00:00Three years after the Russian attack on Ukraine, Germany is in the midst of a hybrid war and
00:12the new US administration is bringing surprises on a daily basis.
00:17This month the US froze military aid to Ukraine and the sharing of intelligence.
00:22We'll talk now with Bruno Kahl, the president of the German foreign intelligence service
00:27BND about the latest developments.
00:31Welcome to Deutsche Welle, Mr. Kahl.
00:33How concerned are you at the moment about the US-Russian rapprochement?
00:42I'm particularly concerned about the overall situation in the world.
00:46And of course the conflict, the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine, is the central
00:51issue.
00:52But there's almost no conflict about which the new administration in Washington is not
00:56changing its assessment.
00:58And so concerns have increased rather than decreased.
01:05German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier recently said that he could never have imagined
01:09that Ukraine would one day have to be protected from the USA.
01:13How do you explain the change of heart in the White House?
01:20I still hope that we will succeed in protecting Ukraine, first and foremost from Russia.
01:26That is something that the West must achieve together.
01:28And European governments are currently making a great, great effort to do so.
01:34And we also very much hope that the Americans will soon be at our side again to help protect
01:39Ukraine from the aggression coming from the East.
01:46Following the halt to arms supplies, the US has now also stopped intelligence sharing
01:51with Ukraine.
01:52Can Europe fill the gap at all?
01:54What can Germany do?
01:58We're all trying hard and we're also consulting with other European intelligence agencies
02:03to see what we can do to keep Ukraine as informed as possible at all times and to equip it so
02:08that it can defend itself.
02:10And European intelligence services can also do a lot in that regard.
02:16But how blind is Ukraine now without the information from the US?
02:19What do you think?
02:20I wouldn't say blind.
02:23It is of course a jigsaw made up of many different pieces of information and factors that come
02:27together to keep Ukraine as informed as it needs to be if it is to defend itself properly.
02:33But together we will endeavour to ensure that Ukraine becomes neither blind nor deaf.
02:44Germany also receives very important information and tips from the US, especially to prevent
02:48attacks in its own country.
02:50That's an open secret.
02:51How dependent are we on this information?
02:59Intelligence services around the world are working very, very intensively together to
03:03fend off international threats, especially from Islamist terrorism.
03:07Every country is dependent on the help of other countries.
03:11No country can fight all the threats by itself.
03:14And that's why our friends on the other side of the Atlantic are very dependent on our
03:18information just as we are on theirs.
03:21And in this respect, we assume that the exchange will also be maintained in matters that can
03:26really save lives.
03:31So you're assuming that information flow from the US will continue.
03:36But Donald Trump recently also broke a taboo and tied security guarantees for Ukraine to
03:41commercial interests.
03:44Could the US one day also turn intelligence into political currency with Europe?
03:52We all check our phones every morning to see what happened overnight, so we're not immune
03:57to surprises, even the radical ones.
03:59But at the moment, we can confidently continue our intelligence work for the time being.
04:13Intelligence is also a currency in the intelligence world.
04:16We're talking now about the information that flows from the United States to Europe, to
04:20Germany.
04:21What about the information flowing in the opposite direction?
04:25Can you now assume with a clear conscience that you will continue to pass on information
04:29to the USA with a Russia link, for example, given that their intelligence coordination
04:36lies with Tulsi Gabbard, for example, who's known for a Russia-friendly stance?
04:45First of all, we have no reason to change our practice, which is based on trust that's
04:49grown over many years and on really well-established working relationships.
04:54And since we have an interest in maintaining these working relationships, we'll also do
04:58our part to ensure that there are no breakups.
05:01But we will continue to take this trust as a given.
05:09Mr. Kahl, your agency, the Federal Intelligence Service, fends off cyber attacks, hybrid attacks
05:15and disinformation on a daily basis.
05:18What stage of the hybrid war that we're all talking about are we actually at now?
05:25There's no chessboard-like measurement of this hybrid war.
05:29But as Germany, as Europe, as a territory of NATO member states, we're of course already
05:34the scene of Russian activities that go far beyond the usual level of espionage.
05:40We've seen hybrid influence operations, including during the elections that took place in Europe,
05:45right up to acts of sabotage on German territory, on the territory of other European states,
05:51which are carried out in a robust manner that is unprecedented in the recent past.
05:59And in this respect, we must be prepared for this type of threat to continue, regardless
06:04of how the war in Ukraine develops.
06:15You've warned about this several times in interviews and in the German parliament, that
06:20Vladimir Putin's real goal is not just Ukraine, but that he actually wants a new world order.
06:26For that, he could also put NATO Article 5 to the test.
06:30Can we still rely on Article 5 in your opinion?
06:35My job is to decipher what threats are coming from abroad.
06:39And indeed, I've pointed out that there are considerations in Russia to put the reliability
06:44of Article 5 to the test.
06:47And in fact, there have also recently been very specific voices in the Russian mainstream
06:51media, outside the intelligence services, who've said that Article 5 no longer holds.
06:57We very much hope that this is not true, and that we won't face the dilemma of it being
07:02tested.
07:03But we have to assume that Russia wants to test us, that it wants to put the unity of
07:08the West to the test.
07:09So, we're talking about 2030, 2029.
07:14Do you assume that's actually the time frame we're talking about?
07:21This time span is based on very sound data, but it is of course dependent on developments
07:25over time.
