- 9 months ago
Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan BI Rate di level 5,75%. Bank Sentral juga menahan Suku Bunga Deposit Facility sebesar 5% dan Suku Bunga Lending Facility 6,50%. Dengan demikian, BI Rate bertahan di level 5,75% sejak Januari 2025.
Bank Indonesia juga akan terus mencermati prospek inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi, dalam memanfaatkan ruang penurunan suku bunga dengan mempertimbangkan pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah. Adapun, kebijakan makroprudensial dan sistem pembayaran diarahkan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan.
Sementara itu, Otoritas Jasa Keuangan mencatat, pada Desember 2024 pertumbuhan kredit tetap melanjutkan pertumbuhan dobel digit sebesar 10,39% secara tahunan, menjadi Rp7.827 triliun. Dimana dari jenis penggunaan, kredit investasi tumbuh tertinggi, diikuti kredit konsumsi dan kredit modal kerja.
Bank Indonesia juga akan terus mencermati prospek inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi, dalam memanfaatkan ruang penurunan suku bunga dengan mempertimbangkan pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah. Adapun, kebijakan makroprudensial dan sistem pembayaran diarahkan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan.
Sementara itu, Otoritas Jasa Keuangan mencatat, pada Desember 2024 pertumbuhan kredit tetap melanjutkan pertumbuhan dobel digit sebesar 10,39% secara tahunan, menjadi Rp7.827 triliun. Dimana dari jenis penggunaan, kredit investasi tumbuh tertinggi, diikuti kredit konsumsi dan kredit modal kerja.
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TVTranscript
00:00Yes, hello viewers, how are you today straight from my IDX Channel Jakarta studio,
00:25I am Prasetyo Wibowo, welcome back to our market review,
00:28where we will talk about the issues that are the driving force of the economy in Indonesia.
00:31You can also watch our live streaming on IDXChannel.com
00:35and let's start our market review.
00:47Bank Indonesia is back to maintain its 5.75% shareholding in February 2025.
00:54The Central Bank's decision is still consistent with the direction of monetary policy
00:58to ensure that the rate of inflation remains controlled and supports sustainable economic growth.
01:05The Council of Bank Indonesia on 18th and 19th of February 2025
01:13decided to maintain its 5.75% shareholding.
01:22The Deposit Facility Flow rate is still 5% and the Lending Facility Flow rate is still 6.5%.
01:34This decision is consistent with the effort to ensure that the inflation rate of 2025 and 2026
01:43remains controlled in the target set by the government, namely 2.5% plus or minus 1%.
01:53Thus, the statement of Bank Indonesia Governor Periwar Jio
01:57in connection with the results of the meeting of the BI Governor's Council
02:00which decided to maintain the Birek Bunga Adjuan tribe at level 5.75%.
02:07The Central Bank has also maintained a 5% Deposit Facility Flow rate
02:11and a 6.50% Lending Facility Flow rate.
02:15Thus, Birek has remained at level 5.75% since January 2025.
02:23Bank Indonesia will also continue to respect the prospects of inflation and economic growth
02:28by taking advantage of the Bunga tribe's decline by considering the movement of currency exchange rates.
02:34However, macro-prudential policies and payment systems are directed to support sustainable economic growth.
02:43Meanwhile, the Financial Services Authority noted that in December 2024
02:48the credit growth continued to grow by 10.39% per annum to Rp7,827 trillion.
02:58From the type of use, the highest growth investment credit is followed by consumption credit and working capital credit.
03:06From Jakarta, IDX Channel coverage team.
03:15Yes, Mr. Mirza, the following we will convey data for you related to the movement of inflation
03:19as it becomes a constant and also from the Central Bank.
03:22You can watch the whole thing on your television screen.
03:25Okay, we will see what the movement of inflation is like.
03:28We see that in January 2025, there was a monthly deflation of 0.76%
03:37while the annual movement still has an inflation of around 0.76%.
03:43The trend tends to decline, the inflation of monthly and annual movements.
03:48And then what about the movement of currency exchange rates?
