00:00Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. What does this mean for Ukraine?
00:04What does it mean for NATO? What does it mean for Germany and Europe? I will be talking to
00:08Ben Hodges. He is a retired U.S. Army officer and served as a general in Europe. Ben, what was the
00:16first thing which come to your mind when you learned that Donald Trump will be the next
00:21president of the United States? I think probably two or three different things came to mind
00:28immediately. First, obviously, disappointment, because I really felt going into last night that
00:35Kamala Harris was going to win. I knew it would be close, but I really felt optimistic about her
00:42and also about my country, that we were going to pull back from the abyss. I really thought that.
00:49The other thing that I emotion was I felt foolish that I had so grossly underestimated
00:59how many people in my country would embrace him, knowing completely who and what he is.
01:09Nobody's confused about who and what he is, yet more Americans prefer that than the alternative.
01:17I feel foolish that I so grossly underestimated that. Ben, we have to talk about Ukraine, of
01:23course. What does this mean? What does it mean that Donald Trump will be moving back into the
01:28White House for Ukraine? Well, of course, my assumption, based on how he's acted and talked
01:35about Ukraine when he was in office and in the four years since then, and also how he dealt with
01:42Russia, I'm not encouraged. I don't see a positive development there for Ukraine, at least
01:52initially. Now, to be fair, the Biden administration wasted, I think, the last several
01:58years when we could have had a much stronger, more decisive policy, could have solved the Russia
02:04problem for Europe for decades. Instead, we didn't. They took an approach that was appeasement
02:11and only prolonged the conflict, and here we are. So, perhaps European leaders that will be able to
02:22put enough influence on Trump to explain that it's in America's interest that America not
02:28turn their back on Ukraine. It's in America's economic interest. And then also, of course,
02:34enough European countries will increase their own defense spending and investment and other things
02:41that that might be appealing to Donald Trump. But European countries should not do that to
02:48appease Donald Trump. They should be doing that for their own people. Because if Ukraine fails,
02:56it will be because the United States and Germany turned their back on Ukraine. And then you're
03:01going to see millions of Ukrainian refugees coming to Germany. You're going to see continued
03:07disruption of food and energy supplies. And you're going to see tens of thousands of Ukrainian
03:13soldiers absorbed into the Russian army. So, there's no positive outcome to any kind of
03:21negotiated settlement or to the United States turning its back. So, this is going to be a real
03:27test for Europe. Trump said that he would end the war in Ukraine within one day, maybe even before
03:35he comes to office. I mean, of course, the thinking behind that, or the fear for many,
03:40is that he would kind of offer a deal to Putin to say, you keep Crimea, maybe the Donbass.
03:47Do you think this might happen? Well, that sort of scenario certainly
03:53sounds like something he would do. I mean, to get the deal. That's exactly what he did with
03:58the Taliban. You know, I mean, he made a deal with the Taliban without informing the Afghan government
04:04or our allies that were there with us in Afghanistan for all those years. And so,
04:09I think that's exactly the kind of thing he is capable of doing when it comes to Ukraine.
04:15The difference is, first of all, I don't think the Ukrainians will go along with it. I mean,
04:21you know, they're not just going to do whatever the American president and the Russian
04:25president say. Secondly, I think that several European countries also will not just stand by
04:33and accept that kind of an outcome because they understand what it means. So,
04:40I am hoping that enough serious European leaders will be able to influence the president,
04:47the new president. And also, by the way, there's always been a lot of support in the Congress
04:53for Ukraine from the Republican side. People like Lindsey Graham or Chairman Mike Turner. I mean,
04:59these are very senior influential Republicans who care about the transatlantic relationship.
05:05And so, I'm not so sure that they'll just sit on their hands and allow Trump to walk away from it.
05:13I don't envision it being better, but it may not be as terrible as we fear.
05:18There were already reactions, like from the German member of parliament,
05:23who said in case Donald Trump kind of would stop supporting Ukraine, then Germany would
05:30need to jump in. Is this even feasible, that Germany or other European countries
05:35really would replace the support the US is offering right now?
05:41Well, of course, Germany looks like it may be forming a new government here in the elections
05:46very soon. And I've heard Friedrich Merz speak very clearly about his views about
05:54Ukraine and Russia. So, if it comes down to political will, the current coalition does
06:03not have it, but maybe a new coalition would. I'm not sure about UK. I think Italy, yes.
06:11France, at times. I mean, Poland, no question. Finland, no question. So, it might be a group of
06:22countries working together that could help fill some of the gap that the US might leave behind.
06:28And frankly, I can envision President Trump telling European leaders, hey, you need to fix
06:34this. This is your thing, or else we're out of here. Now, I hope that's not the case,
06:42but I can envision that sort of a conversation with Trump even saying we'll continue to provide
06:48nuclear protection and blah, blah, blah. But if you add together the industrial capacity of just
06:54the EU countries, forget UK, forget Canada, just EU countries, it's enormous. It dwarfs Russia's
07:04economic potential and current capabilities. So, to me, this is about political will, not
07:13Europe can't do it. And do you see the possibility that under a new German government,
07:18the will might be stronger? Absolutely. Absolutely. Completely.
07:25Vladimir Zelensky reached out to Trump immediately. Do you think it's the right
07:29approach to praise the commitment to peace through strength?