07:26So, if a military conflict in Ukraine comes to a standstill earlier, then of course all
07:32the means, both the technical and the material means, such as armaments and personnel, such
07:38as recruitment, will be able to pose a threat against Europe much earlier.
07:44And then it is also possible that a concrete threat, blackmail from the Russian side against
07:49the Europeans, for instance, may take place earlier than we had previously calculated.
08:00I don't want to give any dates now, but everything is connected to everything else.
08:05An early end to the war in Ukraine will enable the Russians to use their energy where they
08:10actually want it, namely against Europe.
08:14You're talking about an attempt of blackmail.
08:17What are you thinking of?
08:18What is the world order that Russia has in mind right now?
08:24That's the world order as it existed in Europe in the late 1990s, pushing back the protection
08:29of NATO and extending Russia's sphere of influence to the West, preferably without the Americans
08:34in Europe.
08:35So far it's just the Russians who've wanted that, and we really hope that the Americans
08:39don't now want it too.
08:42That would be the Cold War 2.0.
08:47I'm not a fan of buzzwords because they tend to obscure differences and suggest similarities
08:52where they don't exist at all.
08:56But it is definitely an exacerbation of the tensions that exist between East and West.
09:03While the distance to Washington is growing in many countries right now, Europe seems
09:08to be moving closer together.
09:09We see bilateral cooperation too now.
09:13The German Federal Intelligence Service, for example, has recently made the unusual announcement
09:18that it is entering into cooperation with the Polish Secret Service.
09:22Why?
09:23The unusual thing was perhaps that we announced it.
09:28But of course it's clear that we also cooperate closely with our closest neighbours in terms
09:33of security.
09:34We're all in the same boat, our neighbours to the East, in the Baltic states, in the
09:38former Warsaw Pact countries, as well as our friends in the West.
09:42In terms of security, we are in the same boat as far as the threat from the East is concerned.
09:48And then of course it goes without saying that we should work very closely together.
09:53It's unfortunate that such aggression from Moscow is needed to bring people in the West
09:57even closer together.
09:59The intelligence services very early on were very advanced in this cooperation, and they've
10:04also moved closer together in terms of mutual trust.
10:09The armies may still have to catch up, and in particular we have to be fast in building
10:16up the military forces that we need for effective deterrence.
10:21It's not as if there's been a shortage of warnings.
10:24We've been told time and again that we were doing too little compared to the Americans,
10:28and now we have to say, if you don't want to hear, you have to feel.
10:32Now we have to make a huge effort to catch up on this homework.
10:42Perhaps briefly on the security situation in Germany.
10:45We've been talking about the threat from Russia the whole time.
10:48How do you assess the danger, the threat from the Islamist scene?
10:53Unfortunately, the threat of international, predominantly Islamist, terrorism has not
10:59diminished.
11:00We have a summer of sport behind us, with European Championships taking place in Germany
11:05and the Olympics in Paris.
11:07These were two major events that also gave rise to great dangers, and where the international
11:12cooperation between intelligence services and police forces worked very, very well.
11:19And where we were able to jointly prevent attacks that were already in preparation.
11:35In other words, the ability of international terrorism to export terrorism by its main
11:40players, such as IS and Al-Qaeda, back to Europe.
11:45Unfortunately, this ability is back, and we have to defend ourselves against this danger,
11:50in addition to all the other threats we've talked about.
11:53And that's not possible without intelligence cooperation.
11:57We're glad that there have been no major attacks thanks to these joint efforts, but we've also
12:01seen cases in Germany that signal to us that the danger of international Islamist terrorism
12:06has by no means been averted.
12:09Given the current situation, do you also consider that there could be a connection or a link
12:14between Russia and this Islamist threat?
12:19At the moment, we see no evidence to suggest that.
12:22But of course, we are asking ourselves the question.
12:25We've also seen in the past that many small individual incidents later turned out to have
12:30a larger context.
12:31Take the NSU in Germany, for example.
12:34And that is, of course, a signal that we should make such considerations from the outset and
12:39investigate all leads that could possibly show these connections.
12:42However, we've not yet received any leads.
12:50Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor, has already signaled that he wants to grant
12:54more powers to the intelligence services in Germany.
12:57What are you actually demanding in concrete terms?
13:01Well, we still have some homework to do following the decisions of the Federal Constitutional
13:06Court and the legislation that followed.
13:08And there is still some homework to be done in terms of legislation that's urgently needed.
13:13For example, the transfer of data to the Bundeswehr.
13:21You may not believe it, but the legal basis for this is still missing.
13:25This is urgently needed.
13:27The closer we get to a situation where we have to defend ourselves and our alliance,
13:32the more we will need to be able to transfer lots of data quickly.
13:36We need a legislative basis for this.
13:38As far as cyber defense is concerned, we're also not yet equipped with every necessary
13:43bit of legal basis to cooperate internationally with other intelligence services.
13:47This is another major area that needs to be regulated by law.
13:51And there are still many small individual cases that we need to deal with.
13:56Individual cases that have actually been waiting to be solved for a very long time,
14:01which we now hope a new federal government will really tackle quickly and then bring about.
14:06The need for us to work more efficiently is increasing,
14:09and therefore the time pressure is also increasing.
14:12And I have good reason to hope that we can close these gaps in the legislation.