03:52This is from 6 to 19 February 2025.
03:58Still lagging at Rp16,357 on February 19, 2025.
04:07That's it for the movement of currency exchange rates.
04:12Yes, Mr. Mirza, to discuss our topic related to BI, hold on to the level of 5.75%.
04:18We have connected via Zoom with Mr. Yusuf Rendy Manilet.
04:22He is an Investor of Core Indonesia.
04:24Hello, Mr. Yusuf, how are you?
04:27How are you, Mr. Pras?
04:29Yes, thank you for taking the time and joining us via Zoom.
04:33There is Mr. Bambang Eka Jaya, Deputy Chairperson of DPP Royal Estate Indonesia.
04:37Hello, Mr. Bambang, how are you?
04:40Good, good, Mr. Pras, Mr. Yusuf.
04:43Always healthy for all of us.
04:45Okay, thank you too.
04:46Greetings and let's just review this.
04:48Mr. Yusuf, Bank Indonesia has again decided to hold the BI rate at 5.75%.
04:53Now, is this in accordance with the consensus of the economy itself so far?
04:58Yes, actually, if we look at the BI steps, especially in the previous month,
05:03the BI policy steps to maintain the rate at the same level
05:08relative to the market expectations,
05:13it means that the BI has previously suddenly reduced the rate.
05:19And now, if we look at the BI space to maintain the consensus rate,
05:25it is also relatively open.
05:27Looking at, for example, the main indicators,
05:30such as inflation, which is still within the range of the target
05:36that was stated by the BI itself.
05:40Indeed, at the moment, if we look at the challenge,
05:43the challenge is still in the exchange rate value,
05:47which is still at the depreciation level.
05:50Only if we pay attention,
05:53I think the BI values the transmission from depreciation to weakness
06:00or inflation increase in the country,
06:02it is relatively still limited,
06:04so that the bank has decided to maintain the rate at the same level.
06:13So, I think this is still in accordance with the consensus of the economy in general,
06:18the BI steps that maintain the rate at the same level.
06:21Okay, this is still in accordance with the attitude of the economy,
06:26that the rate of depreciation from the Central Bank of Indonesia will still be maintained.
06:30Now, from the businessman,
06:31how does Real Estate Indonesia see it?
06:33Before discussing its relationship with Suku Bunga Acuan,
06:36what is the latest update from the property sector in the second month of 2025, Mr. Bambang?
06:43Yes, if we look at the property sector,
06:45of course, because as a basic need next to food,
06:49it will always be in need.
06:52And according to the BI rate, which is maintained at 5.75,
06:57we see that there must be a lot of basics to decide on that.
07:01We only see, actually, as a businessman,
07:04we must hope that it can go down so that the purchasing power of the community will also be better.
07:11Then, secondly, we see that the BI also gives an incentive to the property sector,
07:19where banks that participate in property financing,
07:24the minimum requirement is increased,
07:27the value is around 23.19 trillion,
07:32the target is up to 80 trillion.
07:35This means that the banking sector is given the opportunity
07:38to participate in the property sector up to more than three times.
07:43And this also creates a fresh wind,
07:47so that the purchasing power of the community,
07:49which is indeed for property, is always supported by the KPR,
07:53can grow more.
07:56Hopefully, that can be realized soon.
08:00Yes, it means that it is still in line with the hopes of entrepreneurs.
08:03But if we look at the maintenance of the Bung Acuan tribe in the last two months,
08:08with the current levels, if you hope that there will be a decrease again,
08:12will it have a significant impact,
08:15like the sales rate of the property itself in Indonesia?
08:19Yes, if the Bunga tribe is a given,
08:22it means that we cannot regulate what becomes the government's target.
08:26What we can do as an entrepreneur,
08:28of course, is to try to create a draw.
08:31One of them, we do a lot, for example,
08:34KPR subsidizes directly from the developer,
08:38so it is expected that the Bunga that was 5.7,
08:42we can reduce it to 3% or 3.5%,
08:48with funds from the developer itself,
08:51so that the purchasing power of the people can still grow.
