00:00INDONESIA
00:05Good morning, viewers, for those of you who have just joined us.
00:08You are now watching MarketBuzz, where in this segment, we will be reviewing information about the capital market along with the sources.
00:15But before that, we will present some of the sentiments in the following Spotlight market.
00:19What we highlight, viewers, is that there is an IASG that has strengthened to the position of 6,645.
00:25It rose after five consecutive days of sharp correction.
00:29And the strength is led by a number of blue chips.
00:32The Telkom, Pemiersa, or TLKM, became the main supporter of IASG with a strength of 7% in one day.
00:38Then there is the infrastructure sector, which led the strength with an increase of 3%, of course, also supported by Telkom shares.
00:45We go to the economic agenda.
00:47There is the United States, which released a federal budget, then claimed unemployment.
00:51From the European Union, the monthly ECB report, the Brutto-Quartel 4 domestic product from the UK,
00:57as well as the consumer price index from Germany, circulating money from South Korea, and inflation expectations from Australia.
01:04Then, what is the news of EMITEN, which should be the attention of Pemiersa or Agenda?
01:10There is DEWAR, General Meeting of Stockholders, and the Agenda of EMITEN is indeed a bit quiet for trading on this Thursday.
01:18We update the position of the Asian Stock Exchange, which may be a sign of opening up trade.
01:22Will it continue the strengthening of Pemiersa or vice versa?
01:25And the strengthening of the Asian area, where Nikkei Japan, based on the data we collected, is expected to rise by about 1%.
01:31Singapore Shred Time, a thin rise of 0.02%.
01:34South Korean KOSPI, a rise of 0.74%.
01:37Hong Kong Hang Seng, a rise of 0.88%.
01:41Those are the brief reviews from Pemiersa on the Asian Stock Exchange update this morning.
01:52Pemiersa, the Telkom is back and the price is down by 7% in a day.
01:57How is the prospect? We will review it this morning with Mr. Ezzarido Ibnutama,
02:02Chief Economist at Hakorindo Securities Indonesia.
02:05Good morning, Mr. Ezzarido.
02:08Good morning.
02:10Good morning, Mr. Ezzarido. Thank you for joining us this morning.
02:13Let's get straight to it. We reviewed the Index of the Asian Stock Exchange,
02:15which after 5 consecutive days of falling, finally rose.
02:19How is the opportunity of the Index of the Asian Stock Exchange supported by the Blue Chips Stock Exchange for Thursday?
02:27For Thursday, it looks like there will be a rebound for the short term only.
02:39We have seen that the majority of Blue Chip stocks have undervalued yesterday
02:50because the sentiment in the country is lacking compared to other countries.
02:57But with this undervaluation in the last two weeks,
03:06our Blue Chip stocks look very interesting.
03:11Especially, we have seen some good release reports for the full year 2024, such as Telkomsel.
03:28You evaluated the Telkom stock, which rose and fell by 7% in a day.
03:33What is the main sentiment of this Telkom stock, Mr. Ezzarido?
03:36For Telkomsel, we see that the sentiment is from the increase in efficiency.
03:47Because the increase in efficiency has an effect on their dividends as well.
03:58Maybe on the market share side, Telkomsel is the biggest,
04:03and they do have a little competition on the other side of the competition that is about to enter Indonesia.
04:18But, if we look at the report that was quite good yesterday for Telkomsel,
04:27Telkomsel is still one of the biggest dividend players in Indonesia.
04:34So, you see that efficiency will affect the energy that is not yet released for the full year 2024.
04:41So, based on the consensus, Telkomsel stock can reach 23 trillion rupiah.
04:47Is that also what arouses the optimism of the market players in this stock,
04:52so that it fell by 7% because they are waiting for a financial report that is likely to meet expectations?
05:01The majority of sentiment should be like that.
05:05Because Telkomsel investors are waiting for a financial report.
05:16Because Telkomsel is one of the biggest dividend players in the Indonesian stock exchange.
05:24So, the majority of investors see that Telkomsel is the main option for increasing efficiency
05:42and also to get quite large dividends this year.
05:50Okay, Mr. Ezza.
05:51Then, if we talk about the clean coal, which according to the previous consensus is 23 trillion rupiah,
05:56is this actually an impressive number or not?
05:58What if it slips because it hasn't been released yet?
06:02What is your projection like?
06:06We see that the consensus is a bit too optimistic, but not far-fetched.
06:19A bit too optimistic, but not far-fetched.
06:24We do have a consensus.
06:27So, the consensus of analysts is 23.62 trillion rupiah,
06:32but we have a consensus of 22.8 trillion rupiah.
06:42So, the net profit margin is a bit stable in our opinion for this year.
06:51Okay. Not impressive, but more stable.
06:57Yes, we see that Telkomsel should have a more stable efficiency,
07:02but according to other analysts, the efficiency will increase this year.
07:09We will see if we are right or the consensus is right for this year.
07:16Okay.
07:17What is the movement of Telkom's share price in the last few months?
07:22For example, we see that the year-to-date has dropped by 12.55%.
