00:00This is Apropos, the day after seizing a second major city in eastern Congo, Rwanda-backed
00:08rebels are tightening their grip on Bukavu. M23 fighters captured the city of 1.3 million
00:14people on Sunday after it was abandoned by Congolese forces. With fears that the offensive
00:20could ignite a regional conflict, the international community has multiplied calls for a de-escalation
00:26and ceasefire so far in vain, as Emerald Maxwell explains.
00:33Vendors selling fruit and people milling about. A day after M23 rebel fighters entered the
00:39centre of Bukavu, the city appeared calm.
00:42We're less afraid now. The fear is still there but little by little we see more people moving
00:48about.
00:51The troops who enter do not bother anyone. You can go right past them and they will not
00:55stop you or ask for identification.
01:00The columns of fighters met with little resistance on Sunday as they arrived in the key city.
01:06But there are still signs of violence and the looting that took place by men, women
01:11and children, some of whom picked up weapons abandoned by retreating government troops.
01:18We want the authorities who are now in the city to help us with security. Here in Bukavu
01:24we have a serious problem with these young children who have already taken up arms. They
01:28are shooting in the neighbourhoods, preventing people from going to work. We ask the authorities
01:34in the city to take away their weapons so that every citizen can go about their daily
01:38activities as usual.
01:41The fall of the city of one million people gives the M23 fighters and Rwandan troops
01:47total control of Lake Kivu following their capture of Goma last month. Thousands had
01:53already fled Bukavu ahead of the M23's arrival. The conflict has so far displaced more than
01:59six million people in the region.
02:02Growing international calls have been made for Rwanda to end its military backing of
02:06M23, though it still denies that its troops are in the DRC, all vying for control of the
02:12country's trillions of dollars in mineral wealth.
02:15At the African Union summit over the weekend, leaders continued to call for a ceasefire,
02:20although they've been reluctant to take decisive action against M23 or Rwanda, which has one
02:26of Africa's most powerful militaries.
02:28For more, let's cross now to Thierry Verculon, associate researcher at the IFRI's Africa
02:36Centre. Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening. As we know,
02:41one and a half million Hutus fled to Congo after the genocide in Rwanda. So for the Rwandan
02:49president, do they still represent a threat? What is the root theory of this current violence?
02:56Well, the Rwandan president is indeed justifying his support, his military support to the M23
03:06because of what is called the armed group, that is called the FDLR, and indeed the FDLR
03:13are the legacy, I would say, of the people who committed genocide and who fled to Congo
03:23in 1994. The problem with this justification is that the FDLR group is supposedly about,
03:36I would say, 1,000, 2,000 fighters maximum, while actually the Rwandan army and even the
03:46M23 alone himself is twice the size of that armed group. And we've seen that the M23,
03:55with the support of the Rwandan military, has been able to defeat the Congolese army
04:00in Goma, plus the South African army, the South African troops that were present and
04:07some mercenaries. So it's not very credible to say, like the Rwandan president, that the
04:15FDLR constitute an existential threat to Rwanda. Definitely Rwanda is not threatened by the
04:24FDLR, who are much too weak to do that.
04:29Anna, as you suggested there, the M23, it's one of nearly 100 different militia operating
04:36in eastern Congo. Why does the region remain so unstable?
04:41Well, the region is unstable for the past 30 years because there is an economy of, a
04:50predatory economy that is very useful for a lot of stakeholders and that enables armed
04:58groups to fund themselves, but also enables the people behind the armed groups to make
05:06a lot of money. And therefore, the centre of that system of conflict is the predatory
05:15economy in the Great Lakes. And that's why it is so sustainable over the past 30 years.
05:23And the African Union, it's highlighting concerns that Congo could break up. Is that where this
05:29conflict is heading? Is this going to lead inevitably to a wider war, do you believe?
05:35Well, we have been in that situation at the end of the 90s. So what we are seeing now
05:43is kind of the same scenario that the one that happened in the late 90s. And we see
05:50that there are already several foreign armies who are involved in that conflict. As I mentioned,
05:56the South African army was deployed in North Kivu. There is a Burundian army who is deployed
06:03in South Kivu. And now there is the Ugandan army, which is at the border, but the son
06:12of President Museveni threatened actually to move into Congo with the Ugandan army.
06:19So we can see the rhetoric, at least it's a rhetoric of a regional war. And the past
06:27experience unfortunately is also in that region, is also an experience of regional war. That's
06:32why everybody see basically the same type of scenario repeating itself.
06:38And M23, it also captured parts of this region for the first time back in 2012. Now, it did
06:45withdraw following pressure from the US and others. That pressure included sanctions that
06:50were placed on Rwanda at that time. So what is happening here? Are these militants taking
06:57advantage? Do you think of the fact that the Trump administration and Europe also, it's
07:02almost entirely consumed by conflict elsewhere?
07:05Yes, definitely. The international context is not the same now. It's very different from
07:13what it was in 2012 when the M23 took over Goma, as you mentioned. Immediately in November
07:232012, immediately after Goma was taken over by the M23, there were international sanctions
07:32against Rwanda by the US, by the European Union, et cetera. Now we don't see those sanctions.
07:40There are some talks about sanctions, but they have not yet materialized first. Secondly,
07:49also the other difference is that in 2012, the UN played a major role, both diplomatically
07:59and militarily in the Kivus. Now we see that the UN and the MONUSCO, the peacekeeping mission
08:07of the UN, has absolutely no initiative and is almost absent of that conflict. And thirdly,
08:18there is definitely the Trump administration that is obsessing everybody. And therefore
08:29the Congo problem of the M23 problem is not, of course, on the agenda or not much on the
08:36agenda. So the very different international context between 2012 and now explains why
08:45there is actually not yet sanctions against Rwanda. And the UN is not supposed to be doing
08:55something because, as I said, they have a peacekeeping mission on the ground. It's actually
09:00not active at all.
09:03What are the implications of all of this, this ongoing violence for civilians? Hundreds
09:07of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes in eastern Congo.
09:12Yes, no, definitely. Each time there is fighting there, there is mass, massive displacement
09:22of population. And the M23 order the people to leave the camp around the city of Goma.
09:30That means several hundred, several, about four or five hundred thousand people. And
09:42they have basically nowhere to go, really. And also it creates a very serious security
09:51problem in the cities of Goma and Bukavu, because they are big cities, more than one
09:58million people. And as the police is as left and they are no local authorities, the risk
10:07of looting and the risk of crime is very high. And there will be, as it was mentioned in
10:15your in your reporting, that there is already some crime problems, some insecurity problems.
10:21So it's very difficult to have major cities without police and security.
10:28And of course, the consequences are dangerous.
10:33Thierry, we'll have to leave it there for now. We do really appreciate your analysis.
10:38Thank you so much for joining us on the programme this evening. That's Thierry Verculon, he's
10:42associate researcher at the IFRI's Africa Centre. We'll leave it there for now. Do stay
Comments