08:56Okay, Mr. Yusuf, with the decision of the Bank of Indonesia,
09:00as you stated, consistent with the effort to maintain inflation,
09:04then how to stabilize the value of the exchange rate,
09:08but the rupiah level is still at 16,300,
09:11then the rupiah also happened to deflation in January,
09:16because there is also an incentive policy like the electricity tariff.
09:20How do you see it for the business sector?
09:24Yes, so actually, if we look at the value of the rupiah exchange rate,
09:28it is indeed a lot of donations by the global factor,
09:32because we know that right now the global is still waiting
09:36for the decision or policy that will be taken by President Trump.
09:41And the policy of President Trump
09:44will also determine the step of the Fed
09:47in reducing or maintaining the level of the exchange rate
09:52at the same rate.
09:58Fortunately, in Indonesia right now,
10:01the inflation is relatively low,
10:03so this is what I think gives room for the Bank of Indonesia
10:07to maintain the exchange rate at the same rate
10:11in February yesterday.
10:14So I think this is in accordance with the government's target
10:21in maintaining the rate of inflation.
10:24Well, if we pay attention,
10:26in the future, the Bank of Indonesia will also see
10:31whether this Trump policy will determine
10:37the increase in the rate of inflation in the United States or not.
10:41Because when, for example, he will influence inflation
10:46in the United States,
10:48then this will of course affect the step of the Fed.
10:51Well, this step of the Fed will also potentially affect
10:55the policy of Suku Bunga Acuan Bank Indonesia itself.
10:58But in general, if we look at the domestic,
11:01it seems that the BI is still relatively pro-growth.
11:05It means that the policy accommodates the need
11:09to promote economic growth
11:12and can also help the government
11:16in achieving macroeconomic targets in general.
11:21Okay, that's it.
11:22Indeed, if we look at it, the challenge is more to the global factor.
11:25Then if we look at the current conditions,
11:27the potential for the decline of Suku Bunga Acuan is still open or not.
11:31We will discuss later in the next segment.
11:34We will be right back after the break.
11:55Thank you for staying with us in Market Review.
11:58In the next segment, we will be sharing data
12:00on the risk of bank loans per December 2024.
12:03We will discuss the NPL growth, non-performing loans,
12:06then there is also NPL net and loan at risk
12:09from the bank in December 2024.
12:12We see that the tendency is down for NPL growth,
12:15then December also tends to fall.
12:18Then we also see that the loan at risk
12:20has fallen from November 9.82% to December 9.28%.
12:26The next is the economic growth of Indonesia
12:28which is also one that we need to discuss.
12:30It is still hanging at 5% from 2022-2023
12:35up to 2024 at 5.03% annually.
12:41Okay, let's continue the discussion with Mr. Bambang Ika Jaya,
12:44General Director at PPR Real Estate Indonesia,
12:46then there is Mr. Yusof Rendy Manilet,
12:48Researcher at Core Indonesia.
12:50With the current conditions, Mr. Bambang,
12:52what if there is a potential for the decline of Suku Bunga Acuan
12:57because BI has also indicated that there is an opportunity,
13:01even though we don't know the global conditions
13:03that Mr. Yusof said earlier,
13:05still imagine our BI rate movement.
13:08Please, sir.
13:10Yes, if we look at the global conditions,
13:12one thing is given,
13:14it means that we cannot adjust,
13:16what we can adjust is inside.
13:18We see for ourselves that the Prabowo government
13:21can be said to have a big vision for housing
13:26with a target of 3 million houses per year,
13:2915 million houses in its period,
13:32and all of that depends on the asset.
13:35We still have confidence that property growth
13:40can continue to grow.
13:42Especially now we see that
13:46housing focus is not only done by the Ministry of Housing,
13:51but there is also a special housing fund
13:54directly funded by the President's younger brother, Mr. Hasim.
13:58So it means they realize that property is one of the locomotives of the economy,
14:04and if the property moves,
14:06as we always say,
14:08more than 184 industries will move,
14:11including banks, construction materials,
14:14even painting will move, even automobiles.