07:26Then, if we look at this morning's pre-opening,
07:31when it rose by 7%, the profit-taking has dropped by 4.5%.
07:37What is the investment strategy of Telkom?
07:41Actually, the telecommunications sector is very mature.
07:52Because if we look at the majority of market share in Indonesia,
07:59the majority of people, whether it's urban or rural setting,
08:02people already have Wi-Fi, people can have access to telecommunications.
08:10Telecommunications towers as well.
08:13So, if we see that there are a lot of competitions
08:23that want to enter Indonesia, such as Starlink,
08:26such as Elon Musk's Starlink,
08:29it becomes one of the threats to players who are already mature.
08:37Maybe what is being discussed is that Telkom will probably cooperate
08:43with Starlink to enter Indonesia.
08:46But if we look at it, Starlink has entered Indonesia as well.
08:52So, there are a few competitions from outside that will enter
08:55and it becomes one of the threats to Telkomsel's market share
08:59which is indeed one of the highlight points for their investors.
09:07With that condition, what is the recommendation for Telkom right now
09:10that has dropped again by almost 5%?
09:17In our opinion, in the telecommunications industry,
09:21we have to look at the TOWR.
09:26Oh, it's more interesting for TOWR than Telkom?
09:31Yes.
09:33Okay, it's more interesting for TOWR than Telkom.
09:37We will discuss that later.
09:39What do you mean by that?
09:41We saw that Telkom rose by 7% yesterday,
09:43and this morning the profit taking dropped by 5%
09:46to around 2,360.
09:48Thank you, Mr. Mirsa. We will be right back.
09:52Thank you, Mr. Mirsa, for joining us.
09:53We will continue our discussion with our analyst this morning.
09:58Mr. Mirsa said that TOWR is more interesting than Telkom.
10:02Is that true?
10:08Maybe if we look at it from a technical point of view,
10:12TOWR is indeed a correction,
10:17but in RSI it has formed a positive divergence.
10:21So, we are confident that TOWR in the medium term
10:26will rebound and will reach the closest price resistance.
10:41What is the closest resistance level?
10:47Mr. Ezzar, what is the closest resistance level?
10:50It looks like it's around 630.
11:01It's already at 600.
11:03The psychological level is 600 with a 1.64% weakness at the beginning of trading.
11:07The opening this morning, TOWR fell.
11:09How is the strategy?
11:11Is it in the 600 position or is there a level of support that is the strongest resistance?
11:20Actually, we are already at a strong level,
11:25maybe even stronger, which is 595 in the zone.
11:37Okay, it looks like there is a communication problem,
11:39a signal with Mr. Ezzar.
11:41He said that there is a chance for TOWR.
11:44Mr. Ezzar, can you still hear my voice clearly?
11:50Okay, Mr. Mirsa.
11:51We will get back to Mr. Ezzar.
11:56Hello?
11:57Yes, please, Mr. Ezzar.
11:58So, how can the levels be repeated?
12:01The strongest level of support for TOWR right now is 595-600.
12:10So, TOWR is very worthy to be collected right now.
12:15Okay, 595-600.
12:17Level-by right now is given by TOWR.
12:19There is a discount.
12:20That's why it's interesting to enter according to Mr. Ezzar.
12:23What about Telkom?
12:26For Telkom, we see that for today it has been corrected by 5%.
12:39And it's possible that the euphoria that came to Telkomsel yesterday is gone.
12:49Oh, okay.
12:51It's just a short term, right?
12:53Yes, it's a very short term.
12:55It's possible that Telkomsel will drop to 2310.
13:01That's the strong support of Telkomsel.
13:04Okay.
13:05It's recommended if we talk about Telkom, which has risen yesterday, Mr. Ezzar.
13:08And the analysis from Mr. Ezzar is more interested in TOWR.
13:12Let's go to the selection shares.
13:13And the graphics as follows.
13:15We summarized Mr. Ezzar's shares.
13:17Some of Mr. Ezzar's shares are recommended.
13:19There is Cuan, which is recommended by Spekulatif Buy.
13:22Then there is a brand recommended by Spekulatif Buy, AADI.
13:28Telkom, Mr. Ezzar, Buy on Witness.
13:30Let's review one by one first.
13:32Telkom is also still in Buy on Witness.
13:34Mr. Ezzar, you said earlier that the moment has passed.
13:39Or because you saw the opening this morning,
13:42that's why you said, yes, the moment has passed.
13:45Last night, it was still Buy on Witness, right?
13:48That's right.
13:49Because as I said before the market opening,
13:52the sentiment is that we see that the rebound for the short term
13:59should continue with a correction that is not as deep as this.
14:03If the correction is as deep as this,
14:09it is possible that it will continue to fall to the 2360 that I mentioned earlier.
14:20Okay.
14:22So it is possible that this very significant correction,
14:31if the support has passed,
14:33if the support has passed from 2370,
14:39then the bearish sentiment is overtaking the bullish sentiment.
14:44So indeed, Telkomsel is not too worthy to be bought right now.
14:51We have to adjust our strategy according to what is happening in the market too.
14:58Okay.
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