00:00A new commission, a new European Parliament and a new US administration.
00:13What does this all mean for the future of Europe?
00:15I chat to Jakob Kirtgaarden on The Europe Conversation.
00:19So Jakob, we're coming into a new commission, a new European Parliament and I want to start
00:26off with the Middle East because obviously this week we had the anniversary of the 7th
00:30of October Hamas attack.
00:32With that we've seen horrendous conditions in Gaza as a result of the Israeli response
00:37and also a widened regional spread of war.
00:41What implications does this have for Europe?
00:44Well I think the short answer is that in economic terms, unfortunately the implications for
00:49Europe really resides on the risk of escalation, aka that Israel may or may not choose to
00:56strike the Iranian oil sector.
00:59Iran may then retaliate and oil may rise significantly in price.
01:04That's really the economic risk.
01:06Politically, for the EU, I think we have seen over the last number of many months in fact
01:12that obviously this is a conflict that retains this ability to mobilize significant segments
01:19of European populations.
01:20It varies from country to country.
01:23What you lack basically for the EU is of course unity.
01:27One of the charges levelled against the EU in relation to this is double standards.
01:32That there isn't the same support or empathy for the Palestinians as there is for Ukrainians.
01:39And that has impacted the EU's reputation within the global south, something that Brussels
01:44has been trying to garner support for when it comes to the war in Ukraine.
01:49How do you see this playing out?
01:51I think it is true.
01:53I think it is important for Europeans to recognize that while we clearly view the conflict in
01:58Ukraine as the first existential armed conflict really threatening the military security of
02:05Europe arguably since World War II in some ways, or certainly since the end of the Cold
02:11War, and therefore we view that rightfully in my opinion as an existential crisis.
02:17But in the eyes of the global south, who do not fear imminent invasion by Russia, well
02:24it's just quote unquote another regional conflict.
02:27So that we in Europe, but also in the broader G7, are sort of trying to actively solicit
02:34their support for Ukraine for what in their eyes is a regional conflict while we, again
02:39in their eyes, are ignoring not just the Israel-Palestine conflict, but many other regional conflicts,
02:46armed conflicts across the global south.
02:50Yes, in their eyes that's clearly hypocrisy.
02:53And I think, again, if you look from where they come, they have a point.
02:58So we see it as an existential crisis, yet at the same time we hear from the Ukrainians,
03:03from President Zelensky, we don't have enough weapons.
03:07Our soldiers are on the front line and they're suffering for the want of weapons.
03:11But I think there's no doubt that Ukraine continues to fight a very determined and very
03:18much larger neighbor in Russia.
03:21So they are inherently the underdog, if you can put it that way.
03:25They have received very significant amounts of financial and military support from the
03:29West.
03:30But the war is entering now, it's well into its third year, and there are concerns.
03:36Not just with the upcoming US presidential election, but also domestic politics in many
03:40European countries.
03:41Is this sustainable?
03:42I think the good news, in my opinion, is that I believe in Europe, with the clear exception
03:47of Hungary, possibly Slovakia, but let's put it this way, all the countries in Europe with
03:53real money and military capabilities are strongly behind Ukraine.
03:59I suspect that situation will persist, precisely because we do have to view this conflict as
04:06an existential one, because I think it is naive to assume that if Russia were to prevail
04:13in Ukraine, that they would, quote-unquote, just stop at those four provinces that they
04:18have already annexed.
04:19But at the same time, we've heard from President Zelensky, he has his vision for ending the
04:25war, his victory plan, which he presented at the United Nations General Assembly, at
04:29Ramstein in Germany to NATO allies.
04:32And the response has been tepid.
04:35There's no complete embrace of this response from the United States, which hasn't said
04:40it can give support for, for example, the use of long-range weapons into Russian territory.
04:46We've heard Chancellor Schultz saying Germany would never agree to that.
04:49And what we do know of the plan is that it's very offensive.
04:53So it doesn't appear that the allies are, you know, four square behind Zelensky on this.
04:59I think you need to have Russia put under military pressure.
05:05And I think that is really what this plan strives to do.
05:09That will require, clearly in the eyes of, you know, President Zelensky and the Ukrainian
05:15government, the ability to strike strategic targets with Western weapons deep in Russian
05:21territory.
05:22Clearly, as you mentioned, the U.S. government, the German government do not see it that way.
05:27But there are other European governments, including those who have delivered F-16s and
05:32other missiles, long-range missile to them, that actually are in favor of it.
05:36So we will see where we end up.
05:39And I think it should also be mentioned, and I think this is again one of these areas which
05:43at least gives me a relatively high degree of optimism, actually, about Ukraine's ability
05:50to ultimately prevail, which is the growth of Ukraine's domestic military industrial
05:55complex and capabilities, where we have seen in recent weeks and months the rising use
06:02of accurate long-range drone strikes by Ukraine on, you know, Russian ammunition depots, energy
06:11storage facilities, et cetera.
