00:00We look at this game between the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts and I'd be remiss if I
00:06didn't just acknowledge the stakes of this football game here today. In the AFC playoff picture,
00:14you kind of have to make a sacrifice if you're a team who's hoping to break the glass here,
00:20like a Miami, like a Cincinnati, because you need both of these teams to lose between Denver and
00:28Indianapolis, but I think you're rooting on a Colts upset in this one. You are hoping that
00:34the Colts can find a way, even if it puts them at 7-7, to hold Denver down from that possible
00:429-5 record. It's a tough backstretch there for the Broncos, so the potential where
00:49this upset makes the difference and all of a sudden a Denver team who could possibly be an
00:55underdog in their final three games of the season, it works out very nicely. One thing I think you'll
01:01see some success for today on the Indianapolis side is their kicking game. Their kicker, Matt Gay,
01:08has had a very good season so far, making 88% of his kicks. Last week though, or two weeks ago,
01:16I should say, they're coming off their bye, didn't have as many opportunities. So if you take a look,
01:22Matt Gay last week finishes one for one. It was the first time in a long time where he did not
01:28have higher than one and a half field goals made going to Denver altitude, which can always be a
01:35kicker's friend, and I think that's one of my favorite options today over on Sports Millions.
01:41You're talking about a kicker who ate nine games in a row of over or higher one and a half field
01:48goals made, and I think that's one of your better options here for Indianapolis. Expect certainly
01:55Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor to get going here. I think we could very well see a
02:00lower scoring game than anticipated right now between the Colts and the Broncos here. While
02:06both teams are coming off of the bye, we may see a little bit more in the way of the defenses
02:14being able to rebound. I don't think, I think we've seen an up and down flow so far for the
02:20defenses here between both Indianapolis and Denver, but I think that today that can keep
02:27this a little lower scoring. And it then may put some of the onus on Denver's rookie quarterback
02:32Bo Nix to attack in different ways. Bo Nix started the season where he was excellent
02:41running the football. It was one of his better weapons, and it was keeping defenses
02:46off balance. You look at his first three games of his career, five for 35, four for 25, and nine for
02:5347. He had multiple rushing touchdowns in those three game windows. But if you now look at his
02:59last four games, three for negative five, two for five, one for five, three for four, no volume,
03:08no workload, and it has caused an adjustment. Maybe the lowest number we've seen so far
03:15for Bo Nix on the ground today here on Sports Millions Pick'em, it's 15 and a half. And I
03:22think you go higher than that number. While I know Bo Nix has not been able to get over that number in
03:27his last four games combined, I think this is a nice chance to buy low against an Indianapolis
03:34defense who has struggled against mobile quarterbacks all season long. You look at their last
03:40game against Drake May, who went for 50-plus on the ground. Josh Allen went well over the
03:4650-yard marker. Justin Fields went over the 50-yard marker against his Colts. They've actually had a
03:52few more run-ins, I feel, than most teams typically do with mobile quarterbacks, even when they played
03:57Green Bay. It was one of the games that Jordan Love had missed, and we saw that end up being
04:02Malik Willis, who ran for 40-plus in that game. So I think today you go Bo Nix higher, 15 and a
04:10half rushing yards on Sports Millions Pick'em. Just to once again reset our two picks here today
04:17in the game between the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts, we're going to go
04:21Matt Gay higher, one and a half field goals made in a nice, lovely bounce-back spot where the
04:27environment should be a kicker's best friend. And then Bo Nix higher, 15 and a half rushing
04:33yards to get back to the ground game that made him very dangerous in multiple capacities to
04:40get his rookie season underway.
Comments