Netanyahu likely to resist troop withdrawal from Gaza, expert says

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00:00We can bring in Aaron Bregman. He's a Senior Teaching Fellow in the Department of War Studies

00:05at King's College London. Thank you so much for joining us on the programme today. So after 15

00:10months, we're finally at the doorstep of this long-awaited ceasefire. But now, of course,

00:15this deal has to be respected. I mean, how optimistic are you that all these

00:19parties will see this through? I believe that we will see an escalation

00:24between now and tomorrow morning. Both sides will try to fire their last shots before the

00:34ceasefire. I believe that the first phase will be fine, but the difficult phase or the difficult

00:45time will be the time when the parties will try to negotiate the next phase. This will be

00:52the difficult bit. Now, assuming that things move according to plan, Israel

00:59will have withdrawn its forces completely from Gaza during phase two of the agreement.

01:05So paint us a picture of how the Israeli military plans to carry this out.

01:10Well, I'm not sure that we will, I hope that we will get to this phase. Netanyahu will resist it

01:18for him to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip is to

01:25admit that he failed to achieve the most important aim of the war, to topple Hamas. It is to admit

01:33that Hamas is going to be in the Gaza Strip and rule it. But if things go according to plan,

01:40we will see Israel, Israeli forces getting out of the Philadelphia route separating the Gaza Strip

01:48and the Sinai. We will see them getting out of the Netzerim enclave and they will deploy

01:57along the Gaza Strip inside the Gaza Strip. Now, we know that under the deal, displaced Gazans will

02:06be allowed to return home to the north. But of course, 60% of the buildings have been destroyed

02:10and large swathes of the enclave are unlivable. It's still a hugely daunting uphill battle for

02:17Gazans even with the reconstruction plan in place. There are about 1 million Palestinian

02:25Gazans who left the northern part of the Gaza Strip and moved south, southwest. They

02:34are allowed to go back home as of tomorrow. We're talking about 1 million people. It's a big number.

02:41Those returning to the north by foot, on foot, could just walk to there and go into what used

02:49to be their house. Those who decide to return by car, the border will be opened by an American

02:58company to check that there are no arms there. And you are right, 60-70% of the structures of

03:07the houses in the northern Gaza Strip are destroyed. Israel turned Gaza into dust and

03:16rubble. There is an agreement that during the first phase, pre-fabricated houses

03:28will be put there and the Gazans will be able to stay there until the houses are rebuilt.

03:36Now, I wonder what you make of the timing of this agreement, because it's not the first time

03:42the same deal was proposed to Netanyahu months ago. And it can't be ignored,

03:45of course, that it comes just days before the new incoming US administration.

03:50The deal, of course, was devised, was put together by the Biden administration.

03:56This is the work of the Biden administration. But you needed Trump to say to Netanyahu,

04:04you have to take it also to Hamas, but mainly to Netanyahu. Biden was just too gentle.

04:14And Trump can tell Netanyahu to do it, and he did. And this is the price

04:25for Trump, who is going to be inaugurated on Monday.

04:29Now, this ceasefire and hostage release deal is, I think it's safe to say, far from Netanyahu's

04:35promised so-called total victory. How do you think Netanyahu and his cabinet are perceiving

04:41this outcome? I think that in my previous interviews on your channel, the last 15 months,

04:49I repeated the clear fact that there is not going to be a total victory there.

04:59That even after this war, there will be Hamas in the Gaza Strip, standing there and running

05:10the place until there is a replacement. For Netanyahu, it is very difficult because he,

05:16of course, promised a total victory. And therefore, Netanyahu, I believe, will try to

05:25stall, will try to block the transition from phase one to phase two, because in phase two,

05:36he is supposed to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and end the war.

05:42Aaron Bregman from King's College London, thank you so much for taking the time to

05:45speak to us today on the program.

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