Sunland Park Derby 2025: Highlights and Predictions

SportsGrid

Watch Sunland Park Derby 2025: Highlights and Predictions - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00The Sunland Park Derby, they'll go a mile and a 16th.

00:03It's a $400,000 purse.

00:05And Alexa, we can start with the number four getaway car

00:08for trainer Bob Baffert.

00:10We'll see Baffert or some of the big name trainers

00:13sometimes send maybe like their C-string horses

00:17out to some of the smaller tracks

00:18because they're so loaded with really good horses.

00:21They want to separate them all over.

00:22I mean, this horse was fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

00:26Yeah, and this is kind of cool.

00:28I like this race being at Sunland,

00:31kind of a smaller circuit,

00:32gives some of the smaller guys a chance to bring their best.

00:36But then, like you said, the big guys will bring over

00:39their C-stringers to try to pick up points too.

00:41I don't know if I'd call getaway car a C-stringer though.

00:43I mean-

00:44He was like the eight.

00:45When he started, he won his first couple of races.

00:47He was the best of the two-year-olds for Baffert early on.

00:50Yeah, yeah, he was.

00:52I mean, he ran really well,

00:54has run in really difficult races,

00:55was great on American Pharoah, Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

00:59You know, but I think Bob just saw this as an easy way

01:03to try to go pick up 20 points.

01:05You know, he already has 16 points on the Derby leaderboard.

01:08So if he wins this, he'll be really close.

01:11He wouldn't even have to win another race,

01:13just like decently placed in another prep race

01:15to secure a spot.

01:16So probably the one to beat.

01:18But I also like the number one,

01:21it's my birthday, who's 20 to one.

01:24This is a long shot, undefeated in two starts,

01:26much lower level than today's Derby.

01:28However, speed figures,

01:29absolutely competitive with the rest in here.

01:31So I wouldn't discount him.

01:33Moving from a sprint to a route

01:35with trainer Robertino Deodoro,

01:37who wins 29% of the time with this move.

01:40And he has a blazing fast workout

01:42to back this all up last week.

01:43So at 20 to one odds,

01:44I feel like you just throw that one in there.

01:46You see Timeform has him leading the field,

01:48but I don't see there being that much pressure on him.

01:52I think he could stay the court

01:55and be the leader in here.

01:57David Aragona, one of our colleagues from Daily Racing Form

02:00actually likes this horse too, Alexa.

02:02He put him right on top in the race by, in the race.

02:05He was braver than I was.

02:06I was like, I don't really wanna tout him on top,

02:09but all right, go David.

02:11Right, so you, and who are a couple of the others

02:13that you liked underneath?

02:15Yeah, I like Take Charge Tom,

02:16the number six, eight to one.

02:18Like It's My Birthday, another undefeated contender

02:21from the Robertino D'Odoro Barn,

02:23who has been running at these smaller circuits

02:25with convincing speed figures.

02:27There, I just think Take Charge Tom,

02:31wow, that's hard to say.

02:31Take Charge Tom can sit off the pace of it more

02:33than some of these other speedsters in here.

02:36Another one, McKenzie Street, the seven,

02:38similar to Getaway Car,

02:39has been running at major tracks

02:41and some high level racing.

02:42So has a leg up on some of this field

02:44from a class level standpoint.

02:45Kind of feels like you have Getaway Car, the four,

02:48who's the one to beat.

02:49And then the next tier of contenders

02:51would be the number eight, Touchy, for Wesley Ward.

02:55I have some concerns with him.

02:58He's multiple stakes placed,

02:59but this is his first start beyond six and a half furlongs.

03:03So he'll have to show us he can go this far.

03:05And I think he's gonna take a good amount of money.

03:08And then the seven, McKenzie Street,

03:10is probably another one that's in that top tier.

03:12He's multiple grade one placed.

03:14I mean, this is a horse who's faced really nice company,

03:17but the question with, I think, all three of those runners,

03:20the four, the seven, and the eight,

03:22they were all horses, Alexa,

03:24that were kind of like the kid who's precocious, right?

03:30Who's really good early on,

03:31but then as everybody starts to get older and catch up,

03:34maybe not so far along

03:36and maybe not so far ahead of everyone.

03:38I kind of get the sense that these three horses

03:40were that type of runners

03:42where they were ahead of everybody early.

03:44I don't know if now they're quite as good

03:47as some of the others have caught up,

03:49but those three, to me,

03:51feel like the horses to absolutely beat,

03:54but that might be different than the horse to bet.

03:56Because for me,

03:57I want to talk a minute about the number nine, Caldera.

04:00He's only started three times

04:02and he showed improvement in each of those starts.

04:05That's what I love.

04:06He's had the ability to sit off the pace a little bit,

04:09but in their most recent race, Alexa,

04:10they just got aggressive with him

04:12because they thought he was probably the best horse in there.

04:15So I like the outside draw.

04:16He can sit, he can pass horses too.

04:18Remind us one more time,

04:19go through your top four picks

04:20as we've got about 30 seconds left in show.

04:23Yep, I've got Getaway Car on top over It's My Birthday,

04:26Take Charge Tom, and McKenzie Street.

Category

Transcript

Recommended