Asteroide podría impactar la Tierra en 2032

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Un asteroide de entre 50 y 90 metros de diámetro, descubierto recientemente, tiene un 1.5% de probabilidad de colisionar con la Tierra en el año 2032. Aunque el riesgo es bajo, los astrónomos enfatizan la importancia de seguir monitoreando su trayectoria para anticipar cualquier cambio en su órbita. De impactar, causaría destrucción a nivel regional, pero no una catástrofe global. Las primeras estimaciones sugieren que podría caer en una franja ecuatorial que abarca desde el océano Pacífico hasta el sur de África. La comunidad científica sigue atenta a nuevas observaciones para ajustar estas predicciones.

Transcript

00:00I don't take care of things here.

00:01Besides, the chance of 1.2 to 2.3 is increasing.

00:04I tell you, Fer, that living in Argentina,

00:07don't rule out that I know where it's going to go.

00:09I know where it's going.

00:10It's Niseto and Carranza.

00:11It's coming straight this way.

00:13Diego Bagu is an astronomer.

00:15Diego, I'm Luis Novales. Good day, 24. How are you?

00:19Hi, Luis. Good day. How are you?

00:20Are we worried about this asteroid

00:22that can presumably collide with Earth?

00:26I would take out the pre.

00:28I would say, we take care of it.

00:31Because the concern is not such yet.

00:34But we have to take care of it,

00:36because there may be a concern in the future.

00:38And this depends on the route

00:41that this creature,

00:42of approximately 50 to 60 meters in diameter,

00:47has in reality.

00:49It's an asteroid that was discovered

00:50two months ago, two and a half months ago.

00:53It was discovered when it was already

00:55passing, in astronomical terms,

00:58near Earth.

00:59Therefore, we were already lucky there.

01:01Because if we discover it,

01:03in case it comes to impact us,

01:06the story would be different.

01:08This is what marks us,

01:10once again,

01:11as we have commented so many times,

01:12is that we have to look,

01:14as the movie says, up,

01:16because we are not exempt one day

01:18from having the confirmation

01:20that an asteroid impacts us.

01:21It was discovered last December,

01:23it went by,

01:24and it continued to be observed.

01:26Today,

01:27I was checking the databases

01:29of NASA and the European Space Agency.

01:31With 376 observations

01:34that were made,

01:36the numbers indicate,

01:37the orbit around the Sun was calculated,

01:40and the numbers indicate

01:41that there is a 1.5% probability

01:46that in 2032,

01:48in a couple of years,

01:49it will impact us.

01:51Will that probability change?

01:53Of course it will change.

01:54For greater or for lesser,

01:56but that depends on

01:57continuing to observe it

01:59and being attentive in that sense.

02:01Diego, help us with the most basic.

02:03What is an asteroid?

02:04What dimensions does it have?

02:06In other words,

02:07to take note of the possibility.

02:11Asteroids are cousins of comets.

02:14And basically,

02:15they are the remains,

02:17what was left

02:18of when the solar system was formed.

02:20We are talking about

02:215 billion years ago,

02:23in time.

02:24The largest amount

02:26of a huge cloud

02:27of gas and dust

02:29was to stop the Sun,

02:30in a very high percentage,

02:3298% or a little more.

02:35The 2% that remained,

02:37most of that material

02:38formed the planets

02:40and there were remains

02:41that did not stop the Sun

02:43or the planets.

02:45Those are asteroids and comets.

02:46And there are millions.

02:48Some have the size

02:49of small grains of sand

02:51and when they enter

02:52the Earth's atmosphere,

02:54at thousands of kilometers per hour,

02:55they ignite

02:57due to friction with the air

02:58and they are the famous

03:00fugacious stars.

03:01Now, some are much bigger.

03:03The largest asteroid

03:05has practically the size

03:06of a planet.

03:08It has a thousand kilometers in diameter.

03:10And then you have

03:12a huge family

03:13with all the sizes

03:15you can imagine.

03:16This one in particular,

03:18which we are talking about

03:19and about which news

03:20we have been talking about

03:22for a few weeks,

03:23has the size of,

03:25it oscillates between

03:2750 and 90 meters in diameter.

03:30Which implies that

03:32in case we have

03:33bad luck,

03:35that it impacts the Earth,

03:36it would not cause

03:38a catastrophe

03:40on a planetary scale,

03:41as it did 65 million years ago

03:43and caused a massive extinction

03:45of plants and animals.

03:48But it would cause

03:49a total destruction

03:51on a regional scale.

03:52In other words...

03:54And Diego, I wanted to ask you...

03:55Like a bomb.

03:57Following the line

03:58of what you are telling

04:00about what it would cause

04:01on Earth or not,

04:03is it known exactly

04:04where it could fall?

04:06Because most of the time

04:07these questions fall into the water

04:09because we already know the planet.

04:10It seems the little prince

04:12talking about the planets,

04:13I hear it,

04:15the asteroids and more.

04:16But is there any study

04:18on where it could fall?

04:19And yes, you see,

04:21I'm talking about asteroids.

04:22Didn't you read it, guys?

04:24Yes, yes.

04:25And well,

04:27I tell myself,

04:28you are the little prince

04:30of Buendía 24.

04:31There is an estimate

04:33of where it could fall.

04:34I'm not a big fan of that estimate

04:36because imagine

04:37that if we are still far away

04:39from knowing

04:40a certain science,

04:42what is the probability

04:43of the impact there,

04:45or if it is going to impact or not,

04:46the first estimations

04:48show a kind of strip,

04:50yes,

04:52of belt

04:53that goes through

04:55more or less

04:56the equatorial area of the Earth,

04:58which goes from the Pacific Ocean

05:00passing through

05:02the north of South America,

05:03Ecuador,

05:05Colombia,

05:06north of Brazil,

05:08part of the Atlantic

05:09and part

05:11of the south of Africa.

05:13That a priori

05:14would be

05:16the first estimations

05:17of possible impacts.

05:20Of course.

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