00:00Thank you so much for joining us in this program, which will of course be covering information about the real estate market.
00:11And this time, we will be covering the third quarter financial report that has started to be released.
00:17There was a BCA yesterday, which was able to record that clean environment grew by more than 12%.
00:24Before we discuss the report, let's take a look at some of the global economic agendas.
00:28From IHK Malaysia, year-on-year, and also in September,
00:32then the initial unemployment of the United States and the IMF meeting.
00:36Let's switch to the EMI10 agenda.
00:40There is a payment of cash dividends from ALI, then also UNTR, AUTO,
00:45RUPS from ENAV, and also RUPS from AMAR.
00:50Let's see how the Asia Stock Exchange update this morning,
00:53and how the US Stock Exchange, which tends to weaken, is doing with Europe.
01:03Let's take a look at the Asia Nikkei update.
01:05The S&P 500 rose by 0.54%.
01:07Singapore's S&P 500 rose by 0.33%.
01:09Korea's S&P 500 fell by 0.35%.
01:11Hong Kong's S&P 500 rose by 1.27%.
01:23Yes, the live stream has been connected via video conference.
01:25There is Mr. Abdul Haq Al-Faruqi, who is an analyst from stocknow.id.
01:30Mr. Abdul, how are you?
01:33Hello, Ma'am Risa. I'm fine.
01:34Hello. Thank you for joining us this morning.
01:37Let's talk about the third quarter's energy.
01:402024, one of them is BCA, which yesterday released its energy.
01:44How do you feel about the increase of around 12%?
01:50For BCA, the clean energy growth rate is 12.8% at 41.1 trillion rupiah.
02:01This is more than expected,
02:05although if we look at the average growth rate in 9 months of 2024 and 5 years ago,
02:14the average was 15%.
02:16But the growth rate of 12.8% is more than expected
02:21given that the flower species in the past few years are still on the verge of extinction.
02:27If we look at the assumption,
02:30if we analyze it,
02:33the clean energy growth rate of BCA in 9 months is 76% in full year.
02:39With the clean energy growth rate in 2024,
02:43the clean energy growth rate in 2024 will reach 50.9 trillion rupiah.
02:49The clean energy growth rate of BCA is supported by several credit segments.
02:57The most prominent is the corporate segment,
03:01which dominates the clean energy growth rate of Emiten
03:06and supports the net interest income of Emiten.
03:10For the corporate credit network,
03:12it rose 15.9% to 395.9 trillion rupiah.
03:18And also from other segments,
03:21such as the commercial credit segment or small companies,
03:24it grew 11%.
03:26And the UMKM and KPR credit also experienced growth
03:30up to the renewable energy sector,
03:33which also experienced a growth of 214 trillion rupiah.
03:38So this is a positive thing for BCA Bank
03:41to be able to continue its growth
03:43given that the flow rate is transitioning from high to prolonged.
03:47And the Fed has created a drawfish decision,
03:52so it is very interesting for BCA to be projected
03:56to have a growth rate of 12.8% in 2024.
03:59So 12.8% is above expectations,
04:04it can be categorized like that.
04:07It's still quite good because it is supported by several credits,
04:10including corporate credit that grew 15.9% year-on-year,
04:15then commercial credit, 11.8%.
04:19Then NPL savings, 193.9%.
04:23How do you feel about this?
04:26Well, for NPL savings here,
04:28BCA Bank really manages
04:31how the credit is distributed by banks.
04:34Here, the NPL savings is up to 193.9%.
04:38That's two times more than NPL,
04:41which has the potential to experience a payment failure like that.
04:46Well, for this savings figure, it's very good,
04:50where the management is very ready to face NPL,
04:54which suddenly experienced a drawback
04:56or experienced a high increase
04:58when the NPL and the economy in Indonesia experienced a recession.
05:03Like that in the future.
05:05Because no one will know how the economy will move in the future
05:09if the macroeconomy is still in good condition.
05:13But if you look at this NPL savings up to almost 200%,
05:17don't you see that this tends to be very careful?
05:21What is BCA? Why is the savings quite high?
05:24Or is it normal?
05:28Well, for BCA Bank itself,
05:31the NPL itself is still categorized at a low level,
05:36but the savings is very high.
05:38Why? Because for now,
05:40the world economy and Indonesia's economy
05:43are still projected to grow,
05:46tend to stagnate at 5%.
05:48And also, for inflation in Indonesia,
05:51it does experience a deflation like that.