14:18And the second, the main thing is
14:21that property is a sector where the income
14:26will return to Indonesia's economy.
14:29Unlike, for example, automotives
14:32that have a lot of foreign founders.
14:35So that is one of the advantages of the property sector
14:38that is currently being pushed and pushed
14:41so that it can continue to develop
14:43and contribute to the economic growth sector.
14:49Hopefully in the future it will contribute more than half to 1%
14:54to reach 8%.
14:56Okay, Mr. Bambang.
14:57The OJK also noted that in December 2024,
14:59the credit growth continued to double digit growth,
15:0210.39% annually compared to what we saw in November.
15:08But is the correlation with the sale of the property itself
15:12quite synchronous?
15:15Yes, actually if we look at the property itself,
15:18the contribution to the national GDP is more than 14%.
15:23Okay.
15:24With such a large contribution,
15:26it means that the property sector is one that is funded
15:29and causes it to grow and develop.
15:32And we see in terms of taxation,
15:35the property sector also contributes more than 9%.
15:39More than around Rp100 trillion.
15:42Then what is perhaps extraordinary is that
15:45in terms of the national GDP,
15:48our overall contribution can reach 31%.
15:52So we see that overall,
15:55the property sector is still growing.
15:58Moreover, this has become a big event
16:01with a backlog of more than Rp9 million, almost Rp10 million.
16:05So we just have to wait for the right time.
16:09The government can move faster.
16:12The property sector is also expected to grow more.
16:17Okay, so the potential is still quite open.
16:20Mas Yusuf, 5.75% level of this GDP,
16:23is it comfortable enough for the business world right now?
16:26Remembering earlier, the property sector hopes there is still a chance
16:29or potential to be lowered again, Mas Yusuf.
16:32Yes, I think if we measure from the inflation indicator,
16:38especially last year,
16:40the government is relatively able to maintain the inflation level
16:44at the level that is targeted.
16:46So I think it can be a kind of initial model
16:50for the Indonesian banks in terms of monetary policy
16:58in general throughout 2025.
17:01Not only the interest rate,
17:03but also policies such as macro-prudential,
17:07which is also related to the real sector.
17:09Because at the beginning, Mr. Bambang has already said
17:13that banks are currently given a kind of space
17:17to require minimum requirements
17:21which will later be provided for the real sector,
17:26including the property sector.
17:28So if we look at the macro indicator in general,
17:33there is still a chance,
17:35especially if we talk about the domestic indicator,
17:38for BI to lower the interest rate.
17:42Well, if we measure from the global dynamics,
17:49this is what Mr. Bambang has said earlier,
17:51this is a given,
17:52this is what I think will be a kind of game changer.
17:55Because Trump's policy pattern
18:00does not seem too friendly
18:04in the context of US domestic inflation.
18:08So this will also be a kind of game changer
18:11for the Fed in the future
18:13in the formulation of the Bunga Acuan policy.
18:17And this will also determine the Bunga Acuan policy of BI.
18:21But I think if we talk about the context,
18:24I mentioned the pro-growth policy of BI
18:29there is still a chance for the Indonesian Bank
18:32to lower the Bunga Acuan rate
18:33as long as, once again,
18:35inflation is in the range that is targeted
18:38and also as long as the weakening of the exchange rate
18:41does not transmit to the increase in goods prices in the country.
18:47Okay, those are the two domains
18:49that have been seen and respected by the Indonesian Bank.
18:53Inflation, exchange rate,
18:56NPL growth, net,
18:58and also how the interest rate tends to fall.
19:01We will discuss this in the next segment.
19:03We will be back in a moment.
19:05We will be back in a moment.
19:37How about the data on December 2024
19:40related to NPL growth, NPL net,
19:42and our loan at risk,
19:44if we look at the banking sector,
19:46the interest rate continues to fall.
19:49Yes, if we look at the decrease in the NPL growth ratio,
19:55it shows the improvement in the credit quality
20:01provided by the banking sector to various sectors of business,
20:05throughout 2024.