07:35Well, I think anybody who has paid attention to history knows that the only way you can be sure
07:41and have a sustained peace is if you are strong enough to defend that peace, to ensure it. I
07:48thought President Zelensky was smart to immediately reach out to President Trump. They've been down
07:56this road before together. So, it's not like they're just meeting each other when Zelensky
08:02was in office and Trump was the president. So, it's not like they don't know each other. I think
08:13that the Ukrainians are fighting for their life. And so, when you're fighting for your life,
08:21you're willing to reach out to anybody that might be able to help keep you alive. And so,
08:28certainly, it would not have been wise to publicly come out and say, oh, I wish it
08:34was still Biden or I wish it was going to be Harris. And frankly, as I said earlier,
08:39I think most Ukrainians feel let down by the Biden administration anyway.
08:43And then there's, of course, NATO, Ben. Donald Trump has threatened to leave the
08:47alliance a couple of times. Is he really able to do that?
08:52I believe that legally, he cannot just unilaterally pull out. But there is no law
08:59that requires him to do anything. So, he could continue to be disruptive or to ignore or
09:09to not lead inside the alliance the way that the United States has done in the past. And frankly,
09:19it was always to our advantage to be a leader inside the alliance. And hopefully, there will
09:25be enough people in the Congress that are Republicans that will impress on him. Hey,
09:30yes, of course, the other countries should be doing more. But here's why it's good for America
09:35to be in this club where you've got all these friends. And by the way, at least half of them
09:41are spending enough on defense and are always good to go with us to do things. So,
09:47from a practical standpoint, I think that he will not just completely turn his back on NATO.
09:57But this will be a challenge for Secretary General Rutte, who will have to do what Jens
10:02Stoltenberg did, which is figure out how to keep the alliance together in dealing with President
10:09Trump. I think Mark Rutte probably has the political talent and the leadership talent
10:14to be able to do that. But half of these problems that you and I are talking about, Enos,
10:22were made in Europe. They created this problem that Trump seized on and that many Americans,
10:29even those who love Germany, who love Ukraine, who love NATO, are frustrated about. And so,
10:39this is something for Europeans to fix. Donald Trump's party, the Republicans,
10:44didn't only win the White House, but also both chambers, right? Congress and the House,
10:50or the Senate and the House. And the Supreme Court, of course, is also kind of somewhat
10:55Trump-friendly. How worried, Ben, are you about Trump's government and the people he wants
11:02to appoint? With the backing of the Senate, he's able to basically pick whoever he wants.
11:08So, there's a couple of things here. First, yes, for sure, the Republicans
11:12will control the Senate. And that's who does the confirmations for judges, ambassadors,
11:19generals and admirals. So, that is a powerful place. And that's who also ratifies treaties.
11:26I think that he will be able to get, by and large, mostly who he wants. Although, in the Senate,
11:35the rules are that individual senators can block nominations, even if they're on the minority side.
11:42So, it's not going to be a total blank check, which tells me that Trump will probably
11:49end up using a lot of unconfirmed acting people at different levels, which inherently
12:01is a weaker position, obviously, than if someone has been confirmed. But they did that the last
12:06time he was in office as well. So, we'll see how that plays out. The court, this is a problem.
12:12For me, the Supreme Court was always the ultimate guardrail. And only in the last couple of years
12:18did I come to lose confidence in the court as an impartial, really blind justice,
12:26focused on the Constitution. Of course, there's always been differences. And you've had
12:32every administration tries to nominate people that they think are more
12:38philosophically aligned. I've never seen it where it was like this. And that does worry me.
12:45Of course, if he's got four more years, I would say, chances are he'll get at least one more
12:51court nominee, whether it's Alito or Thomas. I would imagine at least one more of those.
13:00And that will have an impact for the next 20, 30 years.
13:04So, Ben, finally, how did we get there? How did it happen that Donald Trump was reelected?
13:11Well, of course, when you're talking about 80 million people, there will be several different
13:16motivations. Part of it is people that are evangelicals would vote for anybody if they
13:26thought that that person would stop abortion or things like that. There are a portion of
13:37that 80 million that care only about their taxes and investment portfolio, so they could hold their
13:46nose. They would say his stupid policies or his vulgar manner, that won't affect me. What I care
13:52about is my portfolio. And so I think a lot of his supporters, obviously at the high end,
13:59are in that category. By the way, I've met a lot of Germans that felt the same way,
14:03that also supported Trump for their own portfolio reasons. And then there's a category of people that
14:11I think really support or can embrace this vulgar character because then it sort of frees them up
14:21to behave the same way, whether it's how they treat women, their racism. These things are now
14:29out in the open in a way that I have not seen, and I'm 66 years old. I've seen open racism that
14:36I haven't seen since I was a young man. And the treatment of women, and surprisingly, how many
14:45women are okay with it. That blows me away. There's not one explanation. I thought Kamala
14:54Harris was an excellent candidate. She did well in every facet, especially given the fact that
14:59she only had three or four months to do it. But we could not overcome the built-in
15:08racism and misogyny and the selfishness and the willingness of a lot of Americans,
15:16who I think, it's not about education. I mean, there are a lot of people I know that are very
15:20well educated that endorse Trump completely. It's more about, they don't care or they don't value
15:28the constitution and our democracy, what it truly means. Ben, thank you very much. And I'm sure we
15:35will be talking again soon. And really, I appreciate your time. Well, I always enjoy
15:39speaking with you and thank you for the privilege. Thank you.
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