05:54Or from 5 months in a row, it experienced a deflation.
05:58So this indicates that there is a weak demand
06:01or demand from the public.
06:03So it worries BCA Bank for the distribution of credit like that.
06:08So in the long run,
06:11BCA Bank is very concerned about
06:14how the development of credit is distributed by the bank.
06:18Okay, I confirm again earlier,
06:20you said that the number is small, but it is high.
06:23What does it mean?
06:26Well, for the NPL from BCA Bank itself,
06:29it is in the range of 2% to 3% like that.
06:32And for the NPL savings, it is at 193.9%.
06:36Okay, so NPL 193.9% means an increase, right?
06:43Yes, that's right.
06:44For this NPL savings,
06:46how does the company manage
06:48or manage the risk of NPL?
06:52Actually, in terms of the amount, it's not too significant.
06:54But compared to the previous period,
06:56the increase is quite high, almost 200%.
06:59But the value is actually not too significant for BCA itself.
07:04Okay, what else needs to be highlighted from BCA Bank?
07:10For what we can highlight from BCA Bank,
07:14there are several things related to the growth of BCA Bank itself.
07:19Well, for the 9-month 2024,
07:22the growth is at 25.8%.
07:26While, I'm sorry, I mean at 12.8%.
07:30While in 2023, in the 9-month,
07:33it only reached 25.8%.
07:36So this is an indication that
07:39when the ratio is high,
07:41the demand for credit from the corporation or the MSME segment
07:44has decreased nominally.
07:46Although it is noted that the growth is year-on-year.
07:52We talked about this earlier.
07:54And also for the future,
07:57in 2025, of course,
07:59when we look at macro economic data,
08:01such as the potential benefits of Indonesian banks,
08:04the Fed, as large as 100 basis points in 2025,
08:07this will be a fresh wind for market players
08:10and also business players to make greater credit to BCA Bank.
08:15So the potential for expansion and the MSME segment is still very wide for BCA Bank.
08:20Next, for the growth of DPK to the network trading,
08:23it will also be a catalyst for supporting the increase of BCA Bank's shares
08:28at the time that the closure of Suku Bunga in 2025 happened as expected.
08:33Okay.
08:34What is your recommendation for BCA Bank at this time?
08:39Well, for BCA Bank now,
08:41it is moving sideways after hitting its all-time high at the level of around 10,950.
08:50And for my recommendation, it is still very bullish for BCA Bank itself.
08:55Here, the target is to reach the level of 11,100 to 11,600 by the end of 2024.
09:0311,500 to 11,600.
09:0611,500 at this time at 10,650 means there are still around 900 points, right?
09:15Sorry, ma'am. 11,100 to 11,600.
09:1811,100.
09:20Okay, that's it.
09:21The target is still very attractive by the end of the year.
09:23And you said that BCA Bank hit its highest record in the last three months, 10,950.
09:29But you actually target 11,500 to 11,600.
09:3411,500 to 11,600 means another record and higher than the 10,950 that was achieved three months ago.
09:41The recommendation at this time, at the closing yesterday, 10,650, is it good or better?
09:47Is the strategy bullish or what?
09:51Well, for friends who don't have BCA Bank yet, I still recommend it well.
09:55Because here, my conviction towards BCA Bank is very high.
10:01And also for the growth of the full year, this is still very positive for BCA Bank itself.
10:07So the recommendation is very interesting for BCA Bank.
10:11Is there a strong hold from you for investors who want to hold at least until the end of the year?
10:17How strong is the hold that must be respected?
10:21Well, for investors who really want to buy or maybe average down like that,
10:27for BCA Bank, the area that can be respected is the market share at the school level for BCA Bank.
10:45For BCA Bank itself, the level is quite crucial at 10,000 to 10,150.
10:51If we look at it technically, the area becomes an area where BCA Bank experiences a pullback or rebound that has happened several times.
11:01So here it can be a buy-sell area for market players.
11:0610,000 to 10,150, which is the stronghold for the last month.
11:11That's the lowest level in the last month.
11:13And usually the pullback is there.
11:15Okay, those are the smooth levels that you highlight.
11:18Later we will discuss for other emitters whether the release of BCA Bank, Mr. Abdul,
11:24also reflects the other banking activities that will be released.
11:30What is your analysis? Besides BCA Bank, are there any other under-recommendations?
11:33And earlier, Unilever has also released its activities.
11:36Later we will continue with the selection.
11:38Stay tuned on Market Plus.
