What to expect when Nvidia reports earnings

Here's what investors should watch when Nvidia reports earnings on February 26.

Transcript

00:00What about NVIDIA, right? That company doesn't report until February 26th, late February.

00:06So what will you be looking or listening for when that company talks?

00:12Well, let's talk about what we've gotten thus far, because there's been a number of supporting data

00:16points for NVIDIA, whether it's, you know, most recently Taiwan Semiconductor talking about their

00:23March quarter results. You know, if you parse the numbers versus year over year, up significantly.

00:28Han Hai, which is a big partner for NVIDIA and AI servers, up strong. So those are positives.

00:35But even more recently, Supermicro, with their outlook for their AI-related business, you know,

00:41very strong. And that in particular kind of tells us that we're starting to see the logjam break

00:49inside of NVIDIA, if you will, for Blackwell. That's their next generation chipset. That's

00:53the one that everybody is focused in on. And to the extent that Supermicro's business kind of

00:59follows the path of stronger second half revenue compared to the first half of 2025,

01:05that's a nice leading indicator for what we should hear from NVIDIA in a couple of weeks.

01:10But, you know, again, we'll continue to follow the data points, you know, including those big

01:15tech spending numbers. But they're too very positive for what NVIDIA should have to say

01:21in the coming weeks. But to be specific with your question, Conway, what are we going to want to hear

01:27from NVIDIA? How is the transition to Blackwell going? How does that factor into your revenue

01:33forecast for the back half of the year? When does the capacity constraints that you've talked about,

01:38when do they really fall to the wayside? So that's what we'll be listening for.

01:43And so how bullish are you on NVIDIA as a stock? It's still expected to post revenue growth, what,

01:49north of 50 percent this year. And thanks to that haircut it got around February,

01:54January 27th, it's trading, what, in the high 20s times its forward earnings.

02:00So how do you feel about the stock? Look, we've got a 175 price target. You know,

02:05right now it's kind of bouncing around between 130, 135. So we certainly see enough upside to

02:12keep it a one rated stock. And, you know, that's that's where we think that we're going to keep it.

02:17I wouldn't be surprised if, as capacity constraints fall by the wayside,

02:23that we see revenue expectations for the second half of the year strengthen. Remember, too,

02:28that, you know, with, you know, big tech capacity constrained, a lot of the dollars that they're

02:34going to go forward, you know, in spending for this quarter, the second quarter, even the third

02:38quarter, that's really laying the groundwork for what's to come. So I wouldn't be surprised if we

02:43see a nice revenue ramp inside of Nvidia over the ensuing quarters.