Insight on Santa Anita Race: Field Dynamics & Strategies

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00:00So, we'll head on over west to Santa Anita.

00:03We'll talk about the smallest field of the three races we're going to discuss, but we

00:08have the two-year-old champ from last year who's going to be in this race, the Breeders'

00:12Cup Juvenile winner, Citizen Bull.

00:14We'll talk about him in just a moment.

00:16Let's start with Mattacat Road, and what makes this particular race tough, Alexa, five horses

00:21in here, three of them, the one, two, and three, are all trained by Bob Baffert.

00:26So when you have multiple horses like this, they've all shown some speed, like they can

00:31be forwardly placed, but I think this is the one that is going to be sitting, because he's

00:36actually shown that he can pass horses, and I think that could be a key in a small field

00:40like this.

00:41If a couple of them are jockeying for position, he can sit off a little bit, and I think the

00:46pace projector kind of has it accurate.

00:48He'll probably be in the third or fourth spot, and hopefully be passing some horses late.

00:53What do you think about Mattacat Road?

00:56So, just in general with this race, I think it's a really interesting race to talk about,

01:02but I think it's a little bit seedy.

01:04To me, it's less about-

01:05It's not a great gambling race.

01:06Yeah.

01:07It's less about the horses and more about what's the plan, what's the trainer intent,

01:14because these one, two, and three, Mattacat Road, Citizen Bull, and Rodriguez, all trained

01:18and owned by the same people.

01:21So it's like, what's going to be most advantageous for them, because in my opinion, those are

01:25really the three main contenders in here anyway.

01:27Absolutely.

01:28Totally agree.

01:29I would be shocked if either of the other two horses won this race.

01:32Yeah.

01:33Absolutely.

01:34They're very big long shots.

01:35And it's like, Citizen Bull already has basically enough points to go to the Derby.

01:40And he doesn't really need this race.

01:42He doesn't need it.

01:43I mean, every top five get points, so they're all going to get something.

01:47Even if he ran last, he'd get a couple more that just bump him into that Derby spot for

01:50sure.

01:51And then the other two don't have any.

01:54So for them, it might make sense.

01:56They just get to control the dynamic of this race so much.

01:59Absolutely.

02:00And so it makes it difficult for me to handicap and say, this is going to play out based on

02:04these horses' merits.

02:05No, you're very right.

02:06And as gamblers, it's what's so tricky about it.

02:10Who has the best chance of winning on Saturday is a different conversation than who is the

02:16most likely horse to run or win the Kentucky Derby.

02:20Yeah.

02:21Because if you're an owner, you want to get all three of those in the Derby.

02:24Absolutely.

02:25I mean, having one in the Derby is incredible.

02:28But yeah.

02:29So I mean, yeah.

02:30Mannequin runs a great horse.

02:31And I guess if we're trying to talk about tactics, this would be the one that would

02:36sort of hope that the two next door to him go hook up with each other.

02:40Because Citizen Bull is pretty quick, and that's how he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile,

02:43going right to the front end.

02:45And Rodriguez, who's the three right next door, he's also pretty quick.

02:50I will say one additional tool that we have, anything you can do when you're handicapping

02:56the races, like the more knowledge you can gain, it can only help you.

03:02Our friends at ExpressVet, XBTV, they actually show the morning workouts for a lot of these

03:08horses.

03:09They'll record them in the mornings and show.

03:11And I would say, I wasn't all that high on Citizen Bull's recent workouts in the morning

03:16compared to this horse, Rodriguez.

03:19He looks like an absolute monster in the mornings, really, really good.

03:24He earned a big, big speed figure when he won.

03:28And Alexa, I think if they wanted to have one of the three horses go to the front, it

03:33would be him.

03:34They could actually let him get the front in here and kind of dictate things.

03:37I agree.

03:38I like Rodriguez in here from a tactical standpoint.

03:42Won his last race by seven lengths just a few weeks ago at Santa Anita, so definitely

03:47That's who I have on top for this race.

03:50And unfortunately, Clocktower, I mean, shout out to Back to the Future.

03:55We want to save the Clocktower, no doubt about it.

03:57I just don't know if Clocktower has much of a shot in here.

04:00At the very least, he has speed.

04:02He's a grade three winner on the turf, but this is just a way tougher, like the three

04:06horses to the inside of him are way tougher than anything he's faced so far.

04:10Absolutely.

04:11And same with Valentine's Candy.

04:12I mean, I probably shouldn't admit this on TV, but I ate an entire box of those like

04:17the hearts.

04:18No, the nerds.

04:19Oh, the nerds.

04:20Okay.

04:21The Valentine's end cap got me.

04:22That's the most interesting thing I can say about Valentine's Candy.

04:23Although it does make sense that he's in here because the top five get money.

04:30He's going to get $4,000 even if he gets last.

04:32So yeah, make sense.

04:33They throw him in here.

04:34They get at least a month of bills paid a couple derby points.

04:38And great.

04:39We've seen crazy things happen in horse racing.

04:41One or two horses comes out of the gate wrong.

04:43One or two horses stumbles a little bit.

04:45Maybe it could set up for a long shot like Valentine's Candy.

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