Analyzing NBA MVP Favorites and Betting Odds Insights

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00:00MVP, Luke is the favorite SGA not far behind.

00:06Jokic is in the same tier as those guys.

00:08And then it kind of drops down Giannis and Tatum.

00:12I have a bet that was placed in the preseason Brunson

00:14in that mix as well.

00:16On Victor Webinyama at 50 to one,

00:18which is awesome because it's 20 to one.

00:22Now the trick is kind of winning the bet, right?

00:25Like I knew I was going to beat that number

00:26even if it started at 50 to one,

00:28because Victor Webinyama in the advanced box score metrics

00:31that are actually more predictive

00:33than people will probably want to believe for winning MVP.

00:39He's going to be top five in.

00:40So I knew that that 50 to one was a good number.

00:44The issue though now is actually winning the bet.

00:48Now, in order to win the bet,

00:50I don't think Wemby has to do as much

00:52as a lot of the other guys, right?

00:54Like Luke and SGA probably gonna have to be

00:56the one seed in the West.

00:57Yoke, which would have to be the one seed in the West

00:59or something along those lines, right?

01:01That's the argument that if you actually take a look

01:03at the first one, two, three, four, five, six, seven guys,

01:08all the guys, if you look at the guys,

01:09that's kind of perfect, right?

01:10All the guys in front of Wemby,

01:12the whole thing is like,

01:14we have to win 55 games at a minimum and be great

01:18for Brunson, Tatum and all those guys.

01:20Wemby probably has to win 42 games.

01:23There'll be 20 more wins.

01:25Have the best defense in basketball.

01:28You know what I wonder if the biggest block is

01:32in getting this thing for Wemby

01:34is if he wins MVP this year.

01:37Can Victor Webanyama sweep the awards?

01:40Can Vic go out there and win MVP and DPOY

01:44and maybe a most improved in his sophomore season?

01:50Again, 50 to one's a good number.

01:52I'll probably be willing to cash out.

01:55I will be surprised if it is not Luka or SGA.

01:57I'm in on both of those basketball teams

01:59to varying degrees.

02:01I think they're the two best teams

02:02in the Western Conference.

02:03I think they're two of the five best teams in the NBA.

02:07And based on every single thing that I'm lined up here,

02:12based on all the typical criteria to win this award,

02:15I will be pretty surprised if it is not Luka Doncic

02:18or Shea Gilgis-Alexander.

02:20I mentioned events of player of the year,

02:21so let's just kind of hit that right now

02:24with Vic as the favorite at minus 155,

02:27one of the strongest favorites we've seen

02:29to win an award for quite some time.

02:31Well, it's justified, but I'm not betting it.

02:37I would not bet minus 155.

02:39Now, if you look, Wemby last season finished second

02:43in the race, he finished second in the race

02:48despite being on a 22-win team in his rookie season

02:54that had a bottom 10 defense.

02:57He finished second in defense player of the year.

03:01That's why I kind of feel like anybody,

03:02betting anybody else also feels a bit of a waste.

03:05It's to me a bit of a dead market.

03:07Now, if Wemby Nyama was injured,

03:09which would be unfortunate, but if he was,

03:11obviously it's open season.

03:12If he couldn't meet the 65 game minimum.

03:15The guys that stood out to me were Chet Holmgren,

03:17Bam Rabaio, yes, the next two options,

03:20but I think both of those teams with their defense,

03:22with the way that they rely on Chet Holmgren and Bam Rabaio

03:25will actively be in those races, as well as Anthony Davis.

03:29I do think there's a desire from JJ Redick

03:31to get him in the mix on those awards

03:36and to, or excuse me, to be a defensive anchor

03:40for that basketball team.

03:41And if he's successful in doing so,

03:43look for AD to be in that conversation.

03:46And at 31 to one, you're clipping

03:49what is I think still a pretty good number.

03:51Another big man centric award is Zach Eadie.

03:53He is now the plus 290 favorite to win rookie of the year.

03:57Another spot where pre-season

03:58I was able to make the right judgment.

04:00I don't know.

04:01I know that doesn't do anything for you guys now,

04:03but I have to let you know where I'm starting

04:04so you understand where I'm going.

04:06On draft night, put in some Zach Eadie 20 to one.

04:11Yeah, plus 2000 to win the rookie of the year.

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