20:09This is also supported by data from the loan at risk,
20:13which also fell from 10% to around 9.28%,
20:18which shows that the risk of credit problems
20:23is relatively more controllable.
20:26A factor that also supports this improvement,
20:29including I think there is a banking strategy
20:34in the context of credit restructuring.
20:37So this credit restructuring
20:40which then makes the debtor more flexible
20:43in making payments.
20:46In addition, I think the government and BI policies
20:51in supporting the business sector through fiscal incentives
20:54and accommodative monitoring policies
20:56are also one of the factors that contribute
21:01to the decrease in NPL growth rates
21:04and also the loan at risk that was mentioned earlier.
21:08However, if we talk about it,
21:10there are still challenges,
21:12especially for YMKM in general,
21:15because if we look at it,
21:18not all macro indicators,
21:20including the purchasing power,
21:22are back to the optimal level.
21:24So this will also determine the business synergies
21:28of the debtor, including property and also YMKM.
21:34And of course, the government has issued
21:388 economic policy packages.
21:41This can stimulate the economy
21:44so that economic activities are also relatively more fluid
21:48and this will certainly have an impact
21:50on the lower credit and loan at risk.
21:56In addition to the BI rate that is held at 5.75,
22:00how do you see this condition with the FLPP program?
22:04Is it still a game changer for the property sector?
22:08What do you see for the future in 2025?
22:13Although we see that in recent times,
22:18the government has done a lot of budget efficiency,
22:21but the property sector remains one thing that is maintained.
22:27And one of the things that is amazing,
22:29the Ministry of Finance has also committed
22:32up to 220,000 units for the FLPP,
22:37and it will be developed to reach around 320,000
22:41by combining it with BP Tapera and Perbankan.
22:48Because Perbankan also has a target to be a subsidized company.
22:54In the future, we hope that this will be a booster.
23:03And most importantly, the FLPP can be calculated according to the target.
23:09And in the future, we hope the government can reduce
23:15or facilitate this FLPP,
23:19not only to the housing sector for ASN or PNI,
23:28but also to the MSME sector.
23:30This is sometimes still difficult if it is related to Perbankan.
23:35They may not have a proper financial report,
23:39they may not have an interesting financial condition,
23:46but they are a target market that must be helped.
23:50In the future, with such a large FLPP,
23:53we also hope that the government will facilitate the debitors that will use it.
24:00With a rate of 5.75%,
24:03what kind of property will be quickly absorbed by the community?
24:08If we look at the FLPP, the market is very large.
24:13Especially the backlog of 9.9 million.
24:16They are always ready to absorb the market that we have built.
24:21The main problem is, of course, the funding must be ready.
24:26But in addition, the government should also be able to consider
24:31in addition to the non-subsidy,
24:35this non-subsidy is above the MSME,
24:38but they have funds that are also relative.
24:42Well, that also has to try to make breakthroughs
24:46so that the millennials who are currently reluctant to buy property
24:51can be redirected again to buy property.
24:54One of them may be the promotion that property is one of the assets
25:00that can be used as an investment, not just for living.
25:04That is what we hope in the future, so that the market becomes wider.
25:08Okay, that's it.
25:09Related to the business sector,
25:11as it is closely related to the movement of the Bung Acuan tribe,
25:15it is hoped that in addition to the maintained BI rate,
25:17the potential for decline is also hoped to be reopened.
25:20In addition, there is a breakthrough in terms of incentives
25:23also given to the property business world
25:26so that the community can access it.
25:29Related to affordable prices
25:31and also access from the home location itself to the Indonesian community.
25:35Okay, I'm out of time.
25:37Mr. Bambang, Mr. Susuf Randy, thank you very much
25:39for the analysis update that has been delivered to the audience today.
25:44Good luck with your activities again.
25:46Good health, see you again, sir.
25:48Thank you, Mr. Susuf.
25:49See you again, Mr. Raz.
25:51Yes, audience, don't leave your seat
25:53because in a moment we will return with another interesting topic,
25:56the preparation of the UKM in mining management.
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