00:00I don't take care of things here.
00:01Besides, the chance of 1.2 to 2.3 is increasing.
00:04I tell you, Fer, that living in Argentina,
00:07don't rule out that I know where it's going to go.
00:09I know where it's going.
00:10It's Niseto and Carranza.
00:11It's coming straight this way.
00:13Diego Bagu is an astronomer.
00:15Diego, I'm Luis Novales. Good day, 24. How are you?
00:19Hi, Luis. Good day. How are you?
00:20Are we worried about this asteroid
00:22that can presumably collide with Earth?
00:26I would take out the pre.
00:28I would say, we take care of it.
00:31Because the concern is not such yet.
00:34But we have to take care of it,
00:36because there may be a concern in the future.
00:38And this depends on the route
00:41that this creature,
00:42of approximately 50 to 60 meters in diameter,
00:47has in reality.
00:49It's an asteroid that was discovered
00:50two months ago, two and a half months ago.
00:53It was discovered when it was already
00:55passing, in astronomical terms,
00:58near Earth.
00:59Therefore, we were already lucky there.
01:01Because if we discover it,
01:03in case it comes to impact us,
01:06the story would be different.
01:08This is what marks us,
01:10once again,
01:11as we have commented so many times,
01:12is that we have to look,
01:14as the movie says, up,
01:16because we are not exempt one day
01:18from having the confirmation
01:20that an asteroid impacts us.
01:21It was discovered last December,
01:23it went by,
01:24and it continued to be observed.
01:26Today,
01:27I was checking the databases
01:29of NASA and the European Space Agency.
01:31With 376 observations
01:34that were made,
01:36the numbers indicate,
01:37the orbit around the Sun was calculated,
01:40and the numbers indicate
01:41that there is a 1.5% probability
01:46that in 2032,
01:48in a couple of years,
01:49it will impact us.
01:51Will that probability change?
01:53Of course it will change.
01:54For greater or for lesser,
01:56but that depends on
01:57continuing to observe it
01:59and being attentive in that sense.
02:01Diego, help us with the most basic.
02:03What is an asteroid?
02:04What dimensions does it have?
02:06In other words,
02:07to take note of the possibility.
02:11Asteroids are cousins of comets.
02:14And basically,
02:15they are the remains,
02:17what was left
02:18of when the solar system was formed.
02:20We are talking about
02:215 billion years ago,
02:23in time.
02:24The largest amount
02:26of a huge cloud
02:27of gas and dust
02:29was to stop the Sun,
02:30in a very high percentage,
02:3298% or a little more.
02:35The 2% that remained,
02:37most of that material
02:38formed the planets
02:40and there were remains
02:41that did not stop the Sun
02:43or the planets.
02:45Those are asteroids and comets.
02:46And there are millions.
02:48Some have the size
02:49of small grains of sand
02:51and when they enter
02:52the Earth's atmosphere,
02:54at thousands of kilometers per hour,
02:55they ignite
02:57due to friction with the air
02:58and they are the famous
03:00fugacious stars.
03:01Now, some are much bigger.
03:03The largest asteroid
03:05has practically the size
03:06of a planet.
03:08It has a thousand kilometers in diameter.
03:10And then you have
03:12a huge family
03:13with all the sizes
03:15you can imagine.
03:16This one in particular,
03:18which we are talking about
03:19and about which news
03:20we have been talking about
03:22for a few weeks,
03:23has the size of,
03:25it oscillates between
03:2750 and 90 meters in diameter.
03:30Which implies that
03:32in case we have
03:33bad luck,
03:35that it impacts the Earth,
03:36it would not cause
03:38a catastrophe
03:40on a planetary scale,
03:41as it did 65 million years ago
03:43and caused a massive extinction
03:45of plants and animals.
03:48But it would cause
03:49a total destruction
03:51on a regional scale.
03:52In other words...
03:54And Diego, I wanted to ask you...
03:55Like a bomb.
03:57Following the line
03:58of what you are telling
04:00about what it would cause
04:01on Earth or not,
04:03is it known exactly
04:04where it could fall?
04:06Because most of the time
04:07these questions fall into the water
04:09because we already know the planet.
04:10It seems the little prince
04:12talking about the planets,
04:13I hear it,
04:15the asteroids and more.
04:16But is there any study
04:18on where it could fall?
04:19And yes, you see,
04:21I'm talking about asteroids.
04:22Didn't you read it, guys?
04:24Yes, yes.
04:25And well,
04:27I tell myself,
04:28you are the little prince
04:30of Buendía 24.
04:31There is an estimate
04:33of where it could fall.
04:34I'm not a big fan of that estimate
04:36because imagine
04:37that if we are still far away
04:39from knowing
04:40a certain science,
04:42what is the probability
04:43of the impact there,
04:45or if it is going to impact or not,
04:46the first estimations
04:48show a kind of strip,
04:50yes,
04:52of belt
04:53that goes through
04:55more or less
04:56the equatorial area of the Earth,
04:58which goes from the Pacific Ocean
05:00passing through
05:02the north of South America,
05:03Ecuador,
05:05Colombia,
05:06north of Brazil,
05:08part of the Atlantic
05:09and part
05:11of the south of Africa.
05:13That a priori
05:14would be
05:16the first estimations
05:17of possible impacts.
05:20Of course.
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