06:13At the 75th anniversary of NATO in Washington, D.C., Ukraine was told there was an indestructible
06:18bridge towards membership, not quite membership, but no timeline.
06:23Do you think Ukraine will become a member of NATO, or do you foresee that it may have
06:29to give up NATO membership, at least in the short to medium term, in order to negotiate
06:35Russia leaving its territory?
06:37I think they will become a member of NATO.
06:41But I think it is arguably more important for Ukraine that they become a member of the
06:45EU, because I think that ultimately Ukraine will prevail in this war, meaning that they
06:53are able to deter Russian aggression, even without being a member of NATO, provided that
07:01they have access to ongoing Western financial and military support, which in principle they
07:07could have without being a member of NATO.
07:11What matters for Ukraine, however, in the long run, is money financing to rebuild the
07:17economy and full integration with the EU, so that they can completely turn their back,
07:23which is clearly what they want, to any links in the energy sector and otherwise with Russia.
07:29That requires, in my opinion, full EU membership in the relatively near to medium term, meaning...
07:37Like 2030?
07:38Yeah, early 2030s.
07:40And this ironically also, in my opinion, would prove a much bigger long-term threat
07:47to Vladimir Putin and indeed the entire Russian regime, because what this would provide Ukraine
07:53was an opportunity to become, I would argue, a fast-growing market economy-based democracy
08:01fully anchored in the EU, clearly showing the Russian population that, you know what,
08:06there is an alternative to the autocracy perpetrated on them by Vladimir Putin and
08:11his likely successors.
08:12Do you not think countries like Hungary will go out of their way to block Ukraine's accession
08:19every step of the way, which we've seen so far?
08:22Viktor Orban will try to curry favour with his true political masters, which are, in
08:28my opinion, in Moscow and increasingly also in Beijing.
08:33He may try that, but ultimately we are now seeing the growth of, you know, domestic opposition
08:39parties in Hungary.
08:42If we manage, by the rest of the EU, to continue the financial squeeze on Hungary through the
08:49budget, I think, you know, at the end of the day, and again we're talking maybe 10 years,
08:56for the final decision for Ukrainian membership to be taken, it is not clear that the Hungarian
09:02regime, if I may use that word, is act, just have that level of longevity, given the domestic
09:08developments and ongoing, I hope, economic pressure that he will face within the EU.
09:13And you say political paymasters, do you mean because of the investment Beijing and Moscow
09:19have in Hungary?
09:20No, I don't, I mean, I think it is clear that Hungary, having clearly written off, I would
09:26argue, many of the currently frozen and future transfers from the EU.
09:34What have they done instead?
09:35Clearly with regard, they continue to elicit Russian energy imports, including building
09:43a new nuclear power plant.
09:45With the case of China, he has signed, among other things, clearly, in my opinion, to continue
09:52to offer a, if you like, uniquely politically preferred destination for Chinese investment
09:59in the EU, a security treaty with China that allows Chinese police officers to patrol with
10:08Hungarian police officers on the streets of Hungary.
10:12That is something that no other EU member can offer, and may, in fact, choose to, maybe
10:18the deciding political factor when the Chinese, quote-unquote, private companies or state-owned
10:24companies choose where to locate their investments.
10:27Just final question before I let you go, because we have about three weeks to go to the US
10:31election.
10:32What are your predictions?
10:33And, you know, regardless of who wins, do you think that Europe is on its way to de-risk
10:40from its relationship with the United States, or is that just impossible, at least for the
10:44short term?
10:45Yeah, I think it is, in the short term, in a military sense, it is clearly impossible.
10:48I mean, NATO without a fully committed United States is just not NATO.
10:53At the same time, I think the fact, irrespective of who wins, the fact that a candidate like
10:58Donald Trump might be re-elected, I mean, he could actually win and be re-elected, in
11:04my opinion, clearly casts doubt about the long-term viability of, or the value, if you
11:10like, of NATO's Article 5.
11:13So irrespective of who wins, Europe doesn't have any choice other than to do what some
11:18of the things that was in the Draghi report as well, to achieve a much higher degree of
11:23self-sufficiency in military, national security issues.
11:28The EU can only achieve that if we manage to fully integrate Ukraine into the European
11:35economies, because we're already seeing the growth of domestic Ukrainian weapons production.
11:40If they have an existing military industrial complex, they will become, I think, the arsenal
11:47of the EU.
11:48Okay, Jakob Kirkgaard, Senior Fellow at Bruegel, thank you very much for joining us on The
11:53Europe Conversation.
11:54My pleasure.
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