition?
06:10I think the opposition has a very tricky role to play.
06:14To his credit, the CHP leader, the leader of the main opposition party, Özgür Özel,
06:20has really grown in size in terms of his leadership over this past 10 days.
06:25People have come to appreciate the role he has played, both in terms of speaking out
06:32perhaps the sentiments on the street, but also making sure that the street does not
06:38become the sole avenue of protests and criticism.
06:43And I think that the opposition will now hold a party congress, party convention.
06:49The reason they want to hold it is because the prosecutors are saying the previous convention,
06:56which saw the end of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu period, a very ineffective period, is invalid.
07:05They're saying that Ekrem İmamoğlu played a role in buying that convention.
07:11These charges are yet to be fully announced by prosecutors.
07:17We don't really know what the full charges are, but CHP has gone ahead and is saying,
07:22you know what, we're going to hold our convention again.
07:25So we're going to see an internal struggle inside CHP for leadership, but we're also
07:30going to see an effort to create a situation over the next two, three years, whenever the
07:36elections are, to create a model of sustainable resistance to what is going on.
07:42And Asli, the Kurdish community would normally vote with the opposition.
07:46What is the situation currently for them?
07:49The crackdown appears to be making people anxious, really, about the fragile peace process
07:54and where that's going to go amid all of this.
07:57Exactly.
07:58Kurds are really between a rock and a hard place.
08:01They have a very, very difficult dilemma.
08:03For the first time in a decade, the government is now talking about a peace process which
08:11started with secret talks with Abdullah Öcalan, imprisoned PKK leader.
08:17And this is huge.
08:18This is huge for Kurds.
08:20Of course, they've been paying a political price.
08:23Many Kurdish politicians continue to be in jail, and they are interested in exploring
08:28this option.
08:29On the other hand, they look at what is happening in Turkey right now and very much doubt, I
08:35think, that there could be a democratic opening.
08:40I think they've stayed away from protests, from the streets, but they've expressed their
08:46opposition to what is happening.
08:48The question is, will Kurds continue to side with the opposition parties, with the opposition,
08:55with Ekrem İmamoğlu, as they have over the past decade?
08:59Over the past decade, they voted for a policy which was to defeat Erdogan.
09:04Now they have to choose between that policy and potentially a peace process with Erdogan.
09:11And it's a very difficult choice for every individual, and particularly the Kurdish political
09:16party.
09:17They don't want to lose once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity if there is one, but
09:23they are not entirely certain that there is one.
09:26So I think the next couple of months will also be critical in terms of them, the Kurdish
09:32political party, deciding what to do.
09:35How polarized then is Turkish society overall, and how popular is Erdogan currently?
09:42President Erdogan, no doubt, is one of the most popular, historically speaking, one of
09:46the most popular Turkish politicians, and he continues to be popular.
09:50But there is also no doubt that his popularity has been waning, has been in decline, especially
09:56because he's been in power for so long, and also because Turkey is undergoing a very severe
10:02economic downturn.
10:03So in the recent protest, we have a very clear indication from polling that almost 73 percent
10:12of Turks are opposed to what is happening.
10:15That doesn't mean 73 percent are on the streets.
10:19Some of them are just opposed to what's happening.
10:22That doesn't mean they change their party affiliation.
10:25It doesn't mean they will necessarily vote against Erdogan.
10:29But they don't think this is democratic or fair.
10:32Now, we are seeing a wide range of people, a wide cross-section of Turkish society on
10:40the streets.
10:41Certainly students, yes, a lot of young people, including from urban, historically poor neighborhoods
10:49in urban cities, but also pensioners, old people that are very disgruntled, and maybe
10:55they have less to lose, they feel.
10:57So there's an interesting mix on the streets in what is opposing, in addition, of course,
11:04to the CHP, CHP's traditional base of urban secularists.
11:12You've also suggested that Erdogan, in terms of the wider geopolitical situation, Asli,
11:17that he perhaps sees an opportunity here for a reset in relations with the West.
11:23Look, Turkey is in between two hot wars, one in Gaza, one in Ukraine, and it has the ability
11:29to have an impact on both of these wars.
11:35President Erdogan has leveraged his relations between Russia and the West and Europe.
11:40He's been playing this incredibly interesting balancing act and has done it skillfully enough
11:45that now he has United States, Europe, and Russia wanting to continue relations with
11:52him.
11:53There is also a new situation with Trump administration being in power and Europeans wanting, understanding
12:02that they cannot count on United States for Europe's security in the long run, even after
12:08a ceasefire in Ukraine.
12:10So I think Turkey is now appearing as an interesting partner, potential partner, for Europe, for
12:17European countries, for NATO and the EU, both in terms of post-war European security architecture
12:26and as perhaps a defense industry supplier, a weapons supplier for Europe at a time when
12:33European countries are finding it more difficult to transition to a war economy, to produce
12:41defense industrial output at the level that they need.
12:46Turkey continues to have a very, very robust defense industry at home.
12:53It's never actually left the war footing.
12:56So I think that Europeans are now thinking of Turkey perhaps potentially playing a role
13:02to fill that gap, that gap until they can produce their own weapons.
13:09So this is historically a very interesting time for Turkey and President Erdogan is able
13:15to use that external momentum to an extent to sort of buy silence from the West for events
13:25that are happening domestically.
13:26Asli Aydin Tashbash, we'll have to leave it there for now.
13:29Thanks so much for being with us.
13:31Well, that is it from us for now.
13:33Stay with us, though, for more world news.
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