Trump's 'lack of strategic vision', close ties with Netanyahu could 'escalate' Israel-Iran conflict

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00:00Now, the chief of the UN's Atomic Energy Agency is heading to Iran, Rafael Grossi in the Islamic

00:05Republic for talks on the country's nuclear program. He's called for more monitoring at

00:10Iran's nuclear sites and is appealing to the Iranian leadership to resolve long-standing

00:16issues with the IAEA. Now, for more on this story, we can bring in Sina Azadi, Professor

00:22of International Affairs at George Washington University. Thank you so much for joining us

00:27on the program today. Now, Grossi is heading to Iran at a time when Donald Trump's return

00:33is inevitable. Is there an expectation that the president-elect will continue with his

00:37policies of maximum pressure when it comes to Iran?

00:43Well, there's a very good chance that he would initially restore the so-called maximum pressure

00:48campaign. That pressure never went away, but the Biden administration kind of seized

00:57the enforcement of some of the sanctions, including Iran's oil exports that, you know,

01:03Iran currently exports a lot of oil to China. So, I think, and we should expect that when

01:10Donald Trump comes in, he will resume that. He will try to cut off Iran's oil exports to China.

01:16But I also think that he's interested in having his own deal with Iranians. He has said it

01:23repeatedly. And in fact, the reason that he left the JCPOA was that he said he would,

01:31Iranians would come back and they would beg for a better deal with me, which didn't happen.

01:36So, I think we should expect that. I think he would try to get a new deal with Iranians,

01:40but that's yet to be seen. But given that Iran has firstly a

01:44change of leadership since Donald Trump was in office, this new leadership is desperate

01:49to engage with the West. It's desperate for sanctions relief. Could Iran go, do you think,

01:57to the table with the Trump administration, given that Iran's foreign minister today

02:02said back channels do exist with Washington?

02:07Well, back channels have always existed between Tehran and Washington. They never

02:11went away. But I think that the new administration in Tehran is genuinely interested in some sort of

02:19a deal with the United States because of the economic situation in Iran. And they understand

02:25that without the lifting of sanctions, they cannot improve the economy's situation. The

02:33people that the Pesashkian administration has brought on board with him, they have already,

02:40they've already been involved with the negotiations of JCPOA. His strategic advisor,

02:47who was the former foreign minister of Iran, is one of the architects of JCPOA. And the current

02:55foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was one of the nuclear negotiators. So, I think he has the right

03:01people in place. I think we have to wait for a more explicit green light from Iran's supreme

03:08leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. And I think there is a good chance that in the next few years, we see

03:15some sort of deal between the Trump administration and Pesashkian administration.

03:22Now, Sina, also since Donald Trump has been out of office, we've seen a shift in the landscape

03:26of the Middle East as well. We have Iran's former archrival now sort of has this cold

03:32sort of relationship with Iran. And I'm talking about Saudi Arabia, of course, that

03:38Khashoggi was brokered by China. So, clearly, they also would want to see

03:44sort of an engagement with Iran, wouldn't they?

03:48Oh, absolutely. When you look at the relationship between Riyadh and Tehran,

03:53it's just a few years ago, it was impossible to imagine this, that the vice president of Iran

04:00would go to Riyadh, they would shake hands with Mohammed bin Salman. I think the relationship

04:05has changed very much. The fundamental issues between Tehran and Riyadh, which is mainly

04:13that this geopolitical rivalry has not withered away, it is still there. But the good news is

04:19that they're talking and Iranians have learned they need Saudi Arabia. And the Saudis have also

04:27learned that any tension in the region would also harm their interests. So, I think they've

04:34taken a step back and they're not trying to instigate any conflict with Iran anymore.

04:41But do you think that there are fears that given Donald Trump's proximity to Israel's

04:46Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that he would allow Netanyahu to escalate tensions with Iran?

04:54Absolutely. I think because of his very close relationship with Netanyahu and his lack of

04:59strategic vision, he could give a blank check to the Israelis to do whatever they want. The

05:06Biden administration was successful in lobbying with the Israelis not to go after Iran's energy

05:13sector or the nuclear infrastructure. But my concern is that if Donald Trump comes in,

05:19he would just give a blank check to the Israelis. They could go after Iran's, as I said, nuclear

05:24infrastructure or energy sector. And I can tell you that the nuclear facilities are Iran's brightest

05:32red line. If the Israelis decide to go after those facilities, there's a very good chance

05:39that Iran could withdraw from the NPT. It could dash for a bomb, which would actually result in

05:46more and further conflict in the region. We'll see how things pan out. Asina Azodi,

05:52thank you so much for joining us on the programme today. Good to be with you.

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