Brexit Anniversary: Where Are We 5 Years On?

CGTN Europe

CGTN Europe spoke to Vicky Pryce, international economist and business consultant.

Transcript

00:00Great pleasure to welcome Vicky Price, the International Economist and Business Consultant.

00:04Vicky, what's your assessment of these past five years?

00:09Well, what we do know is that the population has not seen any great advantage of having

00:15left the EU. In fact, the recent opinion poll suggests that the majority think that it was

00:21a mistake and quite a lot of them would like us to go back in. The real problem, of course,

00:27and they're sensing it, is that the economy hasn't really done particularly well. Businesses

00:31know that they've lost out in terms of trade to the EU. We've seen the trade intensity

00:36of the UK go down when it's gone up since COVID in particular in other countries. So

00:40we've been left behind and that's a real issue and businesses have not invested anything

00:45like as much as they should have done since the Brexit vote. A lot of uncertainty for

00:49a number of years about exactly how we're going to leave, what it was all going to mean

00:53and we are seeing that in terms of productivity and longer term growth.

00:58The UK Labour government says it wants to reset the relationship with the European Union.

01:04What does that look like? What does that mean? What might it mean?

01:07For the moment, it's quite limited. It just means we'd like to cooperate in various areas.

01:11I mean, remember, we have actually rejoined the Horizon programme, so at least our scientists

01:17and academics can now work more closely. Again, we're paying something in, about two and a

01:21half billion a year to be members of that. But additionally, we've received a lot of

01:25benefits as well because more money is being paid to us because we have some very, very

01:30good universities. So we've rejoined that. We're talking about having a lot closer relationships

01:35on the defence side, which of course is very important right now, given the geopolitics

01:39that Europe is going through. Other stuff, though, is more limited. It's got to do with

01:44trade. How you can facilitate trade, given that there are restrictions there right now,

01:50partly because of regulatory requirements, no tariffs on goods, and yet you have to produce

01:55all sorts of papers to show where do the bits that have gone into your production come from,

02:02so the rules of origin, you've got regulations in terms of, and you need to prove it, in

02:07terms of both importing and exporting agricultural products, animal products. So that's been

02:13pretty bad for many small and medium-sized enterprises. They've just stopped doing anything

02:18with Europe, and if that is the case, if there is less trade, less competition, then you

02:22end up with less productivity, too. So if you can fix some of those things, you can

02:27move a certain way, but actually you need an awful lot more. One hopes, against hope

02:33perhaps, that when the trade and cooperation agreement is redone in 2026, we begin to negotiate

02:40it now. We need to renegotiate it. There could be something more, including movement of people.

02:45I think that would be so important.

02:46I mean, the calls to rejoin the EU have never really gone away, have they? I mean, is that

02:51realistic?

02:55It's going to take some time, but there are already calls, of course, on rejoining in

02:58a partial way. There are a number of countries that have either customs agreements with the

03:02EU, or they're in the single market. Of course, Labour has come to power, the current government

03:08saying no single market, no customs union, which is pretty limiting, but you can play

03:15around with it and be part of it. I mean, look at Switzerland. It's not really a member

03:19of anything, really, and yet it allows free movement, it abides by all the regulations,

03:26because it knows it needs to. So probably then, I think, that we'll join through the

03:32back door, if you like. I hope no-one notices it, and then carry on.

03:36Vicky, good to see you. Thank you very much for coming to see us. Vicky Price, the International

03:40Economist and Business Consultant. Thank you.

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