Christmas: Christians see uncertain future in Syria

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00:00While Syrian Christians are also celebrating this Wednesday, even as they, along with other

00:04religious minorities in the country, face an uncertain future, the new leadership in

00:09Damascus, headed by the Islamist rebel group Hayat Taril al-Sham, has vowed to ensure religious

00:15freedom in the Sunni-majority country.

00:18However, some Christians are not convinced fearing the new leadership's ideology will

00:22mean their community's aspirations will not be taken into account in the transition.

00:28To talk more about the future for Christians in Syria, but also in the Middle East, we're

00:32joined by Dr. H.A. Helier, who's a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services

00:38Institute for Defence and Security.

00:40Thank you very much for joining us on France 24.

00:42We're going to start with Syria then, because on Tuesday, Christians held protests over

00:49the burning of a Christmas tree in Hama.

00:51Do you think that's an isolated incident, or is it likely we'll see more of these kinds

00:57of things?

01:00So thank you.

01:01Thank you for having me on your program.

01:03It's clearly an isolated incident.

01:05We haven't seen any others throughout the season thus far.

01:10So there's been one tree burning.

01:13We also saw a reaction from the new authorities that was pretty swift in terms of saying such

01:21things have to be condemned, that there'll be punishment of the perpetrators.

01:28So I think it's important not to try to extrapolate from a single incident what the future may

01:33hold.

01:34Of course, the future is a very uncertain one, because this is a transitional period

01:39after the fall of one of the most brutal regimes in the Arab world in my lifetime.

01:47And the way forward seems to be open to many different types of possibilities and potentials.

01:56A lot of good signals thus far from the new authorities.

02:00We all wait to see how these are translated into actual policies on the ground.

02:05But so far, good signals.

02:06OK, so we'll have to wait and see.

02:09But do you believe that the new leadership will and will be able to protect Christians

02:15and other minorities?

02:18So it's not so much what I believe.

02:19It's purely what we can judge on the basis of what's been said.

02:26But again, good speeches, good signals.

02:28But we wait to see about policies.

02:30Again, this is a very new time.

02:34It's a transitional process.

02:36They've been ruling Syria now for the past two weeks, not for the past two years or two

02:41months.

02:43The indications are that they want to build a pathway forward that includes all of Syria's

02:48communities.

02:50And of course, Syria's Christians are as Syrian as everybody else.

02:55They've made that clear.

02:57The new authorities have talked about, you know, the plurality of Syria.

03:01So the signals are fine.

03:03The signals, I think, are very good, actually.

03:06But how this actually plays out in the policy is what I think everybody is waiting for.

03:12Well, Lebanon has the biggest Christian population of any country in the Middle East, but that's

03:18been dwindling in recent years.

03:20Why is that?

03:24So proportionally speaking, it has the largest Christian population.

03:28It doesn't have the absolute largest.

03:30Of course, you have far more in other places.

03:34Why it's dwindling?

03:35Well, because Lebanon is going through an incredibly difficult economic period where

03:41anybody who's able to leave is more inclined to do so.

03:47And Christian communities have been going to places like France and elsewhere if they're

03:52able to, and they're doing so in significant numbers.

04:00Beyond that, you can talk about the difference in terms of birth rates from other communities

04:06as well.

04:07But typically speaking, you have, according to some reports, at least higher proportions

04:13of foreign passports among some communities in Lebanon than others.

04:18So they're able to leave more easily.

04:22But I'm not sure where you're getting at here.

04:25OK, well, what about the Christian population in Gaza?

04:28I mean, we've seen a similar phenomenon when many had already left before the October 7th

04:34war.

04:35It's obviously hard to imagine those people ever moving back, given the destruction.

04:41What kind of effects do you think this has when certain religious communities leave these

04:47countries?

04:48What kind of shifts does that give way to?

04:54So I want to zoom out for a little bit here.

04:58The main problem in Gaza is, of course, Israel's war on Gaza and a long running occupation

05:05that's been going on for decades.

05:07And Christian communities in Gaza, as well as throughout the Palestinian Occupied Territories

05:12and East Jerusalem, which is occupied, the West Bank, of course, have been complaining

05:18about the effects of the occupation and the war on Gaza as it pertains to their communities.

05:26And you've seen the Catholic Church itself come out incredibly publicly vis-a-vis the

05:32Pope over the last few days and the last year in terms of the impact of Israel's war

05:38on Gaza, as well as throughout, I have to say, the rest of the Occupied Territories.

05:43So that's what we're looking at here.

05:46The largest issue in terms of the problems and the makeup of society, they all stem from

05:54the fact that there's an occupation that's been going on since 1967, uninterrupted, and

06:01the incredible increase of violence, particularly in Gaza, but also in the West Bank, where

06:06Palestinians are being pushed from their villages and their lands being expropriated.

06:12You know, that's the huge elephant in the room, as it were.

06:17Of course, when it comes to the plurality of society, all of that is going to take a

06:24hit because the more people can leave under such pressure than I think the more they will.

06:32I don't agree, by the way, that they'll never come back.

06:35I think many of them would want to come back, would try to come back.

06:38But when it comes to Gaza, a huge amount would need to take place in order to make it habitable.

06:45And it is incredibly difficult for people to just live in Gaza right now, where you

06:50see horrific images of, you know, animals eating human remains because of the level

06:56of depravity that has been visited upon the occupied territory by the Israeli forces.

07:03OK, well, we can we can zoom out a bit if you want.

07:06I mean, what what hope do you think then there is for peace in this region?

07:14The issue is, frankly, about countries' policies.

07:18First of all, when you say peace in the region, you know, we might as well talk about peace

07:22in Europe, because the the fact that there's a war in Ukraine doesn't mean that there's

07:28war throughout the European region.

07:31And the Arab world more generally, thankfully, does not suffer from the same sort of war

07:37that is being visited on Gaza.

07:40But in terms of if I think I understand your question to be, will there be peace in the

07:46Palestinian occupied territories vis-a-vis the Israeli occupation?

07:52And it's as simple as that.

07:53If the Israeli occupation were to end, then I think that you would see a huge amount of

08:01normalization take place between the Israelis and their neighbors.

08:06This has been stated multiple times by the Arab states, not just over the last year,

08:14but over the last two decades at the very least.

08:18But hitherto, you haven't seen moves in that direction come from Tel Aviv.

08:23Rather, you've seen more expropriation of Palestinian territories.

08:29You've seen, you know, this new conflict that erupted when it came to taking territory in

08:36Syria, of course, Lebanon of the past year.

08:40So is there hope?

08:41There's always hope for peaceful resolutions to all of these conflicts.

08:46But there have to be sincere moves in order to move in that direction.

08:52And I think when you look at how the international community has responded, at least rhetorically

08:59over the past year, you look at the UN resolutions, you look at the United Nations Security Council,

09:03but also the General Assembly resolutions, it's very clear where I think world public

09:09opinion has gone.

09:11They see correctly Israel as occupying territory that is an illegal occupation of, that's,

09:17you know, been stated by the ICJ as well.

09:22And it's difficult to come to peaceful settlements with countries when they insist on breaking

09:29international law.

09:32So I think that that's where we have to move here.

09:35It's not simply about negotiating for peace.

09:37It's about holding everybody, whether it be the Palestinians or the Israelis or the

09:42Syrians or whoever it is, to a single standard, that of international law.

09:48And if we focus on that, I think that durable and a just peace can certainly take place.

09:54And that would be the interest of all of our security.

09:57All right.

09:58Dr. H.A.

09:59Helia from the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security.

10:04Thank you very much for your time.

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